chpettit19

I like the Polanco comp, and it'd be amazing if he reaches anywhere close to Polanco's career. I also see a lot of Brooks Lee in him. Even their swings look similar. Probably too big to stick at SS, but have the arm and general talent to move to 3B/2B and succeed. Good contact skills and pitch recognition, but questions on just how much power they'll develop. Salas with more speed at this point, though. If Salas ends this season in AA as a 20 year old it'd certainly be worthy of a top 10 system ranking, and even worthy of the top 3 or 4 system ranking Fangraphs appears to have for him. He's hard to rank in this list because we just have so much more knowledge about the other guys as we've been following them far more closely. 19 years old and holding his own in A+ is nothing to sneeze at, though. You're talking about only a handful of guys a year who do that. That's a legit prospect.

Another thing about discussions on the balanced schedule is that people tend to make it sound like all the games against the Royals and Tigers are turning into games against the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. We don't get to play the crappy teams in our division as much, but we get to play the crappy teams in other divisions more. The Athletic did a pretty nice deep dive into the new schedule last week, and the difference in strength of schedule is pretty minimal. Using last year's team records on the new schedule has the Guardians, Dodgers, White Sox, and Padres as the 4 teams with the most additional games against winning teams. The Guardians at 14, Dodgers 11, and Sox and Pads at 8 games. But the Guardians and Dodgers still rank in the top 5 easiest schedules with just a .007 increase in opponent winning percentage. The new schedule isn't nearly as dramatic as people are acting.

I like them playing the Astros and Yankees early. Get them out of the way early, and hopefully the team is healthy for the most part which will give them a fighters chance to win a few games against them. Play roughly .500 ball against those 2 clubs in April in addition to hopefully beating up on the Marlins, Nats, and Royals could put this team in a great place early. Not that that means a lot as we saw last year. But it's better than being in a terrible spot early. As terrible as it is to say, let's just get through April healthy and see where we're at.

I mean your stance is basically that no Rice pitchers should ever be drafted. I strongly disagree with the "Lewis in CF was a mistake stance." He was no longer rehabbing an ACL. He was fine. This idea that CF is somehow inherently dangerous is preposterous and based on no actual information (news flash: SS's put stress on their knees too, and even jump for balls sometimes!). Kirilloff's wrist seemed awfully ok when he was in AAA absolutely raking. You can't add Lewis or Kirilloff into the Paddack or Mahle trades. Nobody knew Dyson was injured so that's purely revisionist history to fit your narrative. They didn't bring Lewis and Kirilloff in knowing they had injury concerns. You're just taking injuries and saying the Twins should've known guys would get injured. Paddack and Mahle are entirely different than Lewis and Kirilloff. Even Canterino was different in that he threw 96, 94, and 99.1 innings in his 3 seasons at Rice. That shows an arm that can hold up, but wasn't ridiculous usage by a college pitcher by any means. Also, you've listed 6 guys in 7 years they've been in control. That's less than 1 per year, but somehow that's a "pattern of lack of awareness about injury and conditioning." That's literally what the article points out. Confirmation bias. You're going to have to do a whole lot more than point out 6 guys, 3 of which don't even remotely fit your attempted narrative, in 7 years before it's a pattern. "Seems" is the key word here. The Twins got hit hard by major league injuries last year, and to an extent in 2021. No arguing that didn't happen. But is their minor league system being hit harder than other team's, or does it just "seem" that way? And, no, I don't agree it's on the Twins to reset "unreasonable takes/narratives." Like I don't understand that in any way. "Hey, I'm being unreasonable, but you need to fix it, not me" is an unreasonable stance. It makes no sense at all. Nobody is saying you have to praise the Twins or the FO or pretend the team hasn't failed the last 2 seasons, and the last 2 decades in general in the postseason. But being reasonable about it is an option. It's also squarely, 100% impossible for the Minnesota Twins to reset the narrative of every fan. You're trying to claim the Twins ignore injuries and are mad about it. These pages are filled with other fans mad the Twins aren't clearing the way for Larnach and Kirilloff and Winder and Ober. It's literally impossible for the Twins to fit both of those narratives. But that's your unreasonable expectation. So, yeah, I'm going to say at least some of it is on fans putting a little more thought into things and not being unreasonable.

I follow that flawless explanation crystal clear! 😄 I do understand where you're coming from, and agree that I want information before I hand my money over for anything. Where we disagree is on what information is needed from a sports team before we feel like we have enough information. And that's completely ok. I don't need to know their plan for making the team better, or getting their players healthy. I just need to know what the roster is (I'm smart enough to know if the roster is good or bad), and that the players are healthy enough to play. Them telling me Buxton spent 3 hours with the trainer doing treatment I know nothing about that day doesn't change anything for my investment in their product that day, but knowing he's playing, and where, does. Them telling me the offseason plan is to sign players X, Y, and Z for certain salaries while trading player A for player B doesn't change anything for my investment in their product the upcoming season, but them actually acquiring players X, Y, and Z and trading player A for player B (and me feeling players X, Y, Z, and B are good) does. You, and clearly others as well, want to know more. And that's fine. There's probably a line somewhere between us that the team should be focused on to bring in as many fans as possible while not sharing more info than they have to. That's the great balancing act of every business with their consumers.

The quote about not being transparent was about civic leaders. But the Twins were also "transparent" about their offers to Correa. Certain fans want even more than that, though. That's what this current discussion is about. They want "the plan." The information "we" get will never be enough for some people. And that just is what it is. This "debate/conversation" will never end. Because there's no end to the amount of information certain fans think they're entitled to. Even if that information being made public would hinder their team's ability to be competitive they still want it released. They feel they deserve to know about all the behind the scenes stuff. So they'll continually ask for more and more. I just find that ridiculous.

I followed, I just wanted to talk about Lewis and brag about one of the things I was finally right about!

I've been driving the Lewis bandwagon since that AFL performance. I was calling for him to be on the opening day roster all last off season because I expected him to come out firing since he was healthy again. I'm not quite that high on Martin, but am feeling much better about him after watching his swing in the AFL and seeing him really attack the ball. I plan on getting to some early Saints games to watch Martin there. Hoping he makes it hard to keep him there long with a similar performance!

I'm not seeing the connection here. So he got in better shape and that means he won't hit for power now? It sounds like he ate better and worked out more. Not sure how that equals the Twins taking away his power. He openly admitted he wore down at the end of the year and needed to be in better shape. I could argue that him slimming down and being in better shape will improve his power numbers because he'll be able to sustain his performance better over the course of a full season. And if he can play 3B well he can shift over to 1B when the time comes and be good enough there. Mass<>Power. Strength and/or bat speed= power. Byron Buxton doesn't have a whole lot of mass to him, but he sure can hit for some power.

I, too, am happy with the AFL results, and really hope they translate to AAA, and, eventually, the bigs, this year. He retains all his potential, but the likelihood he reaches it has taken a huge hit. Hoping he lights Fort Myers on fire and we can have a better feeling about him heading to St Paul this year. But a healthy dose of skepticism is awfully reasonable at this point. I can give you a real basic timeline on the changes. He hit with the "original" stance all season until he was hurt towards the end. When he came back his hands were higher and his leg was cocked more (the 3rd stance shown). His good final month, and great AFL, were with the new stance. The awful majority of his season was with the old stance. Now that doesn't mean he hadn't been putting in work behind the scenes to change different things all season and we just saw the hands at the end. Or any number of things that could've been going on. But that new hand and leg positioning didn't appear until the end of the year when he returned from injury. But, like you said, we are simply making inferences upon assumptions upon speculation about what lead to that change. I was simply pushing back on this idea that the Twins coaches screwed him up like Buxton (and I've now seen claims they screwed up Lewis) and the Twins coaches need to just leave guys alone and quit trying to make them all sluggers. The assumption made by some is that he failed last year because the coaches wanted him to be a slugger. My contention is that they weren't trying to make him a slugger, but were trying to get him to more have some power. Which is what every team does with every hitter. I'm pushing back on the idea that the Twins were trying to get him to be a 30+ HR guy at the expense of his BA. That wasn't their goal. The goal was to keep his BA and get him to 15-20 HRs a year. Cuz then he's an all star. I'd bet Martin was on board with that plan. Development isn't linear. Maybe it took a year of struggles and tweaks to finally find the right recipe. Who knows? But the idea that the Twins just want everyone to hit 30 bombs and don't care about BA simply isn't correct and that's what I was refuting. They just want players to get as close to their full potential as possible.

I think them continuing to promote him, and giving him 5 starts in the bigs in what was just his 2nd full professional season, says they're going with his results. The article didn't say he "can't pitch" because of his lack of "stuff," it said it can create a ceiling for him. Which is true. Doesn't mean he can't improve his "stuff," though. He's improved it this far, and will continue to work to improve it more. A 15th round pick becoming a #3 type starter in the bigs is a gigantic win. Even if his "stuff" limits him to being a #3 starter it's still not a suggestion that he "can't pitch." It's just that he won't ever be Verlander or deGrom. Which very few are. And, FYI, Smoltz threw gas, I think you're thinking of Greg Maddux who didn't throw real hard in his Atlanta days, but he did have filthy "stuff." His secondary pitches were significantly better than Varland's, and his control was maybe the best baseball has ever seen.

I think the key to looking at AFL stats is comparing them to the other top hitting prospects in the league. Him slugging nearly .500 shouldn't make us think he's going to slug like that in the majors, but seeing him be top 15 in the AFL in slugging should make us feel a little better about his ability to hit the ball with authority. Martin and Julien were at, or near, the top of the leader boards in a lot of the AFL offensive categories. Absolutely shouldn't think their actual numbers translate, but should be encouraging that they were a couple of the top performers amongst some big name prospects there.

Sorry, mine got long, too... Yeah, as a couple people already pointed out, I disagree with the stance that we're treated any different by sports franchises than our civic leaders (you really think they're telling the truth?), employers, the businesses we purchase from, or the places we bank. Civic leaders lie to us constantly. Campaigning is literally just them telling whatever segment of the population they want to vote for them what that segment wants to hear. They aren't transparent with a gosh darn thing. Unless you're running the company there's a who lot you aren't told about the behind the scenes of a company. Your employers don't tell you anything you don't need to know. Businesses we buy from? They literally have patents and copywrites so that we don't know what their "secret recipes" are. Corporate secrecy is the key to a whole bunch of the businesses we buy from. I work hand in hand with Amazon everyday and they won't tell me how they make decisions on anything. Banks give you the baseline of what you need to know about your account, but they're not giving us details about how the bank is run or their business strategies. I think the difference between those things and sports is that some fans feel they're personally owed information about the athletes and teams because they build that emotional connection. Same reason some people are so enamored with the personal lives of celebrities. They build an imagined connection with them through their art (music, movies, whatever) and decide that means they're owed more information. People being irrational about "their teams" doesn't mean the organizations owe us information on what Byron Buxton is doing for rehab everyday. It doesn't mean we're privy to Correa's ankle imaging. We're kept in the dark about the main going ons of everything you've listed, but then you expect sports teams to be open because people grow overly attached to grown men playing a game. I don't buy it. The information some fans are asking for is absolutely not known by the other teams. The other teams have general ideas about things, but they all have their own proprietary data and info. Giving out the medical information on a player just because fans want to know would give the other team an advantage. Rocco saying "Buxton is sitting on this day, this day, and this day, and Correa is sitting this day" allows the other manager to manage his pitching accordingly. Why would we want that? Telling the fans what their offseason strategy is would cost them a great deal of leverage in trade and contract negotiations. Why would we want that? My argument would be that the internet, 24 hr "news cycle," and the constant leaking of information has lead fans to believe they're "owed" more and more. We're not. Byron Buxton doesn't owe me his treatment regiment. It's ridiculous to me to suggest that's information I deserve, or even need. The Twins don't owe me their offseason game plan. It's ridiculous to me to suggest that's information I deserve, or even need. What we're "owed" is the player and team's best efforts to provide an entertaining product on the field. That's what we pay them for. But my definition of entertaining is different than yours which is different than everyone else's. Just like Coke "owes" us a tasty beverage. That's what we pay them for. But my definition of tasty is different than yours which is different than everyone else's. We aren't owed the secret recipe, the business plan, or the health status of their employees.

Yeah, fans are generally just going to feel however they want to feel no matter what the team says. If they say something against the fan's thought process they say it's just spin. The forced pressers everyday are an interesting phenomenon. I don't think they're productive. Especially in a sport that plays nearly everyday. How much could change day to day? Eventually their statements are the exact same thing everyday. "If he can play he'll play, if he can't he won't, if he's in the middle he'll DH." But the reporters had to ask every day. Then fans get cranky that Rocco didn't Mr Miyagi his knee.

On July 14th Buxton was on pace to play 130 games. They told us immediately that there was no structural damage and he returned less than a week later. Then they told us they were going to manage his workload as he was recovering. And he didn't miss anymore real stretches of time. What updates were they supposed to give? His knee was bothering him, but he was still playing. They told us time and time again that he was receiving treatment and days off and/or DH days was what was called for/their plan. I seriously don't understand why fans think teams should give them all this information. What teams are giving this out? Are NFL teams, NBA teams, NHL teams, any teams giving day-to-day updates on treatment? Or when a player is literally playing the games giving status updates? I mean he had played nearly 80% of the team's games on July 14th. We're making it sound like he wasn't there and Rocco wasn't answering questions about him every time he was DHing instead of playing CF.

Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and disagree with that paraphrased quote and say it's pretty useless. It's unreasonable to have expected them to know Lewis would blow out his knee walking or Kirilloff's wrist would require a super rare surgery that almost no pro athlete ever has to go through. And before anyone says "they shouldn't have put him in CF where he'd have to jump" I'll go ahead and ask if NBA players should just retire when they tear an ACL and never jump again. You're allowed to be mad at them for such things, but it feels awfully unreasonable to me. While I agree that results are all that matter I find it pretty hard to blame them for Kirilloff's wrist, Lewis' knee, or Canterino's arm. Canterino going to Rice is the only sort of thing you can point to there as they're well known for pitchers going pro and breaking down. Fans being mad that those 3 guys all had those injury problems has absolutely everything to do with the fans. Fans are allowed to step back and say "dang, that sucks, but it's unrealistic to expect any FO to know that 3 guys are going to lose season after season to injuries like this." That's allowed. The team seems to have learned after back to back seasons of their top prospects getting hurt that they can't rely on them and have loaded up on veterans at Larnach, Kirilloff, and Lewis' positions. So now other, and some of the same, fans are mad that they aren't clearing the way for the young guys. That's another reason I question what they're supposed to say and do. They've been bad at reclamation project, big league pitching decisions. I stipulated that. But fans are allowed to separate things and say "the FO has been bad at this, good at that, and unlucky over here." You don't lose your fan card by being nuanced. And the FO can't say something that will please all fans. And they can't be expected to explain everything to fans and give away their strategies and player information.

"On a day-to-day basis" is the point of that sentence the way I read it. I read the OP as the author saying that the lack of constant updates was what frustrated fans, not that there were never updates.

"Martin regressed when the coaches tinkered to improve his power" "Looks like his hips are more rotated (loaded) and lead elbow up/bat back all as an effort for more efficient power generation." I'm confused on why the assumption is that the coaches tinkering made him regress when his stance and swing were the same as in college, but when it was different "as an effort for more efficient power generation" it wasn't coach tinkering. Do you have information that the swing adjustments weren't from the Twins coaches? Nobody suggested a "one size fits all" strategy. But "good coaching" is about getting the most out of the player, not just "leaving them alone" as has been suggested here by many people. Him having no power and just being a high OBP with solid speed is totally ok. The coaches, and him, never trying to be more than that isn't. None of us have any inside information on how the coaching went with him. We don't know that he wasn't refusing to make adjustments because he was hurt or happy with who he was in college and then decided to listen to the coaches after his season was going terribly. We don't know if he said "screw the coaches I'm doing it my way" when the season was going terribly. But his swing and stance were the same in college, when he first got here, and at the beginning of this year. Then they changed and he performed to the level the Twins were hoping he would. It's weird to me that you type one comment suggesting that he shouldn't be tinkered with and then point out that he changed his stance for more power and that stance lead to more power. He tinkered and found success.

I think their MLB decisions have been less than stellar, and they should acknowledge that. I think their development decisions have actually been quite good, but that's where the luck has killed them. If Canterino were fronting this rotation, and Lewis and Kirilloff were penciled into the middle of the order I'd think the narrative on the FO would be very different. Those are 3 hard luck examples where it looks like they got it right with those guys, but the baseball gods had different ideas about their bodies holding up. But the decisions made at the MLB level have looked much worse. The pitching decisions especially. Pagan standing out right now. I don't know what a realistic statement from a FO about such things is, though. "Things didn't work out as we'd planned, and we'll adjust things to hopefully make better decisions in the future" sounds about as realistic as possible. What else are they supposed to say?

I'm curious about Lewis being mentioned here. Are there reports that Lewis changed his swing without the help of Twins staff? I know there were plenty of reports about Buxton finally saying "f it" in the offseason and going back to his old HS swing, but Lewis had a big leg kick in HS that the Twins actually didn't mess with early. Weren't the reports that Lewis was putting in a ton of work with the Twins staff at the alternate site in 2020 and that's where those swing changes came from? And he did all his rehab at the Twins facility so I'd think Twins staff had a hand in the toe-tap swing changes we saw last year. But it is entirely possible that I just missed some reports about him doing things his own way so I'm curious if you have some info on that.

Definitely agree the AFL picture is a very different stance. Now, obviously much more goes into his swing mechanics, etc. than his stance, but I'm not going to take the time to breakdown video and send snippets of them from different times of his career. But when it comes to the talk of the Twins tinkering with his swing, it looks to me like his AFL swing that produced the desired results was not the same as his Vandy swing so it could be argued that the Twins actually did fix him in some way. I think his wrist feeling better would also be a big part of it, though. I remember Keith Law being really concerned about him going into last season because he'd gotten so passive and his swing got so "slappy" (due to a number of mechanical concerns) that he didn't know that he'd ever be able to hit the ball with real authority, and he thought his wrist injury had lead him down that path. Perhaps once the wrist was feeling better he took time during his late season missed game situation to make a few adjustments and that's what we saw in the AFL. No idea if those were changes the Twins pushed for or he just did it on his own, though. I also can not confirm nor deny the hair being the cause of all his struggles 😄

Welcome to Twins Daily!

Really, really, really basic look at things done very quickly, but here's pics of his setup at Vandy, when he first got to the Twins, and in the AFL:

The team did say that about Buxton. On multiple occasions Rocco talked about how much time Buxton had to put in to just be able to walk around normal let alone run, hit, and throw. They talked about a lot of his treatment, actually. Told us about the platelet-rich plasma injections. Told us about his MRI on his hip. “It’s been a strenuous, truly 24-hour-a-day job for him to take the field each day. That’s what he deals with and he’s open to dealing with that every day. There are days where walking is not easy and he ends up playing in the game that day, and as a whole playing well.” -Rocco Baldelli July 14th

I think the argument is against the people on the website. It's the same stance I have. I mean this thread is full of people literally arguing that the Twins should straight up leave Martin alone and make no attempt to have his power increased. It's a terrible argument that suggests the Twins should never try to improve players. It seems to come from a place of people on this site putting people in the Arraez bucket or Sano bucket. Either you're high BA/OBP and no power or you're high power and low BA/OBP. That's a false narrative. The Twins weren't trying to turn Martin into a power hitter at the expense of his BA/OBP. They were trying to add power to his BA/OBP. Literally every team does this with literally every hitter. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But "leave him alone" is a terrible argument. I don't think the Twins are saying that, and I don't think Martin is saying it. But people here are and that's what the argument is.