chpettit19

I think it's disappointing because those OBP numbers are likely impossible to maintain as he moves up the ladder if he can't hit higher than .241 and/or slug more than .317. Major league pitchers won't walk him at the kind of rates he'd need to be walked to be a useful player if he's only hitting .241 with no power. That's the disappointing part. What it means for his projections if he can't hit better than .241. He won't get on base at those clips against major league pitchers if he can't impact the ball significantly better than he did during most of the season. That's why the AFL stint was so encouraging. There were 32 qualified major leaguers with an OBP of .350 or higher last year. The lowest batting average amongst them was .242 by Juan Soto. But he slugged .452, is a feared MLB star, and is known for having one of the best eyes in the history of baseball (his 20.3% walk rate last year is astronomical. For reference, Martin was at 11.8% in AA). The next lowest BA was .252 for Christian Yelich. The average OPS for that group was .846. Average BA for that group was .289. So I think it's pretty reasonable to call him hitting .241 and OPSing .683 in AA disappointing. Edited to add: None of that means he's doomed or we should give up on him. Simply that he did have a disappointing season.

I think Andrew Benintendi is a really good comp for Martin. I think 2022 Andrew Benintendi (with more steals) is his best case scenario if he doesn't develop more power. Most definitely a useful player, but not the sort of star you're hoping for out of the #5 pick. But Benintendi was the 7th pick in his draft, and an even higher ranked global prospect than Martin. 2018 Benintendi, and the trajectory people thought he was on, is closer to the top end of where Martin could be. But if he ends up being a slightly faster Benintendi I think we should, and would, be very happy. 2018 Benintendi (23 years old): 148 games played, 16 HRS, .290/.366/.465/.830, 123 OPS+ and 4.8 bWAR, 123 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR 2022 Benintendi (27 years old): 126 games played, 5 HRS, .304/.373/.399/.772, 120 OPS+ and 3.2 bWAR, 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR If Martin turns into a 3-5 WAR/year player I'll be very happy to have him on the squad.

I was a huge fan of Martin coming out of Vandy, and him being part of the Berrios trade made that move sting a little less. I think Keith Law was onto something when he was worried about Martin's injury with Toronto changing his approach too dramatically to the "slap it the other way" approach. The swings he was letting off in the AFL looked far better than the swings he'd been showing when he came over from Toronto, and to start last year. There was a very clear change in his stance, and he looked to be attacking the ball with more authority in September and the AFL. I don't know if that was him finally feeling healthy again, or him being frustrated with the way his season had gone and finally starting to just let it rip. It was great to see him make some changes when he came back at the end of the season, and gives me real hope for him going into 2023. Kirilloff and Martin are the 2 guys who's swings I'll be watching the closest come this weekend when the games start.

They're likely a little of both. Grounders are marked where they're fielded/first touched. Line drives and popups are marked where they landed. So a bunch of those singles are likely groundballs showing where they were fielded. At least that's what the tracking systems I'm aware of do. Perhaps baseball savant is different, though.

The Padres and Brewers used Rogers on back to back days 17 times last year. It became pretty apparent in his time with the Twins that he was bad on back to back days. The same kind of things popped up (his OPS against was .879 in appearances with 0 days rest) so people want to blame that on the managers using him wrong. My first thought about that is that you're not really a closer, let alone an elite one, if you can't be used on back to back days. Especially since the playoffs have a number of back to back games and you'd want your elite closer to be used in some of those I'd think. The other thing is that his OPS against wasn't good when he had 2, 3, or 4 days of rest last year either. It was very good with 1 day of rest. Taylor Rogers simply wasn't very good last year, and has never been an elite closer, or, in my opinion, a good closer, because if you can't use your closer in back to back games he's just reliever.

Mitch Haniger signed a $43.5 million deal. Between his signing bonus (6 million) and 2023 salary (5 million) he will make 11 million this year. Makes 17 million next year. Then has an opt out or can accept 15.5 million in 2025. I'm not sure I'd call that "little or nothing." Especially when he's topped 100 games played in only 2 of his MLB seasons.

Interesting find there. I'll start by saying any study with only 42 data points means next to nothing for me. 32% of those players were outfielders, and 32% were infielders. Now we're down to 26 players in this comparative sample. I'm going to need more than 26 data points to call anything useful. There's no real data in 13 outfielders hurt their knee more in the field than on the bases than 13 infielders did. Especially when those 26 players range from youth athletes (data means literally nothing to MLB athletes), to high school (still useless), to college (somewhat useful), and then the pros (useful). Were those 13 outfielders all 6th graders or high school kids? I appreciate the effort here, but that study means nothing in this context. Adalberto Mondesi tore his ACL on either a pick off play trying to get back to 1st, or a fake steal he did on the next pitch. Daniel Hudson tore his ACL trying to get off the mound to field a dribbler. Wilson Ramos tore his fielding a weak grounder in front of the plate. Kyle Schwarber tore his in a collision with another player. Marcus Stroman tore his doing fielding drills in spring training. Mariano River tore his just shagging fly balls. Dexter Fowler tore his running the bases. Adam Eaton tore his in a collision running to first. Acuna tore his chasing a fly ball. Royce tore his making a play against the wall. Mauricio Dubon tore his in a rundown after getting picked off. Antonio Senzatela tore his trying to cover first on a grounder to the 1B. There's a bunch of the recent MLB torn ACLs. I'm not seeing anything screaming "don't play guys in the OF!" there. Just a bunch of randomness. Which is what this is. A really big bummer of a random event. Edit: Sorry, I wasn't paying attention to what thread we were discussing this in. I appreciate the back and forth, and the effort to finding data, but let's get this back to Lee. I think we can both agree that Lee taking an infield spot is a very good idea!

I think that's actually pretty encouraging. I assume Lee doesn't have a bone in his wrist that is too long, and, when healthy, Kirilloff has looked like a future star. Let's hope Lee can stay healthy, and Kirilloff returns healthy, and these 2 can be our version of Arenado and Goldschmidt in St Louis!

We can't move Correa to 3rd because he makes too much to play there? Did I infer incorrectly? ************************************** Yes, you infer correctly. His value is as a shortstop. His stats as a shortstop are awesome!! His stats don't translate nearly as well as a 3rd baseman(middle of the pack?) FYI, Correa would've been 11th in HRs, 5th in BA, 3rd in OBP, 7th in SLG, and tied for 5th in wRC+ amongst qualified 3Bs last year. He was tied with Devers for wRC+. Devers just got 10 years, 313.5 million. Correa would certainly be a better fielder. Machado got 10, 300 that he's going to opt out of cuz he's going to get even more. Arenado got 8/260. Correa would be a top 5 3B, and they all get the same kind of money as he did.

And we don't need any data from some authorized research to tell us that it's not a good idea to put a player that has torn his ACL twice under conditions that have him running full blast, stopping and planting on that leg in a lateral movement, then twisting and throwing across his body. Since, you know, the vast majority of ACL tears we see in professional sports are non-contact injuries that take place while trying to plant after going full speed and making a lateral move. Like a SS does far more than an OFer jumps and lands awkwardly at the wall. Guess Lewis should just retire.

That's why I'd give him a minor league deal. I don't care if he's in St Paul struggling.

My hope is that Lee is in St Paul when Lewis returns from injury and we get to see a top of the order for the Saints that includes Julien, Martin, Lewis, and Lee in June. I hope they're all in AAA (in June) because I hope the guys currently penciled in for the Twins are all healthy and performing. Then Lewis takes RF from Kepler, and the other 3 are getting their feet wet as fill ins for 10 day IL stints here and there from the major league roster. To me, that's best case scenario. That'd, likely, mean the Twins are doing well, and staying mostly healthy, while these guys are getting an idea of what the big leagues are like and what adjustments they'll have to make. Allows the Twins to reshape their roster in the following offseason based on what these guys are showing them. If they all look ready to claim roster spots for 2024, that team is going to have a very cheap core and maybe all our dreams come true and the Twins splurge on a big time pitcher with the money saved from Gallo, Kepler, and at least 2 of the FA pitchers leaving. I wouldn't know what to do with myself if things actually played out like this. As for Lee himself, he sure looks like one of the higher floor prospects we've had in quite a while. It's hard to see him completely tanking. I'm not sold the power is ever much more than 15-20 HRs a year, but him hitting .280+ with a .375+ OBP and 15-20 HRs while playing a really solid, if not well above average, 3B would be incredible. And I think that's a pretty realistic dream as far as dreaming on prospects goes.

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It's "controversial" because there's no reason to suggest it was unwise. A torn ACL isn't like alcoholism or cancer. You're not fighting it for the rest of your life or in remission from it. You're healed. His knee was fine. Suggesting he shouldn't be allowed to play certain positions in his sport because he'd once injured his knee and healed is like suggesting every NFL and NBA player who tears their ACL should just retire because they're bound to tear it again if they keep running, jumping, and cutting on it. His knee was healed. It was the same as any other knee on the team. The answer to all their misfortunes and mistakes shouldn't just be "darn the luck," but it also shouldn't just be "gosh, they really should've known that was going to happen." Sometimes things just happen. The reason he even got called up in the first place is because Correa got hit by a pitch. Should the answer to that misfortune be "ugh, those idiot Twins let their SS play the game they pay him to play?" Or was it simply "darn the luck?" The idea that his knee was in more danger in the OF than the IF is based on no actual logic or proof. Literally none. You don't think him running full speed in either direction at SS to get to a grounder. planting on his right knee (the one he keeps injuring) to stop on a dime and/or twist to throw to first puts strain on his ACL? You think that's safer than running into a wall once a year? That's why it's controversial. Because you're trying to connect things that don't connect.

Yeah, this isn't how things work. It wasn't his "first few innings" there. He played 8 innings in CF in 2019 at AA. Didn't tear any ACLs then. He played 46 innings in CF in 2019 in the AFL. Didn't tear any ACLs then. Played 10 innings in CF in 2022 in St Paul. Didn't tear any ACLs then. Played 18 innings in LF in 2022 in St Paul. Didn't tear any ACLs then. Played 3 innings in CF in 2022 in Minneapolis and tore his ACL. Is your stance that it's just Target Field's CF that is dangerous? There isn't any evidence, solid or not, on what was right-wrong for Lewis. All we have is evidence that he got hurt. It doesn't have to be right or wrong. It can be, and is, simply sad. Otherwise, you better call the Mariners and let them know they have to move Julio Rodriguez out of CF immediately. I mean they just gave him a deal that could pay him nearly half a billion dollars. And they apparently are unaware that playing incredible athletes in CF is wrong because Royce Lewis got hurt doing it once. Matter of fact, better call the Angels, Braves, Mets, Pirates, Orioles, White Sox, and even the Yankees who used Aaron Judge out there. They all have great athletes who's ACLs are in incredible danger because they play CF. Then call the Twins a second time to tell them to move Buxton out of CF, too. Probably best we just play Gallo and Kepler there since we don't care if they get hurt.

I question whether or not he would have a real shot at making the team. If the Twins didn't feel their pen was set I'd think they'd be out there being more aggressive at bringing players in, don't you? Why would the Twins hand out 40-man spots to veterans with no options left who aren't likely to make the opening day roster? I don't know how much a reliever can really do in spring to impress enough, and unseat someone expected to make the roster already. Maybe their pen work really can be a battle for a roster spot, but, if not, having to DFA them, to me, is a worse spot (for the team) than having them on a minor league deal and being able to know you have them in AAA if needed. And I'd think a player would be happier taking a well paid minor league deal (nothing, that I know of, says they can't pay him the same amount without giving him a 40-man spot) with an opt out so they don't have to worry about playing the waiver game. But I could be wrong about that. I'd rather take a minor league deal with an opt out so I don't have to play the waiver game and risk going somewhere I don't want to go through the claims process. But maybe he doesn't care where he goes and just wants to keep pitching in the bigs. I don't know. It's why I question what is actually preferable for a player. Likely depends on the player. But I'm not in the "you have 40-man spots so just use them" boat. I think there's far more thought that should go into it than that.

Honestly? Pagan and Megill. I think Hand is toast. Hand wouldn't be in my top 25 Twins pitchers as of today. But what you and I think of their pen doesn't really matter. The Twins have been pretty clear that they think they have a good pen, and it's pretty well set barring injury. We may not like Pagan or Megill, but the Twins seem to. So my question really is about him not having a real chance to make this team outside of an injury. Many MLB teams are carrying only 1 lefty. The Twins have 2 who are better, and 1 (Coulombe) who is a likely washed up veteran like Hand. How much can a reliever do in a handful of spring innings to truly overtake guys the FO already thinks are good enough to be on the opening day roster? If the Twins didn't think they were set in the pen, I'd hope they were shooting for someone higher than Hand if they're forcing a veteran onto the opening day roster. It doesn't sound to me like the Twins are looking at him, or any currently available relievers, as more than depth, not opening day options. And if that's the case I don't see the point in signing any vet to a major league deal. And I can't imagine the players see a reason to sign a major league deal knowing their only real shot at making the roster is someone getting hurt, and that it's far more likely they're just DFA'd in a month.

Legitimate question, how do you think Hand, or any veteran for that matter, would feel being signed to the 40-man and then DFA'd before spring is done? I see that as the likely outcome if you sign one of these guys now simply because you have open spots. You add a veteran as the 40th man and the second someone you'd rather have gets waived you claim them and cut the veteran you just signed. Do you think they're just happy to be able to get into a camp and get some spring innings in, or are they annoyed with being bounced around as they try to hold onto the tail end of a career?

I think Henriquez is a reliever, and the Twins staff was much better at getting him to sequence his pitches better out of the pen. Not predicting a Duran type result in the pen, but I think he's somewhere between the 5.66 in AAA and the 2.31 in MLB. But he's, hopefully, on his way up, while Hand is very clearly on his way down. I'm not counting on everyone being better than last year. Many will be worse. And I think Hand is one. I don't want that kind of forced depth right now. I want guys with significantly higher ceilings than "can maybe hold on for another 30 innings through smoke and mirrors while missing basically no bats, walking a bunch, and not striking many out." I'd move Sands to the pen immediately as well, and also start him in AAA. I think Winder can be really good so I hesitate on the move to the pen just yet, but if I'm betting my house on it I'd guess that's where he ends up. I'd start them both in AAA, though. But I'd take both their upside, and chances of 2023 pen success, over Hand holding on.

We clearly see Hand differently, which is totally fine. I disagree that expecting guys to perform the same as the season before should be the default expectation. It's how you end up with Colome as your closer despite there being numerous signs he couldn't sustain that performance. There's far more to projecting this season's reasonable outcomes than that. But I'd take Henriquez with a 2.31 ERA, and .94 WHIP, out of the Twins pen if all we're doing is penciling in their stats from last year for this year. I'm not a huge fan of those 3 either, but I don't like any of the free agents better than them. Have the Twins said Duran is "too valuable" to move back to the rotation? It's possible I missed that, but I thought they moved him to the pen because they didn't think his arm could hold up to being a starter, and the reason they wouldn't put him back in the rotation is still just that they don't think his arm would hold up. Certainly possible I missed them saying it's him being "too valuable" in the pen, though. Sands is my best candidate for being this year's Jax. He looks like Duffey to me. Has the breaking balls to unleash effectively for an inning at a time, but not be a starter. I don't expect all of the young potential starters to stick as starters through this season even. And most of them are not particularly young. So transitioning a couple to the pen if they can perform much better there is a completely acceptable, and desirable, outcome to me. Build the pen for the next 5 years on pre-arb and arb eligible, homegrown failed starters? Yes, please. Save a whole lot of money to put towards a star that way. And that's even with the idea of not turning them into fulltime relievers in April or May. Reliever injuries, and replacements, are far different than starters. You can call Varland up for a week in the pen to cover for reliever X going down, and then call Winder up for the next week. That doesn't make Varland and Winder fulltime relievers now. They just go back to St Paul and rejoin the rotation. Like they did with Smeltzer last year. And Winder. And Sands. And Rodriguez. And Henriquez. And Sanchez. You don't have to "eat your seed corn" to use your AAA starters as injury fill-ins for relievers on the MLB team. That's why I don't care where Hand ranks in their reliever list, but I do care about where he ranks in their pitcher list.

Minor league deal with an opt out at the end of May if he hasn't been called up to that point.

Lewis would be #1 on my list, and the starting RFer for the Twins the second he's healthy this year. Well maybe a week in AAA to get his timing down. I'd have him as the starting RFer, and primary Buxton fill-in (replacing Taylor), moving forward. It's fascinating to me that people think the straight line running, with very occasional impacts with the wall, is so much more dangerous for a knee than the lateral movements with full speed sprint into immediate stop and twist actions of a SS would be. Do we see a lot of ACL injuries on guys running straight and just falling down grasping their knees or guys in the middle of a cut and they crumple in a heap?

I believe he's already doing baseball activities. I believe the last interview of his I saw he said he was starting to hit. But I could be wrong. I don't know what the rehab process looks like, but I'm pretty sure he's already doing baseball things. It's just a matter of how much more building up he needs to do to really let it rip everyday. Or my overly optimistic brain has made this all up and he's not actually doing baseball things yet. But I'm pretty sure that's what I saw.

I think their depth is Balazovich, Coulombe, Dobnak, Henriquez, Ober, Paddack (at mid-season), Sanchez, Sands, Varland, Winder, and SWR. I know they're stretching most of them out as starters, but that doesn't mean they'd skip over them and go down to the next group as their first call ups. Or that they'll all succeed as starters and not be shifted to the pen pretty early. They went to those types of guys in the pen last year so I'm not sure why we think they wouldn't do it this year. To me he's not better than any of those guys. He's in the De Leon, Enlow, Headrick, Lawyerson, Murphy, Ortega, Schulfer, Stewart group. Which, by my count, puts him somewhere in the 20s on the list of best pitcher options. They'll need that many throughout the year for sure. But I'm not forcing my 25th (or whatever he is) best pitcher onto my opening day roster just because I have an open 40-man spot. I'd rather take a shot at younger waiver claims with much more upside. I'd sign any of those guys you listed. To minor league deals. I'm not crossing my fingers and hoping washed up vets who aren't in my top 20 options can smoke and mirrors their way through the first month or 2 without blowing a handful of games for me, or only being willing to use them in mop up duty that really limits the usefulness of a roster spot. If Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Ober, Pagan, Thielbar, Balazovich, Headrick, Henriquez, Megill, Paddack, Sands, Varland, Winder, SWR, Coulombe, Dobnak, and Sanchez aren't enough to cover the vast majority of important innings for the Twins they're doomed and Brad Hand isn't going to save them. I listed 25 guys there. I don't care so much about starter vs reliever in terms of pitching depth in season. Most of the guys used beyond your top 15-20 are up for very short stints, and get very little work, so a AAA starter can be called up for a week in the pen if he's the best arm available. Hand wouldn't be in my top 20. The top 20 pitchers for the Twins last year covered 88% of the Twins innings. And that's with losing 2 starters in their first 5 starts with the team (Paddack and Mahle). So the other 18 guys they used (2 were position players) covered just 12% of the innings. 165 total innings amongst 18 guys. That's less than 10 innings a guy. I'm not forcing someone I don't see as one of their top 20 pitchers onto the opening day roster because I may need 10 innings out of someone of his talent level.

He's not as good as Moran is right now. And maybe that's the core of our disagreement here. Brad Hand isn't good enough to demand a roster spot on a team that's trying to win the division. The Twins need to bring their best roster to Kansas City, not the ones without options left (unless they're the same talent level). You build in Hand's option by signing him to a minor league deal and he's the guy who gets called up when he's the best option to be called up. Putting a guy who may be your 50th best player on the opening day roster simply because you're going to need more pitchers during the year makes no sense to me. And maybe you think Hand is as good as Moran and that's why you're in favor of that kind of move. I don't think Hand is good enough.