chpettit19

They've been quite open about the fact that they expected to have high K numbers this year. They've also been very open about the fact that they weren't expecting this high of K numbers, and that you can't sustain this kind of K rate without massive power. No, I don't think they'd just eat 11 mil on Gallo. Buxton openly admits that he does his own thing while hitting. I just don't buy the arguments you're making on him. He's been very open about how he's made his own decisions on his swing, approach, everything. And even if we say that's all the Twins, fine, that's 1 guy. Kepler's pull% has gone down since 2019, should we use him as proof that they're not going heavier into pulling the ball? This shows my point really well, "over half of the regular lineup." MAT and Farmer weren't supposed to be "regular lineup" guys, and Vazquez is only a 60% of the time guy. So, yeah, putting 2 platoon bats in the lineup everyday instead of just platooning them is absolutely a talent deficiency to me. And 5 other guys aren't seeing any real change at all in their K%. Why does that mean less than the 5 who've spiked? Add in the improvement from Jeffers and more guys aren't having any significant change at all compared to 5 guys who have. Nobody has been able to explain what drastic approach change they've made. They've always preached turn and burn. Pull the ball and elevate early and often. It's always been their thing. They've always been ok risking Ks for power. This year they just haven't been good at actually getting the power while the Ks have spiked. That's not an approach change, to me, that's just a performance change. But I think we've hit an impasse. Thanks for the back and forth!

Totally possible. None of us really know. All we can go on is what little info we get from the inside. And there were a whole lot of articles about how much the players loved Popkins before this season started. Including one about how much Correa tested him because Popkins had to earn his trust first, but then Correa calls him the best hitting coach he's ever had, or something along those lines if I remember correctly. Gallo has spoken about how getting to work with Popkins was part of the reason he came here. Does that mean he's a good teacher? Obviously not. But it certainly gives us reason to think that at least some guys really like what he does. From the outside, it does feel like he's very info heavy, though. And I wouldn't question it at all if players suggest they're more or less in paralysis by analysis at the plate too often because they're trying to think of everything he loaded them with before the game. I don't know who's good and who's bad as hitting coaches. I just know none of them make up for lack of talent.

I still don't understand what you mean by "willing to tolerate," but reasonable minds can disagree. Here's my breakdown of the guys on the 40 man: Jeffers: K% up from last year, but down significantly from 2021 when he had nearly twice as many PAs. Having best year since his 62 PA rookie year in 2020. Vazquez: K% up significantly over last 2 years, and up from career norms before that, but not as drastically. Correa: Up significantly from his career best 2021 season, and slightly up from last year, but pretty much right at where he was from 2018 through 2020. Farmer: Up significantly. Gallo: Pretty much right where he was last year. This is who he is. Julien: Was always a pretty high K rate guy in the minors, but no major league data to go on so no real thoughts here. Kirilloff: Up slightly from his first 2 partial seasons, but I'm not willing to make any definitive statements on a guy with his injury history and small sample size. Lewis: Nowhere near enough data for me have an opinion on. I will say that his public statements about doing what's best for him at the plate ("being Arraez") is a point for me in the idea that these guys don't just blindly do what they're told if they don't see results. Miranda: Down from last year, but not enough data to really speak on him either. Polanco: We've been over him. He's been hurt the last 2 years, and his 2021 was a rounding error jump. Hard for me to say 1 way or the other on this particular year based on his lack of playing, and being hurt when he did play. Solano: He's 5 Ks above his rate from last year (has 55 Ks, 50 would put him at 20%), and is an aging, part-time player thrust into everyday playing time (he's 2 games short of his games played from last year already) so I'm not going to say he's a massive spike of any kind. Castro: Up from last year, but right in line with, or lower than (SSS), the rest of his major league career. Celestino: Hasn't played Gordon: Cut his K% in more than half (11.8%) from previous 2 seasons (23.7 and 25.5), but super SSS so no real data there. Kepler: Significant spike from last year, solid spike from career norms. He's not been good. Larnach: Right in line with other SSS career norms. MAT: Significant jump from last 3 years. Has not been good. Wallner: Cut his K% from last year (39.5) more than in half (16), but super SSS so no real data there. But he's been a K machine his whole minor league career. Pretty much is who he is. Buxton: Same as last year, but up from 3 seasons before that. Playing hurt, and with his streakiness, and playing time history, I don't read much into him. So I have 5 guys who I see as having real spikes in there K% this year (Buxton, MAT, Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez). 5 guys I'd say are within a reasonable fluctuation of who we'd expect them to be (Larnach, Castro, Solano, Gallo, Correa) 1 guy who's improved/doing better than we'd expect him (Jeffers) And 8 guys that have too small, or no, sample size for me to really have an opinion on (Wallner, Gordon, Celestino, Polanco, Miranda, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien). And they range from drastic improvement (Gordon and Wallner) to big spike (Polanco and Lewis) with the others in between. Is that good? Nope. But I don't see some clear sign that they're doing anything drastically different in approach than they have since Falvine was hired. Adding Gallo alone is naturally going to spike your overall K%. I just don't think 5 guys having career worst years is crazy. Especially when 4 of those guys weren't great hitters to start with, and aren't exactly young.

And to be able to spend like they can? I really don't understand how they haven't lucked into a couple playoff appearances. Mind blowing stuff. I would argue the Rockies are giving them a run for their money in "worst run organization in baseball," though. Arenado and Story aren't Trout and Ohtani, but to lose those 2 for Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, and Jake Sommers while also having to pay down some of Arenado's contract is absurd. It's part of why I'm cautious about all the "Fire the FO" stuff. I'd fire them, but I'd do it with my eyes wide open to the fact that it can get worse. Much worse.

Yeah, I have no idea how good of a hitting coach Cruz would be. And, really, none of us know how good any of these hitting coaches, or guys we may suggest, are. I'm generally not someone who blames coaches for a lot of things in baseball. I don't think there's any hitting coach in baseball that could make this a good lineup. I don't know that what Popkins is doing isn't the right thing. I know the results are trash, but I don't know that it's his fault. Because I also know that this lineup lacked a lot coming into the season. I'm just not sold that firing a hitting coach is going to fix a flawed lineup. Outside of Buxton, Correa, and Miranda I don't see anyone performing poorly that I'm shocked by. And Miranda struggling isn't a shock, just the extent of his struggles is shocking. But the rest are pretty much doing what I expected, and a couple are actually outdoing what I expected. But it's a team built around 3 "stars" (Polanco being the 3rd) that are all 2nd level star hitters (not overall players, but bat alone they aren't elite) and a bunch of severely flawed players they hoped to mix and match into a good lineup. When your 3 "stars" are playing like replacement level players, or hurt, there's not a hitting coach alive that can turn the other flawed players into good enough hitters to carry the team. This team was short 1, and probably 2, truly frontline bats coming into the year, and their three 2nd tier bats have all collapsed. Nobody is fixing that, in my opinion.

Yeah, I've been surprised by trades plenty of times before, but I just don't see a realistic package from the Twins centered around an arm. Their big bats aren't rentals so the Cards don't have to trade them (unlike Shohei who I can't believe the Angels are refusing to trade). So you have to give them a real reason to do it. And, outside of Lee, and maybe ERod, I don't see anyone in the Twins system that can front a package for those guys. But it's entirely possible the Cards see the Twins arms much differently than I do. So it's possible. I just don't see it.

Yeah, I don't think the Twins have the requisite arms to make an offer the Cards would accept, because I think there are a lot of teams that could beat the package. I'd think if the Cards are trading Arenado (or Goldy) they're looking for a top 100 prospect back. The Twins don't have a top 100 arm. Beauty is all in the eye of the beholder here, but I don't see any arms in the Twins system that could front a package for either of the Cards big bats. It certainly only takes the Cards disagreeing with me, but I don't see it.

Could be. But you don't think another team could be that combo? Prielipp is about to have his 2nd TJ surgery in 2+ years so I'm not sure anyone would trade anything for him right now. And the rest aren't all that exciting. If that's all it would take I'd do it in a heart beat. But I think other teams can beat that package without breaking a sweat.

This topic is truly getting exhausting. For many reasons. Mostly because it's just so disappointing to not be able to see Buxton be Buxton. I am still not sure why people think the Twins wouldn't put Buxton in CF if they thought he could physically do it. Of course this team is better if Buxton is in CF. There are a whole bunch of people with their jobs on the line depending on how the team performs. You don't think those people would put him out there if they thought it was a manageable thing for him to do? As for the "hitting vs fielding" debate. It's about wear and tear, isn't it? If your belief is that they simply are trying to avoid an acute, "random" injury I get why you question it. I would, too. But they're trying to limit the wear and tear in hopes of his injury situation (I think we all assume it's a knee) improves. Hitting+Fielding>Hitting. Pretty simple equation. We don't even have to get into the differences between running the bases or tracking a flyball. It doesn't have to be that complicated. They're trying to limit wear and tear. Having him do less (read: don't play defense) achieves that goal. Don't see the controversy there. Sprinting 4 times is less than sprinting 4 times plus playing defense. Simple. I want Buxton back in CF. You all want him back in CF. The team wants him back in CF. Buxton wants to be back in CF. That interview that was posted was actually encouraging to me. Sounds like Buck has been doing some fielding work recently in hopes of getting back out there. Hopefully that means we'll get to see him out there again "soon." I'm super excited for when he goes back out there and then we get to have daily threads about "see, told you he could do it!" instead of daily "why won't they put him out there?" threads. At least we'd have Buxton in CF to make those threads less annoying to me.

He actually says "There's a lot of people who are participating in this conversation. I think the ones that are most central to the dialogue Nick Paparesta, our head athletic trainer, our strength and conditioning group, and Byron himself...We as a front office, and even Rocco I think, are really leaning into our medical staff, and ultimately Byron." He literally mentions the medical staff so I'm not sure why you'd suggest he didn't. I'd also be pretty willing to bet that Paparesta gets some pretty sizeable input from the team doctors.

I'm in the same spot here as I am with the Goldy trade ideas. I love it, but I don't see the fit. The Cards need pitching, and I don't think the Twins have the prospect arms to make this kind of deal happen. I'd love Arenado on the Twins, though. Should've beat that terrible Cards package they sent to Colorado in the first place.

If it makes you feel better the Twins do match them in K% 🤷‍♂️ 😔

I think Padres fans would probably tell you his presence isn't enough to save an underperforming major league lineup in 2023.

I agree with this whole paragraph. My argument isn't that they don't de-emphasize Ks or want to put the ball in the air. My argument is that isn't a different approach than in 2019. That's the exact same approach they had in 2019. They were just better at actually hitting the ball, and putting it in the air, in 2019. This is the approach the Twins have had since Falvine got here. And firing Popkins isn't going to change that approach because it's the approach that Falvine thinks is the right one. They just have less talented players this year so the results are different. But the approach isn't.

We should probably acknowledge that Buxton likes to publicly talk about how he does his own thing when it comes to hitting. He's been very open that he's his own hitting coach. And he's been playing through injuries the last 2 years instead of going on the IL. Does that play any role? The K every 12 games stat wasn't about raising the 2019 K%, but lowering the future ones. Your claim is that they're K'ing at a significantly higher rate because the Twins have told them to sacrifice contact. Polanco had 116 Ks in 704 PAs in 2019 for a 16.5% K rate. In 2021 he had 118 in 644 for an 18.3% rate. 106 Ks in 644 PAs gets him to 16.5%. He played 152 games that year. 12 Ks (118 down to 106) over 152 games isn't much of a spike to me. In 2022 he had 95 Ks in 445 PAs for 21.3% K rate. Now that is a more significant spike as he'd have to get down to 74 Ks in 445 PAs to get to 16.6%. That's a K every 5 games. But he also played much of the year hurt, like this year, so I'm not sure we can really put that all on some massive approach change. So what's their strategy this year? How have all these veteran hitters changed their approaches? What is different about their approach that leads to more Ks? Do you think MAT cares about his next contract? Is he willing to change his approach drastically and rack up all these Ks knowing he's a free agent after the year? The guys we're talking about have all been in the league a really long time, and had some amount of success. You really think they all got to spring training and the Twins told them to significantly change their approach and they were all just cool with that? My main question is what do you mean by "greater willingness to sacrifice contact?" What does that look like? What are they saying in hitter meetings? What were they taught in spring training that would "sacrifice contact?" And was it all such strong teachings that they are incapable of going back to career norms they built up over years because of 4+ months with the Twins? Interesting stat: 2019 Twins lineup hit 97 HRs in 3225 PAs with 2 strikes. .03 HRs per PA. 2023 Twins lineup has 31 HRs in 1885 PAs with 2 strikes. .016 HRs per PA. Was that 2019 team cutting down their swings with 2 strikes, or did they just perform better with the same approach?

Buxton has had 3 seasons where his K% was less than his 29.2% career mark. That's only 1/3 of his seasons. 1 of those was 26.7. He's had 2 out of 9 seasons where his K% was under 25%. Let's not act like he's been some contact oriented hitter who doesn't K at an above league average pace. And with his injuries, streakiness, and sporadic playing time, I have a hard time pointing to him as evidence of anything. As we've already accepted, Kepler was actually much better last year under these same hitting coaches. Do we think these hitting coaches have changed their approach drastically from last year? I pointed out how few Ks it took to get Kepler and Polanco's numbers 6-7% higher than the starting point. 1 K every 12 games. I'm not seeing a drastic shift anywhere with those 3. I do think this team has been too extreme in their approach to analytics. But I think they've been that way since they got here. They didn't luck into that 2019 team. This has been their approach from the beginning. And they go out and look for guys who have the same approach quite often. My argument is that they haven't changed their approach, they've just got less talented, and it's been mixed with bad years from Correa and Buxton to make it look like the team is doing something different. Castro, Farmer, MAT, etc. aren't everyday guys. But they're playing everyday for this team. Of course the team numbers look worse. I don't believe the approach is drastically different at all. I think the results are different. They talked about looking to hit mistakes for maximum damage in 2019. They talk about looking to hit mistakes for maximum damage in 2023. It's the same approach. They just hit the mistakes more often in 2019 which lead to different results. And their lack of change in approach for years has made them super easy to scout and prepare for. Not surprising at all that the whole league knows how to attack the Twins since they've been trying to do the same thing since Falvine arrived.

It's going to be really interesting to see how they manage Ober. He's already at 100 innings for only the 3rd time in his life. If they run a 5 man rotation the rest of the season they're all getting 14 more starts. I can't imagine they're letting Ober throw another 70 or 80 innings this year. Do they go straight 6 man rotation giving everyone an extra day's rest? Do they throw in a couple IL stints for guys and skip a couple starts? Send Ober down for 2 weeks, but don't actually pitch him? Will be interesting to see what they do. I'd guess they let Lopez, Ryan, and Gray go with no concerns. I think Maeda is probably in the same boat as long as he keeps performing. But I think they'll do some things to manage Ober's innings no matter how he's pitching. Keuchel could certainly be part of that plan.

Fair.

Who said Polanco should still be playing SS? I certainly didn't. Shortstop is different than RF. But, correct me if I'm wrong here, Jorge Polanco was the short stop on the 2019 MN Twins who won 101 games and had an awfully good offense while also having the 9th best team ERA in baseball. His defense sure didn't kill them that year, now did it? He was actually an All Star, and 13th in MVP voting. Crazy, I know. I don't hate Kepler. My rhetoric doesn't say so. I haven't said he is THE problem. No 1 player is THE problem. He is part of the problem. I'm sorry you can't accept what I've said multiple times. I've said many, many, many, many, many times all over these forums that Kepler has been a solid player for many years, but has been asked to be more than he is. It's much the same now. But the team can't win with this offense. And Kepler is part of that problem, and plays a position they have possible replacements at. If you'd like to discuss other players who are part of the problem I'd love to. Buxton is. Correa is. Miranda is. Vazquez is. Nearly the entire offense is. But some are bigger parts than others, and some are easier to replace than others. Kepler is a bigger part, and easier to replace. So I'd like them to start there. Or they can keep doing it your way and watch this team continue to struggle. At least you'll know the names on the back of the jerseys while you watch them lose the worst division in baseball.

So the question is if established veterans have chosen to dramatically change their approach from their career years because the Twins hired 1 new hitting coach? And the team is even more into trying to hit HRs now than they were when they set the MLB single season HR record? If the answer is yes to that first question I blame those established vets just as much as anyone else in the org. If you have a career year doing things 1 way why would you change it to another way? And why wouldn't you change back if you were failing doing things the new way? You're 29 or 30 years old. You're not in little league. You're making 10s of millions of dollars. Don't follow Popkins down a dark alley if you know the way to your destination already. Buxton's career K% is 29.2 in 2437 PAs. He's at 30.0 this year. Kepler has seen a spike this year, yes, but even his "steady increase" in 2021 was a matter of 13 strikes over the course of that season. 13 fewer Ks and he'd have had the same K% as 2019. Basically 1 extra K every 10 games played. That doesn't sound like much of a shift in approach. So 2021 he saw basically no real increase in Ks, 2022 he saw career low in Ks, and now he's seeing his career high. I'm not seeing the clear change there. Jorge Polanco played hurt for most of last year, and has 127 PAs this year. Polanco's 2021 was 12 Ks over the course of the season away from his 2019 K%. 1 K every 12.6 games. Doesn't sound like a huge shift there. 2019 was their career best years. 2023 is their career worst years. We're looking at outliers and trying to suggest there's some significant change in approach even though they all say their approach is the same. Try to hit the ball really freaking hard.

From a 2019 NY Times article “We have a really aggressive offensive mentality,” Rowson said. “Look for good pitches to drive. It could be the first pitch of the at-bat, it could be the 10th pitch. If you get a good pitch to hit, put a good swing on it and hit the ball hard. We try to keep it that simple.” “But I’m not as good as Joe Mauer, so I’ve got to swing early on,” Kepler said. Being around the Twins’ aggressive hitters kept Kepler mindful about pouncing on the first pitch he could drive. He is seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance and hacking at the first pitch more often. “Pitching is getting better so you have to take your chances early on and not let too many go by,” he said. “Our guys stay under control, but they go up there to impact the ball,” Baldelli said. Garver and others have made an effort to follow the hitting principles of the so-called launch angle revolution: hit the ball in the air hard to the dominant side. The Twins have had a gradual increase in average launch angle each year (they ranked second in 2018 and 2019) and in how hard the ball was hit (their average exit velocity jumped to fourth in 2019 from 20th in 2018), according to Statcast. Buxton, Polanco, Sano and Garver have increased their launch angle this season. The evidence is with me. The approach is the same. Ambush mistakes and look to do damage. Unless, of course, you think Rowson and Kepler and Rocco were lying back then.

It's not demonstrably wrong. Them being better hitters made it so they didn't K as much. They were open an honest back then about their approach being to ambush mistakes and look to do as much damage as they could. They've been open and honest this year about their approach being to ambush mistakes and look to do as much damage as they can. The approach is the same. The results are different. The results being different doesn't mean the approach is different. These guys simply aren't as good at actually ambushing the mistakes.

I think there's more info we need when it comes to talking about Rocco, and the coaches, not knowing what to do. The implication you seem to be making is that there is an answer, but the staff just isn't "smart enough" (or however you want to word that) to know what the answer is. But it's also possible that they've tried just about everything, and Rocco is just at the point where he's saying more of a "there's nothing left to do." That would be a situation where there just isn't enough talent. And that's my stance. There simply isn't enough talent. I'm good with a change. And I don't expect anyone on these boards to be able to tell us what should be done, but what should be done to make Gallo better? Or Kepler? Or Buxton? Or Castro? Or Vazquez? The list goes on and on. I won't fight the idea that Correa, Buxton, Miranda, and Vazquez are performing significantly below expectations. But Kepler isn't. Gallo isn't. Castro isn't. Jeffers is above expectations. Lewis was at expectations. I think Kirilloff is performing to a reasonable expectation given his wrist concerns. Julien is doing all we could've hoped for. Miranda is way below our hoped for performance, but one could argue he's not outside the performance range of a sophomore hitter who had these exact struggles for most of his career. MAT is at expectations. Solano and Farmer both pretty close to expectations, outside of Farmer not destroying lefties. But, outside of your 2 superstar veterans (I find it hard to blame a hitting coach for guys with this much experience tanking), and a catcher (not exactly a core offensive threat), these guys are doing what they do. Every coach they've ever had has been at a loss. Because this is who these guys are. This offense simply isn't talented enough. That being said, I'm still fine with firing everyone because I think they need an organizational overhaul. If the new FO wants to bring Popkins back, cool, but I want them to clean house and start over.

The point isn't that that team didn't perform better, it's how much credit you give to Rowson for that. The approach was actually the same. Ambush mistakes and look to do as much damage as possible when doing it. There's plenty of quotes all over this site, and many others, from many members of the Twins organization that their approach this year is to ambush mistakes and look to do as much damage as possible when doing it. This team just isn't as talented so they're failing at it. You didn't show all the stats for Rowson lead teams after he left MN. That's the point those posters are making. It wasn't Rowson, it was the players. The Marlins and Tigers weren't successful under Rowson. Did he forget how to coach hitting after 2019 or is it about player talent and Rowson wasn't some magic hitting genie in 2019?

I literally couldn't care less about errors. Especially for outfielders. And especially in the minors. It doesn't really tell you anything important. How many of those 26 errors were dropping fly balls? Kicking grounders? Throwing errors? How far did he range to get to the balls before committing his error? Pointing out their number of errors is just as bad as simply pointing to strike outs and suggesting that tells who is and isn't "the problem." And I'm not even suggesting he's a good defender. He's not. And I'm not sure he'll hit enough to make up for it. But I do know Kepler doesn't defend well enough to make up for his lack of hitting at a bat first position. And I don't care what term or phrase you use. Kepler is 100% PART OF the problem with the Twins. Again, I didn't say he's THE problem, or changing him out fixes ALL their problems. I said PART OF. That has nothing to do with blinders, tunnel vision, or whatever other term or phrase you want to use. He can't hit. The Twins problem is their inability to hit. Suggesting he's not part of the problem is far more about having blinders, or tunnel vision, than suggesting he's 1 part of the team's problem.