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mnfireman

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Everything posted by mnfireman

  1. mnfireman
    If the Twins thought that Polanco and Arraez were the answers up the middle we would have seen that last season, all season. Instead they signed Simmons as a place holder and potential late season mentor for Lewis. moved Polanco to 2B and Arraez moved into a utility role. Then Lewis got hurt, throwing a wrench into the machine. Nothing has changed, if anything Polanco's season justified the team moving him to 2B and Arraez's ability to move around the diamond, however subpar defensively, coupled with his trips to the IL justified not giving him a starting role. Like it or not, the team needs to hit the reset button. Whether they view Lewis as a SS going forward determines what they do next. If they do, they sign another stop-gap veteran. If they don't, they need to sign Story or trade for someone to play SS for the next few seasons.
  2. mnfireman
    They shouldn't have to, neither failed a test. Media didn't like either of them.
  3. mnfireman
    How about right next to this guy - .286/.319/.360? Another light hitting middle infielder, who is now out of the game because he can't hit for power and can't play defense. But he can sure steal bases, 333 of them in his 10 year career. Hint: his younger brother is on this team. Guys who can hit but can't field better be able to hit for power (Cruz, E. Martinez, Pappi, Baines, Thome) or they will find themselves out of the game, especially if they don't have speed and have a history of knee problems at a young age. Schoop started 110 games 2B in 2019, 72-38 .654 record. Arraez started 49 games, 34-15 .694 record. Arraez started 31 games at 2B in 2020, 20-11 .645 record. Marwin Gonzalez started 21, 13-8 .619 record. So no, not really, and winning percentages were about the same.
  4. mnfireman
    Polanco is not a SS. His metrics (and the eye tests) are horrible. The Twins were 9-17 (.346) with him at SS last year and a full season of him and Arraez up the middle would be a disaster. Simmons couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag, but was one of MLB's top fielding SS's. But he tested positive for Covid and missed time. Several other players also tested positive and received a pass from this forum, but not Simmons because he spoke out against vaccines. Not one of those other positives was traced to Simmons, but he was still vilified. He was signed as a stop-gap until Lewis was ready, but Lewis got hurt, and the team needs another stop-gap year. Any other year and any other player, and this forum would be all for re-signing said player for another year, even with sub-par offensive numbers, because he would be the best stop-gap option again. Polanco is not the best option at SS for this season, or any season going forward, because that would mean Arraez is playing everyday at 2B and that is not good. You can cover one bad defender with offense, but not two, especially up the middle. There are several short term options the team could sign on the cheap, or they could sign Story, further clogging the 2B/SS depth, and go forward, hoping to win 8-7 every night and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle in a trade.
  5. mnfireman
    2021 bWAR - 8+ MVP, 5+ AS, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve: Tatis - 6.6 bWAR Padres 79-83 Story - 4.2 bWAR Rockies 74-87 Swanson - 1.9 bWAR Braves 88-73 WS Champions Torres - 0.8 bWAR Yankees 92-70 SS bWAR doesn't always indicate team record, especially when most of that bWAR comes from the offensive side, Polanco is a better fit at 2B and stands a better chance to remain in the line-up everyday.
  6. mnfireman
    With Donaldson: 2020 - 19-9 .679 2021 - 57-78 .422 without Donaldson: 2020 - 17-15 .531 2021 - 6-11 .353
  7. mnfireman
    As do Hrbek, Gagne, Gladden, Bush, Newman, & Larkin.... Griffey Jr. and Trout also have 0 rings. I don't like using rings for individual player comparisons.
  8. mnfireman
    Both spent 12 years with the Twins, so let's use those splits: Carew - .334/.393/.448 12x AS, ROY, MVP, 63.8 bWAR Puckett - .318/.360/.477 10x AS, 6x GG, 51.2 bWAR, 2x WS Champ, 1x WS MVP Then let's take their age 26-32 season (arguably the best 7 years of each of their careers): Carew - .350/.414/.468 7x AS, MVP, 49.2 bWAR Puckett - .329/.368/.498 7x AS, 6x GG, 36.8 bWAR, 2x WS Champ, 1x WS MVP Carew never won a GG but fielding metrics didn't hate him at either 1B or 2B. Puckett won 10 GG but fielding metrics don't like him very much, though we remember the big plays (kind of like Jeter) If I had the #1 overall draft pick and these were my two choices (knowing these would be their stats), I would pick Carew. But I might also just flip a coin because you couldn't go wrong choosing either...
  9. mnfireman
    MI Depth between MLB & MiLB: Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Sano, Lewis, Martin Miranda, Cavaco, plus some lower level prospects that may or may not pan out. Arraez is a known commodity and if he can't be traded I think it makes more sense to go year to year in arbitration, much like the team did with Rosario. His knees are bad and his stats are trending the wrong way.
  10. mnfireman
    From Wikipedia, concerning the 1997 expansion draft: For the first round, 15 players from the rosters of their entire organization—both their 40-man roster, plus all minor league affiliates.[4] Each team could add three more players to its protected list after each round.[4] All players in an organization were eligible to be drafted, except those with no prior major league experience who had less than three years service if signed at age 19 or older, or had less than four years of service if signed at age 18 or younger.[5] Players who were free agents after the end of the 1997 season need not be protected.
  11. mnfireman
    I would be for expansion if for no other reason than to even out the leagues and eliminate/minimize interleague play. Pitcher development would become extremely important, but I think the days of 6 inning starters would become a thing of the past and the 3 true outcome hitters would become more the norm. However, one question has not been asked: Which player/prospect(s) are you prepared to lose? If teams can protect only 20 players, which 20 do the Twins protect first? They will be able to add to the protected list anytime a player is chosen, but could still run the risk of losing of a top prospect or MLB starter. Looking back at the past drafts, teams lost some very good players/prospects including Trevor Hoffman, Vinny Castilla, Carl Everett, Brian Harvey, Joe Girardi, Bobby Abreau, Ruppert Jones, Jim Clancy, Ernie Whitt and other past and future all-stars.
  12. mnfireman
    Yes, are you? His 3 year splits are trending the wrong way: '19 - .334/399/.439 '20 - .321/.364/.402 '21 - .294/.357/.376 AVG down 40 points, OBP down 42 points and SLG down 63 points. And he has bad knees, which will not get better as he gets older. Buxton's (your comparison) 3 year splits are trending up: '19 - .262/.314/.513 '20 - .254/.267/.577 '21 - .306/.358./647 I don't think his numbers will stay at the '21 level, but probably somewhere around the 3 year average - .277/.321/.575. And Buxton's injuries have not included bad knees, but have nonetheless limited his playing time. Gordon, Lewis, Martin, Miranda, or FA signings such as Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison or Matt Duffy could step in and do what Arraez does.
  13. mnfireman
    Arraez should be traded this off-season before any trade value he has goes away. He has no power, no speed. no defensive position and he has been injured too often. He could be easily replaced by any one of several players with more upside as a defender or hitter or both. I don't think he will be one of those players that we (the fans) will look back on and say "if only the Twins had kept him."
  14. mnfireman
    The Twins will put him in the line-up at 1B & DH, trying to maximize match-ups, as $9.25MM is a reasonable amount to pay him. They will try to move him at the deadline, and, if they get a good offer, will trade him. If unable to trade him, they will look at his numbers and decide whether to exercise the $14MM option for 2023. He has only had 1 season (2018) where he wasn't above league average in OPS+ and compares favorably to some good MLB players through age 28 according to Baseball Reference: Similar Batters through 28 Kyle Schwarber (966.1) Dave Kingman (942.8) Chris Davis (941.8) Greg Vaughn (938.3) Carlos Quentin (934.1) Nick Swisher (932.9) Randal Grichuk (932.0) Michael Conforto (930.3) Joc Pederson (926.1) Max Kepler (919.4)
  15. mnfireman
    Mid-level pitching FA starters left on the market: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/looking-at-the-remaining-free-agent-starters-beyond-rodon-kershaw.html
  16. mnfireman
    Hindsight is always 20/20. Badoo was a 22 year old who had missed 2020 due to no minor league baseball that season and had slashed .214/.290/.383 in 29 games in A+ in 2019. Nobody foresaw him being picked in the Rule 5 draft, much less having the season he did. If the roles had been reversed and it was the Twins who had picked him, TD posters would have been going insane saying how bad of a signing this was because he would have had to stay on the MLB roster all season. Wade had showed very little in his time with the Twins, slashing .211/.336/.347, Cave slashed .248./.328/.431 over the same period (.254/.321/.451 if you include 2018). Cave had a better track record in MLB and the Twins were hoping he would bounce back from a disappointing 2020. He got hurt early in did not. If I recall, there was some dissent here on TD about trading Wade last off-season, but nothing too bad. Until he started hitting in SF. If both continue to produce at the level they did in 2021 then yes, they can be added to the list of "The one that got away", but if they regress (see Goodrum, Niko) we will not be talking about them at all in a couple of years.
  17. mnfireman
    Twins relievers had a 3.45 ERA in August & September, and this was after they lost Rogers to injury and traded Robles to Boston. I think roles were figured out and the players made the necessary adjustments to be successful going forward. Does this mean continued success? Possibly not, but I think the BP is not of concern on the level of SP, SS and to a lesser extent, LF.
  18. mnfireman
    You keyboard warriors run a pretty good front office from your home home office...
  19. mnfireman
    https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/mlb-robot-umps-are-bad-red-sox-astros-human-error-01fjez51ne91
  20. mnfireman
    Falvey also elected to develop pitching instead of signing big name FA's in Cleveland also. Some of those guys turned out okay, maybe it will happen here....
  21. mnfireman
    Typical reply from you, cherry pick part of a statement to suit your argument. Of course I know/realize the home plate ump doesn't make all calls on the field. Read the examples I listed.
  22. mnfireman
    I am not interested in watching baseball games umpired by robots. I think it will lead to even more bad calls on the field because the umpire will not be as involved. Look how many "bad" calls are made because the umpire knows it will be reviewed anyway. If the umpire isn't making the ball and strike call, he may be disinterested when needed to make the foul tip, hit by pitch, foul ball off the foot, catchers interference or similar call. And just like those advocating for it, my opinion will not be changed by any amount of lobbying by those in favor.
  23. mnfireman
    Probably LF, unless they can move Hosmer (his contract goes through '25, but falls to $13MM a year from $21MM a year after this year). Otherwise they could rotate guys through the DH spot and he could play OF, 3B and 1B.
  24. mnfireman
    They already have a power hitting 3B with a big contract (Machado).
  25. mnfireman
    Pohlad's calling: You are hired to run our baseball investment. You clearly are forward looking and have a keen eye for investment possibilities. Name your salary.
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