gunnarthor

I think all the lists are helpful and it's better to use them instead of relying on just one. Guys like Balazovic and Thorpe don't have Duran's ceiling but both could be solid ML starters in this era. That's a really good prospect. It's also worth remembering that a numarical list is going to have flaws and it's better to look at the players in tiers. Fangraphs and pipeline try to do this more with FV grades. I suspect if Zips and fangraphs both went to 200, their results would have a lot more overlap.

I'm not sure how you can square the Dozier return after the FO held him a year too long and got tiddly for him and rate that as a win. Has the FO made even one trade as good as Liriano for Escobar? Had the old front office ever waived the white flag at the trade deadline? From 2001 until 2017, the Ryan* system had 6 losing seasons (four in a row was the most at any one point but forgetting that the Twins were challenging for the playoffs in 2015 is pretty common malady. The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not) and won the central 6 times despite being handcuffed with ridiculous payroll constraints. The new FO inherited a extremely loaded and talented team and already had one 'total system failure' season. Last year the Twins had 18 players who managed 1 WAR or more, the new FO brought in 7 of those players. The inherited players were also much better - averaging nearly .5 WAR more per player. Players that the previous regime traded for that became good is legion. The reason the Twins could move from one core to another core and still be competitive was because our development team did a great job. We have yet to see anything from the new FO that they will be able to replicate that. The fact that after three years and the #1 pick in the draft and two deadline sales we only received 3 top 100 prospects should be alarming. * it's really not fair to call 08-11 part of the Ryan years but all the Ryan haters include it even though there were seismic changes made by Smith in the development staff that Ryan changed again in 2012.

Other than the Odo trade, we haven't traded for one player who amassed 1 WAR in a season for us. We've let several players walk who have managed that with their new teams which is a mark against the new FO. The fact that you're happy with Smeltzer probably suggests you're still drinking the cool-aid a bit much.

Actually, this is one of the things I disagree with the most. Falvine have been in charge for three drafts and two deadlines where we traded for prospects. Yet, coming into this season, we had as many top 100 prospects in our system from the old regime as we did from the new. (Trading Graterol changed that number). We were told that Enlow was the equivalent of a first round pick but he's struggled enough that our hopes on him should be lowered. Some of the trades are too early to judge but Celestino and Duran are the only two in our top 20 (apologies if I missed someone). Duran looks really promising but Celestino has over 650 PA in A ball and doesn't look great. And this FO has also been willing to lose draft picks at a pretty alarming rate. The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group.

I like this system but I don't love it like I loved the Sano/Buxton/Berrios group when they were coming up. The 2014 Twins system had 6 guys in pipeline's top 37. That year or the next, they had 11 in BP top 101. What's interesting is seeing that some of the highly regarded guys in those years - Meyer, Stewart, - failed but some other guys - Kepler, Rosario, Polanco - became pretty solid MLers. I think this year will tell us a lot about the pitchers in the system. Duran seems to me the only one who could end up as a #3 or better type but Balazovic could have a solid career, sorta like Scott Baker had. I'm way more confident in the bats. I think Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wallner, Larnich, Blankenhorn and Jeffers will all play multiple seasons in the majors.

It's way too early to grade this draft but I agree, there is some upside in it. Especially those two Auburn infielders. I wasn't sold on the Cavaco pick and was a bit underwhelmed on Wallner and Canterino but some of the other picks look encouraging - Steer looked pretty good even in A ball. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/twins-spencer-steer-trying-to-break-from-the-pack/ It's worth looking back on drafts. The 2012 and the 2016 drafts are going to be particularly strong for us, I think.

Yep, quite the stock. In four years, my one small purchase has become our largest individual holding.

I was hoping the Twins would draft a pitcher but it wasn't a great draft. Cavaco was flying up the draft boards so he wasn't a reach. But he's a toolsy guy who will take time. Far too early to condemn the pick and I think his draft spot can support a top 10 placement (although on the TT poll, i had him lower)

Still thinking about ISRG but bought Exxon this morning for my IRA. Like the dividend and it's pretty low. It'll go lower though since I bought it. That's my MO. Here's an article on health care stocks that I was looking at. ISRG is recommended a few places that I've found.

Did this get posted yet?

I like Rooker. He'll get some time in the majors this year when Donaldson, Cruz or Sano go to the DL. With the new roster expansion to 26 players, I wonder if the Twins would risk having a thunder bat on the bench for a few pinch hit opportunities over the year and spot starts or go with a more flexible option. Obviously, you generally want young guys to get constant playing time over bench time but if A) you think he's more or less ML ready now and his future is closer to platoon bat/bench player anyway ... There are going to be a lot of games where the Twins start Astudillo or Adrianza and maybe even Jake Cave or Wade. Having a big pinch hit bat on the bench might be an interesting experiment for the team.

I'm still a little surprised that the Twins aren't getting a small piece back from Boston. Think they should get a lottery ticket in the low minors. But, what the heck.

I think the big thing about Maeda is how affordable he'll be the next few years. We have a lot of payroll issues so finding a solid big league pitcher at his price is probably a significant factor for the Twins FO.

Man, I'm not sure I like this trade for the Twins. I know I hate it for LA and love it for the Red Sox.

Thanks Mike. I got the WFC research on ISRG from my broker this morning - I'd attach it for you but have no idea how to do that. They have it overweight (which is a buy and an expectation of 10% or better growth over the next 12 months) and the research was written up on 1/27/20 so it's fresh. Not completely on board yet since there is no dividend and I love dividend stocks for my IRA but leaning towards making the purchase this week. Looking at a few pharmaceuticals as well.

I just moved 6k into my IRA for 2020 and am kicking around selling ROKU. I'm not sure how strong it will remain over the next year. Has anyone heard of Intuitive Surgical, Inc.? I think that's my next purchase. Lastly, this is a nice article on why DRIP investing makes sense long-term.

Agreed. And they are still impacting us. Half of the Twins current top 100 prospects, per BA, came from the previous regimes as well.

We might add a few vets on non-guaranteed contracts but the roster is pretty much set at this point. It's a good roster. Pitching could be better and we're a little light on depth but overall, this roster should win the AL Central again and have a puncher's chance against anyone (except the Yankees). Right now, the Twins shouldn't do anything. Ideally, they'll have some trade chips if needed at the deadline but for now, they should see what this lineup can do. I don't think we'll break the HR record again but we should lead the league in HRs as a team. A healthy Sano might lead the league in HRs this year. That would be awesome.

Well, I was very negative on the FO early but this really changes things. They've made some solid signings and this one is a big time get. Very impressed. Great work to the FO.

Top 10 finish. Ahead of Wisconsin and Iowa. :-)

Here's the mlbtraderumors write up on him - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/oscar-colas-to-seek-mlb-deal.html Seems to be less agreement that he can be a two way player than Ohtani. Also, we've seen a number of high profile Cuban contracts utterly blow up on the teams that signed them. Rusney Castillo was given 72m by the Red Sox in 2014. Yasmany Tomas was given 68m+ by the Dbacks in 2014 as well. Hector Olivera got 62m in 2015 from the Dodgers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_defected_from_Cuba That's not to say I don't want us to sign him, I want our scouts to do their due diligence and, if they think he'll help, sign him. The Twins get a little more than most teams (but not all teams) in their international pool although what they don't spend they can't carryover. This year they had nearly 6m to spend and looks like they've spend about 3.5 (Emmanuel Rodriguez being the big fish this year). It doesn't seem like an international draft will happen by July 2020 so the Twins are likely to have a big chunk of cash available again.

I can't find any NFL draft info on him. Anyone know what round he is supposed to go in?

My guess is that last year was Kepler's career year but he probably has a few more 3-4 WAR type seasons. But I don't think he gets much better but he probably plateaus. A corner OF with a Cuddyer type profile but better defense is a darn good player.

Another PR piece from TD? How many do you have? I really hope you're getting some kick back from the Twins. Maybe that's where the payroll is going. Anyhow, the linked article about the trade "wins" is ridiculous and the new FO has made one good trade in three + years (Odorizzi) and one good FA signing (Cruz) if you define "good" as averaging at least 2 WAR/season. If you just want one simple 2 WAR season, you could add Castro to the list. The Twins had a massive build up of talent before this new FO got here and so far they have failed to augment that talent.

I'm really not surprised at all by this offseason. The Pohlads are the problem. We've had some pretty smart GMs over the years. It's not them. Ownership puts severe limits on this team yearly. Dumpster diving, one year contracts, relying on prospects is going to continue. We need better prospects - Randy Dobnak should not be starting a playoff game.