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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    On the Twins/Rays comparisons, since 2008 (which is when the Rays got good and doesn't count the strong 01-07 run the Twins were on), both teams have won their division 4x. Rays have had 8 winning seasons in that time, Twins have had 7. Obviously, the Rays have had much better post-season success (they've gotten in as a WC three times to the Twins one time) and I think you can give them a degree of difficulty for playing in the AL East, but, realistically, only a few small market teams have managed to have more than five straight winning seasons since baseball's payroll structure got out of hand. And that's the big thing - payroll. Even the smartest front offices haven't really been able to stop the cycle because they can't buy their way out of misses. The Yankees traded one of the best hitting prospects in years for Pineda, who didn't pitch that well for them. No matter, the Yankees could buy pitching so losing a top 3 prospect and not getting much in return didn't phase them. That would cripple us. That's why the Twins 01-10 run was so special but it's also so hard to replicate. Tampa's four years into one now. Good for them.
  2. gunnarthor
    Don't worry, Falvine will get them right back there. But a way you can find out if the team they inherited was playoff caliber is to see that they did make the playoffs despite the FO trying to trade off their best player and bringing in nothing to help the team.
  3. gunnarthor
    My theory is that when they came in, they were excited to build a team from the ground up. They had the #1 pick, hoped to trade Dozier for more top 100 building blocks, probably expected another top pick in the next draft. They'd get a few years to create a farm system, make super impressive trades, and build up that good will. Instead, the team they inherited was playoff caliber (they didn't recognize that) and they were put in a position of supporting the core and extending the window of opportunity. Now they're in the position they thought they'd be in five years ago but the fan base isn't happy and ready for another rebuild. I suspect one, if not both, are gone a year from now. They'll probably leave for a different position then get fired though.
  4. gunnarthor
    None of this should really surprise us. For 30 years, no matter who is the GM, the Pohlads have had a tight control of payroll. Falvey and Levine were hired to duplicate the success the Twins managed from 01-10, where they turned over the roster several times and remained competitive. That's really hard to do and these two haven't shown the ability to do it. If the Twins were really committed to being competitive next year (and they're not), they wouldn't have traded Berrios. They would be in on guys like Gausman, Ray, Rodon, Thor, etc. They're not. They would sign at least three top end pitchers. They won't. The money Rodriguez got must terrify the Twins. Instead, they're going to build an ugly pitching staff where no one will hit 140 innings next year and fans will probably see 30+ pitchers throw for us. Again. At TT, someone wrote an interesting article that the Pohlads will resign Buxton and use him as the new Mauer - the reason they can't spend more money anymore. I'm not even that optimistic but I can see his point. When Falvey and Levine took over, they wanted to rebuild and tried to trade their best player and then screwed up the trade deadline. At the same time the players went out and demonstrated they were actually pretty good and made the playoffs. Since then, the FO's job was to supplement and support the core and extend the window of contention. They failed. Now they get to do a rebuild, even if no one will say it out loud. There's not a lot of reason for optimism that they can do that but the Pohlads will let them try.
  5. gunnarthor
    Sadly, I think it's pretty clear that the FO is going to go with a fulltime bullpen pitching staff approach. Comments from a few weeks ago suggests they are looking at multiple inning relievers. It'll be boring baseball and bad baseball. Great for the fans.
  6. gunnarthor
    I've been there for a year.
  7. gunnarthor
    It's time to move on from this FO.
  8. gunnarthor
    Nice of us to use our timeouts to give them an extra possession.
  9. gunnarthor
    This is a serious question - do the Minnesota Twins pay TwinsDaily writers? The Twins had arguable their worst pitching staff in decades and we're claiming they're ahead of the curve because of one silly definition of a pitch? We're so behind the curve, the curve is a dot to us.
  10. gunnarthor
    There's something wrong about the stats you posted. It says Mauer had 11 hits in 40 AB. That's a .275 avg. It also says Rosario had 14 hits in 45 AB. That's a .311 avg, but they list that as his OBP. I suspect your columns got messed up somehow.
  11. gunnarthor
    If the Twins think his bat is going to stay around a 79 OPS+ bat, then they should move on. I like what else he gives us but his bat needs to improve. He really struggled in July and August (limited at-bats) but his bat heated up a bit at the end of the year, with more consistent playing time. With 26 man benches, his speed and versatility makes sense but you have to be Nick Punto to get away with such a low OPS+.
  12. gunnarthor
    As a Twin? And at the position? Rod Carew at second base (1967-1975). 43 WAR, 130 OPS+ in those years. Kirby Puckett at center is still in some top 10 lists. He'll get pushed out in the next few years but right now, he's probably 8-10 all time. Here's a debateable one - Joe Nathan as a closer. Still top 10 in saves. His 2004 season was amazing. And he's 40th all-time among pitchers in WPA despite only 900 or so innings. Only closers ahead of him on that list are Gossage, Hoffman, and Rivera.
  13. gunnarthor
    I found this a bit depressing. Rosario has, in one season in Atlanta, now played in more post-season games as a Brave than as a Twin.
  14. gunnarthor
    Been thinking about that one. Looks depressing but amazing cast. Speaking of HBO, because I now have HBO MAX, I'm watching "Carnival" from the early 2000s. Surprisingly good, so far.
  15. gunnarthor
    I agree but the Twins only have one more year of control over Buxton and probably won't sign him.
  16. gunnarthor
    From mlbtraderumors.com - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mlb-free-agent-preview-starting-pitchers.html To compete for next year, the Twins should sign three guys in those first four tiers. They won't, of course, but that's pretty much the only way they'll get a usable pitching staff. If they don't do that they should just go ahead and go full rebuild. Trade Buxton, Polanco, Arreaz, Rogers, Kepler, anything with a pulse, and be ready for 2024/2025. Of course, they won't do that either. They'll end up signing Pineda and maybe another Happ type and end up with another 70-75 or so wins season.
  17. gunnarthor
    Michael Cuddyer. Solid pro.
  18. gunnarthor
    I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for Eddie. I loved that a 4th round draft pick turned himself into a team leader and has had a nice career. He struggled a lot more with Cleveland than I thought he would have but looks good in Atlanta. I hope he gets a ring this year. The Twins had a lot of corner OF depth, they probably could have handled some of it better, but letting Rosario go was a pretty obvious Twins payroll move. Blame the Pohlads. The fanbase has gotten so accustomed to it, we argue when it's time to let these guys go.
  19. gunnarthor
    Ryan - he's 26 next year. Generally, you know what you have with a 26 year old. Now, COVID changed things and he was a nice get, but he's likely a backend starter, at best. That's not really his "low-end potential." I like Ryan a lot but my guess is that the Twins will move annoyingly slow with him next year - he pitched only 90 or so innings last year (not counting the Olympics) and the Twins will probably aim for him to pitch somewhere near 130-150 next year. That's not really a front-line starter. My guess is the Twins would happily take a 30 start, 135ip 105-110 ERA+, 2 WAR season from him next year and call it a win. I do think Jax can be a solid relief pitcher but not an elite one. He gives up to many HR but at an inning or less at a time, he could be an arm. Kiriloff - I think this is the most likely of the ones but still not likely. I think (barring injury) he'll be a solid middle of the order bat and occasional all-star. MVP contender might be a bit much but he'll be a big offensive weapon for us. Lewis - he's missed two years of baseball and struggled with the bat. His minor league numbers are just bad. He had trouble getting an OBP over .300 in A+. I'm really surprised prospect gurus ranked him as high as they do. Hopefully they are right and I'm wrong but I think the Twins would be crazy to rely on Lewis at all next year.
  20. gunnarthor
    I don't necessarily disagree but if we had jettisoned Simmons, maybe Miranda plays second and Polanco plays short? I'm not sure how much second base Miranda got this year, I think he's more third, but maybe that would have opened a path for him.
  21. gunnarthor
    The only thing that mildly surprised me was that he wrote those while working for ESPN. Would have thought he might have been a bit more careful with his language working for them.
  22. gunnarthor
    So just looking at fangraphs defensive values of short stops who managed 1000 innings in the field this year and Simmons ranked 16th out of 19th in def value and had a UZR150 of -1.1, second worst. In fairness, B-R liked his defense a lot better but I can't figure out how to compare Simmons B-R value with other shortstops. Anyway, I'm not sure Simmons was worth 2 WAR based on his defense like B-R does, I thought he had a lot of boneheaded plays and had trouble on balls to his left but that's just the eye test, what do I know. But if the Yankees actually offered something for him, the Twins messed up by not moving him. I expect the Twins were trying very hard not to have the 4th pick in the draft.
  23. gunnarthor
    I think it's two different questions but generally, no, the Central doesn't have a problem. The Sox did ok, as most good teams do, against other good teams and beat up really bad teams. That's pretty usual. I think the Sox don't stack up well against Houston in particular but that has more to do with those rosters. I do think that playing a generally soft schedule (like Chicago got this year b/c of how bad the central was) isn't good for a team over the course of the year but it probably doesn't impact the final records that much.
  24. gunnarthor
    Man, what a crappy, crappy ending
  25. gunnarthor
    I think this is almost exactly right. As for Turtle, he's fun and all but I think it's time to move on.
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