Thanks Jimmer, I've been trying to think of how to formulate my concern not so much with the stat itself but the weight we should give it or maybe how we should perceive it. (And it's possible I'm the only one reading these predictions in this way when we should remember they are projections instead). According to current standings, the Twins are a 91-71 team. According to current pyth w/l, the Twins are a 83-79 team. According to current base runs, the Twins are a 64-98 team. So, going forward, which is right? Are the Twins a really lucky but secretly horrible team as base runs implies? Are they a playoff team as their current record suggests? Are they a .500ish team as I predicted? I think my concern is someone might look at the stat as a snapshot today and say, "Oh, team X is playing well/bad" when that isn't necessarily the case. The Twins offense has been #1 in runs in May and #4 in OPS (not adjusted for parks). That, unsurprisingly, has coincided with Dozier, Hunter and Plouffe starting to come out of early season slumps. It's likely that Mauer and Santana are also going to get better. The Twins had a -29 run differential after the first 7 games. They've had a +34 over the last 32. (While playing the 5th hardest schedule). I would imagine a lot of baseruns standings are still relying heavily on that first week. I know baseruns changes daily and as such should be reminded that it's just a snapshot. A team can make changes - the A's last year in the link you sent me were a 103 win team by baseruns. They finished with 88 after they made some dubious personnel moves. The Twins team today isn't the one that will finish the season. Danny Santana, Arcia, Gibson, HIcks will improve simply b/c they are still inexperienced players gaining experience in the majors. So, outside of that first week, I don't think the Twins have played like a 98 loss team. I think they are a .500ish team going through expected growing spurts - sometimes hot and sometimes cold. And I think the FO will make changes to the team as the season goes on that baseruns can't account for.