You are missing a couple things. First, you are really under estimating the cost of a lost year of player development. Because so many prospects don't make it, that year of development it huge. Whoever we get at #7 next year will still be another year away from helping the Twins, even if he is a fast riser. And since prospect burn out is so high, punting a year doesn't make sense. Second, "poor draft" isn't quite right. McDaniel posted something on this but generally when we talk about a draft being poor or good, it's just the first 15 picks or so, after that, all drafts are the same. So it's more important to get the pick right than pass on it and try again a year later with a later pick. Moving down one pick and one year is significantly worse than the pick value at 6 this year. Houston is a pretty good example of mucking up drafts. For whatever reasons, they haven't drafted that well. They are obviously kicking themselves over last years pick, even though they get #2 in this year's draft. But it wouldn't have taken much common sense to have picked Buxton, Bryant and Rodon and still have this years #4 pick. The first three will be in the majors this year and they could have gone a ton of ways with the #4 pick. Instead, they don't have much return for their picks yet (although Correa looks great) and don't have much room for error with these two picks in a "down draft."