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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Decided to grab ROKU on it's drop today. Made two purchases at 50 and 47 so I imagine it'll get to 20 fairly soon.
  2. gunnarthor
    In politics, there is this phenomenon where minorities poll better but their results tended to be lower and political scientists reasoned that it was because some people didn't want to say they wouldn't vote for the person of color or woman or religious minority b/c the pollster would think they were racist. That's probably a part of it.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the Democratic party has to start being a national party again and not just a coastal/big city party. The 2020 map for Dems isn't that much better. They need to start winning states in fly over country again.
  4. gunnarthor
    That's what they said about Phil Hughes ...
  5. gunnarthor
    I'm not that mad about the Senate - it was a horrific map. There are a lot of republicans who will always be republicans b/c they just don't want to be democrats and states like ND, IN, TX, WV etc were tough states since they are so bright red. But watching the last few weeks of campaigning and seeing the republicans end all pretense and simply go straight into endorsing racism and seeing it work really offends me. If we were better, that wouldn't have worked.
  6. gunnarthor
    Well, we knew the Senate map was bad for Dems. Sounds like we'll win the House. I'm honestly ashamed of our country right now. The number of people who are willing to vote for racism is appalling.
  7. gunnarthor
    Having seen Littell and Stewart, I think you have to put Littell behind Stewart. Wade and Jeffers should be near Baddoo in some order. Celestino and Alcala aren't top 15 guys for me right now. Rortvedt is easy top 20. He will be in the majors. Jax is too high but prospects 25-40 are probably interchangeable to a degree.
  8. gunnarthor
    They are losing two corner OFers and only have one replacement (Dahl). They need to upgrade a corner spot. And Blackmon was a disaster in center for them so Kepler could take over there if needed. They need better OF defense. Gray was a bad pitcher last year. He's 27. They might have already seen everything they'll get from him. Pitchers that can put up 5.12 eras in Coors Field aren't that hard to find. Gray obviously has some buy low value in him but he also just might be a bad pitcher. By bWAR, Kepler and Gray have been identical in value for three years. Gray has more upside potential, Kepler has been more consistent and has some upside potential as well.
  9. gunnarthor
    Yep, complete Dem ballot for me this year. First time since 2008.
  10. gunnarthor
    It's going to depend on turnout. If turnout is high, I think the Dems will role. If turnout isn't, then .... I'm praying that they win both the house and senate and I'll stay with that until the elections are over.
  11. gunnarthor
    Not sure this is relevant to the thread at hand. But comparing a top 3 pick to a fourth rounder is odd, to say the least. There are hundreds of Jake Reeds in the minors. Nothing about him is unique to the Twins. Just look at any random team from any random draft year and you'll see some college arm putting up stupid numbers and never making the show. I was looking at James Paxton so I just clicked on Seattle's 2009 draft and there you have Brian Moran, who was a late pick. At 23, he posted a combined 2.62 era between AA and AAA with a krate over 10 per nine. And he did that after having dominated the AFL the year before. He's never made the majors either although he's still trying.
  12. gunnarthor
    And their answer is always "but Clinton cheated too" or "Dems are worse because socialism/emails/abortion/etc"
  13. gunnarthor
    I think the Twins should move Kepler because they have a pretty good player in Kiriloff coming up and Cave and Wade could hold down the corner until he's ready. Kepler has been a pretty steady 2-3 WARish player in the corner while making some improvements but still having a really low babip. If his babip were normal, his stats would look a lot better. Some team might really be willing to bet on him making that jump. He's also under team control for four more seasons (through his age 29 season). In Colorado both Carlos Gonzalez and Parra are both free agents. David Dahl will take over for one of them but they still have an opening in a corner and probably still have a window in the tough AL West. They have a lot of young arms - Freeland (super stud), Marguez, Anderson and Gray each threw at least 170 innings and Peter Lambert (#99 on pipeline) got to AAA last year. Former top prospect Jeff Hoffman spent most of last year in AAA and didn't look great in the PCL. Gray's stats weren't great at first glance and he was actually sent down to AAA at some point. He was left off the NLCS roster after the Cubs hammered him in the wild card game. Is there a scenario where a Kepler/Gray swap could happen? Gray will be 27 next year. Kepler and Gray have both been worth exactly 7 bWAR the last three seasons. Kepler has one extra year of control. Gray probably has higher upside but at 27 it's worth asking if he's got anymore improvement left.
  14. gunnarthor
    I think the trades are a bit light but I like the general idea of seeing if Gallo is available.
  15. gunnarthor
    It took me a moment to realize why and then it was like, "oh yeah, they're "journalists"".
  16. gunnarthor
    I'm actually stunned that the Dems didn't use family separation as an issue. We have that awful audio of the little girl crying for her mom while immigration officers laugh. The nation was incensed and it caused Trump to back down. Make a commercial that starts with that girls screaming/crying and ask if this is our values. Have another commercial where a mom hears her son talking like Trump - use any of his quotes and ask "Are these our values?" It looks like Rep King was hit with something sort of like that with his vile white nationalism history. We should've been doing that everywhere.
  17. gunnarthor
    I spent the weekend at a CLE event sponsored by the U of MN law school. The keynote speaker was Lee Gelernt, the ACLU attorney who lead the litigation in the family separation case. It was heartbreaking. They had talked to the American Pediatrics Association as well as child physiologists who all explained that the trauma of separation would have lasting impact on these kids. The impact would be long-lasting feelings of vulnerability; thinking that they were worthless and not loved by their parents; isolation and depression. He mentioned how much the govt fought back against the ACLU - at one point saying if the ACLU wanted to find the kids, they should look for them themselves and leave the govt out of it. The judge was not happy with that argument. If the Dems manage to ever get back into power, and it looks like they'll at least have the House, I would expect that they'll use their position to do a lot of investigations into the family separation to find out who ordered what, who opposed it, etc. Hopefully, someone will be held accountable for this hell they created.
  18. gunnarthor
    Houston is a huge market with ownership that is willing to spend. That isn't the Twins.
  19. gunnarthor
    John Oliver had a good segment on family separation to remind us all how vile and inhumane our government has become. In case you don't want to watch all of it, go to the 15:30 mark to see how this really affects children.
  20. gunnarthor
    Continuing the off topic thread, I got a text from someone urging me to vote for Jim Hagedorn on the day of the Pittsburgh shooting. Usually I just delete the tweets but I did respond to that one, telling them how awful they were and I'd never vote for the GOP again. I'm sure it was just a robot text so no one read my reply but it felt good to send it.
  21. gunnarthor
    Nope. The actual decision isn't nearly as hopeful as that sounds. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/02/politics/climate-change-children-trial-supreme-court/index.html "The court went out of its way to stress that the government can still try to stop this case from going forward," said Steve Vladeck, CNN Supreme Court analyst and a professor at the University of Texas law school. "The court appears to have coalesced around a narrow compromise to defuse, for the moment, major litigation against the Trump administration."
  22. gunnarthor
    Every year we pretend that this is the year the Pohlads spend money. It never happens. Never. It doesn't matter who the GM is. The Twins have been top half in payroll twice in the last 25 years - 09 and 10, when they fleeced the tax payers into paying for Target Field. Usually they are in the bottom third. The Twins are already at about 71m in payroll, assuming they re-sign most arb guys. They were at about 130m in payroll at start of the season last year although it was pro-rated to about 115 by the end of the season due to trades and insurance. The Twins are still on the hook for Molitor's salary as well as some of Hughes. Those two are nearly 10m combined. The Twins underachieved last year and attendance fell below 2m so revenue is going to be down in comparison. I think it's a fantasy to expect payroll to increase over 130 and would expect payroll to go down. I'd bet it's closer to 115 than 130 on April 1st. The Twins will do what they always do. Sign a few middle tier guys and hope that they get an overachiever like Santana. They'll throw some money into reliever arms and hope something sticks. If the Twins are going to be good, they'll need the core of Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Berrios to make major strides forward. They can also look into trades, since they have a few tradeable assets (and maybe another comp pick they can trade?).
  23. gunnarthor
    This team can sure look like world beaters some days.
  24. gunnarthor
    I think Heyman and the expert (probably someone close to Boras) are both high. I think the owners are back into collusion and will keep salaries down a second straight year.
  25. gunnarthor
    Attacking the citizenship of Americans based on their parentage is a new low for Trump. I remember this BS came up in 2010 or so and was struck down pretty quickly by leaders in both parties. I worked for a non-profit in the south at the time and was quoted in the local paper saying that the issue had been decided well over 100 years ago by the Supreme Court and someone in the comment section said he didn't know who I was but that I should go and read the constitution. I guess those mouth breathers are more powerful now.
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