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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I'm not really sure that's true. They signed Lester coming off a 73 win season. I think it's fair to say that Lester helped them go from a losing team to a winning team. At a certain point, we're probably talking past ourselves. I think we both agree that the Cubs have created a great core through great trades and some solid draft picks - something that the Twins could also do to some extent. We probably disagree to the degree the FA signings have helped the Cubs but we both can agree that the Twins can do better at FA signings than they have while recognizing they have less room for error than the Cubs.
  2. gunnarthor
    While I don't doubt Gleeman's pessimism, he's not really a scout. BP wrote just a few months ago: "And a regular he shall likely be, as Gordon can really pick it at shortstop. He makes the plays in front of him, and he also has well above-average range. Add in a strong, accurate throwing arm, and you get a guy who turns hits into outs on a routine basis." At the end of June, Quinn Berry wrote for minor league ball: "Nick's defense at shortstop is where he really solidifies his status as a top prospect. He's not Andrelton Simmons, but he will stick at shortstop in the big leagues, a huge plus for any young player. Gordon, a former pitcher, can throw up to 94 miles per hour across the diamond and couples that arm strength with soft hands, good instincts, and quick feet. Further, while Gordon does not have elite speed, he stays low and athletic when fielding and gets tremendous reads on the ball. Overall, he is a very smooth fielder, which shows through the numbers. Gordon's .960 fielding percentage is tops in the Midwest League among players with at least 35 games at short. FV Field Grade: 55/60 FV Arm Grade: 70" And Sickels just reexamined his top 100 and moved Gordon up to 40. It'll be interesting to hear what the evaluations of Gordon say the next few months but I suspect they still see him sticking at short.
  3. gunnarthor
    Now we've gone from comparing their payroll to the Twins to the average team and you're asking us to ignore signing their ace and Heyward. That's like saying, "except for Mauer, the Twins can't develop catchers." I don't think it's controversial to say that the Cubs wouldn't have made it to 90 wins if they didn't sign 3/5 of their rotation, their entire OF and all-star second baseman. They still had a great core but those FA were a huge, huge addition. It wasn't window dressing or add-ons.
  4. gunnarthor
    I have not seen a single report that says that.
  5. gunnarthor
    Well, that's demonstrably not true. WAR is certainly not a great end-all but those 8 FA amassed 21.5 WAR so far and that ignores the impact of some large salaries the Cubs were able to add in-season (over 15m). While Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Bryant are a great core, that wasn't a 90 win team without those FA.
  6. gunnarthor
    I think the concern with Vielma is that his bat won't play at the ML level and he'd be another Pedro Florimon. And while he gets rave reviews around here for his defense, national scouting reports don't have him ranked as highly. So if he's just an above average defender (instead of elite) with no bat ...
  7. gunnarthor
    It's always nice to hear from the cheap seats.
  8. gunnarthor
    Sure, I don't think anyone disagrees with that - the Cubs have done wonderfully smart things that the Twins can certainly try and emulate. They've also used their payroll advantage successfully. I'm not sure why that's controversial but it certainly seems to be for some.
  9. gunnarthor
    So, your argument is: Ignore Lester; Zorbist, Lackey, Hammel and Jackson = Santana, Hughes, Nolasco; Ignore Heyward; Ignore the other 40m on this years payroll for the other FA and this makes them equal to the Twins in 2011 with inflation factored in? Really? (And it doesn't b/c inflation isn't that big). And we haven't even mentioned how their payroll advantages allow them to add on salary for guys like Chapman, Smith, Montero. The Cubs have done a lot of stuff right but they've been able to spend their way out of a number of mistakes. That's a huge advantage that they have. I have no idea why you are trying to minimize that other than to try and claim a level playing field that clearly doesn't exist. They have a 185m payroll. That's a huge asset which they have used very well. But it's not a realistic plan for the Twins under the Pohlads.
  10. gunnarthor
    As much as I hate WFC (see a few pages ago) it's a great stock and the dividends really make it worth it. I think people really underestimate dividend reinvestment and how much that helps build your portfolio. I also think short-term trading - unless you're a pro - is less successful in the long run. Remember that you're taxed at a higher tax rate for stocks you've held less than a year.
  11. gunnarthor
    That narrative is incorrect. Since Epstein and Hoyer took over, they've had 5 guys make the majors that they've drafted and only one, Bryant, is a "crushed pick". Obviously, too early to say the others won't be good but they are not the reason the Cubs are winning 100+ games this year. They've built around free agents and great trades.
  12. gunnarthor
    Right, but when they make a 50m signing, they go make another. Those 8 FA that have managed 1 WAR are making nearly 93m this year. That doesn't count the nearly 20m the Cubs are paying for FA that have been worth less than that or were released but who they are still paying. And even if you take out Lester and Heyward, their payroll is still over 125m which is roughly 20m more than the Twins. I'm honestly not sure how anyone can look at the Cubs and appreciate how much the ability to buy has helped this team.
  13. gunnarthor
    I was big on Cabbage but he really does need to start producing. Blankenhorn has done far better.
  14. gunnarthor
    Probably makes more sense to look at Cleveland's run the last few years - you know, where Falvey worked. The Cubs turn around involved some very nice trades but it also involved spending lots of money on high impact free agents. They have 16 guys on their roster who have managed 1.0 WAR or more - 8 of them were free agents - including 3 of their 5 starters (Lackey, Lester and Hammel). They've also been extremely healthy this year - 5 starters have made 29 or more starts.
  15. gunnarthor
    Balazovic is the obvious guy in this group. I really liked last years draft - lots of really young HS players. It'll be fun to see them develop.
  16. gunnarthor
    It's to get fans to recognize some lesser prospects. If we started at #1, no one would pay attention to #39.
  17. gunnarthor
    I was really hoping Harrison would have a break out season this year. Dang.
  18. gunnarthor
    I think it depends on what you're trying to do. Are you trying to time the market and sell Amazon while it's high? Or are you buying stocks for the long run - 10+ years? If it's the second, the only thing you should really worry about it is a bottoming out of your company. (Citibank in 2008, for instance).
  19. gunnarthor
    Not sure - probably depends on how the young hitters evolve. Sano should certainly win a few HR titles in his time.
  20. gunnarthor
    Funny, we don't see you and DaveW in the same places anymore ...
  21. gunnarthor
    https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/780462392358608896
  22. gunnarthor
    There are certainly people and departments that should stay. Keith Law mentioned that the next GM needed to provide an analytics to the baseball operations but he did praise the minor league development ops. I suspect the new PBO and GM will make a few changes this year and a few more next year. But I think the biggest changes will be bringing new people in instead of firing people.
  23. gunnarthor
    Ivan Nova seemed to figure a few things out in Pittsburgh - probably that the NL is easier - and is shaping up to get a few more dollars in FA than I would expect. Really rough FA class.
  24. gunnarthor
    A couple (I think semi-realistic) ways the Twins could improve defense (and maybe the pitching staff). 1) Sign Wilson Ramos. He's apparently good at pitch framing which could really help a guy like Gibson, who nibbles a lot. Plus, having Ramos back would make a vocal Twins fan happy. 2) Try and trade for Jurickson Profar (or another plus SS defender). He's had an up and down season offensively and he's not playing short for the Rangers but he's still only 23 and was a great SS prospect and the minor league reports said he was good in the PCL defensively. He has three more years of team control so he'd cost a bit to get. But even if the Twins didn't want to trade anyone on the ML roster, they could put a nice package together around Gordon, for instance. 3) If you get a new short stop you can trade Dozier and slide Polanco to second. Big offensive drop but hopefully you'd get a nice return for Dozier to immediately help the pitching staff. 4) Fix bullpen through FA? Horrible SP market but the relief pitcher market might be a bit better. 5) Fire Allen. Even if you're stuck with Molitor we can try a new pitching coach. An up the middle defense of Ramos, Polanco, Profar (or plus SS) and Buxton would be pretty good. We'd still have a bit of problems in the corners, depending on what stat you prefer, but not major problems. Obviously, the Twins won't do all five of those things but they might do one or two.
  25. gunnarthor
    Oh, sure. Maybe. Perhaps I was misreading the basis of some posts.
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