gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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I think you stated your opinion well. I just think that your ideas - screw the next two years and take what they give us - is a really bad one. Fortunately, the FO seems to agree and is holding out for a better return.
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I understand that. I've been investing for a long time so while I still know nothing, that phenomenon was something I learned about really quickly - esp the opposite. My stock would exceed expected earnings and it's price would fall. "What's wrong with you people!" But I still find it funny. My stock only missed by 3%. It's up today. Woo-hoo!
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I dunno. Losing to the Packers still killed me even when Rodgers was my fantasy football QB. (That I bench Cobb just added to my pain).
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You bet the over. As those of us who were happily following the 2015 Twins know, the pessimists were always reminding us that the Twins weren't good and used base runs as their go-to source. Well, base runs says that last years Twins were a 71 win team.
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I think De Leon's biggest question is health. Assuming he remained healthy all year, a 1:1 swamp would make more sense because he's shown that he's durable and his shoulder soreness is behind him. Arguably, that could make the Dodgers not want to move him for Dozier if he's that established. That said, just based on how the Dodgers operate, they won't let De Leon throw that many innings this year and he'll start the year in AAA. I think the best realistic case scenario for De Leon would be 12 or 15 ML starts and around 80 ML innings since the Dodgers have a bunch of starters in front of him without options.
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Regardless of what they do with Dozier, this team won't be bad. They have far too many young exciting pieces to be bad much longer. If they are bad, it won't be because they didn't move Dozier, it'll be because Sano and Buxton and Kepler and Jay and Berrios and Lavine and Falvey ****ed up. Right now, I'm happy that they turned down the Dodgers offer. If that's all they ever get and Dozier breaks his leg tomorrow, fine. They did the right thing.
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There's just too many unknowns in what the next two years hold. They could be in competition for a playoff spot in 2018. They could get a comp pick if they let him walk. They could always revisit trades.
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I think almost everyone has agreed that the Twins are right to take the ball and go home.
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By holding onto Dozier, you don't make a bad deal. And, aside from one poster, no one here seems to think the Twins should have taken the Dodgers deal for De Leon, although some are suggesting that the Dodgers offer may have been more than, as Steve Adams described "and junk" but without any specifics.
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Cots is the best website for baseball payroll. He has each team on an xcel worksheet as well.
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They have the payrolls labeled 2016 but your site is almost certainly using 2015 payrolls. I just randomly compared the two sites on the Twins, Angels and Cardinals. They're using 2015 for 2016.
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https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/chicago-cubs/
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Well, the 1:1 is what's been reported. Steve Adams at mlbtraderumors said, in his chat, "The Twins aren't trading Dozier for De Leon and junk or just for De Leon straight up. Dodgers will either up their offer or the Twins will hold onto him. Right now, the latter looks considerably more likely." That pretty clearly indicates that the Dodgers deal is low. What is the risk of keeping Dozier? He has a four year track record of being a pretty good player. He's not turning into a pumpkin. He'll likely be an all-star this year. You think his value will plummet? Considering they aren't getting offers for his value now, it doesn't really matter. And you really seem to be overrating De Leon's chances, which is why teams don't trade guys like Dozier for just De Leon.
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Who hasn't given them credit for trades? My god, man. Of course the trades mattered but comparing the Twins to a 200m payroll team is stupid. They have resources that the Twins don't that let's them do things the Twins can't. It's nice that the White Sox traded Sale. Bully for them. That doesn't mean the Twins should take a bad deal for Dozier. Since 2012 the Twins have traded pretty much everyone not nailed down. Only Span, Perkins and Dozier were players of a level to bring back huge returns. They kept Perkins. The Span 1:1 didn't work. They now have two years to deal with Dozier.
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You think that but that doesn't mean you're right. Making a bad trade now - and we all agree it's a bad trade - isn't ok just because you don't think you'll get a better trade later. If you don't get your value, you hold him.
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How did they get Hendriks? Because they had the money to extend Dempster. How did they get Chapman? Because they had 20m laying around. How did they get Russell? Because they signed Hammel in FA. Yes, they made some great trades but they were able to do them because signing a bad 4/50m pitcher didn't cripple their options. Constantly comparing a 200m+ payrolll team to the Twins is useless. And they didn't make bad trades. They held onto Samardzija when they didn't get an offer they liked in 2012 and saw him pitch worse in 2013.
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This has come up several times but the Cubs highest sources of WAR this year came, in order, from FA signings, trades, draft picks.
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I think the Cardinals aren't in because they have Wong locked in. Would the Twins take a Wong/Weaver deal? I'm not sure. I don't know what the future holds but I know that I don't want the Twins to make a bad deal now just because it's the only deal in town.
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Not really that different. Sickels on Newcomb - "power lefty up to 97 with a plus curve and developing change-up, excellent strikeout and hit rates confirm the stuff but control and command remains shaky". mlbpipeline wrote "Newcomb does have to cut down on his walks to reach his ceiling, but as a Northeast guy who used to divide focus among two sports, he has more upside than your typical college arm. If the control improves, he could even outperform those Jon Lester comps." They had him pretty close to De Leon in their rankings (47 to 33) and his future grades were just as good. De Leon's stuff wasn't graded as well but they liked his command/control. Sounds like a Twins pitcher. Both got 55 FV grades. mlbpipeline reported De Leon's shoulder soreness and "shoulder inflammation."
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So they're ahead of us after not having a winning season since 2012? That's some pretty strange logic. Atlanta's entering their 4th year of rebuilding. Not sure if they're ahead of us.
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Sure, Santana won't be as good but it's unlikely that Santiago and Gibson are as bad, either. Those three combined for 66 starts, 390ip, 4.36 era and a 4.8 WAR. I think the three of them combined could improve on those numbers as a group. If pitch framing is a thing, Gibson is the type of pitcher who would most benefit.
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Those guys still have high ceilings.
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It's always fun seeing that a stock you own miss expected earnings and you see it's stock price go up. I guess that only missed by a little!
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I'm not too sure how realistic their interest was but I liked the idea of Weaver and Flaherty from St Louis or Newcomb from Atlanta over De Leon. None of those pitchers had De Leon's ceiling but I trusted their floors a lot more. If I thought De Leon would need TJ surgery and come back, that's one thing. But shoulder soreness is such a red flag for me that I'd probably walk away from that guy.
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The Cubs spent their way out of the cellar. The Astros had 6 losing seasons in a row - three worse than our worse year - and have topped out at 86 wins two years ago. The White Sox are the very definition of a team constantly winning 71-79 games, having done so in 6 of the last 9 years with two winning seasons (2010 and 2012) and a disaster year mixed in. The Phillies have had four straight losing seasons. They don't seem out of the rebuild yet. The Twins have a very strong offensive nucleus in place that just needs experience. There's no reason to think the Twins can't be like the 2001 Twins or the 2014 Astros. They have a lot of good pieces that should come together.
