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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Well, we disagree on the trade comps, fine. I do think you need to find a trade that you think sets Dozier's value. You might say Dozier and Forsythe are equal therefore that's his value (I would disagree, of course). But I'm pretty much in the camp that the Twins didn't trade Dozier out of fear. They kept him because they weren't acting afraid. What you are suggesting is actually doing something out of fear. And I think pretty much everyone agrees that De Leon would be a bad return for Dozier. Those who disagree with you don't think anything remotely close to Dozier's value was ever on the table - I continue to believe it was basically just De Leon and junk but it might have been just De Leon. As for Perkins, had he pitched better in Sept 2015, we might have made the playoffs so I'm 'meh' on not trading him. I was for it before he signed the extension but understood why and was ok with keeping him. He was pitching in important games for us.
  2. gunnarthor
    OK. So we haven't started the rebuild. Got it. What should we have done specifically?
  3. gunnarthor
    Kind of off topic but what do you think should have been done at the end of the 2013 season that wasn't? I get it, you'd fire Ryan after two years on the job and Gardy. Fine, then what? Trade Perkins, I imagine. Maybe capitalize on Dozier since he's not likely to be a 3.5 WAR player again. And you have the 5th pick in the draft. You have about an 85m payroll. Ownership might let you spend another 20. But it was a weak FA class - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014-mlb-free-agent-tracker Nolasco/Jiminez/Garza all signed the same 4/50 deal and were tied for second on the SP salary. With the benefit of hindsight, what do you do?
  4. gunnarthor
    Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, Florimon, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Dozier, Plouffe, etc were all allowed to play - arguably too soon. I agree that Molitor isn't a great manager and his bungling of Meyer, Arcia and Polanco (and a lesser extent Kepler and May) are the primary reasons. But Correia and Pelfrey weren't blocking anyone. We traded nearly everyone that wasn't nailed down with a handful of exceptions - Hammer being one, but again, he also didn't have much trade value. The only legit trade chip we held onto was Perkins and, unless he is traded, Dozier. We didn't keep Plouffe for a rebuilding year.
  5. gunnarthor
    What I've been suggesting is that to view Dozier's expected return in the trade is to look at offers that are comparable to Dozier, not look at returns and hope Dozier fits. That's why I've mentioned several different trades that I think show Dozier's value. We can now add the Forsythe deal to that list. Whether or not a better deal is in the future is irrelevant to what his value is now. If you're moving him because you're afraid his value and his return (two different things) will drop, you end up taking bad returns now.
  6. gunnarthor
    We should trade them now for a group of prospects that will debut at the same time.
  7. gunnarthor
    I honestly can't get my head around that line of thinking. It's basically "ignore the draft because everyone gets to draft", "ignore the trading of mediocre players because they don't matter", "ignore trading Span because Meyer didn't pan out", and just goes to "Why didn't the Twins spend money to flip vets at the deadline or why didn't the Twins spend tens of millions more on the international market".
  8. gunnarthor
    Well, they were in the playoffs at the time ...
  9. gunnarthor
    Upton was moved a second time for a package that included Max Fried who was a top 10ish pitching prospect (although he might have been injured at the time). But I think you're looking at it the wrong way. You don't usually see 8+ WAR of talent going one way in a trade. The handful of trades that did involve top 10ish pitching prosects didn't really care if they were traded for hitters or pitchers. They were traded for talent. Which is why it's more important to look at the value being traded and go from there. There are only a handful of trades in the last half-decade that I think a team traded away a (realistic) 8+ WAR value player. And those returns were very heavy. Certainly above De Leon and Stewart, for example. You should be looking at talent of Dozier's magnitude and seeing what it got back and base a return on that.
  10. gunnarthor
    Four losing seasons in a row, 5 losing seasons in six years, those are pretty typical part of the rebuild process. Chicago and Houston didn't speed out of it, they just entered it earlier. Most teams have those periods, especially if they can't spend their way out of it.
  11. gunnarthor
    Well the Dow hit 20000 today. I'm sure Trump will tweet to take credit for that.
  12. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the list isn't perfect but the return the Phillies got for Giles was insane. That's the return I want for Dozier. Massively off topic but have you seen the amount of talent the Astros have given up over the last few years, either in trades or simply letting them walk?
  13. gunnarthor
    So just looking at mlbpipeline list of top pitchers over the years (they divide by handiness), a few have been traded (and I certainly missed some trades) although not necessarily in the years they were ranked (that's just too much work) Shelby Miller (dumb Arizona trade), Jacob Turner, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney (Dee Gordon trade), Taijon Walker, Mark Appel (for Giles), Trevor Bauer, Giolito, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb (Simmons trade), Sean Manaea (Zorbrist trade), De Leon (Forsythe), Kopech, Lopez. I'm not sure it tells us much. Levi and Mike have made the point that top 10ish pitchers aren't often traded for hitters but that's not quite true. They aren't often traded at all. The bolded ones were traded for hitters. Most trades involved multiple pieces. There just aren't that many trades of a guy like Dozier by himself.
  14. gunnarthor
    Well, in fairness, I didn't do a comprehensive search. I think Cespedes, Upton and Casey Blake would qualify but the reason you don't see a lot of similar trades is that teams very rarely trade two years and roughly 8 WAR by itself, at least in one player. So other trades have more than one player just to reach that return value.
  15. gunnarthor
    Well, considering they had a 1:1 swap available I think it's very unlikely you could have found a way to make it happen. And if you think, as others, that Forsythe isn't that much less valuable than Dozier, then thee Dodgers sure weren't going to offer more either.
  16. gunnarthor
    Berrios is the better prospect - he's about 2 years younger and was more highly regarded by prospect guys. As you mention, he was more durable in the minors. De Leon is taller so probably doesn't hear the downward plane issue as much. But they are fairly close.
  17. gunnarthor
    According to fangraphs, Forsythe's walk rate went down slightly (1%) and his strike outs went up more (4%, closer to his career norms). His babip was about the same. And he played in fewer games. I dunno, I think last year is probably more indicative of what you should expect from him. If I'm the Dodgers I'd rather have Dozier but I probably wouldn't pay the Twins price for Dozier if I can get Forsythe for De Leon.
  18. gunnarthor
    Keep in mind, dominating any level of baseball over a small sample size isn't that unusual. He threw 86 innings in AAA. Tyler Duffey threw 55 dominating innings at the ML level. There are legit concerns about how his stuff will play at the ML level. I'm not trying to knock the guy, he's a good pitching prospect and I wish the Twins had him but not at the expense of Dozier.
  19. gunnarthor
    I thought it was clear we were talking about prospects - a prospect that profiles as a future 3/4 is a lot different than a ML pitcher that is a 3/4. Sorry for the confusion, I could have been more articulate.
  20. gunnarthor
    Well, if I can trade Dozier next year and get the same deal, why give up the extra year of value? And the issue isn't that I can get 6 years of a #3. If I knew that De Leon would give me 6 years, roughly 1000ip and 11 WAR or so, I'd take that. The problem is that we aren't trading for 6 years of #3 pitching. We're trading for a pitcher whose ceiling is a #3 pitcher but still has very significant risk of missing that ceiling either due to lower performance, injuries or general lack of durability that makes him a bullpen piece instead. So that's why I was opposed to a 1:1 swap. And if Nunez can get me a BA backend 100 type, so can Dozier.
  21. gunnarthor
    I don't think trading away Dozier for less than how you value him is a good idea. The Twins offense is going to take a big hit if they trade him. If you think De Leon is a #3/4 type, maybe it's better to roll the dice on a ****ty FA pitcher and keep Dozier. I suspect the Twins can trade Dozier later and get something akin to the #70 baseball prospect.
  22. gunnarthor
    From a baseball fan, not necessarily a Twins fan, it would be really interesting if the Giants were to now get involved and acquire Dozier. Dozier would be the most hated (position) player in a pretty good rivalry. (And the Giants top of the batting order would be Span, Nunez, Dozier). Not sure how much interest SF would actually have since they have Panik but from a narrative perspective, it's great.
  23. gunnarthor
    Yeah, there really isn't any reason to doubt Steve Adams characterization of the Dodgers offer to the Twins as De Leon "and junk."
  24. gunnarthor
    I don't disagree but it can be overstated as well.
  25. gunnarthor
    No, just that we're overly weighing the effect of good defense. The bat is still far more important. A bad glove, good hitting team is going to be better than a good glove/bad hitting team. Ideally, you want both but unless Polanco is a historically bad defender, his effect for a few months won't move the needle much.
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