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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Well good luck to all of them
  2. gunnarthor
    Another degree? You know the Librarian isn't a real job, right?
  3. gunnarthor
    Nice write up. I think we might need to pump the breaks a bit on Gonsalves. He's nice but he still probably profiles as a #3 type. I like him a lot but we might be over ranking him a bit. That said, with him, Romero and Jay in the top five, we have some impressive arms. It's unlikely that they all reach their ceiling of course but those are nice chips to have. Let's see where Jay is a year from now before we worry too much about his future role. Romero's break-out has been fun to watch. I really hope he can stay healthy. I'd probably have him #2 in front of Gonsalves. I think Gordon is clearly our #1 prospect right now but I'd like to see him draw a few more walks. Kiriloff is a fun pick but far away. But his bat really could be special. He'll be fun to watch. I think he's probably our best true hitter prospect we've had since Sano.
  4. gunnarthor
    Maddux was also in AAA at 20 ....
  5. gunnarthor
    On Stewart, I wonder if a workable comp for him becomes Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey could hit 94-95 and got a lot of ground balls - although Stewart seems to be better at that. Pelfrey was never a big strike out guy but did turn in a nice enough 10+ year ML career. They can't all turn into all-stars but if Stewart can be a slightly healthier, slightly better Pelfrey, that's not that bad. He's been pretty durable so far. I've said it a lot but I really liked the Blankenhorn/Cabbage picks and while Cabbage is lagging, Blankenhorn is doing very well. I think, for all the griping we do about our scouts, they've found some nice young players these last few years and/or Steil's changes in the farm have really helped. Javier is probably a bit too high but I like him. He's just too raw to be a top 10 guy right now. I'm probably a bit more conservative on Diaz, too. Maybe should be in the 10-15 range for now. To make it to the bigs, he's going to have to be an elite bat and he needs to work on plate discipline a bit. But the Twins do have some power in the minors. That's always fun. Why wasn't Mejia brought up in Sept? Was he hurt? Seems like a good place in the rankings for him and it was a solid trade. Hopefully he can provide us with some stability in the rotation next year.
  6. gunnarthor
    I liked the Burdi pick but until he can remain healthy, he's really nothing. I don't like that he missed the entire season and didn't need surgery. That seems like maybe we missed something and next year he will need surgery. Hope that doesn't happen. I like Wade. He gets on base a lot. That's a good thing. Ynoa is exciting and should be fun to watch develop. He's far away but could be a real stud. I'm far less enthusiastic about Jorge. I think you have him ranked too high. And Palka's a nice lottery ticket. Like Walker, he probably can't get the strike outs under control but if he does... wow.
  7. gunnarthor
    We're a bit on the conservative side with our investments - as I've mentioned frequently, I love big dividend stocks. We have a lot in index funds that track the S&P, which grow at about 7-8% but also reinvests in itself. I think on average over the last 10+ years, we've probably done slightly better than the market (maybe in the 10+% range) but certainly not near 20% a year but over a two or three year period, we probably have. Frankly, from 06-08 I'm sure we were well over 20% and then the banking crisis happened. Over the last three years, I think we're probably in the 15% range because of a few specific stocks. I would say that as we've gotten older, our investing strategy has shifted. When we were young and dumb we bought a lot of stocks and carried a lot of debt - student loans, mortgages, car payments, etc. Even though they were all low interest (we never carried much CC debt which will kill you) we still had real debt. As we've gotten older, we've done a better job of mixing long term investing and paying off debt. So even though today our investment portfolio has less $ in it than it had before the banking crisis (we lost a **** load, **** you Wachovia), we are wealthier b/c we don't have the debt anymore. edit - I know you didn't ask about the second paragraph but I wrote it anyway.
  8. gunnarthor
    Thorpe's the obvious big name on here - baseball prospectus ranked him in their top 101 before his injury. Rortvedt seems low here and I'm not excited about the other three but hopefully I'm wrong.
  9. gunnarthor
    I'm not really sure that's true. They signed Lester coming off a 73 win season. I think it's fair to say that Lester helped them go from a losing team to a winning team. At a certain point, we're probably talking past ourselves. I think we both agree that the Cubs have created a great core through great trades and some solid draft picks - something that the Twins could also do to some extent. We probably disagree to the degree the FA signings have helped the Cubs but we both can agree that the Twins can do better at FA signings than they have while recognizing they have less room for error than the Cubs.
  10. gunnarthor
    While I don't doubt Gleeman's pessimism, he's not really a scout. BP wrote just a few months ago: "And a regular he shall likely be, as Gordon can really pick it at shortstop. He makes the plays in front of him, and he also has well above-average range. Add in a strong, accurate throwing arm, and you get a guy who turns hits into outs on a routine basis." At the end of June, Quinn Berry wrote for minor league ball: "Nick's defense at shortstop is where he really solidifies his status as a top prospect. He's not Andrelton Simmons, but he will stick at shortstop in the big leagues, a huge plus for any young player. Gordon, a former pitcher, can throw up to 94 miles per hour across the diamond and couples that arm strength with soft hands, good instincts, and quick feet. Further, while Gordon does not have elite speed, he stays low and athletic when fielding and gets tremendous reads on the ball. Overall, he is a very smooth fielder, which shows through the numbers. Gordon's .960 fielding percentage is tops in the Midwest League among players with at least 35 games at short. FV Field Grade: 55/60 FV Arm Grade: 70" And Sickels just reexamined his top 100 and moved Gordon up to 40. It'll be interesting to hear what the evaluations of Gordon say the next few months but I suspect they still see him sticking at short.
  11. gunnarthor
    Now we've gone from comparing their payroll to the Twins to the average team and you're asking us to ignore signing their ace and Heyward. That's like saying, "except for Mauer, the Twins can't develop catchers." I don't think it's controversial to say that the Cubs wouldn't have made it to 90 wins if they didn't sign 3/5 of their rotation, their entire OF and all-star second baseman. They still had a great core but those FA were a huge, huge addition. It wasn't window dressing or add-ons.
  12. gunnarthor
    I have not seen a single report that says that.
  13. gunnarthor
    Well, that's demonstrably not true. WAR is certainly not a great end-all but those 8 FA amassed 21.5 WAR so far and that ignores the impact of some large salaries the Cubs were able to add in-season (over 15m). While Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Bryant are a great core, that wasn't a 90 win team without those FA.
  14. gunnarthor
    I think the concern with Vielma is that his bat won't play at the ML level and he'd be another Pedro Florimon. And while he gets rave reviews around here for his defense, national scouting reports don't have him ranked as highly. So if he's just an above average defender (instead of elite) with no bat ...
  15. gunnarthor
    It's always nice to hear from the cheap seats.
  16. gunnarthor
    Sure, I don't think anyone disagrees with that - the Cubs have done wonderfully smart things that the Twins can certainly try and emulate. They've also used their payroll advantage successfully. I'm not sure why that's controversial but it certainly seems to be for some.
  17. gunnarthor
    So, your argument is: Ignore Lester; Zorbist, Lackey, Hammel and Jackson = Santana, Hughes, Nolasco; Ignore Heyward; Ignore the other 40m on this years payroll for the other FA and this makes them equal to the Twins in 2011 with inflation factored in? Really? (And it doesn't b/c inflation isn't that big). And we haven't even mentioned how their payroll advantages allow them to add on salary for guys like Chapman, Smith, Montero. The Cubs have done a lot of stuff right but they've been able to spend their way out of a number of mistakes. That's a huge advantage that they have. I have no idea why you are trying to minimize that other than to try and claim a level playing field that clearly doesn't exist. They have a 185m payroll. That's a huge asset which they have used very well. But it's not a realistic plan for the Twins under the Pohlads.
  18. gunnarthor
    As much as I hate WFC (see a few pages ago) it's a great stock and the dividends really make it worth it. I think people really underestimate dividend reinvestment and how much that helps build your portfolio. I also think short-term trading - unless you're a pro - is less successful in the long run. Remember that you're taxed at a higher tax rate for stocks you've held less than a year.
  19. gunnarthor
    That narrative is incorrect. Since Epstein and Hoyer took over, they've had 5 guys make the majors that they've drafted and only one, Bryant, is a "crushed pick". Obviously, too early to say the others won't be good but they are not the reason the Cubs are winning 100+ games this year. They've built around free agents and great trades.
  20. gunnarthor
    Right, but when they make a 50m signing, they go make another. Those 8 FA that have managed 1 WAR are making nearly 93m this year. That doesn't count the nearly 20m the Cubs are paying for FA that have been worth less than that or were released but who they are still paying. And even if you take out Lester and Heyward, their payroll is still over 125m which is roughly 20m more than the Twins. I'm honestly not sure how anyone can look at the Cubs and appreciate how much the ability to buy has helped this team.
  21. gunnarthor
    I was big on Cabbage but he really does need to start producing. Blankenhorn has done far better.
  22. gunnarthor
    Probably makes more sense to look at Cleveland's run the last few years - you know, where Falvey worked. The Cubs turn around involved some very nice trades but it also involved spending lots of money on high impact free agents. They have 16 guys on their roster who have managed 1.0 WAR or more - 8 of them were free agents - including 3 of their 5 starters (Lackey, Lester and Hammel). They've also been extremely healthy this year - 5 starters have made 29 or more starts.
  23. gunnarthor
    Balazovic is the obvious guy in this group. I really liked last years draft - lots of really young HS players. It'll be fun to see them develop.
  24. gunnarthor
    It's to get fans to recognize some lesser prospects. If we started at #1, no one would pay attention to #39.
  25. gunnarthor
    I was really hoping Harrison would have a break out season this year. Dang.
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