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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    If the Twins were offered Rodgers and Tapia from Col, than go for it. But it's not quite the same comparison. The Cubs were able to spend a bunch on FA pitchers like Lackey, Lester and Hammel. The Twins won't be able to buy themselves out of their pitching concerns. So if we lose Santana and don't get pitching back, we're in a real hole.
  2. gunnarthor
    I don't see how trading Santana will help us. We need pitching for this year, 2018 and 2019. Santana gives us that. If we trade him, we need even more pitching for those years. So, arguably, we'd want pitching back. But if a team has young pitching to spare, then they wouldn't need Santana. I don't think trading Santana is going to get us top pitching back. Trading one of Dozier/Polanco/Gordon might.
  3. gunnarthor
    No, but they'd be saying that Stewart is the safer pick. Kind of like how, in this draft, people are saying Gore is a safer pick than Greene despite Greene being ranked above him.
  4. gunnarthor
    I posted this in another thread but it far from unanimous that Greene is the best guy. Fangraphs has Wright #1 on their draft board and Jim Callis said he'd take Gore over Greene. Greene has velocity but Gore is way ahead of him on secondary pitchers - Hall and a few others might be, too, including Carlson. Greene's risk is a lot higher than Kohl Stewart at draft time. Stewart was supposed to have quality secondary pitches already and was seen as a relatively safe HS pick. Wright is probably the best player in this draft class and that's the guy the Twins should nab.
  5. gunnarthor
    Greene over Wright is not a unanimous opinion. Fangraphs has Wright #1 on their draft board.
  6. gunnarthor
    You understand that Stewart and Jay were both risk picks, right? Hell, Buxton over Appel was a little risky at the time. Those picks were exactly what you are clamoring for the Twins to do.
  7. gunnarthor
    I think mine is Wright, Gore, Greene, McKay, Adell but, yeah, they'll almost certainly take Wright.
  8. gunnarthor
    Probably a little but I really don't know enough to be upset.
  9. gunnarthor
    I'm definitely more on Wright or Gore but I also don't have access to what Lavine has. It's possible our scouts think he's gonna be a great LH bat or pitcher once he concentrates on one. I think he's a bit risky though. I want a pitcher and Wright checks all the boxes for me. But if McKay comes cheap enough where the Twins could add someone like Baz at 35 ... maybe I'm ok with that.
  10. gunnarthor
    Sano's power is amazing. I hope we lock him up long term b/c him playing for another team will bother me. Hopefully, Dozier starts hitting again soon. I want him to start carrying the offense a bit.
  11. gunnarthor
    Yeah, Wright and Baz with Rooker for slightly under slot would be a nice little run.
  12. gunnarthor
    Appel was probably in the Strasburg/Price grouping. Wright is probably in the Guasman/Rodon tier, which is just a notch below. Hochevar and Burlington were, IIRC, below that. I like Wright quite a bit and if he pitched all season like he had the last six weeks, he'd be the consensus #1 and probably in the Appel class. Frankly, he's about as safe a pick as a pitcher can be, he should be very good, perhaps great and he should fit in nicely with the core we have forming.
  13. gunnarthor
    Sure, some players lose out but others don't. Tons of HS kids turn down ML teams and get drafted much higher a few years later. And most of these guys can get insurance to cover some of the risks.
  14. gunnarthor
    Ugh, that was bad. That was "The Tick" level bad.
  15. gunnarthor
    I like Schwartz but I think he'll go higher up than that. He had a nice finish to the season, bloodlines and plays catcher. I think he'll go in the top 5 rounds. I'm not completely sold on your picks at 35/37. It might depend on what else is there but I'm hoping another college arm falls (Crowe or Lange?) and if Heilot Ramos is there, I'd love him at 35/37. Enlow is one of the many prep arms that I'd like to have an opportunity to nab, though. Heatherly I'm not as high on. pipeline pointed out that he's 19 and has command issues. Adams and Baumann seem like good college picks.
  16. gunnarthor
    Some of it had to be mental. If he read any article's comment section about him he would read about what a greedy so and so he was. And then he struggled in that Astros launching pad in A+ and the Astros ML manager called him out and then he had some injuries ... just a complete snowballing.
  17. gunnarthor
    I made mention of this briefly in a different post but the guys at minorleagueball did a four round draft. Obviously, they don't have the insight that real drafts have but they are probably slightly better informed draft junkies with focus on where their team is drafting so it's interesting, in my opinion, to see who was falling in these mock drafts. The Twins took Wright #1 and at 35 they could have taken college arms like Tanner Houck, Wil Crowe, Tillo or Clarke Schmidt (I'm not sure all would actually fall past 35 in a real draft) or HS players like Danner and Crouse. Again, I have real doubts about whether those names would actually be available at 35/37 but some would. The top of this draft is about 5 deep. And there's another tier about 10 deep. But after that, I think between say 15-55, the order could go in multiple directions. Like last year when we saw Dakota Hudson fall into the 30s or the year before when Buehler fell into the 30s, some players are just going to drop as teams didn't expect them to drop and/or had other deals lined up. I'd much rather the Twins aim for Wright (or Gore if they think he's BPA) and then be prepared to punt 37 if need be to nab a falling player at 35.
  18. gunnarthor
    It'll be interesting to see what happens. It's also worth pointing out that the Astros strategy isn't a complete lock. It worked well in 2012 when they got McCullers at 41 but the 2014 gamble bit them hard and in 2015 they had two top 5 picks to use but Daz Cameron might not be the player we all thought he'd be. So I don't want to see the Twins move too far off of BPA. Gore and Baz might be worth it, but I'm not sure. I probably want Wright and see what falls to 35/37 b/c there's some deep talent in this draft.
  19. gunnarthor
    I like Gordon a lot. I imagine he'll be in the top 30 or so on the next rankings. He's not in the Buxton/Sano tier but he's in the next tier Kepler-like tier. He/Polanco/Dozier give the Twins a solid trade chip if they can pull it off.
  20. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's a nice list. If the Twins were going to go cheap at 1/1, I'd rather it was still for a pitcher. But having a few hundred thousand to get guys like Eastman to sign in round 11+ would be very nice too.
  21. gunnarthor
    I'm not opposed to the idea of getting someone to drop and saving money on 1/1. But I'm concerned about the actual ability to get a guy to drop to 35/37. And the list of guys I want is relatively small. I want at least two college pitchers taken in our first three picks unless some super HS arm dropped.
  22. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it'd have suggested that but it's a Smith thread.
  23. gunnarthor
    So, I guess the logic would be: Smith signs for about 3m less than slot. Twins then arrange for someone else (Faedo?) who wants 5m or so to slip to 35 or get two guys in the 20ish range to slip to 35/37 for 1.5m more than slot each? (Canning and Lange)? I think the big problem with that idea is 1) The Twins need pitching and the college pitching seems to be McKay and Wright in the 1/1 conversation, Bukakas and Faedo in the 7-12 rangle and a handful of arms in the 15-25ish range. Guys in the 20ish range could easily fall on their own (see Dakota Hudson last year, Buehler the year before). 2) It seems that with all the high end high school pitching, we're going to see either a college arm or a HS arm drop farther than we expected even if we play the top of the draft straight. 3. While we have the biggest pool, we don't get to pick for a second time until after the Reds so they would be fully capable of 'stealing' a falling arm from us. I'd love a draft of, say, Smith, Faedo, Lange but I'm not sure that's realistic and a draft of Wright, HS arm, Crowe is realistic and probably better anyway.
  24. gunnarthor
    Reminds me a bit of Colin Moran who walked a ton in college and isn't really a prospect anymore. I think Smith is better and won't bust like Moran but it's a scary comp.
  25. gunnarthor
    I'm really excited about those young draft picks from last year, particularly Miranda. I really like that we drafted Miranda, Baddoo and Rortvedt (and Jordan Belovozic). Rortvedt is already in A ball, the other three were 17 when they were drafted. I think, after we see them physically develop more, we will see significant jumps in their prospect rankings.
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