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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I'm not opposed to the idea of getting someone to drop and saving money on 1/1. But I'm concerned about the actual ability to get a guy to drop to 35/37. And the list of guys I want is relatively small. I want at least two college pitchers taken in our first three picks unless some super HS arm dropped.
  2. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it'd have suggested that but it's a Smith thread.
  3. gunnarthor
    So, I guess the logic would be: Smith signs for about 3m less than slot. Twins then arrange for someone else (Faedo?) who wants 5m or so to slip to 35 or get two guys in the 20ish range to slip to 35/37 for 1.5m more than slot each? (Canning and Lange)? I think the big problem with that idea is 1) The Twins need pitching and the college pitching seems to be McKay and Wright in the 1/1 conversation, Bukakas and Faedo in the 7-12 rangle and a handful of arms in the 15-25ish range. Guys in the 20ish range could easily fall on their own (see Dakota Hudson last year, Buehler the year before). 2) It seems that with all the high end high school pitching, we're going to see either a college arm or a HS arm drop farther than we expected even if we play the top of the draft straight. 3. While we have the biggest pool, we don't get to pick for a second time until after the Reds so they would be fully capable of 'stealing' a falling arm from us. I'd love a draft of, say, Smith, Faedo, Lange but I'm not sure that's realistic and a draft of Wright, HS arm, Crowe is realistic and probably better anyway.
  4. gunnarthor
    Reminds me a bit of Colin Moran who walked a ton in college and isn't really a prospect anymore. I think Smith is better and won't bust like Moran but it's a scary comp.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'm really excited about those young draft picks from last year, particularly Miranda. I really like that we drafted Miranda, Baddoo and Rortvedt (and Jordan Belovozic). Rortvedt is already in A ball, the other three were 17 when they were drafted. I think, after we see them physically develop more, we will see significant jumps in their prospect rankings.
  6. gunnarthor
    Yep, I think I got the two confused. Thanks.
  7. gunnarthor
    I thought the Twins released Melo? I like Belozovic a lot. That was a nice draft pick with a lot of potential upside. He'll just need time.
  8. gunnarthor
    Let me re-phrase, if the Twins draft him, he'll sign. But I suspect that Boras has been working very hard to get a good deal for Romero that is more in line with his talent level than his draft location and might be telling teams that Romero wants X-amount. Arguably some team, maybe the Nats, agrees and plans to nab him in the second round for above slot $. The Twins might not want to spend that high so they could A) pass B - draft him and pay X or C) draft him and tell him to eat the medicine and sign him for what the Twins want to pay. Option C applies to basically every player in the draft. If you draft Faedo and offer him 1m less than he expected/informed you he'd sign for, he probably still signs but it would affect your relationship going forward. That's why teams tend not to do option C.
  9. gunnarthor
    Nice. I was looking at fangraphs sortable draft list and wondered if you knew how the Twins felt about three college arms slated for the 30s - Will Crowe, Tanner Houck and Alex Lange. Also, Seth Romero is represented by Boras which might make him a tougher sign than expected. I think I'm hoping for a draft of Wright, Clarke and Crowe or such but would be very happy if a college arm started to fall, like Dakota Hudson did last year.
  10. gunnarthor
    I'm sure they are. There are some rules against it that everyone breaks esp with regard to HS players. The Phillies a few years ago killed NCAA eligibility for a few of their drafted kids who didn't sign by telling the NCAA that the players worked with an adviser and I believe the Astros threatened to do the same to Aiken although everyone in the world knew he had an agent. http://deadspin.com/report-the-phillies-ratted-out-two-draft-picks-to-the-1526769641
  11. gunnarthor
    I think, and the draft will show us, that Preller, the SD GM, has made it clear to Greene and his adviser that SD will go over slot to sign him. That way it would make sense for him to shut down early. My guess is that he still gets the largest signing bonus in this draft class.
  12. gunnarthor
    I'd wait before freaking out. A+ to AA is supposed to be the most difficult jump and he did miss a lot of time before coming back last year. Let's see what his stuff looks like in August.
  13. gunnarthor
    We have some holdings in India that have been strong for us. Nothing in Russia, Brazil or China though.
  14. gunnarthor
    Generally, no. That's beyond me. I expect that the Twins have scouts and mechanics are a big part of what they are looking at. If they think someone is a future TJ, they'd (hopefully) note that in their reports.
  15. gunnarthor
    Man, Mark Appel. Remember when everyone thought Boras was nuts for not letting him sign with Pittsburgh because he was taking away his earnings on the back end? 28 AAA starts with an era over 5. I asked a few days ago about this Davis guy and lo and behold, he's really hitting. Hopefully that continues. He's been hurt and he's a little old for the level but he's on a nice run. I'll echo everyone else's thoughts on Thorpe, about time and hopefully he gets back on track.
  16. gunnarthor
    Yep, the reality is, we're probably not getting the best player from the draft at 1/1. It'll be someone else. So don't worry about it. Get a guy who you know will be a solid ML pitcher and don't overthink it.
  17. gunnarthor
    I used to be a McKay guy but I think I've come over to Wright. Sometimes, we overthink things and nitpick. Wright's got stuff, size and comes from a great school. He's known he'd be a ML pitcher for years now and seems to handle everything well. Take him, save a few bucks and get someone who is falling.
  18. gunnarthor
    Thanks for doing these Seth. I won't be at the book signing but it was nice of Klaw to talk to TD.
  19. gunnarthor
    I don't like the Jay move either and I wonder if it was something that the player and agent pushed a bit more. Relief pitchers get paid a lot nowadays and if he is a knock-out reliever, he'll reach FA a lot faster than if he was a starter since it'd take him longer to reach the majors. But it's done so ...
  20. gunnarthor
    Nice article. It'll be interesting to see how some of these guys in the rookie leagues play this year as well.
  21. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure that's right, Mike. McKay has been listed as top 10 as both but Greene, to my knowledge, has not.
  22. gunnarthor
    Is one of the two (McKay/Wright) considered a ground ball pitcher or fly ball pitcher or are they both about normal?
  23. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the overall record this year might be anywhere between 75 and 85 wins depending on luck but the emergence of these young players is the more important thing. I really wish May hadn't gotten hurt. I'd have liked him to get 30 starts this year.
  24. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't think any of our positions are in danger, long term, so we're going to ride it out but hold onto our cash a bit longer. I'm kicking around selling Shopify since I doubled my money in six months but I'll probably let it ride, too. There might be some good buy positions in a few months. If I was more of a gambler, I might short a few things but I'm not, so I won't.
  25. gunnarthor
    Looks like Burdi is getting his one inning at a time thing. I don't think Wimmers would take innings from him or Melo. I think Wimmers and Bard are about the same place as 'prospects' go so I don't really care if one or the other goes.
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