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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    That was a fun series. I missed almost all of it.
  2. gunnarthor
    We did make a purchase of HP in the low 50s. I like the dividend even though it might take a while for it to get back up where it was a few years ago.
  3. gunnarthor
    They drafted a few guys late that they could sign for overslot amounts and use the rest of the money. I'm not smart enough to say player ranked 102 is better than player ranked 152 on BA'd draft board. I just want them to sign the extra guys with the money.
  4. gunnarthor
    I do hope we use all our money plus the 5% over amount. But that would require the Pohlad's to spend money so ...
  5. gunnarthor
    I think this ranking looks pretty good. Both Gordon and Lewis will be top 35ish prospects next year. That's kinda cool. I've warmed up to Lewis. I really wanted a pitcher but Lewis really is the type of guy that the Twins have drafted for so long. Toolsy HS batter. And it's nice to see Gordon hitting well in AA. Now that Trea Turner's OBP is below .300 perhaps we'll have less second guessing of that pick.
  6. gunnarthor
    Maybe. He had options of going back to school. 600k is around #91 pick and BA had him listed as #95. Seems reasonably fair.
  7. gunnarthor
    Fister is probably done but he's not that far removed from being a 4+ WAR pitcher. I'd take a flier on him.
  8. gunnarthor
    Damn it, I suck. Yep, you're right. He came back and made 5 starts in low A and then was promoted up to A+ for 11 more starts.
  9. gunnarthor
    Probably not. Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler etc are all pretty young. Last year, Stewart and Gonsalves were two of the youngest guys in AA. Romero was promoted straight to AA after recovering from surgery. Barring injury, our guys seem to be promoted after a half season or so if their performance dictates it.
  10. gunnarthor
    Other teams rarely release guys that are pitching well.
  11. gunnarthor
    Nah, he'll sign.
  12. gunnarthor
    I'm ok with Gee. It's a cheap low risk move. He might be able to string together a few solid starts for us.
  13. gunnarthor
    That was the logic as I understood it. Didn't say I agreed with it. That draft director has been replaced. I'll also point out that many people outside of the Twins have long had very high opinion of the Twins scouting department, including Keith Law, who has argued that the scouting department just needed an analytical approach to their reports. That's very similar to what Falvey said going into this draft. And the draft gurus have said the Twins had the best draft this year.
  14. gunnarthor
    Our former draft director thought that college fireballers were a good bet for two reasons, keeping in mind the high failure rate of guys taken in those rounds - 1) less mileage on their arm and 2) if they can't be converted to starters, they can still be used in the bullpen. The Twins went hard on that philosophy in 2014 although Burdi was a legit pick for a second rounder. Most mocks had him going in the first round.
  15. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't say it's a weak system, I'd say it's a really young system. Right now, we have maybe 5 guys in AA/AAA that are semi-exciting or better (Gordon's a stud, Romero, Gonsalves ... Granite? Wade?). The bullpen group - Jay, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis has been, for the most part, disappointing beyond my worst fears. I suppose we should note that Curtiss has been good. But in the low minors, wow. Lewis is the proverbial toolshed. Kiriloff, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Rooker, Javier are pretty exciting and potentially really big bats. I like Miranda and Baddoo a ton and am really looking forward to how they play now that they've gained a bunch of muscle. Enlow, Leach, Balozovic and Benninghoff are all really young high upside arms that fans have been clamoring for for years. I think this will be the first time since Sano and Rosario were destroying low A pitching and fighting for the HR title that we'll be focusing on the low minors.
  16. gunnarthor
    Sure but that's probably not the right way to look at trades. I'm ok with trading Santana but the return you suggested looks bad to me. Webb is a career minor leaguer so far. If our scouts think Montgomery's legit, that's one thing. But a handful of starts in the majors probably isn't enough to throw out the scouting reports in the offseason.
  17. gunnarthor
    Oh yeah, you're right. I mis-read that. So add in his age 31 and 32 years so, maybe 800-900 innings and 10 WAR?
  18. gunnarthor
    Sure, but other teams would probably put his value at 4th OF and maybe give a slight bonus for youth and years of control. Better than Sam Fuld which got us Tommy Milone, for example. Maybe you could find another Hector Santiago type pitcher with 1 year of control?
  19. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins were kicking around the idea of trading Gordon (or Polanco or Dozier or Lewis). Not sure what the level or interest would be. Rays, assuming they put Archer on the market, would want a strong return. He's signed for 2018-2019 as well so a team gets 2.5 years out of the trade. He's only had one big WAR year - 2015. He was a 1.8 WAR guy last year despite 200+ innings and 10 k/9. I guess his home park is pretty good for pitchers. So a trading team could expect roughly 500 innings and, what, 7 WAR? So that's probably not the Sale return but more than just Gordon.
  20. gunnarthor
    I have no idea. The Rays let him start 3 games in AAA this year and then he made 8 relief appearances in AAA before coming up to the Rays. When he was traded by us, the most common scouting reports on him had him as a useful future bullpen piece even though he was starting at the time. Same song and dance we heard on Berrios - short RHP but he didn't have Berrios' stuff.
  21. gunnarthor
    Hu is a bullpen arm. Basically, the Twins traded future Jepsen for 2015 Jepsen. If they aren't allowed to make that trade, they basically can't trade prospects.
  22. gunnarthor
    I think those types of trades might be pretty dangerous. Maybe Montgomery is more than he seems but he also might be another Tyler Duffey. He wasn't a highly regarded pitcher and most scouting reports had him as a backend guy or long relief. Tyler Webb is a 26 year old relief pitcher who has never reached the majors but putting good numbers in AAA. That kind of trade has pretty big risk.
  23. gunnarthor
    I'm ok with the offense for the most part. Agreed that we need more out of first base but for our park and our youth, we're ok. I like Polanco and Kepler a lot, I think both will be major assets in the long run but it's ok if they are struggling a bit right now.
  24. gunnarthor
    I talk to my banking guy but I also read a lot of articles off of yahoo finance and barrons (you can subscribe pretty cheaply to that). I agree with Mike that you should understand the idea of your stock, for the most part. I obviously don't have the ability to fully understand how Wells Fargo actually works of course but I can say "big bank" and understand a big part of it. You can find articles on motley fool, morningstar etc but you have to be careful to understand any built in bias - does motley fool want you to buy this stock? Compare it with how others are covering the stock. I prefer high dividend stocks with a long history of providing it. You can look at ratios like P/E or PEG and compare them to others in the same industry. I like doing that. And I think it makes sense to follow the news to see how things outside of the business will affect your stock - for example, China's economy tanked and that brought down Indian stocks as opposed to your company's CEO stole millions and set up a ponzi scheme. One scenario is far worse than the other. But at the end of the day, I'm not that smart so 'big dividend' is a good reducer of risk for me.
  25. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I think Birdwatcher has it more or less right.
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