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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    They are supposed to rate the same things (how much value player X has) so, ideally, you would want them to be similar.
  2. gunnarthor
    Really fun win. Won't miss Molly though. Rosario should be swinging right now. He's just too hot to bunt.
  3. gunnarthor
    True, but Viola (8 WAR) and Blyleven (4.5 WAR) were legit good and they had three position players - Puck, Hrbek and Gagne - around 4 WAR as well. They were 45-28 when those two pitched so the team was kind of made for short series when they could stack up the pitching. Santana and Berrios aren't there yet.
  4. gunnarthor
    On the other hand, that's what a fifth starter is. 30 teams, 5 starters, minimum, Kyle is probably in the 80-100 range of all starters this year. I just looked at fangraphs pitching leaders for starters, min 30 innings, and Gibson in #96 on the list by fWAR and #92 by xfip. Others in that area include Matt Moore, Cole Hamels (he's having a bad year), JC Ramirez, Ryu, Wade Miley by fWAR and Jordan Montgomery, Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman by xfip. Sure, you'd like to have five starters who all are better than that but it's not normal, especially for lower payroll markets.
  5. gunnarthor
    Eddie is becoming one of my favorite players to watch. He's fun. He hits. He's done a terrific job in cutting down the strike outs and increasing walks. Teams have to throw him more strikes and he's really understanding what they teams are going to do.
  6. gunnarthor
    I believe they play a game 163. Didn't that happen just a few years ago?
  7. gunnarthor
    Is there a theory as to why there's a big difference this year? Random variance? Bad defense?
  8. gunnarthor
    Someone explain why b-r WAR and fWAR on Archer are this different? bWAR, the one I prefer, has him at 1.3 while fWAR has 4.3. That's a pretty big difference. I know they use different metrics to measure pitchers but that seems like a pretty big variance.
  9. gunnarthor
    My guess is that the FO wants Pickler to take over so I imagine he'd keep several of the same coaches on staff.
  10. gunnarthor
    I won't miss Molitor at all. Besides the bunting, he doesn't stand up for his players so we've seen guys end up ejected after they complain to the umps. Last year he was yanking young guys in and out all the time. I suspect Pickler in the dugout has stopped some of that this year.
  11. gunnarthor
    Nicely said. Having read both individuals work for a number of years, I would side with Souhan over Gleeman every time. Gleeman often purposefully mis-characterizes other writers work to then attack it (read his Mauer/Souhan/concussion ****). He seems like a sad guy.
  12. gunnarthor
    I think I agree - the 2016 draft class has really stepped up, which is remarkable considering that Kiriloff has missed the entire year. But we've seen some nice promotions of our pitching staff and the 2017 group injected a solid amount of talent as well. And if we remember back in April, it didn't look nearly as rosy. Gonsalves was on the DL, Jay was on the DL after moving to the pen, Romero struggled a bit in AA, Stewart couldn't strkie anyone out, Rortvedt was hitting in the .100s in April, Blankenhorn cooled after a hot few weeks. Only Gordon really looked good. Happily, a lot changed.
  13. gunnarthor
    Nice write up. It will be interesting to see how the rankings look at Littell next season.
  14. gunnarthor
    Yep, I think he'll make the biggest jump on prospect rankings of all our guys but Miranda isn't far behind, either.
  15. gunnarthor
    Thanks for posting. Certainly the OF defense has been fun to watch. I'm curious on how Polanco scores at short and Sano at third. I don't think either of them are GG guys but both have been much better than I expected. Additionally, how does SDI like Rosario?
  16. gunnarthor
    Even Keith Law has said he wouldn't use FIP for minor leaguers.
  17. gunnarthor
    I think if you're going to look at the draft, it helps to look at in some context. From roughly 95-2007 our draft was run primarily by Radcliff and Ryan, both had strong scouting backgrounds. That period didn't have limits on signing bonuses and the Pohlad family was extremely cheap. During the 2001 draft, the Star Tribune mentioned that Carl thought he owed baseball a duty to fight back against the rising cost of draft signing bonuses. So I think it's important to remember that the Twins had budget handcuffs during this period. That said, they drafted pretty well and, along with some smart trades, put together a nice decade of ML competitiveness. From 08-2011, the same financial limits were in place but now it was Bill Smith and Deron Johnson. Those drafts didn't work out. Lots of reasons why but they just didn't work out. From 2012-2016 two things happened. First, and most importantly, the bonus slotting system was put into place. That was huge. A guy like Buxton couldn't demand 8m now. And Ryan replaced Smith. Johnson remained in charge of draft (although I'm positive Radcliff had some input at least in 2012). Those drafts, IMO, have been solid to great. The drafts that have been the strongest were the ones where the Twins had multiple picks early - 2012, 5 picks in the top 75, 2016 4 picks in the top 75 - and the weakest were the drafts with less options - 2015, 1 pick signed in the top 75. And now in 2017 onward, it's Levine/Falvey/Sean Johnson. Loved the draft but way too early to tell.
  18. gunnarthor
    Meh, that's overstated. They had four high picks (ignoring this last draft since it's too early to make a real call but the early return on Lewis looks good), Buxton, Stewart, Jay and Gordon. The last three are still in the minors. Gordon is a highly regarded prospect by everyone. Stewart is a HS arm, which is the riskiest pick you can make so I'm not sure we should be too upset about it. As mentioned above, Jay is the only controversial pick (and his arm injury is worrisome). But 4 top 6 picks in four years isn't expected to give you a 100% hit rate, especially if three of them are HS guys. Generally, I think the drafts have added about the amount of talent you'd expect - although the draft strategy has left something to be desired - but there has been some bad luck on injuries as well.
  19. gunnarthor
    The 2015 draft was so dependent on Jay. No second round pick b/c we signed Santana. Our other second round pick doesn't sign.The next player taken in Blankenhorn. 2014 is probably my least favorite draft, at least on how we did it. Gordon was the guy I wanted but then we went really heavy on relief pitchers and that hasn't really gotten us anything. Obviously if Gordon and two relievers have successful careers, it's a good draft but I think I'd consider us lucky. 2013 was my favorite draft strategy draft. A couple high upside HS arms (Stewart, Gonsalves) along with a couple 'safe'-ish college arms (Eades and Slegers) and three catching prospects you could throw at a wall and expect one to make it (Navaratto, Garver, Turner). I think the 2016 might push the 2012 draft for best draft in recent years. No Buxton in that draft but several guys I think can be top 100 prospects and solid MLers. I loved that draft.
  20. gunnarthor
    Bryant was a legit top 3 pick. Schwarber was a top 10ish pick. Rooker was not that type of draft prospect. Look at what other recent college hitters taken around the same pick are doing.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, what the heck? I'm going to be really pissed if they shut him down for a couple months, let him pitch and then have him have major surgery that pushes him back to 2019 to pitch again.
  22. gunnarthor
    I liked the logic of the Benninghoff pick. I don't know if he'll make it but it's a nice gamble. Good luck to the kid in coming back.
  23. gunnarthor
    Actually, that's not a bad idea. A year out, some of those picks are looking really, really good.
  24. gunnarthor
    What do people think of Kendrick? IIRC, he was another one of the young HS bats (along with Blankenhorn and Cabbage) the Twins took in the top 10. He had real power but was 1b/dh only. He has a lot of walks although his avg is pretty low (still less than 100 PA this year).
  25. gunnarthor
    Nice outing for Thorpe. It'll be interesting to read the scouting reports on him this offseason. He was a top 100 prospect years ago for BP - I believe the guy who made the list is now with the Cubs FO.
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