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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Like everyone, it depends on the deal but I do think the the Twins should trade one of their middle infielders for pitching help if they can manage it. I still think a package of Gordon and Romero with something like Wade and an A ball player could get a strong return and keep the ML squad more or less intact. I'd go that route first. If we do trade Polanco we probably have a one year hole at short. Gordon's not ready yet, at least not for opening day, and Escobar isn't a good defender there. So they'd have to address that as well.
  2. gunnarthor
    While I don't agree with his premise there are substantial differences between Gibson and Buxton. One of them is still young and improving. Gibson's last 10 starts or so were against some very bad offensive ball clubs while Buxton was playing everyday and facing some legit pitchers. Buxton's pedigree and background make him a much safer bet moving forward. Etc.
  3. gunnarthor
    I think you have to protect Lewis for sure. LH pitching is too rare. San Diego, for instance, would gobble him up and put him in their pen for the year without hesitation, I would think. Stewart deserves another year so protect him, too. Burdi is recovering from TJ surgery so no one will nab him.
  4. gunnarthor
    I'm fine with your second point - if we can move him, great. As to your first point, I'm less convinced. I'm pretty sure if we started looking at the pitchers on the list in the 90-115 range we'd see a lot of up and down seasons and variances between level of opposition. And the Twins will still face bad teams next year so wins against Detroit still matter.
  5. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't think it's very realistic. Most teams don't pull that kind of stuff off. Cleveland did but the Astros gave 60 starts to fip's above 4.40, the Red Sox 48, Yankees 70, etc. All those teams were top 7 in fWAR for starting pitching. But that's just one random stat. Why not xFIP, where Gibby looks better? Or fWAR? (or bWAR which doesn't like him at all). The point is, most teams don't have five pitchers better than Gibson. The Nationals, a great pitching team, gave 28 starts to Jason Ross, AJ Cole, Matt Grace, Jacob Turner, Jeremy Gutherie, Edwin Jackson and Krick Fedde. Those seven pitchers managed 147ip and 0.1 WAR. By most metrics, Gibby was our 3rd best starter last year. By some, xfip, he was our best, by others, bWAR or FIP, probably 4th. If the Twins can improve that, great. But it's not realistic to expect it. Gibson is what he is, a back of the rotation starter who will have hot and cold streaks but probably finish around 160 innings and stay relatively healthy.
  6. gunnarthor
    Sure, but a lot of those other pitchers had up and down seasons. Jake Ordorizzi had a 14 start run with an era over 6 before finishing Sept with a sub 2.00 era. Almost every single pitcher has up and down streaks and after you get past the cream of the crop, you'll get a lot of guys like this.
  7. gunnarthor
    Keep in mind, MLB is short of good pitchers. Look at the teams right behind us in the Wild Card race. A lot of them would have liked to have Kyle Gibson. If you made a list of all starters last year in the majors (218 pitched at least 30 innings), Gibson is probably in the 90-100 range (I looked at fWAR and it has him at 108 by WAR and 87 by xFIP (above Berrios). Obviously, having 5 pitchers better than that would be ideal but it's not realistic.
  8. gunnarthor
    Next year will be pretty big for Cabbage. He needs to start hitting otherwise they'll let him go. I like Davis and hope he can continue to develop for us. As to the relief pitchers, I don't really care that much. Low level pitchers generally can put up insane strike out numbers b/c the batters they are facing aren't going to go much further than rookie league ball. So take those numbers with a huge grain of salt. But it is nice having a lot of potential closer arms in the system even if, individually, they probably aren't that impressive.
  9. gunnarthor
    And basically 0 WAR in 200 innings to go with a 79 ERA+. I like him a lot, actually, but fip isn't a perfect stat and doesn't tell the whole story either. He's no longer a young prospect and really hasn't done much yet. I think he can be a pretty good starter in the long run but the Twins would be nuts to expect much from him. Make him be a pleasant surprise this year. He'll start in AAA and force his way up by results.
  10. gunnarthor
    I'd go with Gordon
  11. gunnarthor
    Woah. I agree with everything Thrylos said.
  12. gunnarthor
    To my eye test, for just range, I think it goes Buxton, Rosario, Granite, Kepler, Adrianza, Grossman. But I think the advanced stats like Kepler and dislike Rosario a lot more than I do.
  13. gunnarthor
    The only significant change we might see before opening day is if the Twins decide to move Sano off of third base. Not sure what other options they have - obviously Escobar could get first crack but I'm not sold on him being a starter for a season and his defense might not be an upgrade. There isn't much on mlbtraderumor's free agent tracker for third base but Logan Forsythe got good marks at third base, although he didn't play it much. The Dodgers have an option year on him for only 8.5m but he wasn't great this year but he got better as the year went on. They probably still pick up the option though. After that, there isn't much. Baltimore probably doesn't pick up JJ Hardy's option but do the Twins want to bet on a 35 year old shortstop (decent marks still) moving to third? So I would guess we stick with the Sano/Escobar/other UI for this year. Or we trade for Machado. I'm sure that's in the cards.
  14. gunnarthor
    Why trade Sano? The idea is you want to build around the current ML nucleus of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios. That's your foundation. You trade other guys to help that foundation. Twins have enough parts to do that if they wanted to without taking one of those guys.
  15. gunnarthor
    So, a starting 3 WARish RF, three top 100 prospects (two in the top 40) and a high end lottery ticket? That seems a bit high for Archer. Archer's a solid pitcher but fWAR likes him a lot more than bWAR (which considered him a 1.2 WAR pitcher last year).
  16. gunnarthor
    Ignoring everything else, I do think a trade is a good idea. No way is Colorado (87 win team that lost WC game) going to move Gray. But DeGrom should be on the block. Nelson could be but Milwaukee was good last year but selling high on Nelson could make sense. If Tampa is going to trade its pitchers, Archer would be a big get. The Twins could also target guys who aren't established but who we internally rank high. Cubs got a steal with Arrieta a few years back.
  17. gunnarthor
    There are a couple problems with that idea. First, it would require the Pohlads to rewrite the AAV of starting pitchers (and bring all other contracts up, as well). With a hoard of young talent in our system, they want to keep salaries down. If pitchers like Darvish are making 30+ million (Darvish is good but he's only had one 4+ WAR season and only one season with more than 200ip), a solid #3 type like Berrios would make a killing in arb, let alone his own free agency. For Darvish, his agent would probably oppose that deal since he could 50m more in guaranteed money now rather than risking his health on a second bet at age 34 or 35. The agent is probably going to seek player opt outs after a few years (like Grienke and Cueto got) but not allow them for the team.
  18. gunnarthor
    Congrats to both Dozier and Buxton.
  19. gunnarthor
    I guess it just depends on the cost. All could be useful in some way.
  20. gunnarthor
    Sounds like Rick Anderson, doesn't he? But it makes sense, with that defense, don't walk guys. We'll see how he does. I think we're at a point where we have to grade the new FO on these moves but give them time to work out first.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't even think it's close. Take Hill out of Dodger stadium and his 89mph avg fastball, his flyball tendencies, his HR tendenices and it's not even a debate. You have to really love fip to think Hill is better.
  22. gunnarthor
    I disagree. You just have to accept that there will be misses. If Gonsalves went in the first round and Stewart went in the fourth, would that change how you view that draft? Pitchers are a quantity game. Stewart was definitely the right pick. I see arguments against the Jay pick but still understand it.
  23. gunnarthor
    Actually, as you know, if he's a viable reliever, he'll still be viable for his draft spot. Baseball drafts are really, really hard.
  24. gunnarthor
    That's a hell of a qualifier. Over the past two years, Hill has put up a 149 ERA+ in 246 innings while pitching in the NL in an extremely good pitching ball park. He's amassed 3.5 WAR. Santana has pitched in a hitters park in the AL the last two years and put up 8.4 WAR while throwing 393 innings with a 131 ERA+. I can't see how anyone can make a claim that Hill is an ace but Santana is not. And Hill got rocked in his first start this post-season too. Rate stats are nice but you're taking them a bit too far.
  25. gunnarthor
    Are we really convinced on Lamet? He wasn't exactly a highly thought of prospect. He pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks in the country. In 21 starts, he amassed less than 0.5 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. His home/away splits weren't quite as big as Rich Hill but they were big. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys but he pitched in the NL. He had a low babip (that gets mentioned sometimes when we talk about Twins pitchers) and is a big flyball pitcher and gave up HR's at a worse pace than even Bartolo Colon. We really think this guy is worth two top 100 prospects?
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