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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    This seems pretty light for Sano. I don't see what he gains from giving up prime earning years at such a discount.
  2. gunnarthor
    Payroll is the big question. I think we'll have a payroll around 110m which gives us about 20m to play with in free agency. But someone posted Forbes estimates of revenue for the Twins and if that was correct and if Twins still use 52% of revenue for payroll (as opposed to all monies spent on salaries such as draft and international bonuses) then our payroll could be closer to 140m.
  3. gunnarthor
    It's a drop in the bucket compared to the owners.
  4. gunnarthor
    No. He just came off a 5 WAR season as his agent knows. The reason the Twins want to extend him is because they know (and his agent knows they know) that Buxton is an elite player. Buxton is going to get paid a lot the next few years through arbitration. The numbers you suggest are probably low but even if they were 100% correct, he'll get that money regardless of whether he signs an extension now. The only way he doesn't get that money is if he suffers a career ending injury. If not, he's set. He's already made 6m in a signing bonus and over a million in salary. Plus he has endorsement contracts. Hopefully he's got a smart business guy watching his funds. There should be no reason for him to give up three years of free agency for 54m, as you suggest. Machado and Harper are going to break baseball's salary structure next offseason and Buxton is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that.
  5. gunnarthor
    I think Buxton would get a lot more than 100m. He's much closer to Trout's contract than Upton's, which is 7 years old already and he signed it coming off a down year. Buxton was a 5 WAR player this year and everyone thinks this will be his worst year for some time. He's going to be a FA at 28. He has no incentive to give away his age 28-30 years for essentially a promise of 24m through his arbitration years - which are also set too low by probably 10m. When he gets to FA, he's going to be one of the 10 highest paid players in baseball. And it probably won't be by the Pohlads.
  6. gunnarthor
    There is no reason for Buxton to sign such a team friendly deal.
  7. gunnarthor
    I wonder if that's just cyclical or a new trend. 15 this year and 15 last year but 28 in 2015 and well over 30 in 2014 and 2013. I honestly don't know but would guess it's just more random than anything. Right now teams might be overly reliant on bullpen + a shortage of good pitchers = less starting pitcher innings. But those things can change. I think on the Twins staff Santana, Berrios (185 innings this year) and even Gibson (195 innings in 2015) could throw 200 innings in a season in a good year so we'll see.
  8. gunnarthor
    I'm pretty sure the science of PED use has only continued to grow. Seeing how much PEDs are affecting other sports, I think it would be naive to think baseball isn't in a similar position. I'd bet that at somewhere around half the players are taking some sort of illegal PED now.
  9. gunnarthor
    The A's?
  10. gunnarthor
    Pretty sure 25ip in the post-season isn't a big enough sample size to mean anything. I'd love to have 5 starting pitchers who could throw 200+ innings and put up 4.5 WAR. I'd happily take my chances with that rotation.
  11. gunnarthor
    There's another stat, WPA, that's supposed to measure how a player helped in their opportunities. It's not a predictive stat or a rate stat, it just measures (do varying degrees of accuracy) how a player influenced a game/season. By that stat, Ervin still wins.
  12. gunnarthor
    Sure they could. They'd probably win several. It's funny. Anytime a Twins pitcher doesn't do well in the playoffs it's because he doesn't strike out enough guys (even though our soft tossing guys did pretty well) and when other teams strike out pitchers get blown out, it's not a problem. Twins need good pitchers. Good pitchers come in many different forms. Sure, the best pitchers tend to be strike out pitchers but that doesn't mean only strike out pitchers are good. And strike out pitchers are expensive. I'm not saying we should ignore that, of course. But if we could get a Dallas Kuechel or two, that'd be just fine.
  13. gunnarthor
    I think we have to be careful with pitchers. Outside of the Roid era, most pitchers (not all) are usually done around 32. Obviously, there are exceptions and PED use is still happening but pitchers fall off a cliff faster than most realize. Lynn might be worth 3 WAR next year, 2 the following year and worth nothing over the rest of it. I think I'd rather trade for a younger pitcher or maybe take someone like Vargas on a one year deal while we wait for Gonsalves and Romero to come in. That said, I'm sure I'll be the first cheerleading Lynn's signing if it happens.
  14. gunnarthor
    My hope is that the FO discussed some issues they had with his managing before he resigned. I think the fact that they fired Allen plus the addition of Pickler and Rowson last year means this FO is still going to push for better voices in the dugout.
  15. gunnarthor
    Yep, those innings and complete games were big. Hopefully, Berrios has a bunch next year.
  16. gunnarthor
    I'm opposed to the move and hope greatly that the Twins win the world series.
  17. gunnarthor
    I think this is a mistake. Besides bunting, Molitor had a lot of problems. This should have been a time for the new FO to make a move but so far they have not done much at all. This should be a mark against them which are starting to add up.
  18. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it's getting hit pretty hard. Over 20% in two days, or so. uff-da. Short sellers suck. If I had cash on hand, I'd probably buy some more at 90 but I don't.
  19. gunnarthor
    He's still relatively cheap so I'd expect he'd be back in a reduced role. I think part time DH/OF/bench bat works for him. He gets on base which is a good thing. I think Sano is going to get a lot of games as the DH next year.
  20. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't like that a short seller is causing the concern but I'm not completely sure their critiques aren't at least somewhat valid. But I'll hold for now.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that pissed me off. I knew he was gonna hit a HR after he didn't get run up. But it is what it is. I remember a Vikings playoff game years ago - 1990? - where we were on the road at SF and driving. Wade Wilson threw a pass for a huge gain or maybe even a touchdown but the refs called it back saying Wilson was "in the grasp" of the defensive player, who was literally only holding his foot. It was an egregious call. And the Vikings ended up punting, SF scored and the entire game changed and I was positive that that call changed the entire game. I was probably wrong but I still remember it. So, anyway, the Yankees were the better team and that means that the little things have to go our way. When they don't, it's a lot harder to upset them.
  22. gunnarthor
    Man, that loss hurt more than I thought it would. But good season.
  23. gunnarthor
    Twin fans deserve some karma. We got bounced year after year by PED loaded teams. We're due for a nice win that ****s over Yankee fans and to do that behind a pitcher with a PED suspension on his sheet would be perfect.
  24. gunnarthor
    I'm pretty sure everyone here thinks the Twins will lose in the WC round. But would I rather have Kintzler closing out games in the post season than have Tyler Watson in the system? Yes. Just because we got *something* for Kintzler doesn't mean it was a good trade for us. Watson has some upside - I don't hate it, he's a good sized pitcher with real upside - but I'd rather have the MLer. Some of it is hindsight but I'm also concerned about how the FO got to this decision.
  25. gunnarthor
    I'm pretty sure trying to compare the Yankees situation to the Twins will never work. There are far too many problems with that.
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