gunnarthor

I'm glad he's that excited about Kiriloff's bat. Should be a big year for him in AA. Maybe he cracks the majors.

Actually it would probably be better if we divided up the moves - a lot of the transnational moves - trades, drafts, etc have left me a bit cool and that's probably more about Levine. Some other stuff - institutional matters, promoting Sean Johnson and Brad Steil, some coaching changes etc are probably more Falvey and I'm more confident in. I hated the fact that the FO threw up the flag at the deadline in 17. I hated that we kept Molly around an extra year. I don't like that we got taken in the Pressly trade or the sub-optimal returns on most of the trades we've done.

I actually hope Chicago is good again. I loved the 02-10 rivalry we had with them. Absolutely loved it. They have some real talent on that team - they could be a wildcard team and win 90 some games if everything breaks for them. Robert is a hell of a prospect.

I don't think I've ever seen anything out of Rosario that would suggest he would do this.

*whispers back* But Ryan still gets blamed for the Smith drafts ... In all honesty, while 09 was an a great year it's also worth remembering Polanco and Kepler were not top international prospects. Both of their signing bonus were in the top 20 that year but not in the top 15. A reminder that the international signings are a real big crap shoot but also that those two worked their asses off to become solid ball players (no point in arguing over which development team should get credit).

I'd be happy if he could get some votes. It'll be tough. Cole, Giolito, Snell and Verlander, I don't think Berrios can crack that group and he and another group of pitchers is in the next tier. (He also was 8th in WAR if you ignore the innings limits and Clevenger essentially tied him). I think, as long as he remains healthy, the Twins can count on him to be a fairly consistent 30 start, 200+ inning, top 10 ERA+ pitcher until he reaches free agency. The consistency in his era and fip over the last three years is something. I'm not sure he has another level to get to but the level he's at is darn good.

Part of that is true - I even mentioned that it was too early to grade trades. But the Twins got Escobar in his age 23 season. He didn't play much during his age 24 season (I believe he had a somewhat serious injury as well) but in 2014 at age 25 he was our primary shortstop, starting more games at short than Nunez, Floriman and Santana combined. He was fifth on the team in PA. And he was already showing a strong bat - posting a 102 OPS+ and amassing 2.5 WAR. He followed that up with another 2 WAR season in 2015 although it is true that Molly in his first season as manager wanted Escobar in the utility role, giving Santana the start of the season to be his primary shortstop. Escobar still ended up starting more games at short. He started 2016 as our primary shortstop but that was his worst season as a Twin (posting a negative WAR) and Nunez pushed him out. He started 2017 behind Polanco as Molly's main utility guy again but took over thirdbase and put in another nearly 2 WAR season and again showed a solid bat. 2018 he was our opening day shortstop again and took over third with another Sano injury, and managed about a 3.5 WAR season split between us and Arizona. So I'm not sure it's fair to say the Twins held him back under Gardy and Molly - He was the opening day starter at short several times and his bat was strong from the get-go. He was certainly established as a quality MLer after one full season with us.

I agree. I was shocked in 2011. But I think the idea isn't so much whether this team is a 95 win or 85 win team - that's another thread - the player's seem to think they are a really good team. They seem confident maybe even cocky. It's fun.

Can't find the old thread on this but it's probably time for a new one anyway. Fangraphs just published their playoff odds - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Twins have a 2/3 chance! Only the Yankees and Astros are higher. AL East is going to be pretty bad this year, actually, although I'm in the camp that thinks the Red Sox will completely fall apart and finish below .500. Fangraphs doesn't think that. AL West could be brutal. A's and Angels both look good. Squint and you can see ways for each to win the West.

I like this team a lot. The Mauer led teams seemed a lot more quiet. This team reminds me more of the early 2000 Twins with Hunter always talking. This core is a lot more upbeat. Hopefully they can get past the Yankees this year!

Dude, if you're going to be all rational and intelligent and stuff maybe you shouldn't post on TD!

I think all the lists are helpful and it's better to use them instead of relying on just one. Guys like Balazovic and Thorpe don't have Duran's ceiling but both could be solid ML starters in this era. That's a really good prospect. It's also worth remembering that a numarical list is going to have flaws and it's better to look at the players in tiers. Fangraphs and pipeline try to do this more with FV grades. I suspect if Zips and fangraphs both went to 200, their results would have a lot more overlap.

I'm not sure how you can square the Dozier return after the FO held him a year too long and got tiddly for him and rate that as a win. Has the FO made even one trade as good as Liriano for Escobar? Had the old front office ever waived the white flag at the trade deadline? From 2001 until 2017, the Ryan* system had 6 losing seasons (four in a row was the most at any one point but forgetting that the Twins were challenging for the playoffs in 2015 is pretty common malady. The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not) and won the central 6 times despite being handcuffed with ridiculous payroll constraints. The new FO inherited a extremely loaded and talented team and already had one 'total system failure' season. Last year the Twins had 18 players who managed 1 WAR or more, the new FO brought in 7 of those players. The inherited players were also much better - averaging nearly .5 WAR more per player. Players that the previous regime traded for that became good is legion. The reason the Twins could move from one core to another core and still be competitive was because our development team did a great job. We have yet to see anything from the new FO that they will be able to replicate that. The fact that after three years and the #1 pick in the draft and two deadline sales we only received 3 top 100 prospects should be alarming. * it's really not fair to call 08-11 part of the Ryan years but all the Ryan haters include it even though there were seismic changes made by Smith in the development staff that Ryan changed again in 2012.

Other than the Odo trade, we haven't traded for one player who amassed 1 WAR in a season for us. We've let several players walk who have managed that with their new teams which is a mark against the new FO. The fact that you're happy with Smeltzer probably suggests you're still drinking the cool-aid a bit much.

Actually, this is one of the things I disagree with the most. Falvine have been in charge for three drafts and two deadlines where we traded for prospects. Yet, coming into this season, we had as many top 100 prospects in our system from the old regime as we did from the new. (Trading Graterol changed that number). We were told that Enlow was the equivalent of a first round pick but he's struggled enough that our hopes on him should be lowered. Some of the trades are too early to judge but Celestino and Duran are the only two in our top 20 (apologies if I missed someone). Duran looks really promising but Celestino has over 650 PA in A ball and doesn't look great. And this FO has also been willing to lose draft picks at a pretty alarming rate. The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group.

I like this system but I don't love it like I loved the Sano/Buxton/Berrios group when they were coming up. The 2014 Twins system had 6 guys in pipeline's top 37. That year or the next, they had 11 in BP top 101. What's interesting is seeing that some of the highly regarded guys in those years - Meyer, Stewart, - failed but some other guys - Kepler, Rosario, Polanco - became pretty solid MLers. I think this year will tell us a lot about the pitchers in the system. Duran seems to me the only one who could end up as a #3 or better type but Balazovic could have a solid career, sorta like Scott Baker had. I'm way more confident in the bats. I think Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wallner, Larnich, Blankenhorn and Jeffers will all play multiple seasons in the majors.

Not sure who or where this goes but maybe one of the great mods can work on it. We have a link for a lot of frontpage articles but I was hoping we could move the prospect lists into the minor league forum as well after a day or two on the front page list. They get lost and I'm used to discussing the minor leaguers in that forum so I've missed some of the updates - which is my fault of course but for ease of using the website I think TDs minor league prospect ranking should also be in the minor league forums.

Here's the pitch Change-up from Chapman on a 2-1 pitch. I'm honestly not sure but it looks like Altuve isn't surprised by a change up there. We don't see him with a slight hitch in his swing. I don't know Chapman's tendencies but I would have guessed in a 2-1 count he'd try to throw something 100mph by the batter. I'm honestly surprised that Altuve waited so well on that pitch. But I don't know if he had a buzzer. But the excuse that he didn't want to tear his shirt makes it look really fishy.

It's way too early to grade this draft but I agree, there is some upside in it. Especially those two Auburn infielders. I wasn't sold on the Cavaco pick and was a bit underwhelmed on Wallner and Canterino but some of the other picks look encouraging - Steer looked pretty good even in A ball. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/twins-spencer-steer-trying-to-break-from-the-pack/ It's worth looking back on drafts. The 2012 and the 2016 drafts are going to be particularly strong for us, I think.

Yep, quite the stock. In four years, my one small purchase has become our largest individual holding.

That press conference was pretty tone deaf. I'm now convinced Altuve had some electronic devise on the Chapman homerun, too. I was sort of joking around when I said the Astros will lead the league in being hit by pitch this year but after this, I really think they will. It'll be interesting to see how MLB and the umpires work these games.

I'm ok with this trade but I think we overpaid with the draft pick included. Probably not a huge overpay but I'm not thrilled with it.

Why are you so pissy? We do this every year. Somebody says the Twins reached and then we have to post all this crap about Jay being drafted appropriately. It's not enough that Jay didn't work, it has to be the Twins were dumb just to draft him. "Jay spent his college career as a relief pitcher, but he ranked near the top of the draft class because most scouts believe that he has the mix of pitches necessary to become a starting pitcher in the Majors. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs rated Jay as the sixth-best prospect in the draft, while Jay rated ninth on the lists of MLB.com (Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo) and ESPN (Keith Law). Baseball America ranked Jay as the No. 13 prospect in the draft. McDaniel ranked Jay second among all pitchers in this year’s class, writing that he flashes three plus pitches and held his velocity well in multi-inning relief stints. McDaniel feels that Jay could feature three 60-grade (or better) pitches in the future. Law notes that Jay could end up in the middle of a big league rotation and has four pitches, though he figures to be a three-pitch guy in pro ball. MLB.com has Jay’s velocity in the 93-95 mph range and topping out at 98. Callis and Mayo prefer Jay’s slider to his curve. BA clocks Jay’s slider in the low 80s and notes that some scouts have given it “wipeout” designation." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/twins-to-sign-tyler-jay.html Heck, in one mock draft, BA had Jay going #1. https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/6/2/8707441/mlb-2015-draft-12-prospects-to-watch-in-the-super-regionals Fangraphs had him going third https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2015-mlb-mock-draft-v2-0/

It's probably a difference of definitions. This is a wonderful old article from John Sickels about how scouts define starters by number. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters Generally, scouts talk about a guy based on their stuff should play in the majors and they grade on a 20-80 scale. A 60 grade is plus. Now if you look at fangraphs ranking of Balazovic you see they like him but none of his stuff, they think, will grade out as plus. Compare that with Casey Mize's* write up where you see lots of 60 and above grades. That's the difference between a future #1 and a future #4. So when scouts talk a pitcher's spot - future ace (that's a #1), top of the rotation (usually means a 1 or 2), #3, or backend starter (usually means #5 but capable of staying there and not going to the pen) - they are basing it on what they think will happen based on stuff as well as durability, mechanics and injury history. Fangrpahs guys have Graterol with two plus pitches and solid enough command/control so he'd normally get a #2 attached to him but because they are concerned with his mechanics, height, injury history, they have him as a reliever instead but could also knock him down a ranking as well so they'd say "future #3 or closer." In the majors though, we sometimes ignore that and instead use the definitions a bit more based on results over stuff. As Sickel's noted in his article, Brad Radke played up a lot more than a #3. Coming up through the minors, Berrios was thought of as a future #3 for the most part. I think most would now argue he's a #2. * Mize is ranked #2 in his own system behind a pitcher who grades out a bit lower on overall stuff (but not much lower) because of injury concerns.

Hate this idea so much