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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Sure, but a lot of those other pitchers had up and down seasons. Jake Ordorizzi had a 14 start run with an era over 6 before finishing Sept with a sub 2.00 era. Almost every single pitcher has up and down streaks and after you get past the cream of the crop, you'll get a lot of guys like this.
  2. gunnarthor
    Keep in mind, MLB is short of good pitchers. Look at the teams right behind us in the Wild Card race. A lot of them would have liked to have Kyle Gibson. If you made a list of all starters last year in the majors (218 pitched at least 30 innings), Gibson is probably in the 90-100 range (I looked at fWAR and it has him at 108 by WAR and 87 by xFIP (above Berrios). Obviously, having 5 pitchers better than that would be ideal but it's not realistic.
  3. gunnarthor
    Next year will be pretty big for Cabbage. He needs to start hitting otherwise they'll let him go. I like Davis and hope he can continue to develop for us. As to the relief pitchers, I don't really care that much. Low level pitchers generally can put up insane strike out numbers b/c the batters they are facing aren't going to go much further than rookie league ball. So take those numbers with a huge grain of salt. But it is nice having a lot of potential closer arms in the system even if, individually, they probably aren't that impressive.
  4. gunnarthor
    And basically 0 WAR in 200 innings to go with a 79 ERA+. I like him a lot, actually, but fip isn't a perfect stat and doesn't tell the whole story either. He's no longer a young prospect and really hasn't done much yet. I think he can be a pretty good starter in the long run but the Twins would be nuts to expect much from him. Make him be a pleasant surprise this year. He'll start in AAA and force his way up by results.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'd go with Gordon
  6. gunnarthor
    Woah. I agree with everything Thrylos said.
  7. gunnarthor
    To my eye test, for just range, I think it goes Buxton, Rosario, Granite, Kepler, Adrianza, Grossman. But I think the advanced stats like Kepler and dislike Rosario a lot more than I do.
  8. gunnarthor
    The only significant change we might see before opening day is if the Twins decide to move Sano off of third base. Not sure what other options they have - obviously Escobar could get first crack but I'm not sold on him being a starter for a season and his defense might not be an upgrade. There isn't much on mlbtraderumor's free agent tracker for third base but Logan Forsythe got good marks at third base, although he didn't play it much. The Dodgers have an option year on him for only 8.5m but he wasn't great this year but he got better as the year went on. They probably still pick up the option though. After that, there isn't much. Baltimore probably doesn't pick up JJ Hardy's option but do the Twins want to bet on a 35 year old shortstop (decent marks still) moving to third? So I would guess we stick with the Sano/Escobar/other UI for this year. Or we trade for Machado. I'm sure that's in the cards.
  9. gunnarthor
    Why trade Sano? The idea is you want to build around the current ML nucleus of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios. That's your foundation. You trade other guys to help that foundation. Twins have enough parts to do that if they wanted to without taking one of those guys.
  10. gunnarthor
    So, a starting 3 WARish RF, three top 100 prospects (two in the top 40) and a high end lottery ticket? That seems a bit high for Archer. Archer's a solid pitcher but fWAR likes him a lot more than bWAR (which considered him a 1.2 WAR pitcher last year).
  11. gunnarthor
    Ignoring everything else, I do think a trade is a good idea. No way is Colorado (87 win team that lost WC game) going to move Gray. But DeGrom should be on the block. Nelson could be but Milwaukee was good last year but selling high on Nelson could make sense. If Tampa is going to trade its pitchers, Archer would be a big get. The Twins could also target guys who aren't established but who we internally rank high. Cubs got a steal with Arrieta a few years back.
  12. gunnarthor
    There are a couple problems with that idea. First, it would require the Pohlads to rewrite the AAV of starting pitchers (and bring all other contracts up, as well). With a hoard of young talent in our system, they want to keep salaries down. If pitchers like Darvish are making 30+ million (Darvish is good but he's only had one 4+ WAR season and only one season with more than 200ip), a solid #3 type like Berrios would make a killing in arb, let alone his own free agency. For Darvish, his agent would probably oppose that deal since he could 50m more in guaranteed money now rather than risking his health on a second bet at age 34 or 35. The agent is probably going to seek player opt outs after a few years (like Grienke and Cueto got) but not allow them for the team.
  13. gunnarthor
    Congrats to both Dozier and Buxton.
  14. gunnarthor
    I guess it just depends on the cost. All could be useful in some way.
  15. gunnarthor
    Sounds like Rick Anderson, doesn't he? But it makes sense, with that defense, don't walk guys. We'll see how he does. I think we're at a point where we have to grade the new FO on these moves but give them time to work out first.
  16. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't even think it's close. Take Hill out of Dodger stadium and his 89mph avg fastball, his flyball tendencies, his HR tendenices and it's not even a debate. You have to really love fip to think Hill is better.
  17. gunnarthor
    I disagree. You just have to accept that there will be misses. If Gonsalves went in the first round and Stewart went in the fourth, would that change how you view that draft? Pitchers are a quantity game. Stewart was definitely the right pick. I see arguments against the Jay pick but still understand it.
  18. gunnarthor
    Actually, as you know, if he's a viable reliever, he'll still be viable for his draft spot. Baseball drafts are really, really hard.
  19. gunnarthor
    That's a hell of a qualifier. Over the past two years, Hill has put up a 149 ERA+ in 246 innings while pitching in the NL in an extremely good pitching ball park. He's amassed 3.5 WAR. Santana has pitched in a hitters park in the AL the last two years and put up 8.4 WAR while throwing 393 innings with a 131 ERA+. I can't see how anyone can make a claim that Hill is an ace but Santana is not. And Hill got rocked in his first start this post-season too. Rate stats are nice but you're taking them a bit too far.
  20. gunnarthor
    Are we really convinced on Lamet? He wasn't exactly a highly thought of prospect. He pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks in the country. In 21 starts, he amassed less than 0.5 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. His home/away splits weren't quite as big as Rich Hill but they were big. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys but he pitched in the NL. He had a low babip (that gets mentioned sometimes when we talk about Twins pitchers) and is a big flyball pitcher and gave up HR's at a worse pace than even Bartolo Colon. We really think this guy is worth two top 100 prospects?
  21. gunnarthor
    Would you rather have had him pitch or Hildenberger and Busentiz? And, frankly, our bullpen was fine at the end of the season and did ok against NY. Santana and Berrios gave up all but one run.
  22. gunnarthor
    In what world is Rich Hill an ace and Ervin Santana is not?
  23. gunnarthor
    Lock up the bats, go year to year with the arms. I wouldn't worry about a longterm thing for Berrios until he's much closer to free agency due to the injury risk for pitchers. (Unless he gives us a crazy good deal, of course).
  24. gunnarthor
    Eh, sure. The Twins were a playoff team this year, they could be a whole lot more next year. We'll have a better idea in a few months.
  25. gunnarthor
    Twins have a long history of giving over the closing job to guys who hadn't done it before - Everyday Eddie, Nathan, Perkins, Kintzler, Belisle. I imagine they will continue that trend.
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