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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Buxton was a 5 WAR player a year ago and Sano was an all-star. I'd put the blame a lot more on Molitor and his staff and assume that the new manager has a few ideas about this. There simply is too much talent in those two guys to assume they'll bust.
  2. gunnarthor
    This isn't surprising, just depressing. It doesn't matter who the GM is, ownership isn't going to open up the payroll. We have literally $0 on the books for 2020 but 30m/yr for Machado isn't even possible to discuss. I'm really not surprised but, gah. I don't know if there will ever be a safer blue chip FA option than him. We'll go into the year with a payroll around 110-120 and we're going to have to see the young core play better. FA is going to be adding fringe parts but not difference makers. It is what it is. Payroll currently sits at about 71. We could add Cruz on something like 2/32m and still add some relief arms. Cruz would really help the team, both for his bat but also for his mentoring. I'd like him to talk to Sano about being an all around hitter.
  3. gunnarthor
    wOBA tries to fix those differences.
  4. gunnarthor
    It's amazing how much Machado would fit this team. We could use him at short for one year and let Sano man third and Polanco second while Gordon gets one more year under him before we shift Sano across the diamond. And his bat is everything we need. So we won't even be in on the conversation. Sometimes I hate this team. I still want the Twins to upgrade the DH spot. I think we should just bring in a big bat like Nelson Cruz on a two year deal. On the pitching side, I'd talk to our scouts and look into Dylan Bundy. He had a hellish season in Baltimore but everyone did. Gausman looked better after he left (although he went to the NL). But Baltimore is clearly rebuilding and Bundy could be a nice get to fit in with Berrios for the next three years and he won't cost Lewis or Kiriloff. Lastly, I do expect the Twins to see if there's a market for Kepler and let Cave/Wade hold RF for a season until Kiriloff comes up. I know the Rays were interested in him last year and there are a few NL teams that could use a RFer.
  5. gunnarthor
    Last year was incredibly slow, too.
  6. gunnarthor
    If Rosario is going to be moved to the IF, I think it would be third at this point.
  7. gunnarthor
    The Twins are probably relying on a bunch of obp coming from players already on the roster. Buxton's 2017 started so impossibly bad but he hit .274/.335/.448 from the end of April on. That would be a big improvement over last year's CFers who posted a .293 OBP. Twins are probably hoping that Sano gets back to the .350 OBP guy he was his first three years with us. Kepler has pretty good walk rates (and power, too) but his babip is criminally low. If he can get his babip closer to .300, his OBP will look pretty respectable. But, realistically, the Twins are building the offense around these guys and these guys need to step up, like Polanco and Rosario have. They can make some moves around the margins but unless they are going to spend more than the Pohlad's have ever indicated before, the significant change is going to be with those three guys. Also, I think we should sign Cruz to DH.
  8. gunnarthor
    I wonder what the difference is between Sano and Kepler and Grossman. I can see one difference off the top of my head. Twins should stay clear of Cano.
  9. gunnarthor
    I sorta assume it's a moment thing but you're right, maybe the new baseball doesn't require a Giambi-type first baseman anymore. But I'm going to hope he can stay healthy and stick behind the plate.
  10. gunnarthor
    Derek Dietrich at second seems to make some sense. Fangraphs says his defense at second isn't horrible. He's still arb eligible, I think. Obviously, he strikes out a ton, doesn't walk a lot, isn't a great fit defensively, will be 29. But if he could turn in another 2016 type season ...
  11. gunnarthor
    I don't think he has the bat for first.
  12. gunnarthor
    More than our last first baseman.
  13. gunnarthor
    That's cherry picking stats though. At 26, Austin has managed 400 at-bats in his career. Cron had already met that threshold twice in a season. Austin had also played in much better ballparks for hitters but OPS+ shows that Cron was better - 111 v. 100. Cron had a down 2017 but bounced back pretty well. I don't think the Twins should have gone into the season relying on Austin to break out at 27. It might happen but that's probably not what you should plan for. I also don't see anything to suggest that Austin has 120+ OPS upside.
  14. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure why everyone thinks these two are redundant. Cron is simply the better player. It's not particularly close. Cron is a legitimate major league ball player. Austin has yet to establish that. And you also have the fact that the Twins have two holes - 1B and DH - and Austin could only fill one. This signing is probably squeezing Grossman out and the Twins will start the season with both Cron and Austin in the line-up.
  15. gunnarthor
    He's a significantly better bat than what we've seen from Austin or Garver though. We had a 1 WAR first baseman last year. The Twins need to get better at first base and DH. They have no one at those positions. The FO would be nuts to rely on Austin and Garver to handle DHing duties with no other plan. As for the price, who is a realistic better option on the market? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html
  16. gunnarthor
    Not really relevant. Twins could try and move Cron at the trade deadline, for instance, or when they think Rooker is ready to come up. Probably depends on the timing. I'm not sure Lance Lynn is worth anything now but he was at the deadline. If Cron is hitting 120 OPS+ at the deadine and the Twins are out of it and a team needs RH power, maybe he's worth something. When teams are finagling their 40 man rosters and payroll heading into free agency signings, he's worth less.
  17. gunnarthor
    If Rooker pushes the team to promote him (like Morneau did when we had Dougie Baseball), the Twins can trade Cron. Or they can put him at first and move Austin. But right now, the Twins don't have a first baseman or a DH. Austin will probably get one of those opportunities but Cron can handle the other.
  18. gunnarthor
    I think this was a fine move. He can play 1b or DH, two holes we currently have. He's a big RH power bat and RH power plays up at TF. He's cheap. I don't think he's blocking anyone, yet. Rooker isn't ML ready and Larnich is even farther away. He's not going to move the needle enough by himself but you can certainly see the power potential he gives the line-up.
  19. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's the main thing, it'll come back. SHOP was pretty high (160ish, I think) but I didn't sell and now it's plummeted. I'm more upset that I invested in the market a week too early.
  20. gunnarthor
    Payroll is at about 80m right now, assuming arb estimates. That gives the team probably about 40m to play with, assuming payroll will be a little smaller than last year. If the Twins were rebuilding, they'd be trading away Rosario and Gibson and Berrios (25 next year) would bring back a ransom. They aren't moving these guys b/c the FO thinks they can win and should try and compete for the central with them next year.
  21. gunnarthor
    We're not in year 8. The Twins were nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and were in the playoffs in 2017. The rebuild is over. The Twins should be thinking about the AL Central this offseason. Levine is correct when he says they aren't rebuilding. They need to add talent, figure out why some talent hasn't responded like we thought and keep Buxton healthy. Understanding that ownership isn't going to be part of the solution doesn't mean that the FO can't solve these problems. We should expect them to do so. But it does mean that the FO probably can't rely on large payrolls the way most competitive teams have. They'll probably have to follow the Terry Ryan model in the 2000s and the recent Cleveland Indians model - which is why they hired Falvey in the first place. I'm honestly not sure if Falvey and Levine can do it but I'm not ready to give up on them yet but this should be a big offseason for them. They did a good thing in getting rid of Molitor and Baldeli seems like a guy who might be able to relate to the talent we have. But who knows, maybe we get another total system failure.
  22. gunnarthor
    OK, we know the Pohlad's are crap owners. We've always known that. And Falvey and Levine know it too. Last year, Levine made comments about not being a high-payroll team. Falvey came from Cleveland and saw how the teams were built up without using free agency. These two guys understand the issue and they've both accepted it. It's an open question as to whether they can create something like Terry Ryan managed but I'm not quite ready to give up on them. Yet. But I think we'll have to see some smart trades rather than hope for high priced talent coming in. I'm not going to dump on Levine for his comments about building. It is what it is.
  23. gunnarthor
    Pedro Floriman with less glove and power but a slightly better bat.
  24. gunnarthor
    I don't think so. He doesn't have power so I don't think teams want him.
  25. gunnarthor
    I'd stay away. There's so much smoke with them right now that there is probably a better option. * I'm not an expert and have made very bad stock buys.
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