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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    If Rosario is going to be moved to the IF, I think it would be third at this point.
  2. gunnarthor
    The Twins are probably relying on a bunch of obp coming from players already on the roster. Buxton's 2017 started so impossibly bad but he hit .274/.335/.448 from the end of April on. That would be a big improvement over last year's CFers who posted a .293 OBP. Twins are probably hoping that Sano gets back to the .350 OBP guy he was his first three years with us. Kepler has pretty good walk rates (and power, too) but his babip is criminally low. If he can get his babip closer to .300, his OBP will look pretty respectable. But, realistically, the Twins are building the offense around these guys and these guys need to step up, like Polanco and Rosario have. They can make some moves around the margins but unless they are going to spend more than the Pohlad's have ever indicated before, the significant change is going to be with those three guys. Also, I think we should sign Cruz to DH.
  3. gunnarthor
    I wonder what the difference is between Sano and Kepler and Grossman. I can see one difference off the top of my head. Twins should stay clear of Cano.
  4. gunnarthor
    I sorta assume it's a moment thing but you're right, maybe the new baseball doesn't require a Giambi-type first baseman anymore. But I'm going to hope he can stay healthy and stick behind the plate.
  5. gunnarthor
    Derek Dietrich at second seems to make some sense. Fangraphs says his defense at second isn't horrible. He's still arb eligible, I think. Obviously, he strikes out a ton, doesn't walk a lot, isn't a great fit defensively, will be 29. But if he could turn in another 2016 type season ...
  6. gunnarthor
    I don't think he has the bat for first.
  7. gunnarthor
    More than our last first baseman.
  8. gunnarthor
    That's cherry picking stats though. At 26, Austin has managed 400 at-bats in his career. Cron had already met that threshold twice in a season. Austin had also played in much better ballparks for hitters but OPS+ shows that Cron was better - 111 v. 100. Cron had a down 2017 but bounced back pretty well. I don't think the Twins should have gone into the season relying on Austin to break out at 27. It might happen but that's probably not what you should plan for. I also don't see anything to suggest that Austin has 120+ OPS upside.
  9. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure why everyone thinks these two are redundant. Cron is simply the better player. It's not particularly close. Cron is a legitimate major league ball player. Austin has yet to establish that. And you also have the fact that the Twins have two holes - 1B and DH - and Austin could only fill one. This signing is probably squeezing Grossman out and the Twins will start the season with both Cron and Austin in the line-up.
  10. gunnarthor
    He's a significantly better bat than what we've seen from Austin or Garver though. We had a 1 WAR first baseman last year. The Twins need to get better at first base and DH. They have no one at those positions. The FO would be nuts to rely on Austin and Garver to handle DHing duties with no other plan. As for the price, who is a realistic better option on the market? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html
  11. gunnarthor
    Not really relevant. Twins could try and move Cron at the trade deadline, for instance, or when they think Rooker is ready to come up. Probably depends on the timing. I'm not sure Lance Lynn is worth anything now but he was at the deadline. If Cron is hitting 120 OPS+ at the deadine and the Twins are out of it and a team needs RH power, maybe he's worth something. When teams are finagling their 40 man rosters and payroll heading into free agency signings, he's worth less.
  12. gunnarthor
    If Rooker pushes the team to promote him (like Morneau did when we had Dougie Baseball), the Twins can trade Cron. Or they can put him at first and move Austin. But right now, the Twins don't have a first baseman or a DH. Austin will probably get one of those opportunities but Cron can handle the other.
  13. gunnarthor
    I think this was a fine move. He can play 1b or DH, two holes we currently have. He's a big RH power bat and RH power plays up at TF. He's cheap. I don't think he's blocking anyone, yet. Rooker isn't ML ready and Larnich is even farther away. He's not going to move the needle enough by himself but you can certainly see the power potential he gives the line-up.
  14. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's the main thing, it'll come back. SHOP was pretty high (160ish, I think) but I didn't sell and now it's plummeted. I'm more upset that I invested in the market a week too early.
  15. gunnarthor
    Payroll is at about 80m right now, assuming arb estimates. That gives the team probably about 40m to play with, assuming payroll will be a little smaller than last year. If the Twins were rebuilding, they'd be trading away Rosario and Gibson and Berrios (25 next year) would bring back a ransom. They aren't moving these guys b/c the FO thinks they can win and should try and compete for the central with them next year.
  16. gunnarthor
    We're not in year 8. The Twins were nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and were in the playoffs in 2017. The rebuild is over. The Twins should be thinking about the AL Central this offseason. Levine is correct when he says they aren't rebuilding. They need to add talent, figure out why some talent hasn't responded like we thought and keep Buxton healthy. Understanding that ownership isn't going to be part of the solution doesn't mean that the FO can't solve these problems. We should expect them to do so. But it does mean that the FO probably can't rely on large payrolls the way most competitive teams have. They'll probably have to follow the Terry Ryan model in the 2000s and the recent Cleveland Indians model - which is why they hired Falvey in the first place. I'm honestly not sure if Falvey and Levine can do it but I'm not ready to give up on them yet but this should be a big offseason for them. They did a good thing in getting rid of Molitor and Baldeli seems like a guy who might be able to relate to the talent we have. But who knows, maybe we get another total system failure.
  17. gunnarthor
    OK, we know the Pohlad's are crap owners. We've always known that. And Falvey and Levine know it too. Last year, Levine made comments about not being a high-payroll team. Falvey came from Cleveland and saw how the teams were built up without using free agency. These two guys understand the issue and they've both accepted it. It's an open question as to whether they can create something like Terry Ryan managed but I'm not quite ready to give up on them. Yet. But I think we'll have to see some smart trades rather than hope for high priced talent coming in. I'm not going to dump on Levine for his comments about building. It is what it is.
  18. gunnarthor
    Pedro Floriman with less glove and power but a slightly better bat.
  19. gunnarthor
    I don't think so. He doesn't have power so I don't think teams want him.
  20. gunnarthor
    I'd stay away. There's so much smoke with them right now that there is probably a better option. * I'm not an expert and have made very bad stock buys.
  21. gunnarthor
    ROKU isn't our normal buy. Usually we buy a stock or fund and plan on holding it for decades. I don't plan on holding ROKU that long but I saw the price drop and thought it was a good value. Naturally, I should have waited a week.
  22. gunnarthor
    Best of luck to him. It was nice that he got to go out on his own terms.
  23. gunnarthor
    Decided to grab ROKU on it's drop today. Made two purchases at 50 and 47 so I imagine it'll get to 20 fairly soon.
  24. gunnarthor
    Having seen Littell and Stewart, I think you have to put Littell behind Stewart. Wade and Jeffers should be near Baddoo in some order. Celestino and Alcala aren't top 15 guys for me right now. Rortvedt is easy top 20. He will be in the majors. Jax is too high but prospects 25-40 are probably interchangeable to a degree.
  25. gunnarthor
    Houston is a huge market with ownership that is willing to spend. That isn't the Twins.
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