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PDX Twin

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Everything posted by PDX Twin

  1. PDX Twin
    Do we have evidence that Buxton is going to be fully recovered by ST, or even by opening day? I remember reading that there was some question about that.
  2. PDX Twin
    This is a bit off topic, but my prediction is that launch angle will be much less important this year than last. The softer ball will transform home runs into fly balls and fly balls into pop ups. Exit velocity is crucial because hard hit balls are more likely to be successful regardless of angle.
  3. PDX Twin
    This is useful, but how about an analysis of how many home runs were more than 15 feet beyond the fence? That would, I think, tell us more about the likely transformation of homeruns into outs for each player, under the (invalid) assumption that they hit the ball equally well next year.
  4. PDX Twin
    In case there was any doubt before, this season is now destined to be an Odyssey!
  5. PDX Twin
    Well, things have consistently happened when the Twins have made the post-season. And those things have consistently started with "L."
  6. PDX Twin
    I know it's just a typo, but this made me laugh. An image popped into my head of a 280-pound Sano trying to stab an incoming throw with a dagger.
  7. PDX Twin
    Straight from the horse's mouth, I presume.
  8. PDX Twin
    I like the comparison to Morris. He's a long way from that right now, but that would be his ceiling. And if he were to reach it, he would be near the top of the Twins' rotation.
  9. PDX Twin
    I'm sorry, but that's just silly. Payroll is the cost of getting what we want, not the metric by which we should measure its quality. If the Twins can improve by spending $120m or $110m, then that's what they'll do. Spending more money *might* buy more quality, but as the premise of your article suggests, nothing is anywhere close to certain. I will be satisfied if the 2020 Twins contend to win an improved division. Given so many players who are likely to regress and the likelihood of a greater burden of injuries, anything more will be a surprise, whether they pay out for a big free agent or spend $30m less. Washington seems to have done pretty well after unloading last year's mega-bucks star, who went to a Philadelphia team that only managed to improve from 80-82 to 81-81.
  10. PDX Twin
    This front office seems to be working for the long run. I applaud this, though it will be frustrating to those who are anxious for the Twins to win this year. I get the point about the Twins' "window" being open. But if the long-run strategy is successful there will be a succession of windows with one generation of young players transitioning to the next. That's the model they seem to be employing and, although I'm in the minority around here, I agree that it's the best one for the Twins' market position.
  11. PDX Twin
    If I never hear the phrase "pitch framing" again it will be too soon. Give me robo-umps now and leave the cheating behind.
  12. PDX Twin
    Kepler is probably too valuable in RF (or CF) to move, but he played a lot of 1B in the minors and would surely be an excellent fielder there, though perhaps not right away.
  13. PDX Twin
    These seem in the ballpark to me, and I think it adds up to about 90 wins (depending on what the pitching looks like). I will be disappointed, but not surprised if the Twins finish third behind Chicago and Cleveland next year.
  14. PDX Twin
    I *think* it is time of residence that matters, and where the income is earned. All players (Twins and visitors) pay Minnesota income tax on the salary they earn when playing in Minnesota. If they are Minnesota residents for a certain percentage of the year, they are also subject to Minnesota income tax, but the rules are complicated for income earned elsewhere. I'm not a tax attorney or accountant, so I don't know the details. A local example, though: Portland (~9% income tax) is located just across the river from Vancouver, Wash., (no income tax), but if I lived in Vancouver and worked in Portland, I'd still have to pay Oregon tax on my earnings because they were earned in Oregon. But in retirement, I'd get a 9% raise by moving to Washington, as long as I could still buy all my stuff in Oregon where there is no sales tax.
  15. PDX Twin
    How much of this was just the live ball? Didn't overall OPS rise in 2019 vs. earlier years? Did the L v. L number rise more than the overall number?
  16. PDX Twin
    I'm not too fond of touts, so I wouldn't mind if he struck a few more. He'd probably get in trouble with the law, though.
  17. PDX Twin
    Sano might be more of a liability at 1st than at 3rd. He might get fewer balls hit at him, but if he can't pick low throws he's going to create dozens of errors for others.
  18. PDX Twin
    Actually, Dyson turned out to be just what the Dyson ads tell you: When working, he sucked, but what he was best at was gathering dust.
  19. PDX Twin
    Will those be good innings? Or will we be watching him get crushed a few more times the third time through the order?
  20. PDX Twin
    Good teachers make good students. Let's hope we can hang on to some of ours.
  21. PDX Twin
    But the Twins' (and everyone else's) pitching should be expected to improve with the less lively ball. The Twins were more reliant on power than speed (which is less affected by the ball change), so they will regress more on offense. But I'd expect that Berrios, for example, will be much more effective when hitters can't launch super-balls into orbit without swinging hard. Perhaps Odorizzi, too, if the Twins retain him.
  22. PDX Twin
    We talk about trading the "surplus" guys to other clubs, but how many other clubs have excess slots on their 40-man rosters to be able to protect them? I realize that the Twins have an above-average farm system, but overall isn't this a bit like having too many chairs and not enough spots at the table?
  23. PDX Twin
    With continuity among the playing staff, it might be a decent idea to switch hitting/pitching coaches every few years. The hitters have probably learned what Rowson can teach them and maybe a new voice would bring something useful to add to that. I wouldn't say the same about minor-league coaches, where new groups of players cycle through every year, or if the big-league squad was turning over a lot year to year, but this bunch of Twins hitters looks to be stable for the next 2-3 years at least. Let's see if we can hire someone who can build on what Rowson taught them.
  24. PDX Twin
    I wonder how much of Sano's impressive numbers this season were a result of the live ball. It really plays to his game, turning fly balls into homeruns while strikeouts are still strikeouts.
  25. PDX Twin
    I think this is exactly correct. There is currently a transition when some teams have and use better information than others. That won't last long. It's a lot like financial markets in which a new analytical strategy works until everyone else jumps in. Once we reach the new equilibrium, success will be based on getting the unmeasurables right. Examples: (1) finding the guys like Arraez who play way above their projections, (2) getting the clubhouse chemistry right so that each personality makes everyone else work harder and play better, and (3) getting the field chemistry right so that each player is asked to do what he does best (no Sano in RF). It seems like the Twins have had good success this season with the unmeasurables. We'll find out over the next few years if this is good luck or repeatable good judgment.
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