Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tarheeltwinsfan

Verified Member
  • Posts

    4,581
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to IndianaTwin for a blog entry, You Helped Design My Man Cave   
    Thanks, folks. 
    A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog inviting feedback for some paint schemes for the wall in a room that has transitioned from our youngest son's bedroom to our office. Alas, he got married and moved to North Carolina -- we like the married part, just wish he didn't live so far from northern Indiana. That post is here: https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/23701-help-design-my-man-cave/ 
    The goal was to combine a Fathead with some shelving to create a space to display the set of Tony Oliva baseball cards I've gathered, along with some others. I invited feedback to the following ideas: 
     
    And the one I chose was...
    No. 6. 
    So, next up was using a friend's table saw to rip some MDF board into 5/8" x 5/8" strips, followed by cutting a quarter-inch angled groove to hold the cards. Then Mrs. IT took over, handling the priming and painting. Finally, my brother-in-law, much more adept at such projects than me, helped me stick the Fathead and place and mount the strips. 
    Here's what I got: 

     
    I'm pretty pleased. Mrs. IT needs to do a little touch-up painting, touching up the screw holes and a few more spots. What you see here are a complete set of Topps, Kelloggs and Hostess Oliva cards on the left, plus a couple extra odds and ends. On the upper right are my Killebrew cards, with Carews underneath. Neither of those are complete.
    Eventually, I'll tighten them up so I can add some other favorites from over the years -- Hrbek, Puckett, Gaetti, etc. Probably need to get a Wynegar and some others. It may not take long for Lewis to make an appearance on the IT Wall of Fame. And depending on how full I want to make the space, I may also include a few non-Twin favorites and/or legends from over the years, namely Brock, Aaron, Clemente, etc. I don't have any that are particular valuable (and none graded), but on the wall will at least bring more enjoyment than in boxes under the bed. The total space is about 84 inches by 40 inches.
    Thanks to @Cornholio, @Rod Carews Birthday, @Wyotwinsfan, @davidborton, @DocBauer, @gil4, @nclahammer, @Original_JB, @dcswede, @Khaddie and @Puckett34 for great insights and suggestions.
    I was originally thinking I'd go with No. 8, but after coming up with a number of mockups, I was starting to lean toward No. 6 by the time I posted. So to get a couple early affirmations of that option helped firm up that decision. Some other comments:
    There were some good suggestions that would have given it a much more professional feel (and would have been beyond my capability or cost more than I was prepared to spend. A couple folks cautioned about covering up too much of the Fathead. With that encouragement, I did move the strips out a bit. They end up overlapping by about three inches, rather than the six inches I originally planned. I think that was an improvement, so thanks for those suggestions. If I was to do anything different with the layout, I'd give each row another quarter to half inch of space (starting at the bottom) to push the top row up to have even less overlap with the letters.  A few people had ideas for some additions, suggesting some autographed photos, Homer Hankies, etc. (And speaking of, I need to track down one of this year's.) I do plan some of those things with the next steps. The exterior wall of the room has about 43 inches on each side of a window, so I'm thinking of putting in a relatively high shelf for the four Wheaties/Kelloggs boxes (still full) from 1987 and 1991. I may do a second shelf with some autographed balls, but I really don't have any significant ones. I do have some other things, however, such as a Rod Carew RC Cola can and an Oliva-signed cap, etc. I'm only a few years from retirement, so I'll need to consider where to go with two jerseys. I'm perhaps the only person on TD with a game-used Travis Miller jersey. I never thought I'd buy a gamer of anyone, but when you're in the team store and see one with your last name on it, it's tough to resist. My congregation gifted me another jersey when transitioned from pastoring there to another ministry opportunity. In total, I have another 10 or so linear feet of wall space on this half the room to use for such things. Mrs. IT gets the other side of the room. So again, thanks. If anyone heads through northern Indiana on the toll road and wants to stop off for a visit, I'd be glad to show it in person! 😃
     

    And while I'm at it, I do have another spot in the house that folks might find interesting. I've been fortunate enough to have been able to combine some work-related travel with vacations and have been to all 30 current stadiums (plus a dozen or so that have been closed)*. I spent some time to create some collages from photos I've taken along the way (plus a handful from the Web of stadiums that I went to before I started taking pictures). Here's what we have in our entry hallway. Each frame is a division, with the teams in alphabetical order from top to bottom.
     
     
    *Lest you think that's impressive, what's more impressive is the amazing Mrs. IT. She's been to 24, even though she's not a baseball fan. When someone asked her about it, her response, "I don't like baseball, but I like some people who like baseball." 
     
     
  2. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to ashbury for a blog entry, Top Ten wild card moments   
    So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
     
     
     
     
     
    Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
    Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
    Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
    Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
    Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
    Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
    Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
    Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
    Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
    Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
    Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
    Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
    Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
    I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
     
  3. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to troyjuhn for a blog entry, Target Field being loud might actually be a factor these playoffs.   
    Do you remember nearly 10 years ago the "Cueto, Cuetoooo" incident in the WC game between Cincinatti and Pittsburgh. Here it is to remind you. 
     
    Why is this so memorable? It's because fans were so into this game (Pirates first playoff game in 30 years) that they mentally broke a pitcher that was seen as one of the best in the NL at that time. It's one of the best crowds to ever attend a baseball game that I've ever seen. You could tell how much Pittsburgh fans had been waiting for this moment to come, and even though they couldn't get past St. Louis that year, this was always the defining moment of the 2013 playoffs (besides the Victorino grand slam). I'm not asking Twins fans to be like this. Heck, I don't think this kind of crowd trolling will ever be replicated in the modern game again. But some people just can't seem to grasp how fans can have a factor in playoff games. Not the biggest factor, but it's quite literally the bare minimum. I don't care personally if the Twins are losing 6-2, 8-0, 11-4, anything. Analytics shouldn't factor into how you cheer for this team in the playoffs. Who gives a crap about "win probability" when a team legit came back from 9 runs down just a couple of days ago. Nothing will make me more excited from my college dorm room when Pablo Lopez gets a massive strikeout in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. 
    And this is verbatim what I tweeted an hour ago as of this post but: If I ever attend a playoff game at Target field, I will be loud. No matter what. I attended game 2 of the 2019 ALDS and that game was pretty hopeless. I still cared no matter what. Still cheered every strike out, every base runner. Games never over until it’s over. You should probably be loud too. And It's encouraged. Be loud and proud. Show why you bought tickets. 
  4. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Lewis Up to Replace Luplow (or Gallo)? Makes Sense for 2023 and Really Makes Sense For 2024   
    We need a CF for 2024 and a better RH hitting OF for 2023. I think our highest and best hope in 2024 should be that Buxton plays 80ish games in the OF next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF on any sort of regular basis. Maybe we can find  way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution. 
    Assuming Max isn't the answer, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF in 2024. We also need to replace Luplow as the RH hitting OF in 2023 as it is becoming more clear why the Blue Jays cut him, and why TB, Cle, and AZ cut him before that - he can't hit. For 2024,  Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA.
    The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching.  The problem is that we can't unless w make a roster change. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher.   There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano.
    My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. I really don't care which although I don't see the Twins dropping Gallo until they absolutely have to. I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. If he's not, well, he's still the one. Luplow is falling off the table at the plate and looking a whole lot more like even less than his career .214/.315/.429 (.744) career slash line. In his last 7 games he's got 18 ABs and is hitting .111/.200/.333. All of this when he almost exclusively plays against LH pitching. He's 30 on 9/26. He's not on next year's team and not a future player on any sort of contending team.
    I would bring up Martin now. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now.  I have to think Martin can hit some, I know he can run some, and I'd wager that he can at least come close to meeting or exceeding the Luplow threshold. We have a unique opportunity now to test/expose/develop young talent at the MLB level while still winning the division. Let's take that opportunity now. By the way,. all of this also applies to putting Varland and Funderburk in the bullpen TODAY but that's a topic for another thread. . . 
  5. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan got a reaction from Blyleven2011 for a blog entry, Twins should act quickly and sign Trey Mancini and dfa Joey Gallo.   
    Career against left handed pitchers  BA - .262; OPB - .328; SLG - .449; OPS - .777.  This year has been worse as expected. He can play 1B, OF and DH.  Mancini's fielding is not as good as Gallo's but he would be an extremely low cost, RH hitter. Mancini, a survivor of colon cancer, was one of the first to reach out to Liam Hendricks, when Hendricks was diagnosed with cancer. A classy move.  
  6. Love
    tarheeltwinsfan got a reaction from Bob Twins Fan Since 61 for a blog entry, Twins should act quickly and sign Trey Mancini and dfa Joey Gallo.   
    Career against left handed pitchers  BA - .262; OPB - .328; SLG - .449; OPS - .777.  This year has been worse as expected. He can play 1B, OF and DH.  Mancini's fielding is not as good as Gallo's but he would be an extremely low cost, RH hitter. Mancini, a survivor of colon cancer, was one of the first to reach out to Liam Hendricks, when Hendricks was diagnosed with cancer. A classy move.  
  7. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan got a reaction from Hashim for a blog entry, Twins should act quickly and sign Trey Mancini and dfa Joey Gallo.   
    Career against left handed pitchers  BA - .262; OPB - .328; SLG - .449; OPS - .777.  This year has been worse as expected. He can play 1B, OF and DH.  Mancini's fielding is not as good as Gallo's but he would be an extremely low cost, RH hitter. Mancini, a survivor of colon cancer, was one of the first to reach out to Liam Hendricks, when Hendricks was diagnosed with cancer. A classy move.  
  8. Disagree
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to arby58 for a blog entry, Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    As a kid, I remember looking at batting average as the key to the value of a player. OK, not every player, as I was a Harmon Killebrew fan, and he never really hit for average. That should have alerted me to the fact that not all base hits are created equal - and those that sail over the fences are far more valuable than a single to center field.
    There are a lot of people who complain about trading away last year's AL batting champion, Louis Arreaz. That said, while he hits for a very high average, just how impactful is he? I would argue not that impactful.
    Let's compare two players so far this year - and they are night and day difference makers. Introducing Joey Gallo. 
    Gallo is an all or nothing player offensively. He strikes out a lot, but when he gets hit, he hits the ball hard. Many of those get out of the ballpark or at least produce extra base hits.
    Arraez is the oppposite - he doesn't really hit the ball hard, but he gets a lot of base hits. Through tonight, his batting average is a gaudy .379. By contrast, Gallo is at .209.
    So who is more effective? I would argue it is about a wash, and, given the many more at bats for Arraez, Gallo is more impactful
    In 132 at bats, Arraez has scored just 14 runs. That is largely because it takes a lot to score a run when you just hit a single or walk, and that is what Arraez mostly does. With 132 at bats, Arraez' 50 hits are mostly singles (7 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run), so his OPS is.905. That's pretty good, but remember the runs scored thing.
    In just 86 at bats, Gallo has scored 16 runs, and has a similar .903 OPS. The difference is he drives the ball - he has 18 hits, and nearly all are extra base hits (5 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 home runs). So Gallo is hitting .209, and Arraez is hitting .379 - but the impact factors in baseball suggest Gallo has been more valuable offensively.
  9. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Brandon Peddycoart for a blog entry, St. Paul Debut for Keuchel, Cole Sands Rehab, 10-6 Saints Victory   
    Saint Paul, Minnesota - Dallas Keuchel made his second appearance with the Saints on Saturday night and first appearance at CHS Field. The 35-year-old worked 4.1 innings allowing zero runs on three hits in a 10-6 Saints victory over the Gwinnett Stripers at CHS Field in front of 8,715. The Saints maintained a perfect 4-0 record in the second half of the season and improved to 47-31 on the season. 
    Keuchel was not the only pitcher who performed well for the Saints Saturday evening. Keuchel lowered his ERA to 1.08 with the Saints over two appearances. Michael Boyle came into relief Keuchel in the fifth. Boyle worked 0.2 innings allowing no runs on no hits. He is credited with the win. Also, Cole Sands appeared in an MLB Rehab Assignment. His rehab assignment is from a right shoulder injury. Sands worked 2.0 innings allowing one hit while striking out five. He threw thirty-seven pitches of which twenty-two were strikes (60%). 
    There would be no score until the fourth. Trevor Larnach singled on a soft ground ball to the pitcher Jared Shuster. Larnach flies down the baseline to beat it out. Jair Camargo doubled to rightfield. Finally, Chris Williams hit a sacrifice fly to centerfielder, Eli White. Larnach came into score and Camargo tried to go from second to third, but Camargo was caught. First baseman Joshua Fuentes cut off the throw White had intended to go to the plate and Fuentes threw the ball to Daniel Robertson at third to get Camargo. 
    The Saints would have a big inning in the fifth. Anthony Prato hit his third homerun for the Saints. This ball went to right-centerfield. Elliot Soto would hit a homerun to centerfield. This was Sotos' first homerun of the season. Prato and Soto went back-to-back. This would give the Saints a 3-0 lead. Later in the inning with two outs, Kyle Garlick and Larnach singled. Next, Camargo hit a ground-rule-double down the leftfield line. Garlick scored and if it would not have been a ground-rule double Larnach would have scored, but due to the ruling Larnach was forced back to third. In the end it would not matter. Chris Williams doubled, which allowed Larnach and Camargo to score and the Saints took a 6-0 lead. 
    The Saints would add on in the sixth. Prato walked and Soto singled. Both runners advanced on a passed ball. Gilberto Celestino singled, which brought home Prato. Garlick singled allowing Soto to score. Larnach hit a 2 RBI double, Celestino and Garlick scored, and the Saints have a 10-0 lead. 
    In the seventh, Vaughn Grissom flies out to deep centerfield and Celestino made a running catch colliding with the centerfield wall. The catch saved multiple runs and ended the inning. 
    Robertson walked in the eighth. Chadwick Tromp singled. This time it was the Stripers that would hit back-to-back homeruns. Joe Dunand hit his twelfth homerun of the season and right after that Yolmer Sanchez would hit a homerun to right-centerfield. St. Paul still leads 10-4. 
    The Saints would run into a little more trouble in the ninth. Grissom is hit-by-the-pitch and Jesus Aguilar walked. Next, Robertson singled, which brought home Grissom. Later in the inning Sanchez grounded into a force out. Sanchez would pick up an RBI as Aguilar scored. St. Paul would close the game and secure a 10-6 victory. 
    Eight of nine batters for the Saints collected a hit on Saturday evening. Prato went 2-for-3 and Garlick and Larnach both went 3-for-5. Overall, the Saints went 5-for-12 with runners in scoring position and left seven on base. The Saints collected sixteen hits. 
    Jared Shuster started for the Stripers on Saturday. He is the number four prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization. He worked 4.2 innings allowing six runs on ten hits. 
    The Gwinnett Stripers and St. Paul Saints will meet in game five of a six-game series at CHS Field on Sunday afternoon at 2:07 p.m. Gwinnett will send RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (0-1, 3.00) to the mound while St. Paul will counter with RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 7.47). The game can be seen on the Saints Broadcast Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM. 
     
  10. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Devlin Clark for a blog entry, Whose on your all time Twins team?   
    Its the debate that never ends. Whose on your all time Twins team? We all agree on the consensus top 4 of Carew, Killebrew, Oliva and Puckett. But after that who? Are you taking Guzman over Gagne? Gladden over Mack? Aguilera over Nathan? 
    This is a lot harder than you think because you have a budget, $33 is the budget. You have to create the BEST Twins team with just $33 and *ALL* positions must be represented.
    What strategy are you gonna use? What positions are you gonna pay up for? Are you gonna take Killebrew at 1st over Morneau and Hrbek? Are you gonna go with the top 4 mentioned above and use $20 of your $33 there? 
    Let's have some fun and see some unique lists. Remember, the entire objective is to create the best Twins team you can, using just $33 dollars. 
  11. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to jishfish for a blog entry, Twins/Pirates Draft Trade - Chaos   
    I want to begin by emphasizing the point that there is less than a 0.01% chance of this ever happening, but reading Kiley McDaniel's mock draft the other day and his mention of "chaotic vibe" got me thinking about a scenario that would qualify as "Willi Castro-level chaos".
    I want to be clear that this is not something I personally would want to see the Twins do. I think the clear and obvious choice should be to draft and develop whatever top 5 talent drops to them. But if that's not something they are interested in doing, I think this is a unique way to capitalize on that picks value.
    Let's layout some assumptions for this scenario.
    Assumptions:
    There is a consensus Top 5 in this year's draft, all of whom are of a talent level that would be in consideration at #1 overall most years.  The Twins may not be interested in all 5 of those players: They are most interested in Crews/Langford, but in talking with teams/agents leading up to the draft, neither of them is going to make it to #5.  Their draft models value hitters over pitchers, and they wouldn't be willing to take Paul Skenes at #5. The are looking for more immediate impact than a HS draftee could provide, and they wouldn't be willing to take Max Clark or Walker Jenkins at #5. The draft plays out the same exact way as Kiley's mock draft (Clark--> Crews--> Langford--> Jenkins--> Skenes) The Twins Front Office is starting to feel the heat and have decided 'Screw building for the future, we've lost 18 straight playoff games, no more', and are willing to go to some unconventional measures to improve this team at the trade deadline. All players mentioned from here on out will continue to perform at their current All-Star caliber level and remain healthy. Based on the above, what if the Twins approached the Pirates on Draft Weekend and gave them the option to walk away with two of the top five talents in this class?
    The Trade: Mitch Keller + David Bednar for Twins #5 Overall Pick
    Now I know what you're thinking. I can hear you screaming at your computer right now. "You idiot! You can't trade draft picks!". Yup, I know and am aware of that, I promise. You can trade PTBNL however, which is our little loophole to bring this back to reality. Obviously the Twins can't just send the #5 pick and associated bonus pool money to the Pirates. But taking a page out of the 2014 Padres book, they could make a deal with whomever the draft at #5 overall on a list of possible Players To Be Named Later, which would send that prospect over to the Pirates immediately after the World Series.
    Why would the Pirates consider doing this?
    The Pirates have been a nice story to start the year, but I don't think they (or anyone else) really believe they're close to contending. They're in this for the long run, and getting two top 5 talents in a generational draft would be a great way to do that. If this were agreed upon pre-draft, it opens up some really interesting possibilities for them to get creative. Assuming the word leading up to the draft is that neither of the College OF will be available at 5, that leaves Skenes/Jenkins/Clark as the three options. None of whom the Twins want long-term, but all of whom hold immense trade value. The Pirates lean into Kiley's "chaos scenario" and take Max Clark #1 overall because he will take the biggest discount, thereby allowing them to float a first round talent down to their second round pick. Assuming the draft plays out as assumed above, that would leave the Pirates walking away with Clark + Skenes + [Insert additional first round talent]. Why would the Twins consider doing this?
    Assuming the two College OF's they really want will not be available at #5, this gives the Twins a chance to capitalize on the trade value of one of the talents they aren't as interested in. The assumption here is that both Keller and Bednar will remain healthy and continue pitching at the level they have been. That means a sub-3.00 era, top of the rotation level for Keller, and A low-2's era, shutdown level closer for Bedner. Keller comes with 2.5 years of team control along with 3.5 years of control for Bednar, so you're essentially trading for the same amount of team control as you would get with the #5 pick. The Twins would go into the post-season with a top-3 rotation (Gray/Ryan/Lopez/Keller), plus a lights out bullpen duo in Bednar/Duran. I know the pitching hasn't exactly been the problem this year like it has in years past, but perhaps they choose to just lean into it being a strength and assume some of the bats will turn things around to be at least a league average offense. While the perception of this trade would be "The Twins traded Paul Skenes for Keller/Bednar", the reality would be that they chose Keller/Bednar > Jacob Gonzalez/[Insert second tier college hitter]. Again, the assumption is (right or wrong) the Twins would not be willing to use their pick on Skenes/Clark/Jenkins, instead preferring a college bat.  
    Is this something I would want the Twins to do or be excited about the Twins doing? No. I think they were gifted a Top 5 pick in a draft with 5 top tier players, and to waste that by taking someone besides one of those players would be stupid and a fire-able offense. But if some of what has been leaking out is based in reality, I would rather see them utilize that pick value like this, rather than squandering it on a Jacob Gonzalez or Jacob Wilson-level player.
    Would love to hear peoples thoughts and reactions if you have any! All I ask is that you consider the assumptions/scenario I laid out. This is all hypothetical and has absolutely 0% chance of ever happening, but I thought it was a unique idea and wanted to take some time to write it all out to see what it would look like.
  12. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to rwilfong86 for a blog entry, My Jorge Lopez story   
    I've mentioned my Jorge Lopez connection in several threads on this website and figured I would write it out if anyone is interested in reading it. I met the girl who became my wife in 2015, she is from Puerto Rico, lived in Chicago as a young adult and was a White Sox fan. She moved to the lovely state of Kansas in the summer of 2016 and one of our mutual interests was watching baseball. I spent a few months learning as much as I could about the history of Puerto Rican baseball and I gradually converted her to being a Twins fan, we both really liked Jose Berríos and started following his career during the summer of 2016 and started collecting his baseball cards. We were both excited to see the Cubs end their run of futility that season and as a former resident of Chicago she was able to see both of the Chicago teams win a World Series in her lifetime.
    The following spring we were watching the World Baseball Classic, Puerto Rico was playing Mexico, I remember turning the game on and not really paying attention and she says to me, "The pitcher is Jorge Lopez, I went to school with him." My response was confusion, how did I not know about him before? She told me that they were childhood classmates in their hometown of Cayey, PR and he always liked playing baseball and volleyball and handball and ended up going to the military academy in Caguas and she lost touch with him after high school. We started following his career after that where he toiled in the Brewers organization through the summer of 2018 when he was traded to the Royals in the Mike Moustakas trade but quickly gained attention from baseball fans when he carried a perfect game into the 9th inning against our beloved Twins.
    A couple months after that we were sitting in church when she gets a notification on her phone, Jorge had sent her a friend request on Facebook. That was when we found out more about him after they had lost touch and the challenges that his son had been experiencing. His son Mikael was born with a condition called "Familial Mediterranean Fever" which affects his digestive system; because of this Mikael wears a backpack that supplies nutrients to his body (eventually he will need an intestinal transplant). He quickly became one of our favorite players to cheer for, we were looking forward to getting to see him pitch for the Royals but in September of 2020 due to his ineffectiveness as a starter the Royals DFA's him and we were sad. Baltimore quickly picked him up and he struggled during the 2020 and 2021 seasons where they eventually moved him to the bullpen. Before the 2022 season we connected with him again on Instagram and we started keeping in touch with him there, we learned his son was doing better and hoped that with his bullpen role being more defined he would finally put it together. And he did! He made his first All Star game appearance and I remember staying up way past my bedtime to watch him come into the game to face one batter, Jake Cronenworth, and got him to ground out on 3 pitches. It was such a grand moment. His name came up in trade talks, a number of teams seemed to be interested, I hoped the Twins would make a move but I wasn't hopeful. I had just finished voting in a local election on August 2nd, and came home and turned the TV on when I saw the Twins had traded for Jorge Lopez! We were so excited that he was gonna be on our favorite team! He wasn't as sharp after the trade but we hoped after a full offseason with the team and the chemistry with the other Puerto Rican players and the stability of his sons situation he would be the Jorge Lopez he was before the trade and so far this season he has been much better, currently with a 1.71 ERA in 22 games. We still interact with him on Instagram and keep in touch as often as we can.
    I think the biggest thing I've learned from Jorge Lopez is that we all are fighting battles the world may never know about. When he comes into pitch, you will always see that huge smile on his face, deep down he is just a Puerto Rican kid who loves playing baseball. Whether he continues to do well or struggles, he is a man who is easy to cheer for and I hope more Twins fans will show him some love and compassion 😊
    Thanks for reading!
  13. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to stringer bell for a blog entry, Is Alex Kirilloff the Key to Unlocking the Offense?   
    The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
    The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
    It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
    What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
    I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 
  14. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Cory Moen for a blog entry, A Look at Depth: Catchers   
    I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system, or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2023, or who may make an impact within a few years. I was inspired by Nick Nelson’s posts regarding the major league team, but didn’t want to duplicate what he did, so I will only be writing about the guys not on the 40-man roster, because Nick has done a great job analyzing the position at the major league level.
    I will start with catchers, where there are more in the system than one probably thinks at the start. I used Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found on FanGraphs. Here is a note on each catcher in the Twins system not on the 40 man roster. I’ll list how they were acquired and what level I expect them to play at most this coming season.
    Tony Wolters Acquired: Free Agency, 2023
    Level: AAA
     
    The Twins signed Wolters in January to have some depth within the minors if Christian Vazquez or Ryan Jeffers were to get injured. Wolters has bounced around to a few different teams in the past few years, but you likely remember him most as a member of the Colorado Rockies. He is a light hitting, backup, catcher at this point in his career, with a career .235/.321/.314 line in his time in the majors. He’s not a bad depth option because he has some major league experience, but the hope is he doesn’t have to get into too many games this season.
    Chance Sisco Acquired: Free Agency, 2022
    Level: AAA
     
    Sisco was in the Twins system this past year as a well as a depth option and even with Ryan Jeffers injury, he was not called up to the ML squad. Once a highly regard prospect after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, Sisco never hit much in the majors, which leads to a noticeably clear ceiling. At this point, similar to Wolters, he is a depth option with some major league experience. His career line of .197/.317/337 is not fantastic, but it is nice to have a guy who can fill in a backup roll if needed. I’m not sure on where he compares to some of the other AAA catchers, but it’s never a bad thing to have multiple guys who have some major league experience if an injury does occur.
    Grayson Greiner Acquired: Free Agency, 2023
    Level: AAA
     
    You may know Greiner most from his time with the Detroit Tigers, where he played from 2018-2021. He spent the 2022 season with Arizona, where he spent most of his time at AAA but made it into two major league games. Greiner, like Sisco and Wolters, is a depth option at the catcher position. He will likely play most, if not all, of the year at AAA where he will serve as a depth option in case of injury. His ML career slash of .201/.275/.307 is not far off from Wolters or Sisco and profiles as a depth piece where if you see him in the majors for too long, something went very wrong with injuries most likely.
    David Bañuelos Acquired: Trade, 2017
    Level: AAA
     
    You may or may not remember, Bañuelos was acquired in December 2017 in a trade with the Seattle Mariners where the Twins sent international bonus pool money to Seattle in exchange for Bañuelos. Bañuelos has slowly climbed the minor league ranks since, finishing at AAA over the last two years. This may sound familiar, but he is a light hitting catcher who is a pretty solid depth piece this year. A career .207/.261/.325 hitter in 5 minor league seasons, Bañuelos has been tried at other positions, but not often, which says to me he is a catcher who can maybe play elsewhere in an emergency. Listed as the 4th possible catcher, at AAA, I would assume one of these guys may get a handful of at bats at 1B as well, but it may not be Bañuelos, since he hasn’t played there since 2017. At this point, he is a depth piece who will likely not see the majors unless something goes horribly wrong with the guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
     
    Alex Isola Acquire: Draft – 29th Round, 2019
    Level: AA
     
    You may be thinking, finally, someone the Twins drafted. Don’t worry, there are a handful of others on this list as well. Isola was a late round pick, who has steadily climbed the minors ladder since being drafted in 2019. He made it up to Wichita, the Twins AA affiliate, this past season, where I would expect him to spend a chunk of the time this coming season as well. Isola is a career .264/.356/449 hitter in the minor leagues, which means his bat is a bit more of a weapon compared to others we have looked at to this point. Isola is relatively versatile as well, having played some 1B over the past two seasons as well. He also represented the Twins in the Arizona Fall League in 2022, where he mostly played 1B and he hit .228/.343/.316 in 16 games. Isola is 24 years old, so he likely projects as a career backup who can provide a little offense as well. I’m interested to see if he can carve a role in future years, but I don’t see 2023 being a year where that occurs, unless he takes a huge step forward combined with injuries occurring at the same time.
    Kyle Schmidt Acquired: Draft – 33rd Round, 2019
    Level: AA
     
    Drafted out of the University of Richmond in 2019, where Schmidt tore the cover off the ball in his final season, he has slowly climbed the ranks, at an oddly similar pace to Isola. Schmidt’s minors career slash of .211/.296/.290 isn’t quite as potent, but he seems to still be developing potentially at the dish. Schmidt played at Fort Myers, Cedar Rapids, and also at Wichita, where he mostly played catcher, but also got into some games at 1B as well. If Schmidt can hit for more power, even becoming a guy who gets more extra base hits, he could potentially carve out a role as a backup catcher in the future.
    Pat Winkel Acquired: Draft – 9th round, 2021
    Level: A+/AA
     
    Winkel has about a year and a half of minors games under his belt, so he still has a ways to go to get to the majors. He played at high-A Cedar Rapids this past year, where he hit decently well, and showed a little bit of power, hitting 6 HRs in 54 games played. As I mentioned, Winkel has a limited amount of minors experience, so plenty of time to still grow going forward, as he is only 23 years old. His career slash of .251/.341/.382 is something to build off, especially at the catcher position.
    Noah Cardenas Acquired: Draft – 8th round, 2021
    Level: A+
     
    In the past two season, in just over 100 games, Cardenas has hit .264/.420/.418, which is really fun because that shows he’s hit for a little bit of power, while also hitting for a decent average as well. I know, it’s the low minors, so you can take it with a grain of salt. Cardenas might be a potential piece long term, but will have to continue to perform if he wants to make an impact at the major league level going forward. He’s known for his glove first, and that’s an okay place to be as a catcher, but if he can tap into a little more offensive firepower, he could be a fun piece to watch climb his way into the picture in the next handful of years.
    Charles Mack Acquired: Draft – 6th round, 2018
    Level: A+
     
    Mack will be playing his age 23 season this coming year, but it will be his 5th year in the Twins system. Drafted in 2018, Mack has a career slash of .212/.315/346 in the minors. He played a little 1B this past season, so some versatility is always promising. He threw out 20% of potential base stealers, so he will need to improve in that area if wanting to be a long term option at catcher.
    Dillon Tatum Acquired: Draft – 20th Round, 2021
    Level: A+
     
    Tatum was drafted in the 20th round out of UC Irvine after hitting .278 with 15 HR in his final year there. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .172/.320/.291, so the bat has not translated as some may have hoped, but it still has time to develop as he is 22 years old. Tatum also played a handful of games at 1B this past year, but his bat will have to improve to truly be a viable option at 1B. He had a 25% caught stealing rate, so not great, but he did only commit 2 errors in 437 chances at Fort Myers as well. He’s a glove first catcher, with some upside with the bat. Keep your eye on how his bat develops this year.
    Nate Baez Acquired: Draft – 12th round, 2022
    Level: A
     
    Baez is the one of the newer members of this list to the organization. He has played in a total of 19 minor league games but hit decently well at Fort Myers when called up. He hit 3 HR in 58 PA, so hopefully the power can still continue to develop. In his last season at Arizona State, he hit .319/.403/.562 with 10 HR and 48 RBI. If the bat can continue to develop, he could be a very interesting piece. Baez also played 1B, 2B, 3B and even a handful of games in LF as well in college, so there could be some versatility. I would say the versatility is something to keep an eye on, ad he is someone who could end up at 1B if catching doesn’t work out.
    Ricardo Olivar Acquired: Amateur FA – 2019
    Level: A
     
    Olivar was signed as an amateur free agent in July 2019 for $20,000. He struggled in 2021, but figured something out in 2022 as he led the Florida Complex League with a 1.047 OPS over 40 games. Olivar has also played all 3 OF positions and 2B, which makes him a very intriguing prospect. Does he stick at catcher, or does he transition to another position that gets his bat into the lineup a bit more? Time will tell, but as a catcher, he has a decent fielding percentage, but has not thrown out would be base stealers very well at all. He finished the year at Fort Myers in 2022 so I would suspect he spends the entire 2023 season there as well. He is only 21 years old as well, so he could be a sneaky break-out candidate as someone not many people are talking about right now.
    Wilfri Castro Acquired: Amateur FA – 2017
    Level: Rookie
     
    Castro was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and has been in rookie ball since 2018. His minors career line of .204/.338/.305 doesn’t scream a bright future, but sometimes you don’t know with low-level prospects. With having been in the system for a few years, this may be the year that he finally puts something together, as he has only 86 professional games under his belt at this point. For his sake, the hope would be he can at least finish the year in Fort Myers after hitting some at rookie ball.
    Ricardo Pena Acquired: Amateur FA – 2022
    Level: Dominican Summer League
     
    Pena got into 29 games after being signed in April of last year. He hit a little bit, but 29 games is a small sample size to judge a 17, soon to be 18, year old. Lots of time for development for a young prospect, and one I will keep an eye on to see how he is doing over the next few years to see if he is able to develop into a possible top-30 prospect for the Twins.  He will likely spend his time in the Dominican Summer League this coming year and hopefully build off of the development he had this past season.  
    Carlos Silva Acquired: Amateur FA – 2023
    Level: Dominican Summer League
     
    The Twins signed Silva, the number 31 ranked international prospect for $1.1 million in January of this year. Jesse Sanchez, of MLB.com stated about Silva: “As for Silva, the right-handed hitter from Venezuela has a compact frame that suits him well behind the plate. He also has the skills to keep him there as he advances through the Minor Leagues. Silva impressed scouts with his pop times and arm strength, which has a chance to be an above-average tool in the future. He shows good footwork along with solid receiving and blocking skills. At the plate, Silva shows plus bat speed and the ability to drive the ball to all fields, especially his pull side. He trains out of the NBS Academy in Venezuela.”
    This tells me that Silva is a guy to keep your eye on, but he likely won’t be major league ready for quite some time, as he is only 17 years old and will take quite some time to develop. He’s a prospect to be excited about, but not for probably 5-6 years realistically.
     
    Let me know which catchers not on the 40-man roster you are most excited for, or maybe which you aren’t as excited about. I plan on releasing one of these for each position over the next handful of weeks. Let me know your thoughts!
     
     
     
  15. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Cory Moen for a blog entry, Why Donovan Solano is a Better Fit than you Might Think.   
    As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. 
    So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. 
    Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. 
    Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. 
    As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: 
    Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. 
    The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. 
    Walk %: 
    Voit: 10.2%
    Gurriel: 5.7%
    Solano: 5.7%
    K %: 
    Voit: 28.5%
    Gurriel: 11.2%
    Solano: 18.0%
    Projected WAR (using ZiPS): 
    Voit: 0.8 WAR
    Gurriel: 1.5 WAR
    Solano: 1.2 WAR
    Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility. 
    Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. 
    Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP.
    One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. 
    I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. 
    Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?). 
  16. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Bailey Ober needs to be a Primary Starter!!   
    The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely.  Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season.  Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation.  With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters".  and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters.  
    We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in.  Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez  are locks.
    Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle  is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer.  So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5?
    I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
    But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA  just under a 4:1  K:BB rate,  a 9.85K/9  and a 1.14 WHIP.  Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation.
    That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP..
    If we go by the numbers,  it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and  both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?"
    "Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options.  But should he???
    I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack.  Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone.
    With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark.
    Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation.
    The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.
  17. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to IndianaTwin for a blog entry, One Guy's Take on the Roster Makeup   
    The end is in sight. While I'll have one eye on Caitlin Clark and her Iowa Hawkeye team's amazingness the next six weeks (hopefully), it's great to see Spring Training starting this week. Much speculation has been made about the roster, so I'll add my read on how I see things shaking out. Here goes: 
    Offensively, I see the Opening Day roster as:
    Group A: C - Jeffers, Vazquez Group B: 2B/SS/3B - Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Farmer, Gordon Group C: 1B/LF/RF/DH - Kirilloff, Gallo, Kepler, Larnach Group D: CF - Buxton, Taylor They'll move around, of course, but this provides a framework. The other three position players on the 40-man roster and healthy are Julien, Wallner and Celestino. If one of the guys in Group B gets hurt, the door opens for Julien. If a Group C player gets hurt, the door opens for Wallner. If a Group D player gets hurt, it could be Celestino, but with Gordon's (and even Gallo's) ability to play CF, it could mean either Wallner or Julien, so that Celestino stays in St. Paul.
    If a catcher gets hurt, they have to make a corresponding 40-man move, but they have Wolters, Sisco and Greiner in St. Paul and Paddack and Canterino (and maybe Lewis) as possibilities to go on the 60-Day IL. And hey, it's a catcher. If they get hurt, it could well be the 60-day for him anyway!
    I didn't mention Lewis, but momma always said, "We'll cross that bridge when we get to it." When Lewis is healthy, something will have happened to provide a spot for him. And if not, awesome! As for other prospects not on the 40-man, they'll take a number and get worked in as spots become available. And spots will become available. Injuries happen. So does suckitude. 
    On the pitching side, the starting pool looks like:
    Group 1; Ryan, Gray, PLopez, Mahle and Maeda as the intended starting five. Group 2: Ober, Varland, Winder and Woods Richardson are all on the 40-man and have made starts in the majors, so any are options to step into the rotation when one from Group 1 goes on the IL. Otherwise, it's assumed they'll start in St. Paul. They're listed in the order of when they made appearances, so that may be a clue as to the order. Group 3: Paddack can go on the 60-man as needed, but it's assumed that he'll get starts at some point.  Group 4: Dobnak, Rodriguez and Sanchez are also in St. Paul, but not on the 40-man. I think they'll churn through Group 2 before going here, but they are available if needed. By the time it gets to these guys, at least one of the injuries will likely have been of the 60-day variety, creating another spot on the 40-man. Group 5: Balazovic and Headrick are two guys on the 40-man that I'm guessing they aren't ready to move them to the pen yet. With great starts, they could theoretically move to the back of Group 2. The bullpen looks like: 
    Group 6: Duran, JLopez, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar, Moran, Megill, Pagan as the assumed bullpen. Alcala, Moran and Megill have options. Group 7: Sands and Henriquez. Sands only pitched in relief in August and September, but it was usually multiple innings. That could be a sign of moving him to the pen full time. Henriquez bounced back and forth between starting and relieving, and I wonder if he might move to relieving full time as well. They could join Alcala, Moran and Megill on the St. Paul shuffle. Conceivably, either of these could bump one of the guys in Group 5, particularly given that they are viable multi-inning guys. Group 8: Coulombe, DeLeon, Ortega are three guys not on the 40-man, but who have major league experience. Once Canterino goes on the 60-day IL, any of these could be added to the 40-man in his spot. With that in mind, several observations: 
    I really like the flexibility they have created on the position player side. I also don't trade Kepler, unless it's for a right-handed hitting 1B or OF, but that's just tinkering. If it was going to happen, it would have happened earlier. Groups 1-3 make 10 starting pitchers that I can feel good about as options. And Group 4 is a nice group to have in St. Paul, hopefully beating down the door with good performances, and otherwise providing enough starts to keep the prospect pipeline flowing. I've been one of the group wishing they would have signed a Fulmer-type for the bullpen. As I play this out, I'm not that sure it's a big deal. He'd add another player to Group 6, but it feels like they have enough options to not worry about that.  Pagan deserves his own observation. Folks want him gone. I see one of two things happening. Best case scenario is that he pitches like he did the last couple months and earns his keep. But I think he'll be on a relatively short leash. Consider last year -- when Duffey and Smith stunk and they had other bodies available, they cut bait and DFAed both. What was different about Pagan was that he had another year of control, so there was hope of a turnaround. Now that he's in the last year of control, I think his leash will be much shorter. I think this is a playoff contender. From what I gather, this group is WAY deeper across the board than Cleveland or Chicago. Ace/Schmace. I hate the articles debating what classifies as an "ace" and how an "ace" is needed in the playoffs, but here's the way I view it: Are any Twins starters Hall of Famers? No. Are any of them Sure-Fire Top 10 (or 15) MLB Starters, or however you want to define this "Ace" term? Probably not. BUT, and I've got a big but(t), I think that any of the guys in Group 1 or Group 3 can pitch like an "Ace" on any given night and even for an extended run. Consider Maeda's 2020, for example. And if the Twins have made it into the playoffs, it's likely because at least one has been pitching like an "Ace," so I'll take my chances. I'm sure we're biased and have rose-colored glasses on Ober, Winder, et. al, but if you look at the depth charts of other teams, there's very few that have the kind of depth we, both in the top five and particularly in the top 10. Goodness -- we just waived A.J. Alexy and he shows up as the No. 7 starter on one list for The Team That Shall Not Be Named.   What did I miss? 
    Besides noting that we're at T-minus 44 days and counting to Opening Day. 
  18. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Brandon for a blog entry, Creative Ways Falvey and Levine acquire prospects:   
    The Dynamic Duo have brought a creativity towards acquiring prospects that even Terry Ryan who was the master of acquiring prospects never thought of.
    The first example is one of my favorites.  With Ohtani on the market and notifying the Twins they would not be one of the finalists for his services Falvine went and traded their extra international spending cap space for 2 prospects.  They traded 1 million in cap space to the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles for Pearson a 2nd round draft pick and OF.  The Twins also traded 1 million in cap space to the Mariners of Seattle for David Banuelos a 5th round draft pick and C.  Banuelos is still with the Twins and in AAA.  I hope to see him get in some games with the Twins just to make these trades a success, But we got essentially 2 high draft picks for nothing.
    Another example was in the draft when the Twins followed suit from the Astros example and saved money on Royce Lewis to be able to sign another draft pick in the third round who had first round talent.  Today Enlow is one of our top 30 prospects in the system and being creative is how we landed him.  Granted he lost some luster as a prospect because of the lost 2020 season then Tommy John surgery in 2021, but 2023 should be the year he bounces back from that completely so hopefully we have another mid rotation starter being developed here. 
    The trade deadline sell off.  Lets face it we were all mad when the Twins threw In the towel and traded several fan favorite players at the time for prospects.  The 2 big names were RP Presley and IF Escobar.  We netted Alcala, Duran, and Celestino from those trades, however.  The trade of Berrios was unpopular as well and we received Martin and SWR.  2 of our top 15 prospects.  For Cruz we got Ryan and Strotman who was a top 30 prospect before regressing. 
    As much as I didn’t like the sell offs I did like this next technique.  Making a trade and a little bit more…. When the Twins traded Lewin Diaz to Florida, they got Romo and a little bit more in prospect Valimont (who was a top 30 prospect before regressing).  He is no longer with the Twins but this is not the only example.  When the Twins traded Garver to the Rangers for their SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa the Twins got a little bit more with Henriquez who is a top 30 prospect.  With the trade for Lopez the Twins got a lot (little bit more) with Jose Salas a top 15 prospect and Byron Chorio which is essentially an extra international signing. 
    I actually forgot this and am now adding but they also got Severino when the Braves were penalized for their international signing practices and the Twins were able to swoop in and sign Severino away from the Braves for 2.5 million.  This added another in and out top 30 Twins prospect.  As Seth Stohs points out he should be in AA next season and 1 year younger then the average player at that level.  He also had a high OPS last year.  
    The one creative way that is missing is the Rule 5 draft.  A favorite of the last regime, but not used by this one.   I am also leaving out the waver wire because most of our acquisitions have not been prospects per se.  Also I don't remember the full details on acquiring Cave from the Yankees I think we gave up Gil who is a great prospect for the Yankees and I don't remember what we gave up for Littell either.  If i remember correctly he was also a pickup from a playoff sell off with the pitcher we had for a week going to New York.  we trade Hnoa to the Braves for that pitcher so essentially a three team trade of Hnoa for Littell and a start by the other pitcher.  
    Overall from their creativity we have a #3 starter in Ryan, 2 RPs in Duran and Alcala, a back up OF in Celestino, and 5 of our current top 30 prospects ( Enlow, Salas, SWR, Martin, and Henriquez) and 1 just outside the top 30 in Severino.
  19. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Matt Braun for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  20. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Alex Boxwell for a blog entry, They’ll Love You When You're Dead   
    A major pitfall of human beings is eulogizing people once they are gone. The nicest comments you’ll ever hear about another person is when they are, sadly, no longer with us. Isn’t that depressing? We can’t appreciate people while they are here or to quote The Office “I wish there was a way to know you were in the good old days before you actually left them”. As Twins fans we bring this unfortunate reflex to our fanhood aggressively and without question. Some examples Joe Mauer, our current Front Office, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa… we’ve done it to them all. 
    The fanbase’s criticism of the front office is natural. We were supposed to be good last year, blew it, and now we’ve done little to rectify the depth issues. However, I’d like to open the hood on the front offices moves a bit more. Remember where we’ve come from Twins fans, and we will love this front office when they are gone…
    Rather than acquiring contracts like Ricky Nolasco or Nathan Eovaldi, this front office has turned towards the trade market rather than bending the knee to an overpriced pitching market. They have acquired Kenta Maeda who when we last saw in a full season, granted it was 2020, was receiving Cy Young votes in a Twins uniform. We traded away Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan and rather than pay Berrios we shipped him off for (at the time) a fantastic haul. Berrios is on the verge of losing a spot in that Blue Jays rotation don’t forget. All these arms, Chris Paddock included, would have cost 15-20 Million annually on the open market. That’s just the fact of the free agent pitching climate. 
    I understand that the dollar signs point to a lack of effort but don’t lose sight of where we have come from. The arms we have brought in are good and have saved the organization hundreds of millions of dollars rather than getting equivalent arms in free agency. This year is no different. We are clearly close to being legit contenders and we want to lose sight of the process and chase the finish line by blowing money on pitchers that make no sense. Stay the course, something is coming, we’ve made creative moves every off-season and I don’t see why this year will be any different.
    Don’t forget where we have come from, appreciate what we have, be hopeful for the future. If you don’t like it, we can go back to getting guys like Adam Everette at shortstop, trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps and getting guys like Mike Pelfrey to hold down the rotation. None of them are bad players but we saw how moves like that didn’t move the needle or were way too short-sighted. We will miss them when they are gone.
    The pinnacle of we will love you when you’re gone is Joe Mauer. Besides with Kirk Cousins this year, I’ve never seen the average fan swing so wildly with their opinion on a player. I get it was an emotional deal seeing Mauer regress, he was and is still OUR guy. Minnesota born and raised, three batting titles, MVP, Gold Glove catcher, he was OUR guy. Battered with injury he came out from behind the dish and Joe Mauer was the target of everyone’s frustration because his body couldn’t do what it used to. He was still a productive player, and the contract was not bad enough to keep the old regime from trying to acquire and lock up talent. We as a fan base hated him for it anyways.
    Almost as if we lifted a curse, as Mauer strapped on the gear one last time in his last game it was like the angst of the Minnesota Twins fan evaporated into thin air. An outpouring of love and pounding the table for first ballot hall of fame induction. It is some of the strangest behavior I have ever seen. Even when he was wining batting titles, it was- “he should hit more home runs". “he doesn’t catch enough”, “he never swings at the first pitch”. Now that we’ll never see him play again, we all have taken a running leap back onto the band wagon and for no reason other than we will love you when you’re gone...
    I do not think the front office or any of the players are perfect as players, executives, or people. I just firmly believe they can do better and will do better. We can also do better as fans and people. Take a step back and appreciate what you have in front of you as much as you can. Whether it’s Buxton patrolling centerfield, the front office making a trade for a controllable starting pitcher, or if it’s someone or something in your everyday life. Love people while they are here, not when they are gone. What makes us great as a community is we get to choose.
     Go Twins, love you all.
  21. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Alex Boxwell for a blog entry, Joey Gallo- your dads least favorite player   
    To say Joey Gallo was bad last year would be like saying a turd isn't particularly tasty... it hardly describes the full truth. He hit .160 with 19 homers and a .638 OPS. Not to mention the 163 punch-outs in 410 plate appearances, that's just shy of a 40% strike-out rate. Absurd. His defense took a step back as well last year but inconsistent playing time can do that to an outfielder in terms of in-game jumps. On the surface, this sign makes little to no sense with the roster in its current state and if you don't believe in Joey Gallo as a player, the fact that he could improve, and if deployed properly that he is a productive player. HOWEVER, I would now like to present to you the Max Kepler situation
    I love Max Kepler, as a young player I thought he was a candidate to grow into a player to hit .275-.300, threaten 30 jacks a year and play very good defense. You can't use a scouting report from 2014 to evaluate your talent, you can't think emotionally as a front office. You have to call a spade a spade. Max Kepler has had a combined OPS of .692 over the last two seasons (936 plate appearances) that's below the league average even for last year in a historically terrible year for offense (in '21 league average was .728). OPS is the easiest way to see how good a hitter is, if you want one statistic to rule them all... that is it. Kepler does not lift the ball well and that is fine but it has seriously limited his offensive ceiling and disbanding the shift is not going to be the sole reason to raise his batting average, he flat-out has to play better. The bottom line is he is a player that had an outlier season and has yet to improve in 8 seasons. 
    Between Gallo and Kepler if you look at OPS, advantage Gallo. Even with Kepler having a clunker season last year Gallo was not far behind (.638 vs .666). I get Gallo strikes out way more than anyone in the world at the pro level but he could be a great fit. A lineup can only suffer so many Ks before it becomes wildly unproductive and frustrating regardless of OPS or whatever positive statistic they can provide. It's also a one-year deal, if the guy stinks they aren't going to play him there is hardly any risk. The people that say 'Wallner could do what Gallo does', it's a fair point but do you honestly think the scouting department didn't have that conversation? They clearly grade Gallo as a better player at this moment and that's fine. It's one year and Wallner could win the job and Gallo can ride pine all year, we are not married to him in any way shape, or form.
    All this being said, with the addition of Gallo I become very hesitant to trade Arraez. With a guy like Gallo, the protection you need in the lineup for him is a player like Arraez. Strikeouts are bad, I hate seeing a guy punch out with less than two outs and a guy on 3rd more than anyone. I truly believe a lineup has a breaking point for how many strikeouts it can take before it becomes unproductive but I'll let some guy who has never played baseball find that statistic. A lineup can still be elite with Joey Gallo in it but other hitters in the lineup need to have some bat-to-ball skill. 
    It's a long walk for a short drink of water but I lean towards liking the Gallo signing, we will have to use our personnel properly or he needs to improve dramatically. You will need to scheme your lineup around him, having Gallo hit 9th and Arraez hit leadoff would be how you would have to write it. Gallo and Kepler were both terrible last year, both will likely not be Twins in '24. I think the lineup has more potential with Gallo but if you have potential that just means you haven't done s**t yet. Regardless if your rightfielder is Kepler or Gallo they both need to take a considerable step forward from their recent performance. I think everyone is well within their right to be critical of this signing but you can't honestly say this signing isn't steeped in short-term potential. Sadly, more potential than it would've had with my guy Max Kepler.
  22. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Joey Gallo?   
    I am sure at this point WHOEVER the Twins woudl go and sign a good chunk of us will complain.  At least it is a move, but does it really make sense?
    Gallo does not change the trajectory of the Twins, he could be decent, he could be good, but if he doesnt change the trajectory, is there really a reason to sing him? Don't we already have logjam... or at least a good number of options for OF/DH spots?
    Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner,   We have Garlick (expendable) on the roster, we have players at AAA who are close as well.
     
    Since 2015 here are his BA...  .204/.040/.209/.206/.253/.181/.199/.160  CAREER .199!!!!
    He hits less than Miguel Sano, actually strikes out MORE (if you can beleive that) so we pay him $11M.  
    Where does Gallo play? RF is his best position.  but we have Kepler.  He could be DH, but didnt we want to get away from having a primary DH?
    If you say, well that makes Kepler expendable yoru nuts!!!  We are now paying Gallo MORE then Kepler,   Kepler's BAD years are .220, that is a career year for Gallo.  I knwo batting average is not the biggest thing, but making contact and getting on base is!!
    Again, maybe Gallo has another career year at hits 40HR with a .230 avg.  and you want to talk about health???  2019 he played in 70 games, 2020 57, he did get in 153 games in 2021 and then 126 last year.
     
    So, no better than what we have (no better than Sano who we DFA), not a position of need, does not have a consistent history of playing 150 games.  OF COURSE lets go ahead and pay him $11M!!!  
    The banning the shift aint gonna do anything against K's.
    ANY sense that this FO has a clue is out the window... throw a low ball offer at Carlos Correa (relative to current market) and OVERPAY for Gallo.  BRILLIANT!!!
     
    Lets not pay $13M for Noah Syndegaard, lets pay $11M for Joey Gallo.
    Regardless of the results Gallo does this year, he could be MVP and I will stand 100% by the call that this is a HORRIBLE signing and shows incompetence. 
     
    Imagine that He was a draft pick and a prospect with the Rangers while Levine was in Texas just continues to show how myopic this FO is. There was obviously scouting  that had Levine like him to draft him, is he still stuck on those old scouting reports? does he think he can get the "true potential" out of him?
     
    I challenge ANYONE to provide ANY solid, coherent defense that says this signing is anything but horrid.  
     
    Anyways, LET's GO TWINS!!!
  23. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Greggory Masterson for a blog entry, If Luis Arraez were to be traded, my new favorite stat would be in jeopardy   
    Do I think that Luis Arraez is in any great danger to be traded? No. He doesn't have enough value to be the centerpiece in a trade for top end starting pitching.
    I would be sad though. Upon his winning of the AL batting title, I did some research, and found an interesting statistic, which I shared on Reddit at the time with some inaccuracies, and I want to write up here as well as the definitive edition.
    The Twins have had the AL batting champion 15 times since 1964, a whopping 26% of seasons (Carew x7, Oliva x3, Mauer x3, Puckett x1, Arraez x1). In that same timespan, the Twins have had 16 seasons with at least one (1) 30 homerun hitter. They are almost as likely to have a hitter win a batting title as they are to have a single hitter hit 30 home runs. To show my work, here is a list of years with at least one player who hit 30 homeruns:
    2021: Polanco (33), Sano (30)
    2019: Cruz (41), Kepler (36), Sano (34), Rosario (32). Garver (31)
    2017: Dozier (34)
    2016: Dozier (42)
    2012: Willingham (35)
    2009: Cuddyer (32), Morneau (30)
    2007: Morneau (31)
    2006: Morneau (34), Hunter (31)
    1987: Hrbek (34), Brunansky (32), Gaetti (31)
    1986: Gaetti (34), Puckett (31)
    1984: Brunansky (32)
    1970: Killebrew (41)
    1969: Killebrew (49)
    1967: Killebrew (44)
    1966: Killebrew (39)
    1964: Killebrew (49), Oliva (32), Allison (32)
    During a stretch from 1971 to 1983, the Twins had zero hitters hit more than 30 home runs, but had a player win the batting title six times. From 1988 to 2005 there were also no 30 home run seasons, but there was a batting title. There have been more players that won a batting title than have hit 40 or more homeruns in a season (Cruz, Dozier, Killebrew).
    With at least one more season of Luis Arraez and no sure bets to belt 30 longballs in 2023, the record may come to 16-16, which would make any curmudgeonly, old-school, Twins Way, baseball fan like me smile.
    As a side note, in 1981, Roy Smalley led the Twins in homers with 7.
  24. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Hans Birkeland for a blog entry, The Respectability Gap- Was 2022 a Stepping Stone?   
    It’s hard to get excited about the Minnesota Twins. They could easily be an exciting team by next spring but that’s beside the point. The Twins just never seem to command any respect.
    They’ve been around for sixty years, have won two titles and plenty of divisions. No one blamed them for getting Sandy Koufax’d in 1965. They had a historic home run hitter in Harmon Killebrew, a spark plug who could carry a team in Kirby Puckett, and the Jack Morris ten inning shutout. They don't limit payroll to criminal degree like the Pirates or Reds, and they don't make laughable front office decisions like the Rockies or Royals. They've won more than teams like the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Cubs. But they remain the “Twinkies.”
    They probably became underdogs in 1987, when an 85 win team defied all odds and beat a Jack Clark-less Cardinals team. 1991 was as deserved as can be, but in baseball, teams get branded and it’s up to the team to shake off the label. Instead the underdog designation was leaned into with scrappy players who were taught to de-emphasize power, much to the chagrin of one D. Ortiz. Not too long after the core of the 1991 team went their separate ways did other teams start to exploit this philosophy. They realized they could just lean on their strengths and pulverize a cute team with some nice players-If they were a good team- the Twins from ’91 on could usually beat the so-so and bad teams. The way the Twins have been historically, they’re a good barometer for teams to know if they are true contenders or not.
    But the “put the ball in play and pitch to contact” mantra was pretty dated by the time the 90s rolled around. The Twins kept using it, especially under Tom Kelly. Under Ron Gardenhire they evolved into a more stars n’ scrubs kind of pesky, where as an opposing team you pitch around Mauer and Morneau only to get burned by Nick Punto.
    The team has operated in a more modern way since the new Falvey and Levine regime rolled in after 2016, but the lack of credibility isn’t helped by the shameful playoff losing streak, or the declining ticket sales.
    Sure, they have new uniforms, a bunch of quality players returning from injury and have made big splashes in free agency two of the last three offseasons, but good luck convincing anyone to jump on the bandwagon.
    Going anywhere near that bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at.
    This may be a controversial take, but I think 2022 was something different. To the untrained eye, a middling team got hot in April and let it slip away due to regression to the mean and some key injuries. The starting pitching was mediocre and the bullpen often struggled to get the game to superstar ace reliever Jhoan Duran. The lineup needed another right-handed bat. But I saw flashes of a complete team with correctable flaws and most importantly, a different feel about them. Maybe it was the media getting to go back into the clubhouses and seeing the human side of the players once again. Or maybe something changed when Correa was brought in.
    The easiest difference to pinpoint was that the Twins certainly seemed like a more serious team. A lot of that may have come from Correa, which I think is why the front office appears to be making a real play to bring him back. Getting a dedicated, serious, superstar player who is bilingual and wants to lead seemed to make a big difference. Arraez went from being sillier than Juan Soto in the box, to looking almost menacing at times, and played meaningless games down the stretch on a busted hamstring just to say his batting title was legitimate. Tom Kelly would have hated that. Buxton was a warrior- he’s played through injuries before but nothing like what he tried in ’22. Duran had one of the best reliever season in Twins history and I don’t think he smiled once. Ditto for Sonny Gray. Even Rocco Baldelli letting his inner-Rocco out from time to time on the umpires was a welcome change.
    That isn’t to say having a funny moment from time to time is what led to eighteen straight playoff losses, but with that streak and the somewhat stunning implosion of 2021, it made sense to raise the standard for professionalism a notch. They still struggled against the very best teams but had a winning record against the AL East and played competitive games for the most part, including a few more add-on runs, an Achilles heel of the 2019-2021 teams. Eventually the lineup got overmatched with the system fresh out of right-handed corner guys, Sandy Leon catching half the time, Arraez playing hurt, Gary Sanchez watching his career slip away and Miranda looking gassed. I don’t blame the injuries to the star players; I blame the injuries to the first layer of depth; Royce Lewis’ injury was the most devastating, but Alex Kirilloff’s was a close second. Trevor Larnach looked like he was starting to figure out breaking balls before he tried to play through a hernia. Kyle Garlick going down ended up being a big loss when Jake Cave and Mark Contreras were sent to replace him. How does Jordan Balzovic’s season go if he doesn’t hurt his knee? Those guys were the reinforcements, and the third string options weren’t there, as would be the case with most teams. For example, if the Dodgers top four outfielders all got hurt, that would open holes for them, as well. James Outman looks like a decent prospect, but the thought of him with his sixteen career PA and Joey Gallo being your best options out there is pretty rough. And if you include Kepler’s toe, the Twins had five outfielders (six if you include Lewis) with significant injuries, with all five of them either healthy or “about to be” healthy at the trade deadline. Either Target Field was built on an ancient Native American burial ground, or that is some garbage luck.
    My point isn’t that the 2022 team was amazing, it’s that they were respectable. Sometimes the best laid plans get you kicked in the stones. Running it back and expecting different results goes against conventional wisdom, but sometimes a group needs to experience a good stone kicking. 2001 was the last time Cleveland chased down the Twins and ended up grabbing the division by a good margin and we all remember what happened after that.
    And here we are, with 50M to spend and no gaping holes, with a lineup that could look like this:
    DH Arraez
    CF Buxton
    3B Miranda
    2B Polanco
    1B Kirilloff
    RF Larnach
    LF Gordon
    C Jeffers
    SS Farmer
    Bench:
    Celestino
    Sandy Leon or something
    Eduoard Julien?
    Kepler/Wallner/Gordon
     
    And a rotation that looks like this:
    Sonny Gray
    Tyler Mahle
    Kenta Maeda
    Joe Ryan
    Bailey Ober
     
    Louie Varland
    Simeon Woods-Richardson
    Josh Winder
    Jordan Balazovic
     
    And a bullpen like this:
    Duran
    Lopez
    Jax
    Thielbar
    Alcala
    Moran
    Pagan (the unseriousness is still strong here)
    Henriquez
     
    Not a lot of holes, and you don’t have to squint hard to see this team easily outperforming its 81-81 projection. Another factor is that the Twins front office is even more desperate now, with their jobs very much on the line. They signed the number one free agent last offseason and had the most aggressive trade deadline in Twins history last year (albeit not a high bar to clear). They are going for it more than any Twins team I can remember, and if they can put the payroll space they have available to any sort of good use, this could be a championship club. Don’t let your past trauma and embarrassment convince you otherwise!
    If they get Carlos Rodon with that money, they have the best rotation in the Central with incredible depth and can match up with any team in a short series.
    If they get Correa with that money the lineup is a force and the depth is similarly incredible if Royce Lewis is able to come back and/or Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien arrive.
    If they get Willson Contreras with that money the lineup goes eight deep and leaves 30M or so left to continue adding or to add a huge piece at the deadline.
    It’s interesting stuff, and thanks to this front office’s frugality outside of the handful of big free agent signings, there is a chance for some sustainability here. Mahle, Maeda and Gray are likely gone after this year… and that’s it, unless you’re a big Max Kepler fan. The teams of the 2000s, by comparison, were capped by an astounding lack of quality depth, with massive holes not addressed, or filled with Tony Batista types. Sift through any of the 8-20 batters on a Twins baseball-reference page in the 2000-2010 era and you will be met with the absolute dregs or organized baseball: Brent Gates, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro, Brent Abernathy, Brian Buscher, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Clete Thomas- and some of those guys got 300 at-bats. If Gordon and Celestino are paired with Lee, Martin, Lewis, Wallner and maybe even Jeffers, the difference is clear to see.
    I don’t want to overstate this, because the Astros are on another level with incredible depth that looks to be getting even better, but the Yankees finished second in the AL last year, and if they don’t sign Aaron Judge they are still well into the luxury tax penalty with a lineup consisting of:
    1. Whatever is left of D.J. LeMahieu
    2. Gleyber Torres unless he is traded
    3. Anthony Rizzo
    4. The declining and increasingly cringe-swinging Giancarlo Stanton
    5. Josh Donaldson and his sub .700 OPS
    6. Aaron Hicks
    7. Harrison Bader
    8. Jose Trevino (That all-star nod is looking a little Bryan LaHair-ish)
    9. IKF or a rookie (Volpe and Peraza do look pretty good)
     
    My guess is the Yankees would still make a significant signing, but even if it’s Bogaerts or Correa they have a problem here. For the first time in thirty years, I think I would prefer to be in the Twins boat right now.
    The future is bright, you just have to let yourself see it. For fifteen years or so the Twins were, more or less, embarrassing to be a fan of, alternating between bad, scrappy, and sorta good but always accompanied by a certain unseriousness, whether that be Gardenhire not knowing how to utilize the number two slot in the lineup or how the internet worked, extending Phil Hughes for no reason, or discouraging lifting the ball to the pull side. Thankfully, the roster construction has evolved from a stars and scrubs team (2000’s), to a team full of three WAR guys (2019-2020), to a stars and three WAR guys™ team provided they spend even 30M of the money they have left to reach last year’s payroll, with a front office desperate to make that happen. Becoming a powerhouse is the best way to shake off decades-old narratives and restore the credibility/respect needed to have any intimidation factor come playoff time. Any of the following scenarios work for me:
    Correa and Tucker Barnhart, 40M AAV
    Dansby and Narvaez, 40M AAV
    Rodon and Danny Jansen, 35M AAV (minus some combination of Larnach, Wallner and Kepler, maybe David Festa or someone similar)
    Bogaerts and a trade for Brandon Woodruff (minus Arraez, RIP, plus a top ten org prospect) plus Mike Redmond out of retirement, 40M AAV
    I think it will happen in some combination, but these things tend to not work out the way you imagine. Last year we as fans thought they would trade for a starter after Sonny Gray- we didn’t think it would involve Taylor Rogers and now he's at a career crossroads. Trading Donaldson and IKF was beyond my level of creativity, and I would say that trade was a resounding success.
    The division is terrible, and just as the Twins can probably count on fewer injuries next year, so too can Cleveland count on having some. I cannot stress enough how obnoxious it was that they dealt with no significant injuries the entire year. Their pitching is overrated, their lineup is underrated, but somebody crucial will deal with injury next year. The Twins adding seven WAR via free agency gets them to an 88 win total in theory, and one of their young guys busting out gets them to 91. Then there is the Buxton wildcard- if he misses time but gets healthy for the stretch run, the true talent level goes through the roof. If Kirilloff’s bone shaving operation works (it did for a young Kirk Gibson) he becomes one of the highest upside bats on the team.
    The Guardians are the division champs for now, and give them credit. But the Twins are no longer the team that accommodates Nelson Cruz’s mid-afternoon naps, Brian Dozier’s Rubix cube prowess or Michael Cuddyer’s magic show then has no idea what intensity is in the playoffs. Even if Correa leaves, his impact has been felt and with a few good signings and a couple in-season breaks, this team will strike fear in teams in ways it hasn’t since Killebrew and Carew. Now return to your regularly scheduled refreshing of MLBtraderumors.
  25. Like
    tarheeltwinsfan reacted to Steven Trefz for a blog entry, What if you went to all 81 "away" games? Making the dream a reality...   
    Hello everyone, allow me to introduce myself.
    Steve Trefz, 42 yrs old, Twins fan by virtue of birthplace (farm in rural NorthCentral South Dakota), of influence (Herb and John every summer evening for 3.5 hrs), and of circumstance (first World Series that I remember watching was 1987, which was also the year of the first Metrodome trip and Twins game of my life).
    I have more to share when it comes to "Why the Twins?," but for now I just want to introduce where this blog is headed...literally.
    26 Series
    22 Stadiums
    81 Games
    1 Idea that I just can't shake
    What started out as a dream...a vision...is now actually happening.  The original vision for this journey emerged in the winter of 2019-20.  I had planned out the travel, the cost, the ramifications of attending all 162 Twins games in person  Needless to say, 2020 would not be the year that I attended all 162 games for my favorite squad.  The reasons are legion, and obvious to all of us who have lived through the past few years.  But in the meantime, and in the present, the dream continued.  An altered quest emerged.
    As a resident of Mitchell, SD, I've discovered that while I've loved having a flex-plan season ticket package off and on for the past several years, getting to Minneapolis for home games has become less and less feasible.  In many ways, every pilgrimage to Target Field serves as a reminder that while I feel at "home" at Target Field, going to all 162 essentially "away" games was not going to happen with my current life circumstance (Husband of an awesome lady, and Father of two awesome teenage boys).  The dream, however, refuses to leave me.
    Enter a negotiation, a truce, a window of grace...
    "All 81."  
    An epic, albeit difficult, journey to be with my team out on the road.  A pledge to be present and accounted for in a Twins jersey at each of the enemy stadiums.  A quest to rekindle a love for community, and my country, after a couple of years of being isolated.  A hope for the kind of experience that might shape me for years (if not generations) to come.
    Plus it should be a blast!
    Stay tuned please, I would love to share this journey with you.  I plan to post every few days during the "planning" phase of the season.  Let me know as we go how far into the weeds you want me to get.  I have spreadsheets, data points, mileage and cost estimates, qualitative community assessments for the various cities and neighborhoods, etc.   I'm prepared to nerd out.   I also look forward to sharing the stories, sights, emotions, and insights that emerge from the quest.  I'm prepared to get personal.  I also look forward to a freaking division championship and a World Series run that adds another dozen or so "away" games to my list :)  I'm prepared to get medication to help with that part.
    I'm going to need your help in this.  I'm starting this quest with this community in mind.  The TwinsDaily family (aka you the reader) has helped me navigate through much of the nastiness of the past few years.  It's my prayer and hope that by me going to all 81, you will be right there with me.  
    Grace and peace, and thanks for reading!  Until next time,
    Steve
×
×
  • Create New...