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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    I've had the same reaction to the "fire sale" language. Trading five guys who are going to be lost to FA at the end of the year isn't a fire sale. While painful in its own way, trading four relievers (one of whom isn't arb-eligible and one who will barely get above the minimum) isn't really fire sale either. As you note, that only leaves Correa,
  2. IndianaTwin
    You're a lot higher on Varland than me, but that's okay -- that's part of what comes with being a fan. I do think you're on target in that the Varland trade has seembed to be the biggest lightning rod move in the batch.
  3. IndianaTwin
    Brevity? Mrs. IT would suggest I’m not familiar with that term.
  4. IndianaTwin
    Concise!
  5. IndianaTwin
    I think we're actually reasonably close on our takes, though I may not have been as clear as I could have been. I didn't go as far into 2027-28 as you have; in fact I didn't even go as far into 2026 as you did. My primary point was that it's not that helpful to look at these on a case-by-case basis, but rather that they need to be looked at in aggregate, because one move always has an effect on another. And that it's way too soon to declare whether they won or lost. And @bunsen82adds another variable, the difference in draft picks, that adds a level of complexity that makes these things even tougher to evaluate.
  6. IndianaTwin
    Trades always have a context. And I don't think it's that helpful to use how someone did for another team as the reference point. Their usage elsewhere can be different than what it would have been in Minnesota. Take it to extremes -- say Duran, Jax and Varland all turn into closers with their new team. That wasn't going to happen in Minnesota. With that in mind, I view the trade deadline as: Correa, Duran, Dobnak, Jax and Varland (assuming that all the FAs were gone at year-end). for Mikulski, Mendez (No. 25 in Twins system), Valloria, Tait (3), Abel (MLB), Jimenez, Gallagher (14), Armstrong, Horn, Bradley (MLB), Outman (MLB), Rojas (5), Roden (MLB) and $70M over three years (plus a projected $13M saved on Duran/Jax/Varland/Dobnak). --------- At this point, it's hard to argue it as a win for the Twins. The effect on this year's roster is that they lost their top three relievers and the starting shortstop for no one who's really guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster (and only Abel, Bradley, Outman and Roden realistically have a shot). There's also no inclination on how this year's $36M savings on Correa/Duran/Jax/Varland/Dobnak will be spent. BUT, it has the potential to be a huge win for the Twins if they use the money savings well and even a few of these guys pan out.
  7. IndianaTwin
    Have you thought of changing your name to Betterbury?
  8. IndianaTwin
    And the 2024 he was off to before injury. He had a 124 OPS+ and was on pace for 33 HR, etc. He's not quite 26 yet.
  9. IndianaTwin
    In my previous post, the example that I considered using was Ryan or Lopez for Casas and a position player (Mayer?). (When you get the GM job, can I be your assistant? We seem to be on the same page.)
  10. IndianaTwin
    I get what you're saying, but... To be competitive I think you need to have a couple studs amongst your young guys. You have the studs in place in Ryan, Lopez, Buxton. Trading them and Jeffers gives you more prospects, but you then have to assume that several of the prospects are going to become the studs. If you're going to assume that several of the prospects are going to become studs, you might as well pair them with the existing studs you have. I would listen to offers on Ryan and Lopez (and only trade one), but I'm only trading them for two players already in the majors. I'm not sure other teams will offer that. You can say that I'm a dreamer...
  11. IndianaTwin
    Overall, they've cast themselves with youth, which I think is the right call. If the youth don't come through, signing Kyle Tucker and Pete Alonso wouldn't be enough to put them over the edge. But if the youth do come through, a Santana-level 1B along with 2-3 Coulombe-level relievers would go a long way in shoring up the gaps you've named.
  12. IndianaTwin
    All in all, this FO seems to make a higher than average number of moves. I hope that's the case again. I think the challenge (both for the FO and for fans' patience) is that most of the moves are likely to be what I call needle-nudgers rather than big splashes. Signing Orze and trading someone with little chance of playing for a potential backup catcher in Jackson are both needle-nudgers.
  13. IndianaTwin
    I like the thought, but with ownership uncertain, I don't see it happening. If his arb salary is the MLBTR-projected $6.6M and ownership would give the blessing for 3 years at $10-$12M per season, if I'm the front office, I would stay with the $6.6M on Jeffers and use the extra $3-5M on a bullpen guy.
  14. IndianaTwin
    Implied here seems to be the encouragement for folks to not get their collective shorts in a wad when not every need has been addressed by the end of the winter meetings.
  15. IndianaTwin
    I'd agree with you on this batch of seven. My DFA order would be McCusker, Kreidler, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Julien, Outman and Pereda as needed. I assume your roster is four columns by 11 lines in order to accommodate the current roster, but it looks like filling the three reliever blanks would be a good fit! Let's start with McCusker for Coulombe.
  16. IndianaTwin
    Actually, a few years ago, they did state their intentions early in the offseason and got excoriated for it.
  17. IndianaTwin
    I think I can shorten this article: Guys who are this list in the way that Astudillo was once considered a CF by virtue of playing a couple innings there on a 100-degree day when others were dropping like flies* -- they ain't gonna be in the OF this year (2): Lewis, Keaschall. Likely DFAs when the roster spot is needed (4): Gasper, McKusker, Fitzgerald, Kreidler. Guys too far away, but voting "present" (4): Rosario, Mendez, Olivar, Fedko. Now we are down to the 10 remaining: Buxton -- Duh. Wallner -- A career 127 OPS+ has to get dibs on extended playing time, despite last year's downturn (that still was 113). Larnach -- Enough ink has been spilled elsewhere, so I don't need to rehash. He's a starter (LF or DH) until he isn't on the roster. Roden, Martin, Outman -- Guys who have shown snippets of MLB success, each with some redeemable quality. Outman has no options, so he plays himself on or off the roster in spring training. Clemens -- Yeah, he's on the list, but not really. Could be in the previous bullet except that infield is really his path. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez -- will each get a shot at some point, either because of injury or from beating down the door (assuming they stay healthy themselves). *I remember, because I was lodged in the upper deck at Wrigley, with no air movement.
  18. IndianaTwin
    It would actually be an interesting exercise (in a macabre sort of way) to crowdsource the projected order of DFA, or at least what our order would be. I agreed on Kiersey first. McCusker and Kreidler are next for me, followed by Gasper. (Hopefully following the signing of Coulombe...)
  19. IndianaTwin
    Thanks. That's older than I realized -- I was thinking of it in terms of his not having had much MLB opportunity yet. See my comment above about catchers developing later. EDIT to add: When I went to baseball-reference.com to see his number of MLB PAs (118 over two seasons), it actually lists his position as "Catcher and Pitcher." Apparently 3.1 innings will do that!
  20. IndianaTwin
    Don't forget Gasper. To me, he was the floor and Pereda is still in the "prospect" category. I think it makes sense to DFA Kiersey first because of the imbalance of OFs and INFs, but I think getting Jackson makes it even easier to DFA Gasper when it comes his turn. Jackson becomes the current backup (emphasis on current, because it's still so early in the offseason) and Pereda remains as the prospect.
  21. IndianaTwin
    I'm responding to your comment, LC, but it could just as easily be responding to several above. Jackson may well regress to his historical average. But he also may not. I remember a Bill James article stating that the most common position player to defy the aging curve is the backup catcher. Because of the emphasis on defense for catchers (and which Jackson apparently provides), AAAA catchers have to focus their energies on that side of the ball if they are going to stick. As a result, their offensive development often lags behind their defensive development and some do improve into their 30s. It's hard for a starting catcher to improve in their 30s because their body has taken such a pounding, but that's much less of an issue for a career backup like Jackson. I'd also note that he was a No. 6 overall pick, so there's some sense of pedigree. And let's not overlook the fact that he's a Christmas baby, so maybe he'll be a gift for us! 😀
  22. IndianaTwin
    For pretty much any team, more transactions are about nudging the needle than they are about making a splash. This is one more of many of the former (see Orze, Eric) that will happen before Opening Day. For the reasons others have noted above, it makes sense in that context.
  23. IndianaTwin
    Out-of-market streaming: MLB.TV remains the option for out-of-market viewers (with the usual stupid blackout rules). FTFY. With games against two ALC teams and two NLC teams blacked out here, that's roughly 20 percent of the games not being available on MLB.TV. We get a few of those back because of the Sox being on our cable package. Annoying.
  24. IndianaTwin
    Alex Lange and his 26 saves from 2023.
  25. IndianaTwin
    And because of not being able to predict which ones it will be, it's hard for me to fault them for not locking guys into positions in the minor leagues. The FO gets bashed for not having guys focus on a single position, but with the (low) success rate (among all major leaguers, not just the Twins) and with a three-man (non-catching) bench, there has to be a fair number of guys able to play multiple positions. Just like there's been general acknowledgement on these pages that a team has to plan for something like 8-10 starting pitching options, a couple years ago I went back through some prior pages on baseball-reference.com and found that you have to anticipate that somewhere around 15-17 guys are going to get 100-150 plate appearances or more. The job of a front office is to get to the point of having that 15-17 guys at the beginning of the season that you feel confident in giving that many at bats. That can include a Jenkins, in that you can see him getting his 150 PAs from July or August on. I feel good about the 10-deep on the starting pitcher side. The challenge on the offensive side is that it's hard to imagine a 17. When you consider the need for depth, with the current collection of hitters, it's hard not to hope that Julien recovers something and fits there. But when you factor in the need for position flexibility and the lack of options, it's also hard not to think that he'd better come out of the gate swinging if he makes it to spring training.
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