IndianaTwin

With $40MM on the line for the second year, it's hard to imagine Bauer opting out after one year. But I agree that Gonsolin and May would be incredibly expensive. BaseballTradeSimulator.com suggests that it would take either Kirilloff or Lewis plus someone like Sabato or Celestino to get May. To get Gonsolin would require only Duran or Balazovic plus Sabato or Celestino. But Price could be interesting, depending on how much cash LA adds. To the OP, from what I understand, Boston is already is covering $32M of his remaining salary, leaving only $32M for the Dodgers or his new team. The same simulator says that Enlow should get Price and $15M of the remaining salary. I think I'd do Enlow for two years of Price at $8.5M per year. The issue is that I'm not sure that's enough salary relief to be worth it for the Dodgers.

Ash, we've been in agreement on the Cruz signing. But it's still a topsy-turvy world, and maybe the (logic) of two people don't amount to a hill of beans. But this is our hill. And these are our beans! It's small sample size with just 60 games, but here's what I found in a look-thru of the league's OPS at DH. (In case you didn't catch it, you can hover over a team and see the OPS and the number of PAs by each person who played the position.) Minn (Cruz, .997), KC (Soler, .809), Cle (Reyes, .800), Det (Miggy, .743), Bos (J.D. Martinez, .709), LAA (Ohtani .657), and Chicago (Encarnacion, .631) all had one person who got at least half the team's PAs. Without knowing how injuries played out for teams, it appears that those were the teams that used the "primary DH" approach. It's just that Cruz was so much better than them. Three of the others were above the league average and three were worse. Whether by design or the result of injuries, the other eight teams were using the "rotate guys through the spot" approach. The issue is that to do that, you have to have enough good hitters to make it work. No team did, apparently. The most regular DH for NYY (Stanton), Balt (Nunez) and Tor (Vlad) all were at least .867, but none had more than 94 PAs, so that left about 150-160 PAs to be spread out over other guys. Each of those teams scattered those PAs over at least nine guys. When you do that, you're almost certainly going to have some guys that were lousy, and they each did. (FWIW, the Twins had seven guys besides Cruz who got DH PAs, but they only totaled 38 PAs. Three had just one and two more had four apiece.) The five remaining teams not only spread out their PAs out, they did it among lousy hitters. The OPS of the most common DH for those teams was .717, .704, .654, .485 and .455. You noted that on average the Twins more than a .200 advantage at that spot. Also worth is noting is that even if Cruz drops .100, the Twins would still have had the best DHs in the league by .033 over the second-best team and at least .081 over every other team. So to your original point, if you can spend $13M and have a reasonable likelihood of creating that kind of significant advantage at any spot in the batting order, do it.

Can't wait until we sign Palbo Sincheeze.

Who knows how these things work, but Susan Slusser tweeted mid-afternoon that the Giants could use a left-handed hitting outfielder with options, and a few hours later the Twins have picked up what seems like an asset. To me, that sounds like Anderson wasn’t even high on their radar, but they had already done enough due diligence to call SF and say, “How about Wade for Anderson?” This seems like another instance of an opportunistic front office sneaking in to make their team incrementally better. I think making lots of moves that each make the team incrementally better is the M.O. of Falvey and Levine, and I like it.

Guy struggles as a starter for the Giants. Then starts to look good as a reliever. Then gets traded to the Twins. So help me, but if he stands on the mound and does the bpbpbpbpttt thing before he pitches, I think we got us a keeper.

Nope. In another post earlier this offseason, I suggested the FO asking for a Word version of Maeda's contract so they could do a search-and-replace, swapping Maeda's name for Hill and having the same arrangement for him. If he does enough to cost us $10M, cool problem to have!

Indeed. Stats on depression and other mental illnesses are notoriously difficult to get. One source names 18 percent of adults being affected each year, but only 37 percent of those getting treatment. It's cliche, but I'm grateful he's willing to share. I'm one of the 37 percent of the 18, and there are certainly many more of us present on TD. But his story is likely to make much more of an impact on people than any of ours will. I'm even more of a fan of him and this signing than I was before.

I know there's not supposed to be any math on TwinsDaily, but here goes: Aside from the catcher, 8 other starters are needed in 162 games, less the 9 interleague games in which no DH is used. That equals 1287 starts needed. Say the 5th outfielder and 6th infielder get about 40 starts each. That leaves 1207 for the remaining nine guys. Right now that's Sano, Polanco, Simmons, Arraez, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Cruz, and someone else (perhaps Kirilloff). With the roster flexibility they have, they can distribute them easily and have an average of 134 starts per player. But they won't. Cruz and Donaldson will get a few less because of age and to protect from injury. Spread those extra starts around and it's about 140 for the rest. And then assume one or more will spend some time on the IL, freeing up more starts. Bottom line is that signing Cruz won't keep Arraez from playing 140 games. Assuming he's healthy and hitting, he'll get between 130-150 starts. With Rocco's rest patterns, that's what most of those guys can expect.

Wonderful article on Simmons opening up about dealing with depression: https://www.ocregister.com/2021/02/02/andrelton-simmons-opens-up-about-depression-and-thoughts-of-suicide/?fbclid=IwAR0aRh1Kke4nVsVKxO43cnuMFl-gIGBm4x_S5CP785JK1hxs6OvqcSzUfjk

This is great. I could use a Vari-Pitch propeller.

To Cody or others -- have there been any actual statements from the front office that lead us to the $125M that people keep quoting? Or is just a guess that people have speculated on, based on the notion that teams will spend less this year? I've asked this on a thread or two, but haven't had anyone respond.

Seeing Didi’s two-year deal following Semien’s larger one-year deal makes this contract look even better.

Concur. And the nice thing about signing Simmons is that that 11th man doesn't have to be able to play SS. With Donaldson's health, someone who features being a corner guy makes sense, which led me to Todd Frazier and would explain the Marwin rumors.

In honesty, I'm not that bothered by the notion of Kirilloff starting with a few weeks in St. Paul. I mean, I'm annoyed by the notion employers taking advantage of employees, but I think there's legitimate baseball reasons to do it. This is written without knowing the rest of the roster, and it assumes health on the part of everyone, but: It is true that he hasn't had any AAA at bats. If he's going to stumble a bit in going up a level, I'd rather it be on the east side of the river. It gives a couple weeks to explore whether Arraez can play a passable left field. Or Cave, if he's shown anything in camp. It gives opportunity to pick an opportunity for success for Kirilloff. Rather than opening day against opening day pitchers, and if buys the time they want, they could use the mid-April trip to Los Angeles and Oakland, for example. That's about as low-profile as one could get.Not saying I'd go that route. Just saying that it's defensible. It also does fit the pattern of this FO not tending to assume that a rookie will be a rookie at season start. It's for that reason that I think we'll still at least one, and perhaps two additional starting bats signed, with the idea that opportunities will arise for Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Lewis, etc., when there are injuries and they've demonstrated that they are on top of their game in AAA.

Someone smarter than me will hopefully respond, but my understanding is that playoffs don't count toward service time. With a new collective bargaining agreement needed, there's a reasonable likelihood the rules will be changing as well, but I'll not be surprised if they go the "he still needs some seasoning" route for a few weeks.

I'm meeting some guys for breakfast on Saturday, but hoping to get home in time to see “Yeah-Yeah” (Luis Arraez), Timmy and Tommy (Tyler Duffey), “Squints” (Randy Dobnak), “Ham” (Mitch Garver), Benny “The Jet” (LaTroy Hawkins), Smalls (Thad Levine), Bertram (Devin Smeltzer) and Kenny DeNunez (Tommy Watkins) do a reading from The Sandlot. For having to settle for virtual, the lineup actually looks pretty good: https://www.mlb.com/twins/community/twinsfest

This isn't a takeaway, but more of a reminder that this is another example of why we shouldn't be getting our shorts in a wad when we don't see activity in November, December, and January. That's not the way this front office works. Perhaps I'm missing one of the larger transactions, but the average date on which Donaldson, Maeda, Cruz, Marwin, Lynn, Odo, and now Simmons were first acquired via trade or signing works out to Feb. 7. I'm guessing they aren't done.

Now they can sign Cruz to play left. Surrounded by Donaldson, Simmons and Buxton, he’d only have to cover about 20 square feet.

With how contracts for relievers have gone, it's hard to imagine Rosenthal or Colome coming this low, but I'd love to see splurging on one of those two in the $5-$6M range and then two from among these in the $2-$3M range: Jeremy Jeffress. Tyler Clippard. Joakim Soria. Mark Melancon. Darren O'Day Brandon Kintzler Along with a flyer on David Robertson and Steve Cishek or Pedro Strop on a minor league contract. While I'm at it, I'd give any of them a $250-$500 buyout on a second year. In my mind, I'd rather get a fistful of those guys for $10M than spend that much on one Hand. Young guys will still get their opportunities in a bullpen like that, but I'd rather not start the season with too many young guys getting their feet wet.

True. Though to be fair, Bauer did a lot more of his learning in the majors. Paxton pitched only three games in the majors before his age 25 season. Bauer's career stats are worsened quite a bit by having thrown more than 360 inning by that point. Compare the last five years and it's a different story, not even taking into account that Bauer was available for 827 innings during that time, while Paxton was only available for 588.

Did anyone from Elizabethton get retained in another position? Just before Thanksgiving, on a road trip through the area, we took a slight detour to drive past the park. Still had the Twins signage, but the only folks present were a couple of city employees doing grounds work. I was hoping to get a bargain basement E-Twins hat on clearance.

Odo, using the $2M saved for a Maeda-type deal with Mike Foltynewicz. If Folty gets the starts/innings to make for a bigger payday, that's a good problem to have.

Are you equating "significant" with "splashy"? Because the Maeda and Odo moves qualify as pretty significant to me. I think the strength of this FO is their ability to make under-the-radar moves. Pineda, Cruz, building up solid bullpens out of nothing, etc.

First post? Great job -- you've captured the movie well.