IndianaTwin

Gotta like having Wrigley.

No hockey?!?!

It’s in syndication, so it’s on different times for all of us (7:30 on the South Bend station), but we should have started a Game Thread.

Hey, not trying to beat a dead horse, Bean, but I just caught this. As I noted in my first post, in 1966 there was only one Cy Young across both leagues and voters just listed one person on their ballots. Koufax got all 20 votes. We'll never know, obviously, but I'm guessing that if they were using the later pattern of separate awards and a 5-3-1 ballot, Kaat likely would have won the AL award easily. Using the stats they paid attention to at the time... He won 25 games. McLain won 20, Wilson 18 and no one else had more than 16. He was sixth in ERA, but the leader only went 12-10, followed by guys with 13, 13, 11 and 14 wins. He was second in strikeouts, just 20 behind the leader, who went 9-8. He pitched 40 more innings than anyone else in the league. He had 19 complete games and no one else had more than 14. He beat the aforementioned McLain and Wilson in ERA, strikeouts, innings and complete games. While that didn't get him any Cy Young votes over Koufax, he did finish fifth in the MVP voting, the only pitcher in the top 10. It's hard to tell with 1962, where NL pitchers (led by Drysdale) got all 20 votes. There wasn't a dominant AL pitcher, but Kaat was third in WAR (meaningless then) and top six in wins, ERA, innings, strikeouts, innings, complete games and shutouts (tied for first), but he probably would have gotten some support.

Clearly it's a peak vs. longevity question on Viola vs. Kaat, but even "peak" is subject to interpretation. Viola's peak is driven by three years. His fourth-best season by ERA+ was 110 and he only had five seasons where he was even above league-average. Kaat had six years above 110 and another six when he was above league average. Said another way, Viola only had three years when he was better than what Michael Pineda has been over his Twins' career. I don't say that to disparage Viola -- he made a great contribution to the franchise. But to talk about "all-time great" for a 60-year franchise, I think you need more than two great and one really good season. If a peak that short is sufficient, one could argue for Shane Mack over Viola. And certainly Bob Allison. PS: I suspect we could have the same type of "peak vs. longevity" conversation when I see Brad Radke and Jim Perry omitted. But hey, it's all in good fun and reminiscing. ?

I have no need for Manfred. Manfred causes pain.

I'm enjoying reading the lists, but... No. 10 Kaat: 15 yrs., 190-159, 3.34 ERA, 133 CG, 23 SHO, 3014.5 IP, 1851 K, 1.231 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 12 Gold Gloves, HOF (largely based on his success as a Twin). No. 9 Viola: 8 yrs., 112-93, 3.86 ERA, 54 CG, 10 SHO, 1772.2 IP, 1214 K, 1.295 WHIP, 111 ERA+, 0 Gold Gloves. 2 HOF votes before falling off. Viola does have a Cy Young, but in Kaat's best year by ERA+ (1966) there was only one Cy across the majors and voters only listed one person. Some guy named Koufax was the unanimous choice. Kaat was, however, No. 5 in the MVP voting that year. Viola was 10th in the MVP the year he got the Cy. I think you've got those two in the wrong order. (And if I'm guessing correctly on the remaining eight, I'm thinking I'm going to suggest you missed another pitcher better than Viola, but I'll hold off on that comment. ?)

Willie isn't gone, however. ?

I'm in the in-between generation, but he's always been my favorite as well. I was five during his last great season in 1971, so I don't remember that. And though his last decent season came in 1975, when I was nine, he had the game-winning homer every day when I was throwing the tennis ball against the side of the house.

Thanks, LA Vikes Fan! Could you please add this perspective to the bazillion TD posts we're seeing about the Twins not yet having made any moves to address the rotation? Tomorrow is only Dec. 1, folks. (And while you're at it, please cut-and-paste to most "news" sites these days, but that's another discussion. ?)

Not sure how these rules all work, but according to Seth's "Arbitration Deadline Day Thread,"... "...lefty Devin Smeltzer was DFAd, cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A."

The Yanks have already demonstrated they are willing to be patient with Severino, and he was healthy enough by year-end to be back on the mound. Realistically, they probably consider him their No. 2 behind Cole. To quote a Minnesotan, he ain't going nowhere.

Mostly unrelated, a question I've been wondering about is this: Even though No. 7 is retired for Joe Mauer, can Austin Martin be issued uniform number .007? I've heard he has a Golden Eye at the plate.

Yes.

And the good news for many Twins Daily readers is that they’ll be able to walk more comfortably tomorrow after getting their shorts unwadded. By my count, we had at least five posts with more than 200 comments in response to one article from Ken Rosenthal saying that unnamed executives were suggesting (hoping?) that the Twins would be trading him. I, too, hope there are some starting pitcher signings/trades, but I’ll choose to continuing walk comfortably for a couple more months. Can we at least stay calm on that one, folks?

When Hamilton was with the Sox a couple years, I managed to get a picture of him sitting beside Ryan Burr in the bullpen.

Most enjoyable Christmas gift I've gotten in a long time is this T-shirt. (I'm the one on the right.) It was especially cool to have Provus track me down on social media and ask for a copy of the picture. And, when asking a question during one of the sessions at TwinsFest, to have LaTroy Hawkins say, "I miss the Metrodome too." I'll go with what's been said -- 8-0 in the World Series, cheap ($29 for four tickets, four sodas, four hot dogs and a program, if I recall), the pressure rush at the doors, and the knowledge that there would be a game when I drove 300-500 miles.

From Rotoworld.com: Astros owner Jim Crane said Thursday that the team will "probably" extend a qualifying offer to impending free agent Justin Verlander. Verlander is said to be looking for a multi-year contract, but the qualifying offer -- which was one year, $18.9 million last winter -- could be rather enticing after he missed all of the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery. The veteran right-hander will turn 39 years old just before the start of spring training in 2022. He posted a stellar 2.56 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 443 innings (69 starts) for Houston between 2018-2020. SOURCE: Houston Chronicle Oct 7, 2021, 2:49 PM ET ------------------------------------------------------------------ From IT: That insight is worth what I paid for it, and Rotoworld is a free site, but in the midst of CBA negotiation, etc., it seems like quite a risk for Verlander to turn down a QO if it comes, particularly from a World Series team.

The excellent* overlay shows that he has a “highly repeatable” motion. That’s a buzzword that’s worth something for him, isn’t it? *And by excellent, I mean it had me laughing at the variation. It’s almost like a live batter could have swung at both of them.

I'm not sure that DeJong is the answer. He's owed a bit more than $6 million in 2022 and $9 million in 2023, followed by a $2 million option. And his declining OPS is already below Simmons' at a similar age.

Please not Stroman. I'm not sure I can handle several years of TwinsDaily articles arguing whether or not Stroman is an "ace." ?

I think Chief was using baseball-reference.com, while you were using Fangraphs. Or the other way around, I'm not sure.

Mostly tongue-in-cheek and having fun with numbers. Bit in one sense I do hope he makes a run at it, because that would mean he upped his overall production, potentially including his defense, enough to have continued earning playing time rather than following the regression pattern of most of the guys I mentioned.

With that kind of start, one has to look at where he might end up on the career list. The current leader is Reggie Jackson at 2597, prompting two questions — can Sano get there and can anyone beat him to the mark. To the first, with 1,000 strikeouts in 661 games, he’s essentially striking out 1.5 times per game. Continuing at that rate, he’d need to play about 1065 more games. How reasonable is that? On its simplest terms, we have a concern about health, thinking he’s missed a lot of games. However, last year he played 53 of 60. Over a full season, that’s pace for 143 games. This year he’s on pace for about 133. If he averages 133 games per season going forward, he ends up with 200 whiffs. That would mean being able to play eight more seasons to get the roughly 1,600 he needs. That’s to age 36. In the baseball-reference.com “Similarity Scores,” six of the 10 players most like him through age 28 are still active. The other four are Carlos Quentin, Rob Deer, Jay Buhner, and Bo Jackson. Quentin had his last productive year at age 30 and retired at 31. Jackson’s career ended at 31 due to injury. Deer’s last year as a regular (I hesitate to call it “productive,” based on his stats) was at 32, followed by a handful of games a few years later. (I don’t remember that gap — was he hurt?) Buhner’s last year with more than 120 games was at age 32, though he had several part-time years after that. Of the guys whose career stats are similar to Sano, you can add Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, and Marcus Thames. Duvall is playing somewhat regularly at age 32, Gallo is only 27, and Thames never played more than 120 games on the way to playing 36 games at age 34. The common thread in those is not being a regular past the early 30s. In Buhner’s case, he also relied on his defense for playing time. Those comps don’t paint a rosy picture for Sano playing another eight years. There are two other interesting cases near the top of the list. Adam Dunn is third. He actually played 131 games in his final season at age 34 and had an OPS+ of 115, He well may have had enough in the tank to get the 218 he needed, particularly given that he had 159 whiffs in that age 34 season. The other is Jim Thome, who is second only to Reggie, falling 49 short. Thome played regularly until age 38 and then semi-regularly for two more years and part-time for one. His OPS+ was still above 100 at the end, so it’s conceivable he could have played the remaining games he needed. The difference here, of course, is that Thome was much more effective as an overall hitter than Sano has ever bend. Thome got a slight head start by making it to the majors as a 20 year-old, but he had “only” 882 whiffs by age 28. Thome appeared washed up at age 34, when he appeared in only 59 games and had an OPS+ of 85. Had he retired then, he would have ended with just 1762 strikeouts. However, it was at age 35 that he transitioned to becoming a full time DH. From then on, he played another 805 games, striking out 786 times. Throughout his career, his strikeout rate was much lower than Sano’s, as he struck out only five more times than games played. Bottom line is that he was so productive that he stayed around a long time. Barring Sano turning into Thome, I can’t see him making it to Reggieland. But even if he did, would that be enough? Perhaps not, In my mind, one particular player seems positioned to make a run at Reggie — Giancarlo Stanton. Already fifth among active players with 1543 through age 31, he has whiffed 1.18 times per game. Continuing at that rate, he needs less than 900 more games. He’s on pace to play 137 games this year with an OPS+ of 134, just below his career average. With his overall hitting, he has a much better likelihood of having a Thome-like end to his career. If Thome can play 800 games after age 34, Stanton can easily play 900 after age 31. Finally, I’ll note that if Stanton DOESN’T reach Reggie, it could well be because of the significant time he missed the past two years, with only 18 games in 2019 and 23 in the shortened 2020. In those two years, he probably lost about 200 games. Another 236 strikeouts would put him close to 1800 by the end of his age 31 year, meaning he’d only have to play 675 games going forward at his current whiff rate. That would be five seasons at 135 games, which seems eminently doable.

Thing is, that's exactly what my friend the White Sox fan said about. "He was pretty effective, but he was maddening to watch. I'm glad he's gone." I think that comes with the territory with him. I, too, am in the camp that says they might well (and maybe even should) bring him back. Even with the start, his ERA+ has actually gotten back to the plus side at 107. I do think that his propensity for walks and soft (bloop) contact makes him particularly ill-suited for the stupid extra-inning rule that has him starting with one of the bases already occupied.