IndianaTwin

To play devil's advocate, Killebrew flirted with 50 homers on multiple occasions at a time when there had been roughly the same number of 50 homer season as there had been .400 seasons, and isn't power a part of being a good hitter? Wouldn't someone who hits .300 with 30 homers, 40 doubles and 100 walks be considered a better hitter than a .300 hitter with 5 homers, 20 doubles, 50 walks? If so, then the next question might be, which is better -- .280 with 30 homers, 40 doubles and 70 walks vs. .310 with 10 homers, 30 doubles, and 70 walks. And so on. I think the definition of "best hitter" does take power into play, as well as the good eye that generates walks. That's where OPS is helpful. It blends the combination of getting on base and demonstrating power in a way that values both. Similarly, isn't someone who hits .300 in 1968 in the American League, when .301 led the league, better than someone who hits .300 in the 1930 National League, when the league average was .303. Context matters. That's the advantage of an indexed number like OPS+. It allows comparing across eras. It says that when you take the season, the league, and the ballpark into effect, Killebrew was on average 48 percent better than the average hitter in the league. Great as he was, Carew was "only" 37 percent better than the average player. Because of his power, Killebrew was being more effective with his hits, and he was doing it in a slightly harder context. Don't get me wrong -- I'll take a lineup of nine Rod Carews any day of the week! I just think I'll score more runs with nine Harmon Killebrews.

There's at least two issues with using Offensive War in comparing Carew with Killebrew, however. First is that Offensive WAR includes baserunning, where Carew is going to gain significantly on Killebrew. Second is that there is a position adjustment. Two of Carew's four years on this list had the advantage of being at 2B, whereas Killebrew was playing a lot of 1B in his best years.

I'm 53 and just missed Allison. I get the sense that folks my age and younger dramatically underrate Allison. If you use just the Twins years as was done for Killebrew and others above, his OPS+ is actually 131 over 10 seasons.

My gut reaction was to easily agree with you, but then I discovered that Hrbek had an OPS+ of 128 in 1747 games and Mauer 124 in 1858 games. In fact, in OPS plus, Hrbek's 128 is even above Puckett's 124. Looking at OPS+ in Twins years only gives us Killebrew (148), Carew (137), Oliva (131), Hrbek (128), Mauer and Puckett (124).

Is overlooking Odorizzi and Chacin intentional?

Know your ‘staches, people. Rollie Fingers had a handlebar. Al Hrabosky and Randy Dobnak have a Fu Manchu.

Give Odo a bonus! As in, go back to him and say, "We'll bump you up to $22MM for this year if you give us two more years at $16.6MM each and a $1MM buyout on a $15MM contract for 2023." That's like giving him 3/$56.2MM now, which is slightly better than three years at his $18.7MM QO. Plus, it's guaranteed and slightly front-loaded, which helps him from an investment perspective* and it's slightly beneficial to the FO for planning purposes as other guys move up the arbitration calculation, etc. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results (particularly in this market) yadda, yadda, yadda...

Do we know if Chacin has an opt out? And if he would accept a minor league spot if it came to that?

Hablo solomente un poco Espanol, pero bienvenido a todos.

Are you saying there are only five “true #1” pitchers in the majors? Because that’s how many guys had 200-plus innings and a 3.25 or lower FIP last year. When Berrios and Odorizzi are two of the top 20 guys in fWAR last year, that seems a lot better than a “very good #2” and a “starter who can really fill the #3 spot.”

Excellent points, both in naming the concern, but also in noting that they have seemed to get good staff.

Speaking of The Titanic, my wife had her colonoscopy yesterday. (TMI, I know.) While there, we were joking with the receptionist, who described having a friend who went to see "Titanic" in the theater. Before it started, he stood, faced the audience, and announced, "I don't want to spoil the movie for everyone, but the boat sinks." PS: It was clear by the way. I know -- WAAAAAAY TMI. PPS: I will wait until Valentine's Day is past before revealing to my wife that I've shared the results of her colonoscopy on TD.

I'll give it an A, though I have to say that the vast majority (all?) of us don't have all the information to make an accurate assessment. Most of us are like the student in the eighth row, trying to suggest that the teacher that e = cm^2, rather than the other way around.

Great article. Deserves a Like just for the picture of the kid and Gibson.

It ranks up there with Grant Balfour and Bob Walk among names you don’t want your pitcher to have.

Remember that Hill can be moved to the 60-day IL in a few days, so Chacin can get the spot later if he earns it. Effectively, with adding Maeda and dropping Graterol and Raley, this puts us at 39.... ...with several days yet to sign Taijuan Walker.

As a SQUIRREL, we much prefer you getting hit with brilliance than with a car.

Pending a physical.

Given that virtually every team goes more than five deep over the course of the season, it would be interesting to extend your list at least Nos. 6 and 7. Based on your notes section, I’m guessing that the Twins would rank significantly higher. That’s part of what I think is the strength of their rotation. I don’t think an injury to someone in the top three will have the devastating effect for the Twins as it would for the others. I’m too cheap to pay for The Athletic. As you beyond who he’s sandwiched by, does Berrios seem about right. That ranking seems low to me, considering that he’s still A bit younger than average and should improve. I do find it interesting that he’s ranked a spot ahead of Wheeler, who this board was generally enamored with and seemed to rank higher than Berrios.

Fans attending the Home Opener (See No. 3): I am your second-favorite Twins Fan.

You better believe it! I love train rides. Train rides are much more fun to me than wallowing.

Concur that it's a now a more open spot, but not I still think he has a leg up with the experience and simply to be able to have another body available in Rochester if/when needed. But seeing this front office, if he pitches reasonably well in spring training but is outdone by a rookie, I could envision them trading Chacin for a lottery pick. Teams could wait to see if the Twins drop him (or if he has an opt out), but if they can get a bit of a market for him, some team might bite.

I don’t think the Dodgers held him back/moved him to the bullpen to save money. They had a rotation of Kershaw-Buehler-Ryu-Hill and wanted to get starts to Urias and May, and they had seen that Maeda can effectively transition to the bullpen. But I’m sure they didn’t mind that it also saved them some money. :-)

I’m with you on liking the strong and deep pen and it being more valuable that the sum of its parts. Have been ever since Ward, Henke, et al. And some combination of Nathan/Crain/Neshak/Romero and more. But I think the Twins pen may have just gotten a little longer. One of the more impressive outings of last year, in my mind, was the game in which Dobnak came in down 6-1 against the Indians and threw four innings of shutout relief, effectively resetting the bullpen. In an earlier post, someone quoted Earl Weaver as saying the best place for development is long relief. I’d not be surprised to see Dobnak or Smeltzer slot into that role. And if the rotation is going well, they could do with Maeda what the Dodgers did, slide him to the pen for the stretch run and playoffs.

So, for what it’s worth, among pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, the Twins now have 5 of the top 51 in fWAR (plus Hill). Talent isn’t spread out evenly, but if the top 30 guys are the No. 1s and the next 30 are the No. 2s, etc., they have basically an average No. 1 (Berrios, 17th) at No. 1, a slightly below-average No. 1 at No. 2 (Odorizzi, 20th), average No. 2s at No. 3 and No. 4) (Bailey, 44th; Pineda, 48th), and a slightly below average No. 2 at No. 5 (Maeda, 54th). To that, add Hill, who many folks are very high on,consider that Bailey was dramatically improved in the second half, know that the time Pineda misses is at the beginning of the season rather than the end,Maeda got those numbers despite about 30 percent of his outings coming in relief. He didn’t go to the pen because he was hurting. Rather, the Dodgers had great depth and knew from prior history that Maeda is the rare starter who can transition smoothly to the pen and who gives them excellent length there. It didn’t hurt that the Dodgers saved a little money in doing so. Who’s to say the Twins can’t also lengthen their bullpen in August/September iif others pitch as well as we hope.add a lottery pick in Chacin, who is one year removed from having an ERA+ of 112 over two years in which he averaged 186 innings. and Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe. And Duran, etc.I highly doubt we have two bullpen games in the playoffs, folks. And for that we gave up cash and Graterol. No, we don’t have Cole or Verlander, but in eyeballing depth charts, I’m not sure I see anyone who has a deeper rotation. Games 3 and 4 count as wins too.