harmony55

Kolten Wong certainly brought down Seattle's production at second base in 2023. In the first half of the season the Mariners ranked 11th in the league with 0.3 fWAR from second base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lstats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=30 Aided by Wong's DFA on July 31, the Mariners in 73 second-half games ranked sixth in the league with a robust 2.7 fWAR (and a league-average 101 wRC+) from second base (the Twins ranked first): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=31 The second-half rebound was fueled by Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore, who remain on the Seattle roster. The Mariners have since added Luis Urias, who would likely slot at third base if the season started today. Second-base prospect Ryan Bliss is projected to debut in 2024. Like most teams, the Seattle Mariners have offseason needs but second base does not top the list.

Thanks again for the feedback. The post that brought Kolten Wong into the conversation asked whether Jorge Polanco could be this year's Wong, noting that Wong last offseason carried credentials similar to Polanco's current credentials. The post provided the eerily identical bWAR rates for their careers, but explicitly noted Wong's higher defensive value while implicitly conceding Polanco's higher offensive value. Nevertheless last offseason Wong was coming off two seasons of 113 OPS+ while Polanco now is coming off two seasons of 115 OPS+.

Jorge Polanco has posted an OPS+ of 115 over the past two seasons while Kolten Wong had posted an OPS+ of 113 in the two seasons before his trade to Seattle.

Distant history trivia: Who was the starting shortstop for the National League in the 2019 All Star Game when Jorge Polanco was the starting shortstop for the American League? The correct answer, who is only seven months older than Polanco, posted 0.6 bWAR and an OPS+ of 62 in 136 games this year for a Twins' division rival.

Could Jorge Polanco be this offseason's Kolten Wong? Last offseason Wong brought similar credentials in his trade to Seattle. At the time Wong, like Polanco today, had played parts of 10 MLB seasons. Wong had posted 23.0 bWAR in 1,102 MLB games while Polanco has posted 17.3 bWAR in 832 MLB games (Polanco's first two MLB seasons were abbreviated). Their per-game bWAR totals are identical carried out to four decimals. Defensive value accounts for much of the bWAR total for Wong, who has won two Gold Gloves. In his two seasons before last December's trade, Wong had posted 6.5 bWAR and an OPS+ of 113 in 250 games. In the last two seasons Polanco has posted 4.8 bWAR and an OPS+ of 115 in 184 games. Again Wong and Polanco come out tied in per-game bWAR at .026. Wong had a 2023 salary of $10 million while Polanco is owed $10.5 million in 2024 with a $750,000 buyout of $12 million club option for 2025. The Wong experiment failed miserably in Seattle. In response the Mariners have since traded for Luis Garcia, Josh Rojas and Ryan Bliss while witnessing the unexpected (and perhaps unsustainable) emergence of Jose Caballero. Seattle is unlikely to add Jorge Polanco to the pile.

Thanks for the feedback. After 14 years in the organization, Jorge Polanco deserves his status as a fan favorite. For a variety of reasons, Polanco would not be a good fit in Seattle.

Does a developing player's high strikeout rate present a red flag on potential MLB success? Roster Resource projects starting roles for Minnesota's Matt Wallner and Seattle's Dominic Canzone, same-age lefthand-hitting outfielders selected out of college in the 2019 draft. This year Wallner impressed in his MLB debut with a wRC+ of 144 and 1.9 fWAR in 76 games while Canzone disappointed with a wRC+ of 79 and a negative 0.5 fWAR n 56 games. One difference, however, was Wallner's strikeout rate of 31.5 percent and Canzone's strikeout rate of 17.6 percent. Despite the contrasting 2023 debuts, Steamer projects Wallner with a 2024 WAR of 1.2 in 110 games and Canzone with a 2024 WAR of 1.1 in 109 games. We fans don't have the data Steamer does and Steamer does not have the same data MLB front offices do. But does the difference in strikeout rates impact the projections?

In a one-to-one comparison with any of Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss, Jorge Polanco might hold an edge despite Polanco’s decline past his 30th birthday.. But the choice for Seattle would be Polanco or the field of Urias, Rojas, Caballero, Moore and Bliss, The Mariners would likely choose the field to distribute the risk, especially at Polanco’s guaranteed $11.25 million (which coincidentally matches the combined projected and guaranteed 2024 salaries of Urias, Rojas and Moore). The Mariners should find better investments than Jorge Polanco.

Luis Urias and Josh Rojas disappointed this year but in 2022 posted bWAR of 3.1 and 3.2, respectively, when Jorge Polanco posted 2.8 bWAR (before dropping to 2.0 bWAR this year). Seattle would likely bet on bounce backs by the younger players.

ZiPS projects the current Seattle roster with 85-90 wins; https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/ This year the Twins advanced to the postseason with 87 wins before losing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagan to free agency, The Mariner’ needs are no greater than the Twins’ needs.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/now-we-know-why-the-seattle-mariners-arent-spending-any-money-this-offseason-theyll-assume-full-control-of-television-rights

On Trades 1 and 2, Seattle is unlikely to add $10 million to its constrained payroll while creating a hole in its starting rotation.

By the same token the Twins “better be right” if they make no moves. Inaction carries risks just as action does.

Seattle would have little interest in Jorge Polanco, who is on the wrong side of age 30 coming off two straight sub-2 fWAR seasons. The Mariners have four second-base candidates — Luis Urias, Josh Rojas. Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore — who in the past two years have posted at least 2 fWAR in a single season. Only Moore is at least 30 years old. Polanco would only muddy up the situation.

FWIW over the past two seasons Erik Swanson ranked 20th among all qualified relievers with 2.6 fWAR. As a point of reference Jhoan Duran ranked 23rd with 2.5 fWAR over that period (although fWAR is an imprecise measure for relievers). In a trade last offseason, three years of Erik Swanson (and a minor league pitcher) landed one year of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez coming off three seasons of a combined 133 OPS+ with 73 home runs. One year of Max Kepler might not be enough to land two seasons of Swanson.

Seattle can ill-afford a third nine-figure contract for a starting pitcher by adding Blake Snell to Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray. However, the Mariners could clear payroll space by trading Castillo (with his consent) for a pre-arb impact bat. The salary savings could be applied toward a replacement starter who might desire the pitching-friendly environment of Seattle and the AL West. The Mariners could wait out the high-end pitching market in hopes that Castillo's trade value increases. Steamer projects Castillo, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery (who were all born the same month) with 2024 WAR of 3.4, 3.3 and 3.2, respectively. The big spenders that miss out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Snell and Montgomery could turn their attention to Castillo. Even with a hometown discount, Snell probably is not a good fit for Seattle. If Castillo is traded, the Mariners instead could turn to second-tier a starter such as Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman or Lucas Giolito.

After trading away Marco Gonzales, the Mariners have a projected starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Emerson Hancock provides the only MLB-ready depth with Robbie Ray expected to be out until July. I agree with your assessment of Castillo's value versus Jordan Montgomery's value. At the Baseball Trade Values site I wrote: Will the surplus trade value of Luis Castillo be adjusted to take into account the contracts of this year's top free agent pitchers? Castillo was born the same month as Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell while being six months younger than Aaron Nola, who landed a seven-year, $172 million contract. This year Castillo ranked 20th in pitching fWAR with 3.4 while Montgomery, Snell and Nola were 13th, 14th and 15th with 4.3, 4.1 and 3.9, respectively. Castillo is guaranteed $91 million over the next four years with a vesting 2028 option that could bring the total to $116 million over five years. Baseball Trade Values has Castillo with $121.6 million over five years. Castiilo reportedly has full no-trade protection through 2025 with a $1 million assignment bonus thereafter. Either way Castillo should have more surplus value if Montgomery and Snell land their projected contracts.

The proposed trade would leave a gaping hole in the Seattle rotation without saving the Mariners money. Why would the Mariners do that? Seattle would have an unwise distribution of financial resources if the Mariners signed hometown lefty Blake Snell, giving the M's three starters with nine-figure contracts. If Luis Castillo would waive his no-trade clause, Seattle could trade Castillo for a pre-arb impact bat to free up payroll to sign a free agent starter such as Snell. The Mariners have better luck attracting free agent pitchers than free agent hitters. The problem is that the Twins and Mariners reportedly each face payroll restrictions. Seattle might consider a trade of Castillo for Brooks Lee but that deal probably does not make financial sense for the Twins. Seattle could turn to Max Kepler if the Mariners fail to land an outfielder with more team control. On the wrong side of age 30 coming off two sub-2 WAR seasons, Jorge Polanco probably does not represent a significant upgrade over Seattle's current infield options. As offered before, compare how Polanco stacks up in fWAR over the past two seasons: Polanco 3.3 fWAR in 184 games Luis Urias: 2.2 fWAR in 171 games Josh Rojas: 3.8 fWAR in 230 games Jose Caballero: 2.2 fWAR in 104 games (2023 debut) Dylan Moore: 2.8 fWAR in 171 games Seattle also has an intriguing second-base prospect in Ryan Bliss, who is projected to make his MLB debut in 2024 after posting these numbers this year split between Double A and Triple A in his age 23 season: 612 PA, .304/.378/.524/.902, 110 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 34 2B, 8 3B, 55 SB, 15 CS, 58 BB, 119 K A college teammate of Edouard Julien at Auburn, Bliss was the starting second baseman for the National League in the 2023 Futures Game before being sent to Seattle later that month in the Paul Sewald trade. Bliss was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League where he slugged a grand slam in the championship play-in game. BTW Bliss and Julien were quite the duo as a freshman and sophomore on the 2019 Auburn Tigers: https://auburntigers.com/sports/baseball/stats/2019 An interesting trade would be Luis Castillo back to Cincinnati for third baseman Noelvi Marte, who headed the package Seattle sent in the July 2022 trade for Castillo. The Reds get a top-of-rotation starter while the Mariners get a promising low-cost third baseman and salary relief to pursue a replacement starter.

Seattle jettisoned Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic largely because of their strikeout rates above 30 percent. https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/seattle-mariners-make-it-clear-they-want-to-add-high-contact-hitters-to-their-lineup-this-offseason Matt Wallner would be an unlikely trade target for the Mariners with his career and projected 2024 strikeout rate of 32.9 percent. The Twins and Mariners probably don't match up in a trade.

Again, any trade value should be assigned appropriate weight: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history Systematically reviewed valuations -- not just those at BTV -- are always welcome.

Baseball Trades Values offers values, not context. The casual fan may offer trade context before grabbing values out of the air. Each value assessment should be given appropriate weight. Neither is gospel.

Some folks are impressed by Bryan Woo's Baseball Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-woo-693433?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

In any trade of Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, Seattle would likely seek quality, not quantity. In other words, the Mariners would want a bat of comparable quality and team control. FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns the package of Polanco, Keasall, Winder and Raya a combined surplus value of $22.7 million and Woo a surplus value of $28.2 million.

Good work. Another comp would be one year of outfielder Tyler O’Neill, whom the Cardinals traded to the Red Sox,

Isaac Paredes would be a better fit for Seattle if the Mariners sign hometown lefty Blake Snell and offer Stetson product Logan Gilbert to Tampa Bay. The Mariners could sweeten the deal to include Randy Arozarena.