Teflon

Thanks for your comment, Willi and for posting the video from the 1975 World Series. (It was good to hear a snippet of Curt Gowdy, too.) There's a really good SABR biography of Luis Tiant at the link below that also describes Tiant's reunion with his parents in 1975 after 14 years of separation: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/2212deaf

http://www.clevescene.com/images/blogimages/2009/04/29/1241034084-tiant.jpg 1968 was a pinnacle of pitching in the Major Leagues. Denny McLain won 31 games for the Tigers and Bob Gibson compiled a legendary 1.12 ERA for the Cardinals while throwing 13 shutouts. Easy to miss when browsing through the performances from that year was a Cleveland pitcher who went 21-9 with a 1.60 ERA, 264 strikeouts and only 152 hits allowed in 258 innings. When seen today, those numbers could easily be mistaken for something from the back of a Sandy Koufax baseball card - but those impressive pitching results didn’t belong to a Brooklyn-born lefty but a Cuban born right-hander named Luis Tiant. When Castro took control of Cuba, Luis was a 19-year old playing in the Mexican League. Being outside the country when the island was seized meant he could continue his career in baseball but also meant that he would not be able to return to his homeland or see his family again for many years. Tiant was signed by the Indians organization and pitched in the minors until 1964 when his 15-1 record for the Portland Beavers of the Pacific Coast League made it clear that the 23-year-old Tiant was ready for the big leagues. (Tommy John and Sudden Sam McDowell were also on that Portland pitching staff and would join Tiant with the Indians that year) Luis pitched in 19 games for Cleveland in the second half of the 1964 season making 16 starts and going 10-4. Over the next three seasons with Cleveland, Tiant was only 35-31 but led the American League in shutouts in 1966 and in strikeouts per 9 in 1967. In 1968, it all came together for Tiant. After a slow start to the season (1-2) Tiant shut out the next four opponents in succession, including a three-hitter against the Twins on May 19th. By the end of June, he was 12-5. The first start for Luis in July would be at home against Jim Merritt and the Twins. Merrit would be tough that day, limiting the Tribe to no runs and only 4 hits over 9 innings. Tiant, however, was masterful that day. He kept the Twins off the scoreboard for 9 innings as well, striking out 16. In the 10th, Rich Reese led off with a double to right for the Twins and Frank Quilici sacrificed him to third, reaching first base safely on a fielder’s choice. Tiant struck out the next batter, catcher Johnny Roseboro. Twins manager Cal Ermer sent in Rich Rollins to pinch hit for shortstop Jackie Hernandez. Tiant struck out Rollins. Jim Merritt, the pitcher, was due up next and Ermer chose not to pinch hit. Merritt had been impossible to solve for Cleveland that day and Ermer wanted to have him for the 10th. Tiant struck out Merritt. Tiant had come up with three strikeouts in the tenth to keep a shutout in order after having a runner at third with no outs. Merrit took the mound for the bottom of the 10th. Indians left fielder Lou Johnson led off with a single and took second on shortstop Cesar Tovar’s miscue on the play. (Tovar had played at third base all day and had just moved to short after Ermer pinch hit Rollins for Hernandez.) The next batter for Cleveland was catcher Joe Azcue who singled in Johnson to win the game. Tiant had a 10-inning shutout with 19 strikeouts. Luis continued to pitch great through July, improving his record to 17-6. August was a different story, Tiant struggled. He lost three starts and pitched in three no-decisions. After pitching a complete game on August 10th, he made 5 consecutive early exits, the last three all being less than 6-inning efforts. On September 9th, Luis Tiant took the mound at Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington looking for his 20th win. He would once again match up against Jim Merritt. Minnesota got on the scoreboard early as thirdbaseman Graig Nettles homered in the bottom of the first. That would be all the scoring for the Twins, however, as Tiant only surrendered four more hits and struck out 16. Cleveland had no problems with Merritt this time around and won handily, 6-1. After picking up his 20th win, Tiant was shelved by the Indians for 12 days before making a two-inning relief appearance against the Angels. Following that, Tiant made one last start on September 25th. It was a gem – a 3-0 blanking of the Yankees in the Bronx although barely 5,000 were on hand to see it. Tiant held the Yankees to a single hit that afternoon (Mickey Mantle) and struck out 11. In looking back on Luis Tiant’s 1968 season, he led the American League in ERA, shutouts, and fewest hits per 9 innings. He was third in strikeouts behind his Portland/Cleveland teammate Sam McDowell and the Tigers’ Denny McLain. (Denny McLain took home both the Cy Young and MVP awards.) When applying newer metrics, Tiant was clearly the best starting pitcher his league, however, leading the AL in Adjusted Pitching Wins, Base-Out Runs Saved, Win Probability Added, and Fielding Independent Pitching.

It's puzzling that a player that's younger than Kinsler and Pedroia is getting worse in defensive metrics. It would be interesting to understand if the Twins have been positioning him any differently. They had an inexperienced 1B beside him in '14 and were making more IF shifts in '15 under Molitor.

Some additional information... The Lahman database has a list of years players attended colleges. Using the same players from aging trends data, here is a breakdown of the years of college for the non-pitching starters by year: There was a trend into the mid 90's of an increasing number of starters being 3-year college players that was indirectly proportional to the falloff in the number of players with no college. (0 years). This has since reverted. Starters are now increasingly likely not to have college experience. So this does support sane09's assertions - but isn't the sole reason as the reverting college trend hasn't surpassed the early 70s level as the aging trend has. Pitchers show the same change - perhaps even more so: And just to finish this train of thought, I decided to look at the aging trend of managers: Since this is a smaller set of data, it tends to be skewed by persons at the extremes like Connie Mack. Still, the overall trend is that the average age of managers is rising.

Agreed. With players back to having normal peaks of performance followed by a normal decline instead of more extended plateaus - front offices realize the return on investment now more quickly diminishes for later contracts. A model to better balance the return based on the declining age trend would be to shorten the amount of years teams control players, allowing them to reach free agency a year, if not two, sooner, so the second contracts are given earlier and expire earlier but contain more true worth.

If an increased emphasis on signing college players (which is what "selecting older players in the amateur draft" means ) was the major factor driving the average age up, then the now declining age trend would mean that the opposite is occurring - and it isn't.

In 1971 the average age of MLB non-DH starting position players was 28.9. This began rising year by year to a peak of 30.1 years of age in 1996. One could assume this was due largely to players’ careers being extended artificially by PEDs. Or one could also possibly assume teams were selecting older players in the amateur draft or perhaps being more deliberate with their prospects.Based on how the trend changed following a Senate hearing, a BALCO bust and a couple of Jose Canseco tell-all books, however, I mostly assume the former. And here’s how the trend changed. The average age of starting MLB position players has dropped by three years, to 26.9. This going-to-youth trend is observed at every position. Pitchers, who have been hovering around the same average age of 29 for the last 35 years, were younger in comparison to hitters through the 70s, 80s, and 90s but are now older in comparison – even though their trend has been moving slightly downward since 2004. (This is the dotted black line - based on the top10 innings-pitched pitchers on each team, each season) A three-year shift in the age of hitters means teams are increasingly built around the earlier contracts of players. A larger number of players at low-end salaries means even more money thrown into the fewer top-end salaries - meaning the pay gap gets bigger and bigger and the already-dwindling MLB middle class gets even smaller. (Basically one Donald Trump on the payroll and 24 fast-food drive-through employees) To me, these changes represent a major philosophical and practical shift in the way baseball teams now make decisions, but no one seems to be talking about it. A three-year shift in the average age of players is huge. Click here to view the article

In 1971, the average age of MLB non-DH starting position players was 28.9. This began rising steadily year-by-year to a peak of 30.1 years of age in 1996. One could assume this was due largely to players’ careers being extended artificially by PEDs – or one could possibly assume teams were selecting older players in the amateur draft or perhaps being more deliberate with their prospects. Based on how the trend changes following a senate hearing, a BALCO bust and a couple of Jose Canseco tell-all books, however, I mostly assume the former. And here’s how the trend changed. The average age of starting MLB position players has dropped by 3 years! (To 26.9.) This reverting-to-youth trend is observed at every position. Pitchers -who have been hovering around the same average age of 29 for the last 35 years - were younger in comparison to hitters through the 70s, 80s, and 90s but are now older in comparison – even though their trend has been moving slightly downward since 2004. (Dotted black line - based on the top-10 innings-pitched pitchers on each team each season) A three-year shift in the age of hitters means teams are increasingly built around the earlier contracts of players. A larger number of players at low-end salaries means even more money thrown into the fewer top-end salaries - meaning the pay gap gets bigger and bigger and the already-dwindling MLB middle class gets even smaller. (Basically one Donald Trump on the payroll and 24 fast-food drive-through employees) To me, these changes represent a major philosophical shift in the way baseball teams now make decisions but no one seems to be talking about it. A three-year shift in the average age of players is huge.

I also think middle infielders should get to yank out second base and spike it every time they turn a double play. That would be cool.

Dealing a player with more value than Arcia both with the bat and the glove (Plouffe) so Arcia can have a roster spot as a right-hand only platooned DH is about as beneficial a roster move as Gardy insisting on carrying three catchers.

Arcia's poor play has actually been fortunate for the Twins this year in that it has enabled ample playing time for Rosario and another chance to look at Hicks - both of whom can also field their positions.

It seems less likely that a breakdown by every Twins starting pitcher has occurred at the same time than it does that an overall pitching approach that worked earlier is no longer effective. Any observations for or against this?

Wouldn't that make Mauer the rich man's Doug Mientkiewicz? I think Doug Mientkiewicz was already the poor man's Doug Mientkiewicz.

Stranger than fiction - other Beth Correia Twins hitting coincidences: "Correia" in Portuguese means "belt." If a Twins player belted one to left field you would say he "Correia'ed" it . (or you could say nobody on the Twins has Correia'ed it lately.) Coincidentally, the Twins once had a player named Portugal. http://thumbs1.ebaystatic.com/d/l225/m/mr0MtMFHXCluk4_IAQz86Pg.jpg Bethe Correia was born on June 22nd, 1983 - a day that current Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky slugged a home run off Dave Steib in Exhibition Stadium to raise his average to over .200 on the season. Len Whitehouse and Ron Washington also played in that game and only four years later in 1987 Brunansky and the Twins would earn a trip to the "White House" which is in "Washington." http://img.beckett.com/news/news-content/uploads/2011/10/front-1.jpg Kevin Correia was once in the Twins lineup and got a hit. (July 12th 2014) Coincidentally, Kevin Correia was also once in the Twins lineup and got a win. Opponents routinely "Correia'ed" Correia's offerings all over the ballpark.

And if we traded him to Texas, he'd be "Walker, Texas Ranger" http://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/chuckpunch1.gif?w=780

Here is Bunker's page at Baseball Reference: Wally Bunker He pitched regularly in the Oriole's rotation through 1966 and part-time in 1967 and 1968 as recurring arm troubles cost him regular starts. The Orioles won the American League pennant in 1966 and played the Dodgers in the World Series, led by a surprisingly young rotation comprised of 20 year-old Jim Palmer (15-10), 23 year-old Dave McNally (13-6), 21 year-old Wally Bunker (10-6) and 28 year-old Steve Barber. (10-5) Bunker started game 3 in the World Series tossing a 6-hit shutout in Baltimore. In the top of the 8th, with the only scoring up to that point being a 5th inning solo home run by the Orioles' Paul Blair, the Dodgers got the tying run in scoring position when pinch hitter Tommy Davis singled for the pitcher Claude Osteen and Maury Wills sacrificed him to second. Bunker got Wes Parker to pop out to shortstop Luis Aparico and Willie Davis to ground out to second baseman Davey Johnson to end the threat in the 8th, however, and then set down the Dodgers' 4-5-6 hitters in the 9th for a complete game 1-0 win. When the Orioles returned to the postseason in 1969, Bunker was not a member of the team. He had been claimed in the expansion draft by the Kansas City Royals and actually threw the first pitch in that team's history. (April 8th, 1969) Wally pitched well -if under the radar - that year going 12-11 for a team that only won 69 games. He led the Royals in starts, innings pitched and even managed to save two games in relief, despite the arm ailments that had limited his starts the two seasons prior. He was not so resilient in 1970, making only 15 starts and suffering through a miserable 2-11 season. He tried to pitch again for the Royals in 1971 but only threw 32 innings before his season (and career) came to a close at the age of 26. In Googling Bunker, I discovered that he and his wife write children's books and are artists in residence at a Nature Resort in South Carolina - which sounds like a satisfying second career after baseball.

http://www.vintagecardprices.com/pics/1830/166907.jpg After making his debut as an 18 year-old for the Baltimore Orioles in the final game of 1963, right-handed pitcher Wally Bunker earned a spot in the Orioles starting rotation in May of 1964 and pitched a 1-hitter in his first start of the season. The teenager from San Bruno, California surrendered no earned runs in his next start and a single run in the next (all complete games) eventually extending his winning streak to six consecutive starts before losing to Camilo Pasqual and the Twins on June 7th. Blessed with outstanding run support on the season, (The O’s scored 5.11 per game in Bunker’s starts, 3.99 in all others), Bunker’s tidy 2.69 ERA translated to 19 wins and only 6 losses in 29 starts, pacing the American League in win percentage. While not an overpowering thrower, (4.0 K’s per 9) Bunker still limited opponents to only 161 hits over 214 innings in 1964, translating to a .207 batting average against. Unfortunately for Bunker, the Twins' Tony Oliva was also a rookie in 1964 and Wally finished a distant second in Rookie of the Year voting to Oliva, the American League batting champion that year. Bunker also received votes in the MVP balloting, finishing 12th behind teammate Brooks Robinson. Bunker became (and remains) the youngest player to ever receive MVP votes.

The Twins advanced metrics team likes that Pelfrey nearly always has a low earned runs total per hour pitched.

It's hard to fathom Bill James - a man who usually applies logical rigor to his suppositions - making casual steroid aspersions regarding Gaetti and Puckett. What's even more surprising is that James singled out a year that Gaetti followed a 5-HR season with 20 HRs as suspicious when anyone looking at the back of a bubblegum card could see that Gaetti had actually hit 20+ HRs each of his first two seasons before the sudden drop. Gaetti's lack of homeruns in 1984 was actually the aberration - which received ink in the local papers that year. Oh but Gaetti had acne and was balding. Ever take a close look at your hometown Royals, Bill? Doesn't Steve "Bye-Bye" Balboni's complexion or hairline seem a bit suspicious, too? Or how about the year George Brett amazingly went from 7 homeruns in 645 at-bats to 22 homeruns in 80 fewer at-bats the next? http://www.tradingcarddb.com/Images/Cards/Baseball/115/115-362Fr.jpg Also - if this wasn't a steroid rage, what was it?

It's just good marketing. The St. Paul Saints are selling one that's just all the Fireworks Friday night games at CHS Field. Coolest ticket package ever.

MacPhail was less risk-averse than his successors - much to his credit. I cite a couple of examples. One was the contract he gave Morris to sign in 1991. $3 million the first year and then player-controlled options the next two. (Who does that?) A good season and Morris likely walks away. A bad season - like the 18-loss season he just had in 1990 - and you're stuck for two more. You better hope hope a.) you get that one good year and b.) if you do, you don't squander it. The second was the next year, 1992. To replace Morris, MacPhail makes a deal for Pirates 20-game winner John Smiley who was only on a 1-year contract with Pittsburgh. It cost the Twins prospects Midre Cummings and Denny Neagle. Smiley goes 16-9 in that one year, the Twins win 90 but lose the division by 6 games. Smiley exits for Cincinnati and Neagle goes on to have a solid career for the Pirates and Braves and to make two all-star teams. In hindsight, probably not a deal you'd make again - but at the time the very deal you wanted him to make, A couple other MacPhail moves I also want to highlight that weren't mentioned are finding Brian Harper - who was a significant offensive upgrade at catcher over Laudner, Butera, Salas, Nieto et al, and the selection of the underrated Shane Mack in the Rule 5 draft.

Any new pitching coach the Twins hire can immediately improve the pitching staff by convincing Ryan and Molitor that outfield defense is indeed important. Put actual "defenders" out there with more speed than Josh WIllingham, more experience than Danny Santana, better instincts than Chris Parmelee and more common sense than Oswaldo Arcia and watch how much the ERA improves.

While I understand where your sentiments and bold-font indignation come from, OaklandFan, but both the ballpark assertion and rookie pitcher assertion are false The new ballparks of the 90s would have needed to appear as a group in 1996 and then disappear again in 1997 to have contributed to a one season phenomenon. The affect of more homer-conducive ballparks would be to cause an upward trend in Steinbach's homerun totals from their opening onward and not an isolated one year spike. There is no evidence, however, of even an upward trend from the new ballparks in Steinbach's stats after looking at his road homeruns by ballpark before 1996, in 1996, and then after. Steinbach's 1996 homeruns on the road in ballparks opened in 1989 or later were Texas-3, Chicago-3, Cleveland-2, Baltimore-1,and Toronto-1. (10 total) His road homeruns in stadiums open prior to 1989 were California-3, Detroit-3, Seattle-2, Boston-1. (9 total.) The Toronto Skydome - now Rogers Centre - opened in 1989. Steinbach hit 2 homeruns there in the 7 seasons prior to 1996, 1 there in 1996, and then none the final three years of his career. He hit 1 at the previous Toronto ballpark in three seasons. New Comiskey Park - now US Cellular Field - opened in 1991.Steinbach hit 2 homeruns there in the 5 seasons prior to 1996, 3 there in 1996, and then none the final three years of his career. He hit none in the previous White Sox ballpark in three seasons. Camden Yards opened in 1992. Steinbach hit 2 homeruns there in the four seasons prior to 1996, 1 there in 1996, and then none for the final three years of his career. The Ballpark in Arlington - now Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington, opened in 1994. Steinbach hit one homerun there in the two years prior to 1996, three there in 1996, and then none for the final three years of his career. He hit 7 at the previous ballpark in Texas over 7 seasons. Jacobs Field - now Progressive Field, also opened in 1994. Steinbach hit 1 homerun there in the the two years prior to 1996, 2 there in 1996, and then two over the final three years of his career. He had hit 5 at the previous ballpark in Cleveland in 7 seasons. I thought there might be something to your rookie pitcher assertion but that turns out a false assertion, as well. The pitcher Steinbach particularly feasted on in 1996 was Kevin Tapani, 32, who was pitching for the White Sox that year. Steinbach hit three homeruns off him in 10 plate appearances after only hitting 1 off him in 24 total plate appearances prior. He also hit 2 in 7 at bats off Darren Oliver in 1996, who was in his third year with the Rangers, (No other homeruns against Oliver in other seasons.) 2 off Mike Christopher who was 32 in his fifth MLB season, 2 off Rocky Coppinger, who was a rookie that year, 2 off 29 year-old vet Juan Guzman in 10 at-bats in 1996 although none in the other 30 at-bats versus Guzman in his career. The other pitchers who each surrendered a single home run to Steinbach in 1996 were Wilson Alvarez 7th season, Mark Brandenburg rookie, Norm Charlton 10th , Cal Eldred 6th, Alex Fernandez 7th,Jason Grimsley 7th, Erik Hanson 9th,Sterling Hitchcock 5th, Greg Keagle rookie, Mark Langston 15th, Dennis Martinez 21st, Jack McDowell 9th, Jaimie Moyer 11th, Charles Nagy 7th, Gregg Olson 9th, Paul Quantrill 5th, Brad Radke 2nd, Paul Shuey 3rd, Dennis Springer rookie, Mike Stanton 8th season, Matt Wagner rookie, Bob Wells 3rd, David Wells 10th, and Shad Williams rookie. The final tally for 1996 for Steinbach is 28 home runs off veterans (80%) and 7 off rookies.

I was watching the excellent ESPN 30-for-30 feature on the Earthquake Series of 1989 and in recalling various players on that Oakland A’s team, was again struck by how far off the charts Terry Steinbach’s 1996 was from any other season in his career at the advanced-for-baseball age of 34. Steinbach slugged 35 homeruns that season after never hitting more than 16 before or after. His 34 homeruns as a catcher (the other was as a pinch hitter) was the highest total for a catcher at that time in the American League. It was surpassed by Ivan Rodriguez (35) in 1999 which is the current record. In all of baseball history, only two other players over age 30 put up career high homeruns exceeding 30 in a season which more than doubled any other season homerun total in their careers. Brady Anderson – hit 50 homeruns in 1996 at age 32. The next highest HR total for Brady in a season was 24. George Crowe – hit 31 homeruns in 1957 at age 36. The next highest HR total for George in a season was 15. Crowe hit his 31 homeruns in the only season he ever topped 400 at-bats so is easily explainable. Brady Anderson and Steinbach, not so. While steroid rumors have always surrounded Anderson’s aberrant 1996, Steinbach’s similarly aberrant 1996 has remained unquestioned as far as I can tell from Google searches despite the Oakland clubhouse of 1996 also being the home to McGwire, Canseco and Giambi. So how exactly does a 34 year-old catcher who never hit more than 16 homeruns before or since become the all-time single season league leader in homeruns at his position? In looking for explanations, I thought of the following: Renovation to the Oakland Coliseum In 1995-1996 the Oakland Coliseum was renovated to enclose the previously open outfield with a massive steep double-decked grandstand for Raiders football. (”Mt. Davis”) Prior to that, the stadium had a symmetrical curved outfield fence with dimension of 330 down the lines, 375 to the alleys, and 400 to center field. With the construction, the configuration of the outfield changed to a peaked diamond shape that kept the same foul line and center field dimensions but was constrained to shorter dimensions in the alleys. A’s fans have also written that there was previously a breeze that cooled the ballpark on hot day games that disappeared once Mount Davis was erected. This suggests that batters no longer had to deal with wind blowing in. Shorter power alleys and more favorable wind conditions could have helped Steinbach’s power numbers, right? Steinbach hit a home run every 38 at-bats at home in 1994, every 21 at-bats in 1995, and every 16 at-bats in 1996, while the rest of the A’s hit homers every 36 at-bats in 1994, every 30 at-bats in 1995, and every 24 at-bats in 1996 – so the park (or the team) was trending upward. Unfortunately for the ballpark theory Steinbach’s rates on the road were a homer every 36 at-bats in 1994, every 36 in 1995, and every 13 at-bats in 1996, meaning his homerun rate increased 32% at home in '96 but increased 164% on the road! Not the ballpark. The Strike of 1994-1995 Steinbach lost at-bats that would have affected his overall homerun totals in 1994 and 1995. The 1994 season was wiped out after 117 games and the 1995 season started late and was limited to 145 games. Perhaps his aberrant 1996 power wouldn’t be as glaring in comparison if his two previous seasons had been completed. Projecting his production in those seasons to 1996 at-bat levels produces only 14 homeruns in 1994 (compared to 11 actual) and 19 instead of 15 in 1995. (For some reason the jump from 19 to 35 seems less staggering even though it’s still semi-staggering – especially given Steinbach’s age. Joe Mauer had his aberrant HR season at age 26, by the way.) Sold his Soul? With the lack of a better explanation, it’s possible Steinbach negotiated some kind of deal with Lucifer in exchange for his 1996 season. How else could you explain how following the greatest season of his career and one of the top seasons ever for an American League catcher, he inexplicably took two-thirds of his previous salary to join a moribund team Twins team that lost 90 games every season for the rest of his career.