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Everything posted by DocBauer
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What Did Michael Tonkin Ever Do to You?
DocBauer replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Basically 80 IP each of the last two seasons, with a K per 9, and a.littl3 under 3-1 K/BB ratio. He was actually a little better in 2024 than 2023 due to lowering his HR totals. And he only costs a projected $1.5-1.8M to keep. I don't see why you wouldn't bring him back. And if we have to worry about $1.5-ish M ruing any plans, we're in big trouble. -
Twins Daily 2025 Top Prospects: #8 Kaelen Culpepper, SS
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
What i remember initially about him was a potential selection with the comp pick and questions about staying at SS. And would he have enough bat for 3B? He felt like a tweener to me. As the draft got closer, I began to read more reports that he had legitimate SS potential. Post draft...and i have to watch him play a lick...I've heard and read reports from those that watched him that he's definitely a true SS, as long as he doesn't outgrow the position, always a possibility. Not a GG caliber SS, but potentially a solid one. His bat and approach appear solid based on college production, scouting reports, and a generally solid debut. While a powerful, line drive swing is great for doubles, if he can adjust his swing for a little more lift, I could see some increase in power potential. He's got a good frame, and I'd hate to see him bulk up a lot and lose the SS ability. If he really does have the potential to stick at SS, then I'd like to see them concentrate a little more on elevating the ball for pop/power vs big muscle increase and lose speed and flexibility. Of course, if he really has potential 20HR power and GG ability at 3B, that's pretty hard to argue with, right? Again, I thought he might be a tweeter initially. And he wasn't my target at 21 this draft as I thought there were some higher upside players available. But as he's debuted and I've read and heard more, I think they got a pretty intriguing young player to work with that might fit at 3 different spots. I'm getting a little more excited about him than when he was initially a consideration. No question he's at CR to begin 2025. But with a sound approach at the plate, I could see him at AA before the season is done. I can also see a scenario where one of he, Keaschall, or Lee is moved as part of a deal a young catcher from someone else. -
Raya yes. Olivar? He's one of the best bat to ball hitters in the system. But he doesn't have power for LF and he can't throw from behind the plate, and he just arrived at AA and was pretty so-so there. Do the Twins actually believe h3 can be solid behind the plate? Do they think he's got a good enough arm and his poor throwing % can be improved with better technique? Then you protect him. Otherwise, I don't see anyone stashing him. I like Rosario quite a bit. He's rough around the edges, K's too much, but is really young and keeps improving while being promoted somewhat aggressively, and has a big arm and big power potential. Is someone really going to stash him on their bench for all of 2025? I probably don't protect him, but can see reasons to. I'd protect Jaylin Nowlin as well. He's inconsistent but has solid stuff and good K numbers that will probably play up on the pen, which is where I think he's going to end up. Were I the Dirty Sox or Oakland, etc, I'd probably grab him and stash him.
- 44 replies
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- marco raya
- ricardo olivar
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I don't dislike keeping him. And he's not expensive. But with the payroll so tight, and Festa seemingly ready, it just makes sense to move him and get the $7.5M to play with for some additions to the roster. No AK, no Vazquez, and Paddack moved and the Twins have around $19M to work with and still keeping payroll at $135M. Nothing against Paddack.
- 30 replies
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- royce lewis
- willi castro
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Not bad Lou. But I'm not quite with you. Forgetting any extension signings and just looking at the 2025 roster, I'm using the "as is" payroll as of a couple weeks ago with everyone back. That was almost dead on $135M with the promise of no cuts, but no increase. So that's my baseline. #1] KEYSTONE to all of this. The FO has little choice but to make some kind of move for today and tomorrow. They make a move for a young, talented, and controlled catcher to join Jeffers. I'm going to suggest Rushing from the Dodgers, or Teel from the Red Sox, but there's a couple other options out there. Since Rushing bats LH, and is a top 100 prospect, and recently mentioned in a TD OP, let's just say the target is HIM. The Dodgers do things differently than many teams. They're flush with catchers right now, and have a keen eye for talent and development and no real glaring weaknesses. And they have $ to spend to address and weaknesses. So they're looking for future talent. The Twins offer up a 2 or 3 prospect package that includes an arm of Raya/Lewis/Culpepper, and INF of Lee/Keaschall/Culpepper and an OF of Rosario/J Rodriguez/Mercedes. Mix and match, that's a combination of 2 or 3 top 10-20-30 prospects that HURT the Twins, but doesn't desimate the system. #2] The Twins then move Vazquez for a lower level prospect with some promise to shed his contract. Some believe they can move his whole deal. Some don't. As I stated in another thread, a Cubs writer brought up the idea of trading for him since their current catchers are poor defensively, awful offensively, and Vazquez would at least bring defensive value, even if he didn't improve the offense much. Projected savings, $10M saved, potentially. #3] Move Paddack to someone who needs some rotation depth and believes there's still some upside with him. (There is). And who recognizes that $7.5M is about market value for a decent SP with some upside, especially since it's only a 1yr deal. Projected savings, $7.5M saved, potentially. #4] As of TODAY, I'm keeping both Tonkin and Topa as potentially solid middle inning relievers that will only cost a little over $3M vs the approximate $1.5M of rookies or cheap FA fliers on minimum deals. There's too much veteran ability and solid performance upside to just not spend the extra $1-2M to not keep them. #5] In theory, at least, the Twins now have $17.5M free with Vazquez and Paddack gone. With Kiriloff's projected salary coming off the original $135M, that gives them about $19M to spend. It could be a couple $M less if they are forced to toss in some $ to make the trades happen, but there you go. #6] You have Bell signing on for $7M. I hope you're right. But even though I expect a shrinkage of the FA market this offseason due to the flux of lost revenue and future losses except for the TOP FA, I still see Bell as coming in at $12-13M per on a 2yr deal. Maybe a Cruz like deal of $14-$12 2yr deal. Less defense than Santana, probably more offense, and Miranda gets to adapt to 1B without being the #1 guy right away. Potentially, same with Julien. #7] There's still enough $ to sign a FA LHRP with some kind of track record for the pen, maybe on a rebound. They aren't going to have the $ to spend on a Tanner Scott, and probably never will. But there was a fairly recent post on TD that I can't find right now that offered some inexpensive options that were older, coming off poor seasons but were good previously, or coming off injury. (My bad i can't name names right now). Maybe there's a former SP who needs to reclamate his career. Regardless of my memory, there's still room to add a LH arm to the pen for a couple $2-3M if the FO is smart enough to pick the Thielbar replacement, even on a 1yr deal. #8] IF there's enough $ left over, doubtful in my numbers, come February, there might be a solid RH OF sitting there with no deal you might be able to sign to compete with Helman and Martin for a 4th-5th OF spots. #9] This is where depth comes in to being. I'm telling Keirsey, Helman, and Martin THIS IS YOUR TIME. You don't have to try to do too much, just do your best and try to be part of the bench and be part of the team. And I'm bringing in Eeles and probably McCusker to ST to see in person if there's SOMETHING to believe in for later in the season. A little more in depth from what you posted Lou. But we agree on many ideas.
- 30 replies
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- royce lewis
- willi castro
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Granted! I don't want to trade at all from the current roster of arms. I wouldn't be surprised if Festa moved past SWR next season as the 4th starter. His stuff is just too good, especially if you factor in natural development and experience. If his new dedication to his curve can be even mediocre, he gives at least a different look to batters. But I do hope/wonder with the advancement SWR showed last season if he might raise his game another notch? I've read for a while now how STUFF + rates his secondary pitches. With the greater velocity he found in 2024, might he take that knowledge/experienced and learn to put guys away a little quicker? I'm not expecting greatness out of the kid. But he was still a rookie.
- 26 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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I like this idea much more than that barrage of thoughts on trading Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Duran, etc. But wouldn't it make the most sense to explore a package of 2-3 top 20-30 prospects to the Dodgers for rushing? Or the Red Sox for Teel? With a young, minimum wage catcher on hand to team with Jeffers, you help solidify the present as well as the future. And now you can move Vazquez to a team really needing/wanting that veteran catcher. I just read an interesting article by a Cubs writer suggesting a lower level prospect to the Twins for Vazquez and picking up all or most of his salary. His opinion: he's much better defensively than what they had last season, and no worse offensively, and potentially better. If Vazquez and Paddack can be moved for a low level flier prospect and lose their contracts, the Twins suddenly have a little over $17M to work with on the market. With Kirilloff retiring, his projected salary is also gone. That gives the Twins about $19M to work with. Potentially! Ownership says no cuts, but no increases either. But if no cuts includes the projected $135M the Twins would be looking at, then they'd have about $19M to play with. Sign a decent, solid RH OF? Sign a solid, experienced LHRP? How about a 1B like Bell? I'd go for the best young catcher I like and can get, move Paddack and Vazquez, and then add a 1B and LHRP. If I've got a couple $M left over, find a RH bat OF sitting there in January needing work.
- 26 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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The K's per 9 and HITS per 9 are both good. The BB in 2024 definitely hurt him some, going from 2.9 to 4.6 last season. How much of that was misfiring and how much was shaking off some rust? Virtually every number from BB to AVG/OB/SLG, etc were better his last 90 days of 2024, meaning he was getting in a groove. So maybe the control isn't really that big of an issue after all? Of course, you have to maintain that as well. It does seem to me getting his slider in to the plus category makes the biggest difference in regard to his future. Solid FB, a crazy and surprisingly hard knuckleball with a good slider could make him a middle starter.
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Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Bailey Ober
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I appreciate various articles about potential trades. It makes sense to speculate. We've been surprised before. I stated before the season began that I didn't think we'd seen the best of Ober yet. With the exception of about 2 bad games, he was as good, or better, than he was in 2023. What's wrong with the Twins having the best 1-3 they've had in years and keeping them? Festa looks like he could be the real deal. SWR is, at the least, a solid looking starter who still offers up some upside. Moving on from either Ober, or Ryan, both controlled, not expensive, and under 30yo just doesn't make sense any way you slice it. For that matter, Lopez is the leader of the stuff and his $21M is not an overpay for a a strong #2 who has often thrown like a #1 since he came to the Twins. As good as the young arms look right now, most are a couple months away from being ready for full time ML duty, barring a rash of injuries. And who do you sign to for a couple $M to fill a hole created even close to adequately? Again, I understand the principles of "consider this", but I don't agree. KEEP the good staff you have in place and try to be creative in a different way to add to the edges that need help. -
While Buxton might not be quite as elite in CF as he was a couple years ago, I thought he was just fine last season, and I watched a ton of games. Two things give me some optimism for Buck going in to 2025: A] He's finally "slowed down" a bit and understands that his value is being in the lineup and not crashing in to walls or diving for almost impossible plays as much as he did in his youth. B] Unless there's something going on we don't know about, his plica removal surgery really seemed to get his knee "right". (Don't understand why that wasn't done initially). His issue last year was a reoccurrence of a previous hip issue, caused by his knee injuries previously. Perhaps the hip issues will abate now that he's feeling, running, and moving better? Absolutely not saying that's going to happen, but I have some hope/belief that he might avoid some of that previous issue and play at least a few more games in 2025. He will probably always need to be monitored and rested here and there, of course. But if his body cooperates just a little bit more the next couple of years, what a difference he could make at 120 games. I'm going to cross my fingers!
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I think Topa is kept, and if his knee is sound...it was too end the year and he's got all offseason to further rest it...he's potentially a really solid middle man who might toss a couple innings at times, as he did for Seattle. Considering how badly the trade turned out overall for both sides, that's a bit of a win for the Twins. Gonzalez makes the trade a steal if he can just learn to make GOOD contact by being more disciplined and not trying to hit EVERYTHING. Long way to go, but if he can do that, again IMO, he's sort of a cross between Eddie Rosario and Miranda. But he's a wait and see what he does healthy in 2025. I think Polanco's knees are pretty shot at this point. And he's had numerous ankle injuries previously as well. IF he was signed...and I'm not advocating that...he'd be a 1B/DH/PH option, probably on a MILB deal.
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Absolutely. 35-40 appearances at 2 IP per would get him there. The problem there is, IMO, they aren't STARTERS IP. I want him, more or less, on the Raya plan. I want him to prepare as a stater prepares. And I want him to go through the lineup twice. He begins around 50 pitches, then 60, and hopefully around 70 come mid season. That should also get him around 90, but following a starters routine and seeing the lineups he faces twice. Moving him to the pen later on requires adjustments as well. But that's an easier adjustment to make. Yes?
- 31 replies
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- matt canterino
- connor prielipp
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While the Twins haven't actually said anything yet, I think Varland has pretty much made the move to the pen ar this time. It's the right thing for the Twins, and for his career. He's got the stuff to blow batters away. He's got the ability to throw 2 innings at times. And while he might have a tendency to leave the ball over the plate too often on a bad day, I'd rather that bad day be 1 IP and 1 HR, and not 4 IP and 3HR. Medium leverage spot, probably, to be begin with until he hopefully/probably earns a set-up role. Canterino's shoulder needed therapy and rehab I guess, and not a procedure. That's a good thing. And he's well over a year removed from his TJ. If there's any chance his body finally stays healthy, he should absolutely be in the pen. Fewer pitches more often just might work better for him. Can you imagine 50-60 IP from him? Sorry, but at 24yo in 2025, I just can't give up on Prielipp's potential in the rotation yet. Good chance he gets a couple innings at extended ST to get "warmed up" and then go to AA. From there it's a gradual buildup of innings per start/number of pitches per start with the goal of getting him to 90, maybe 100 if everything goes really well. If he can get to 90IP this season he can target 120-130 in 2026 at age 25. That means, as a 26yo in 2027 he's looking at something like 150-170 IP. He can always be moved to the pen at any time. But to wait until 2026 to try and start building up his arm? I don't see it. Keep him in the rotation for now. Additionally, I believe Headrick should be in the pen, if he isn't already. He's got some solid velocity, experience facing RH batters as a starter, is probably behind 3-4 starters at AAA right now, and as a LHRP, he's got a great opportunity in the Twins pen. I'd also think hard about moving Nowlin to the pen in 2025, at least part time. He's been inconsistent game to game in his career, but he's flashed some really good stuff and generally high K numbers. But he's probably behind Matthews and Morris for sure, and maybe Lewis and Raya as well. He could piggyback games to stay somewhat stretched out, get in multiple innings to keep working on his stuff, and might be a Twin the second half of next year if he shows a little more control. And again, there's need and opportunity for a solid LH in the pen, or two.
- 31 replies
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- matt canterino
- connor prielipp
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Not sure he's was worthy of being a top 100 a year ago with average speed and defense and questionable approach, (swings at everything), but he sure did have a good 2023. I can't decide if he's a RH version of Eddie Rosario, only with fewer K's and more overall contact, or if he's an OF version of Miranda. Either way, good contact on hittable balls is excellent. And while not a large kid, he's already shown he's got some power. But like we've seen from Miranda when he's been hurt, weakly tapping out us really bad contact. I see a future for him if his back is sound and he can look more like his 2019 self. But I also see other guys in the system that I think have higher ceilings. I don't think I'd have him at 10, but I also wouldn't want to downgrade him much considering youth and an injured plagued season in 2024.
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HILL: The draft had a bunch of really interesting HS arms this year and it was great to see the Twins dive in. HS arms are the most volatile prospects you can have, but might have the biggest payoff if you get it right. Hill has a lanky frame, but there's enough OF IT to hope you can carry another 25lbs or so of good man muscle as he matures. That keeps his velocity in the high 90's, even if he doesn't add, which he probably will. With the reports he's already got a good feel for his secondary offerings, he's awfully exciting. I expect him to be used much like Soto this season, despite being different physical types. DeBARGE: I don't have a problem with this spot, not sure a couple spots lower really makes a difference. Coming off a full college season, moving to wood bats, begining in the hard to hit FSL, I'm not worried about his disappointing debut. Power isn't all about size. It's also about good contact and a quick swing. IDK if he's really got the kind of power he showed his last college season or not, but he doesn't need that kind of pop to be a good prospect if the rest of what we hear about him is accurate: disciple, solid eye, contact, bat to ball ability, athletic, fast, good hands, decent arm. But he does need to prove he really CAN hit in 2025 in order to stay ranked this high. ROSARIO: I'm also a little higher on Rosario than some, but I might have him a couple spots lower. But why quibble? He's shown solid year to year progress his first 3 years and a good AFL after last offseason. He was only 20yo while winning league MVP in 2023 and the HR title in the AFL. He wasn't bad at Wichita as a 21yo this season, just not great. If he was healthy all year I wonder if others would like him more? I like the good arm. I've never heard he's slow. So I have some faith his defense can be worked on and developed. He's still young and made steady progress up to this point. Not sure he's a full time starter or not at this point. PRIELIPP: At 24yo I still don't see him being moved to the pen yet. The potential of him as a SP is too great to give up on yet. He's going to be on an IP limit this season and slowly stretched out, but I wouldn't move him to the pen yet, no matter how tempting. If scouts, coaches, and the training staff all believe he's best off throwing more often but fewer innings, OK, move him and let's get him up ASAP. I just don't want to give up on him in the rotation too soon. CULPEPPER: Normally, when you hear a pitcher has that many offerings, you have to wonder how many are really good, and does he drop some eventually. But it kind of sounds like he throws all of them reasonably well. Of all the 2022 pitchers drafted, he was one of the youngest, with some of the least amount of IP. So he's not close to a finished product yet and already flashing at AA, just turned 23yo, and only going in to his #3 season. I will be disappointed if he isn't in AAA before next season is over.
- 25 replies
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- dasan hill
- kyle debarge
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Rodriguez is hard to figure. He's got immense potential that's almost scary good. But there's enough questions about contact to scare you some. He wa so good last season you could see him force his way on to the roster quickly if he's 100%. But he's also missed enough time to think he won't be ready until mid year. But I agree he could be a surprise difference maker in 2025. I've become a big fan of Keaschall. I can see him up mid season as well, just needing some AAA time to get comfortable again after missing the end to 2024 and make sure his elbow is 100%. Partially if his arm strength hasn't been sapped, I'd see him up as a utility player initially. And he might be a future Castro replacement, but possibly even a better bat. I don't see Raya as help this year. They got him through the season healthy, got him to 90IP, and got him to AAA. I think the gloves start to come off in 2025, but he's behind both Matthews and Morris at this point, and very possibly behind Lewis as well. His ETA is 2026 IMO. I can see a reality where Prielipp is up late in the year to help the pen. But 24yo in 2025 at AA...most likely...is not old enough to give up on an arm like his in the rotation. No way. And his innings are going to be limited so I'm doubting he gets extra work late in the year with the Twins. If this is FINALLY the year Canterino is healthy...elbow is fixed and he's not coming off any other procedures...I believe he'll be a reliever going forward and has a better chance than Prielipp of helping the Twins this year.
- 25 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- luke keaschall
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It's not just about Rosario being ready for AAA. (He might be despite missing about half of 2024). It's also about playing time. Right now, Martin, McCusker and Rodriguez all figure in to the daily lineup at St Paul, though Martin might continue to play some 2B as well. Do the Twins keep Keirsey and/or Helman? You want to make sure the roster is balanced so everyone can play. Don't want a good looking prospect to sit. But the Twins have been very aggressive with Rosario: A+ at 20yo, AA at 21yo. Because of that, I can see a good chance he's at AAA to begin the season.
- 10 replies
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- ben ross
- kalai rosario
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The pitchers this week? Woof! But a great week from Rosario! And an even better one from Ross! It's only one week against AA and A+ pitching, but Ross really needed this. He and Schobel both looked like "do everything solid" offensive players who profiled to valuable SUPER UTILITY players and possible heir to Castro's role with the team. Then they nosedived in 2024. Again, just a single week, but it's got to be encouraging for Ross.
- 10 replies
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- ben ross
- kalai rosario
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It's an interesting idea. It really is. And I'm not necessarily against it. But I do see a handful of issues, some of which have already been stated. 1] If someone like the Mets need a 1B, they won't ask Tampa to eat $. That means the market has to be low for Diaz, or the payment high. 2] Paddack, at a minimum, has to be moved in order to make room for Diaz from a payroll perspective. 3] The Twins won't want to give up too much in prospect capital for what could point to only 1 year. So we're back to point #1 again. 4] Despite a Gold Glove and a solid year at the plate, it doesn't matter if Santana WANTS to play another 3 or 4 years. He's going to be 39 next year. I've only ever seen a handful of special bats still hit the ball well at 39 and 40. I don't see a long term deal or big $ foe him. Not saying he should be a Twins priority, just saying I don't think he's gone as a Twins option. With Kiriloff's projected number off the books and if they could move all of Paddack's deal...(would the Rays be interested as part of the proposal?)...that's around $9M to work with. That's getting close to getting something done from a financial perspective. I'd love to find the market slow and just sign Josh Bell or Goldschmidt for 1yr, or a 1 and 1 similar to Cruz a few years ago and just keep our prospects. But this idea for Diaz is a sound one. I could be on board for this.
- 19 replies
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- yandy díaz
- jose miranda
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On the one hand, while I'm sure the Pohlad's would be grateful for any extra revenue generated for 2025, I believe they are determined to sell the team if possible. So I'm not sure if they even care if Falvey is good at his new responsibilities or not. But why hire someone else for what might be a lame duck position? On the other hand, Falvey doesn't actually to have RUN anything on this side of things. The title tells me that he's now in charge of placing people there of HIS choice to run those areas. New VP/GM of marketing? Whoever Falvey wants to put in charge of it. I agree that anything run poorly can affect 2026. But until I hear/read some more, I'm under the impression Falvey gets to have more control over the entire franchise's operation, on the field and off. But again, I think that likely means placing his own hand picked people in charge.
- 86 replies
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- dave st peter
- jeremy zoll
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Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #20-#16
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
OLIVAR: I wish I could be a little more excited about him. I'm intrigued, but not excited. Can he actually play catcher and call a good game? He sure can't throw. And I don't think there's enough power for LF or DH, not that power is everything. If you talk just HIT ability, bat to ball, good contact and good eye, he's one of the best hitting prospects in the system. BELTRE: Agreed it's really hard to quantify such young players in a league of such young players. Still, when you're 17yo playing against other 16-19yo's and do that well in so many categories, it sure makes him look exciting. DeANDRADE: To me the biggest question is the glove. He'll still be 20yo at the begining of 2025 at what will probably be A+ to begin the season. Just a shame he missed so much time this year. Despite his youth, he's shown flashes of pop, speed, OB and hit ability. He doesn't have to be a GG at SS, just good. I think the bat looks like it will play. SCHOBEL: I wouldn't have him in the top 20 at this point, but the Twins know him better than we do. He's got some speed and enough defense to be a viable SUPER UTILITY player in the future. But his bat hit the AA wall HARD upon arrival. He figures AA out in 2025, he's worth this spot. If not, he probably drops out if the top 30. MERCEDES: I think he's one of the most exciting prospects in the system and looks like he might build on the tremendous promise he showed in the DSL when signed. Looks like an actual 5 tool talent. If the Twins look to add other pieces to the 2025 roster via prospect trades, I can see a lot of teams asking about him.- 24 replies
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- ricardo olivar
- eduardo beltre
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Eeles is probably the best story here. The fact he performed so well, for the entire season, at 3 levels, and shows not only a good eye but the valuable bat to ball skill seems to indicate he might be a legitimate prospect. I can understand him being outside the top 20 at this time though. Were I in charge. I'd bring him to ST as a non roster invite to get a better look at him. Wouldn't it be something if McCusker could make enough contact to be a real asset? I want to see a little more sustained production at AAA, and at least a little better contact before I'm willing to have real hope. ML pitchers are just so good I can see him being exploited with his strike zone and fairly high K rate. But he absolutely should be on this list. I don't know what else there is to say about Keirsey many of us haven't said before already. He was a #4 pick by this very FO, struggled a little early, then missed 2020, and has been putting up very good numbers each of the past 3 years. But for unknown and frustrating reasons, he's been constantly passed over for the Margot's of the world. Why? Because he's a LH batter? That's a good thing! Unless he's just bad at the plate, I believe he's the #2 CF in 2025, plays some corner OF to rest guys or be a late defensive sub, and a PR. I wasn't crazy about Amick as a possible #1 selection in the last draft, but like his potential where he was picked. I've seen very little of his play at 3B, but I've read he's worked hard to be decent there. I can't help but think his road to MLB might be at 1B, where the Twins really have no-one at this point in the system. While he's known as a free swinger, the fact that he's still hit for a good AVG and has maintained a pretty good OB% tells me the ability is there to reign in that nature some. He does that, with his power, he could be a hot prospect in no time. MLB in 2026? I don't know that I believe in Canterino any longer, but I do have some remaining hope. I had thought he had a small shoulder procedure this past season, so glad to hear it wasn't that serious. And definitely a positive his elbow was OK following TJ. At this stage and age, and so many injuries and setbacks...not to mention system depth...I think it's obvious he needs a move to the pen permanently. With his elbow fixed and his shoulder rested/rehabbed, is there any chance his body FINALLY cooperates? He could be really nice depth later in the season. Doncon had a nice season coming over from the Dodgers. Something good might still come out of that trade. Betting J Rodriguez has a similar 2nd stateside season similar to Mercedes, who really took off in 2024.
- 13 replies
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- payton eeles
- carson mccusker
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No new blood, but new roles. Change for the sake of change doesn't do much. But with all due respect to past work and accomplishments, DSP has seen the world move quickly by him the last few seasons. Falvey more completely in charge is a good thing. And he's got a new #2 officially in place in Zoll who's a bit of a man behind the curtain mystery, but whom nuggets of positivity have been dropped at different times. This seems like a positive change.
- 86 replies
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- dave st peter
- jeremy zoll
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I'm not a Godfather fan, but I'm struck with the line from movie #3 with the quote, "they suck me back in". The warning sign was "trade" and I kinda skipped over that part just to read the article and see some amazing hilights. And then I read the rest and saw a trade proposal ideas and just shook my head. Matthew, I generally love your posts. But this is absolutely cannon fodder. No insult to Perkins, but with the OF depth the Brewers are working with, potentially, he's closer to a DFA or a trade for a lower level prospect than he is a trade for Ryan or Ober! While the Twins have been drastically negligent, IMO, for delaying opportunity for a #4 drafted prospect in Keirsey, that the current FO drafted, for a ML opportunity, he's a year younger than Perkins, and has a better MILB quad slash line as a hitter. Why in hell wouldn't the Twins FINALLY, let Keirsey prove himself next season on a limited payroll team as a backup option with good defense, speed, and some pop potential? He's a year younger than Perkins, and has better MILB numbers. The ONLY thing he has above Keirsey is opportunity. And that's a FO mistake. With a limited budget, you want to add a CF option that's probably close to the defensive value of a MILB player already on hand with a better MILB offensive track record already on hand? I guess you just needed to get paid for making an OP that people responded to. And I'm sorry to be that direct as its not my nature. But this just makes ZERO sense.
- 33 replies
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- blake perkins
- joe ryan
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I believe I read the other day that Williams elected to become a MILB FA. He's reportedly worked very hard to become a solid catcher, and I've heard reports in the past that he's a very smart guy behind the plate. I wouldn't mind seeing him come back if he doesn't like other opportunities presented to him elsewhere. I've heard Winkel is a solid backstop, but his CS % is in the teens for his career so far. And after showing some progression with the bat at AA in 2023, he took a major downturn at AAA in 2024. Cossetti had everyone on notice with his bat and power when drafted. It was said his defense and game calling needed work, which is part of the reason he went to the AFL after the 2023 season. But the arm might play as he was around 27% CS in 2023. But that dropped to 17% in 2024, and the bat suddenly disappeared when he hit AA. Cardenas also saw his bat disappear at AA in 2024 after a very promising 2023. He's reportedly a pretty decent athlete with a good eye, some power potential, solid behind the plate, and has thrown out 28% of base stealing threats in his pro career. But the bottoming out with the bat in 2024 is a worry. The Twins haven't just IGNORED catching as a position. They just haven't drafted very high since Jeffers, seemingly looking for development guys. As of today, Camargo is still #3. Personally, based on his 2022 and 2023, I remain disappointed the Twins didn't put him behind the plate more in his brief 2024 time with the club. I won't just dismiss Winkel after 1 bad year at AAA, but catching is thin at St Paul if he doesn't rebound. Based on 2023, I was quite encouraged by the performance of the catchers in the system. Cossetti needed work behind the plate, but showed a decent arm and real offensive potential. And Cardenas might have been the best, most complete catcher in the system. Were they just not ready for AA yet? Did they just BOTH have bad years? They remain the best prospects behind Camargo...who I still like...but they both need big rebound seasons in 2025. In the 2024 draft the Twins selected Khadim Diaw in the 3rd round. Highest since Jeffers. He's raw behind the plate and has as much time or more in the OF. But they see a ML catcher there. Personally, I still believe catchers are developed more than they are drafted. There's only so many Mauer's out there in the first couple of rounds you can draft and plug and play. They also drafted an OF by the name of Jaime Ferrer right after who was a highly regarded catcher in HS, from what has been reported. I recall a family member or friend joining TD right after the draft who stated he moved to the OF in college due to his bat and athleticism, but stated he was an excellent HS backstop. That makes me wonder if the Twins might try him out there or move him there. Some guys are meant to be catchers and some aren't. I just wonder if he might be worth looking at there. I know this OP is about Olivar and his worth as a potential catcher and 40 man add. But the overall depth of catchers in the system has been brought up, so I've sort of hijacked the thread a bit as a result. As of TODAY, 2024 was a downturn disappointment across the MILB system in regards to Twins catching prospects. Camargo remains #3 on the list for many good qualities, but is completely umproven at the ML level. Behind him, Cossetti and Cardenas have the bat, arm, and defensive potential to be legitimate prospects. But both have to make serious rebounds in 2024 to re-establish themselves.

