DocBauer

IF the Twins trade for a SP, he needs to the equivalent of Gray and Ryan. It's easy to just say "go get so and so", but harder to actually pull it off. You're competing with other teams, and what is the cost? Does your system actually fit with what the other team is looking to add? So while someone better than Gray or Ryan would be awesome, as good still gives the team THREE solid SP that you can feel good about on the mound in a playoff game. A really nice #3 with control and maybe upside wouldn't stink, even if falling a little short of the mark. I don't think Thor fits any of this criteria. There's a decent chance he's better, and closer to his precious self in 2023, further removed from injury and recovery. But he's only a rental and one that probably isn't any better than Winder, a healthy Dobnak, even Bundy or 4 IP "opener" like Archer. I don't see a fit unless he comes really cheap and the FO see something to tweak the Angels haven't found.

Like so many of the guys the Twins bring in to the system, he just sounds like a quality person and highly intelligent. I can really appreciate a young player that can identify his strengths but really understand what needs work, and is open to knowledge and learning. I really liked his assement of his change, bite and depth but lacking consistency. I could easily see him make a move back to the pen, where's he had experience. Obviously needs to work on his 3rd and 4th offerings to remain a starter, as well as stretch himself out more. But the smarts seem to be there, and he seems to be maintaining the theme of general control that all the draft choices have.

When looking at his season, for a top program, in a top conference, I'm sure he would have been picked higher than the 6th round if he had "done it" before. This time next year I think he's going to "do it" again. I really like this guy and I think he might be a major steal.

So making an easy assumption that wasn't stated outright in the OP, we're going to dismiss Buxton, Polanco, Duran, etc, etc, who have performed well. We're looking for 3 MORE to step up, is how I take it. 3] Ober is a great choice. He had a great rookie 2021 and was off to a great 2nd season before his groin injury. The only problem Ober has, in some fans minds, IMO, is not being a top prospect and thus a potential top of the rotation piece. He was magic in the minors, despite missing time with injuries, really good as a rookie brought along slowly to improve, adapt, and monitor IP, and again, was off to a good start in 2022. Except for a couple speed bumps before and after his covid, Bundy has actually been pretty solid. But a healthy Ober is the better pitcher with actual potential. I think k the Twins have really missed him. A couple healthy months could go a long way. 2] Kirilloff is now healthy and just tapping in to his potential. He's an OK OF and great 1B. He's going NOWHERE unless a trade offer is just too damn good to pass up. He's a big part of today and tomorrow. Eventually, if not now, he's going to push the solid Kepler down in the order and be part of the heart of the Twins order for years to come. 3] You're wrong on Correa. While he hasn't necessarily had a "defining" moment, past his slow start, he's been not only productive and great in the field, he's been a leader as well. A true #3...as of today and not speculating on a trade addition or 2...would be a tie of Miranda and Gray. The break gives Gray time for a re-set to be his normal self and the guy who began the season. Miranda just needs to keep doing what he's doing. So #3 is a tie.

With the draft just completed, the timing for an OP of this nature is absolutely timely. Same as the recent OP on who is the top prospect. But is the intent of this OP FAIR at this time? And here's what I mean, Balazovic has been off all year after starting late, and for whatever reason, hasn't been close to right all season. Canterino is hurt right now. SWR is/has been dinged as well. When someone who is a top prospect gets hurt...think Lewis...or has a poor season or half season, or poor 1st year, we talk and debate about POTENTIAL and their projectile future and not their current status. In other words, if Balazovic has been a top arm, even ranked in the top 100, and is having a poor 2022 for whatever reason, has his prospect light really dimmed that much? I mean, he could get 100% right with an offseason and come in next year and look fantastic. So one bad year ruined his potential and his future? And that's where I see a problem with trying for a top 5 NOW. Does that make sense? Potential and pure stuff and seemingly healthy and ready to go, I'll also go with Priellip as #1. The ceiling is very high. I'm still going with Balazovic at #2. He's climbed the system and gotten better and better. He was still good in 2021. He was a top 100, FWIW, to begin this season, I believe. There's a very good chance he just "gets right" in the offseason, mentally and physically, and looks great in 2023. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for a bad year of struggle. Ive come around, unfortunately, to the idea that Canterino just might end up in the pen. And he might be as good as Duran in that role. But for now, I'd keep him in the rotation because if the STUFF suddenly intersects with better health, LOOK OUT. Even as a possible RP, he's got a great arm. So I'm keeping him at #3, though he might be better than Balazovic. I'm not a lover or hater of SWR. I fully excuse his 2021 due to being so young at AA as well as going through the whole Olympic experience. While he didn't dominate to begin this year, he looked pretty good, especially considering his age. I need to see more from him in 2023 or I'm going to drop him on my list. But he's the kind of young arm that could just suddenly have the light bulb burn bright and turn it on. But I'm keeping him at #4 for now. #5 is where I'm really torn. In the short 2020 draft, Raya was my favorite pick. If he was 2" taller, I think he's a #2 pick probably. Just a shame he couldn't pitch last year. But after positive/glowing reports on him coming out of the instructionals, and what he's shown in 2022, I'm really high on him. But since then, Povich has looked very impressive. Hajjar has flashed great stuff, with a few too many BB, but then seemed to greatly limit them in his last couple of starts before going on the IL. Festa has looked like an absolute STEAL. And Varland just keeps moving up and doing well. So I've got 5 guys who could easily project in to the top 5 right now based on projection, ability and results. Since it would mean chickening out to just say I have a 5-way tie for the 5th spot...though that's how I feel...I'm going with Povich at #5. The overall control and increased velocity and K rates give him the smallest of edges. And I'll be brave enough to pick the remaining 4 tied for #6. Raya is just so young, I want to see more. I want Festa to keep it up and make certain he's got at least that 3rd pitch, as well as endurance. Hajjar needs to get healthy again and crank it back up. He could be the best if he does so. Varland just needs to keep doing what he's been doing and prove he can continue to be solid/dominate at the AAA level. I think Varland suffers from the "Ober" syndrome, prove it more than some others because you weren't a top draft choice from a major school.

"The tools of ignorance" is, of course, an oxymoron. Takes some intelligence to be a really good catcher and this kid seem really bright. He has a very smart attitude towards not over thinking and keeping it simple at times. Really excited about him.

Great OP, BTW! But I'm going to offer a somewhat contrary position. And I could end up being very, very wrong, of course. A few of those teams, Baltimore as an example, have hit a hot streak. And once you make the playoffs, who knows what can happen? And the Twins are sitting in that seat as well. Bit some of these teams are still in a re-build frame of mind. Are they all prepared to make trades, sacrifice some solid players, in the hopes of taking their shot at this moment? Maybe they are and the competition for available talent will be as great as stated. But maybe a couple of them will sit pat and clutch to what they have. And maybe a couple will be looking at their system, and be willing to let someone go in order to add a few more pieces to assist a year or two from now. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.

With the obvious caveat of A] not being any sort of talent scout/evaluator, and B] who the heck knows how ANY draftee will turn out in the long run, I really like what the Twins did. As to the SS issue, I was very OK with the numbers selected. Wander hasn't turned out. Cavaco is a huge question mark and has moved off SS. Holland is playing 2B and CF and is also off SS, unless I'm mistaken. Many a 3B and 2B, including some great ones, were once SS. And some have turned out to be fine OF as well. You need a bunch to find a couple, can move others, some become fine utility players, and some just become organizational players. But you need them too. But going deeper in to the players themselves, after Lee and Prielipp fell in to their laps, the Twins had to readjust their approach, at least to some degree, to make sure they could play with their signing pool $. I have little doubt some of the players they picked, while liked I'm sure, were drafted earlier than projected in order to save $ to ensure Lee and Prielipp are both signed. Doesn't mean they didn't draft guys they actually like, or project, just means they had to consider the financial impact. And what better way to do that than draft guys from smaller schools, or late bloomers getting their breakthrough opportunity, etc. I'm going to let the SS issue die at this point, enough already said. But did I read correctly that 6th pick Ortega, 2B, was actually a SS originally? Regardless, a huge explosion in his game after getting his first real opportunity for one of 2022's top programs. Exactly what the scouting department was looking for and targeting. Despite being second day arms, I'm really intrigued by Matthews and Lewis a lot. (And not just Lewis' knuckleball). They have a foundation to work with and the length to see a velocity jump the same way we've seen with Winder, Varland and others. And I'm very intrigued by LHP, 18th pick,Veen. He's not that big/long, and his velocity is reported as around 90mph. But the K's and control are outstanding. Can they add a couple MPH and have a surprise BP arm there? I was very pleased to see the pair of catchers selected. Lossetti's bat seems to play, though he's from a smaller school. I think it's easier to develop a catcher defensively than teach him how to hit, or have power. Baez had a good year, but doesn't seem to have as good a hit tool or as much power, but he did play at a higher level. If I understand his bio on the draft page, he was more a utility player who finally got his chance to be the every day backstop. A potential steal as a late bloomer? Again, I see a trend here. I'm not holding out much hope for any of the 3 HS kids being signed. I think they have a shot at Omari Daniel since he is rehabbing from injury. He's a shot in the dark but talented. Does he take a nice, solid $ number and run with it or decide to try college in 2024? If you were 18yo and uncertain what your future was, would you grab a chance at a pro future, and somewhere between $300-500K for an overshot signing? (I'm just spitballing $ numbers with potential $ saved even after Prielipp). I just don't see $ available to SS Daniel or OF Dickerson, but you never know. The Twins took a flier on both. Maybe, just maybe, they save enough pool $ with all the senior/4th year juniors that they can tempt them. In most of OUR worlds, I dare say, numbers like $300-500K are a small fortune. But for an 18yo with dreams and aspirations of college ball, a degree, the possibility of being a top 5 round pick or better in 3yrs, it might sound small in the grand scheme of things. But if you're the Twins, why wouldn't you take the shot, just in case? This draft will be defined by the first two picks. Anything after is gravy and good scouting work. But I think they worked this draft pretty damn well.

100%! There is no reason why he can't take infield practice and even continue to play a little 2B/3B here and there to keep those spots in play for future flexibility. That's what you do in milb. And those are the spots he primarily played in college. Just admit...which I sort of think they have...that he's just not a SS. There's no crime or disappointment in that! Put him in LF, play him some in CF as well, and let him relax and work on a stroke and an approach that works for him. Again, I find myself comparing him to former Royal great Alex Gordon. Alex was a fine 3B for the Huskers in college and was drafted as such. For some reason, he just get over the proverbial "hump" there in his pro career and was moved to the OF. I see Martin doing the same thing, and even being a similar hitter, potentially. The SKILLS are there to be a solid hitter with high OB%. He's got speed to make an impact. And he's big enough, athletic enough, that I think power will come. And he might never be a slugger and consistently hit 25-30 HR, but so what? He might be a high teens and low 20's HR guy with 30+ doubles every year, with some SB and hit and get OB and be quality defensively. That would be a really, really nice ballplayer.

Just wanted to say that it would be nice if your better prospects did debut around 23yo, I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The sooner the better, right? But I've never seen a 25yo debuting, or maybe entering his 1st FULL season at that age. And here's why I personally feel why. A college draftee is usually 21 when selected. (There are exceptions, of course). With the milb season going longer now, and the earlier mandate for signing, most will be able to get 4-6 weeks of action at an A level. The next year they're 22yo, on average, and probably at A+, with the hope of reaching AA at some point. At age 23 they're MAYBE ready for AAA, but probably at AA, at least at the start of the year. So long as they aren't set back by injury and any development issues, 23-24 reaching the majors, even for a cup of coffee, is not out of the question. But again, that's if everything goes about perfect. So to me, being 25yo is really not all that detrimental as to future success and contributions. And while there were a handful of guys who actually hit the majors in 2020, the large populous of prospects didn't play at all, or were some of the fortunate few who at least got to work out at their alternate sites. But that's still very different than having a full season of playing and development. And while I don't have any evidence to back it up, I think a number of injuries, especially to pitchers, has been a result of the loss of continuity due to 2020. Personally, when I look at any prospects age right now, 23-24-25, I basically subtract a year. In other words, prospect wise, a 24yo is really 23yo in baseball terms. If that makes sense. Anyway, just me and my thoughts is all.

I'm also voting Rodriguez to #3 and dropping Martin down to #5. While I'm not sure I'm putting them ahead of Martin at this point simply due to the "potential" Martin still has, echoing Dman's shout out to Steer and Wallner. Steer is basically doing this year what Miranda did last season. But also want to throw some love the way of CES. While defensive questions remain, what a bat! Not saying he's top 5, just recognizing that what hes doing is pretty awesome and worth being mentioned.

Such great opinions across the board and I've liked and disagreed with points on both sides of the aisle. Before going any further, I just have to address the sudden elephant in the debate concerning the pipeline. Absolutely, no doubt injuries and whatnot have affected many of the Twins prime arms this year. And I'm not going to blow any smoke that will cover the stench of disappointment. Has 2020 still hand a lingering affect? Possibly, at least for some. And I'm thinking Canterino and Balazovic as possibles. Is SWR, now out with injury, suffering from youth as well as an interrupted 2021 despite an early good start? I'd say yes. Anyone who is disappointed in Enlow while coming back from his TJ is misguided, as far as I'm concerned. And it's not being overly optimistic to state that for some of these arms, finishing the year the best they can, going through the fall developmental season, and a fresh start to 2023 could make a big difference. Stink for NOW though! Doesn't matter if Jax either never had a chance due to stuff or his delayed progression early on, the fact is he's part of the pipeline and has the look of a quality RP going forward. How good remains to be seen. Duran looks awesome and I've been impressed by Winder, for the most part, and believe he's only going to get better. Other than being a rookie of the year contender, how much better could you have really hoped for, especially having his year interrupted by an injury and bouncing around? Moran is NOT a finished product, but he's actually flashed and thrown up better numbers at the ML level than at AAA. How about he sticks around for a while in lower level situations and see what he does? I think this team has really missed Ober a lot. He was a huge surprise in 2021 and only got better as his rookie season went along. He was looking good before his groin injury. Again, I think the team has really missed him. And if you want to split fine hairs, the "pipeline" has allowed pre-injury Dobnak to give huge aid in 2020 and Smeltzer pretty much saved the Twins for about a month plus this season. As far as Ryan goes, both sides are right. The Twins didn't draft him, but they got him as a milb SP. They gave him his first shot, and have continued to develop him. He's a Twin now, and in the Twins system, so everyone wins and everyone is right. (Heavy sigh) Back to the OP. However you want to brand the 2022 Twins...your choice...they are competitive and fun and NOT the losing 2021 version. They are in 1st place in the ALC and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. If I'm correct, winning the ALC, no matter how down it may or may not be, they get the first 3 playoff games at home. We can complain all we want about "good" vs "great" but getting a shot is the most important thing! Period! Anything can happen at that point! (Would you rather be losing?). What this team needs, and has needed for a month and a half after duct tape and bailing wire held things together is BULLPEN HELP. And I, and hopefully everyone, can now just stop all the previous angst and frustration and debates and just concentrate on the next couple of weeks. I am bemused, frustrated and confused by all the BP trade options and the potential cost. I understand the playoffs have been expanded, but with July half over, how many teams are REALLY in contention to the point they aren't going to listen? I keep referring to 2019 when the Twins traded a couple late 30-ish prospects and a few low A prospects for solid, veteran, previously proven rental arms in Romo and Dyson. Romo did so well he was worthy of being brought back in 2020. A HEALTHY Dyson would have been as good or even better get, and maybe also a nice re-sign. (No need to rehash his injury or what happened later). In 4yrs, has the cost for a pair of rental RP climbed so high it takes top 20 prospects? And it smarter to spend prospect capital to acquire a pair of RP with control when history has shown its probably the most volatile position in all of MLB? If the FO can somehow bring in a pair of high quality BP arms for more than a year without giving up too much, good for them! Kudos! But reality says they're just not going to do that. I'm not sure what team would. They need to do another 2019 inexpensive trade where the other team gets a couple "nice" pieces before they lose what they have and don't need. If the Twins fall in to a deal for an extended contract arm that doesn't cost too much, the DO IT, You also have to remember that any rentals the Twins trade for could be re-signed, right? You also have to remember that despite arms on hand, they will also have massive payroll $ to spend to add a RP or two, finally NOT ignoring the BP importance, with Correa gone. And even if he would somehow stay, there will STILL be some $ to spend. Rotation help? Sorry, but I agree with chpettit19, it's questionable if the Twins have what it takes to bring in a difference maker. I AGREE with making additions! But what do you have to give up for 1 1/2 years of a rotation piece? Wallner or Larnach? I'd like to keep Larnach, but I think Wallner could be a nice replacement. Martin could be, IMO , the next Alex Gordon if allowed to just play the OF moving forward. Ober is good, Balazovic could be great if someone believes. What does it take to make a deal for 1 1/2 years of a SP? If someone is wiling to offer up a 4-1 deal, let's say the Marlins, for a combination of 4 top 10-30 prospects, I'm listening. Balazovic, Wallner, Steer and MAYBE Canterino. I'm at least listening. But I'm NOT trading from my 26-ish roster. I'm going with what I have and focusing on pen additions and trusting in what I have.

Really nice to see Williams healthy and hitting well and hitting with power. He was a potential steal when drafted as a senior signing who couldn't play catcher his senior year due to injury. He's basically struggled with the bat since being drafted until this year. I've heard a couple reports here and there that suggest he's OK behind the dish, and one young pitcher, I think Winder but can't recall for sure, spoke about his knowledge and loving to throw to him. He's playing a lot of 1B right now. 15 games started at catcher, (17 games total), and 41 starts at 1B. So can he really catch or not? Cardenas was the Twins 8th pick in the 2021 draft, and the first of 3 catchers selected, and was off to a rough start this year. Seeing him heat up is really nice! Despite a poor BA and too many SO, he's also walked almost as much as he's K'd and showed some power. A strong finish along with the solid year of Pat Winkel, drafted right after, makes catcher in the lower minors much stronger going in to 2023.

As it's written/proposed, I'd do that deal. I don't like giving up both Ober AND Balazovic. But Castillo basically takes Ober's spot so again, I do the deal. Maybe substitute Steer instead of Martin? I mean, if Cincinnati would be sour on Martin's down year vs potential.

Agree the draft ultimately comes down to the first couple of picks, and with that in mind, I doubt anyone selected on day 2...or the impending day 3....has been or will be selected for much of an over-sign. But let's not forget day 2 the past 4 years, (can't really count 2020 draft), has brought in Sands, Winder, Gipson-Long, Hebdrick, Holland, Encarnacion-Strand, just to name a few. Day 3 has brought in Ober, Helman, Mooney, Julien, Isola, and Festa. Again, just to name a few. Hard to believe that Isola, probably the top catching prospect at the moment, was selected in a round that doesn't even exist any longer. So even day 3 can be very important. It's not like the Twins are just drawing names out of a hat to just take their turn and move on. I think you'll see college seniors, smaller school kids with athletic talent that just didn't attend a major conference for whatever reason, and very likely a couple guys who's last year was hurt or wiped out due to injury.

Thank you for the clarification! I should have remembered the Sun Belt was D1. Obviously my brain was on overload or needing a re-charge. Thanks for your thoughts as well as the reminder.

I like Schobel the more I read about him. I think he's a "gamer" and Neto-lite who the FO actually likes. The rest of today was, clearly and understandably, about low cost and some "cheap" upside that may turn out I'm OK with that. Ortega is interesting at 2B and a possible surprise. The various SS all bring some hit ability and varying degrees of potential, but if even ONE jumps out, you WIN. (You still need to field teams throughout your system). A couple of arms that are a bit "meh", but have BP potential. time But I do have interest in Matthews and Lewis as tall/long arms who could both project with tutelage in the Twins syatem while concentrating on baseball full time going forward. And recent draft history shows the Twins have done well in both day 2 and day 3 with solid/interesting projects. But today was still clearly, again, about the first couple of picks and a little "hope" cast out. No problem!

The past few drafts have provided some very nice surprises beyond the first 10 picks. Quite a few in fact, including Festa, who was picked, I think, in the 14th round, just last year. So this isn't over yet by any stretch of the imagination. But the obvious key to this draft is the 1st two picks and money to sign both. I kinda like Schobel the more I read about him. He's a well rounded "Neto-lite" who flew under the radar due to his more well known/recognized teammate Cross, and I don't think he was just an under slot selection in the Twins FO eyes. I do believe the rest of day 2 was spent on easy signs for under slot who still have potential. And I'm 100% OK with that considering the system and our 2 top picks. I think they drafted a couple of "cheap" arms that might be solid BP additions. Matthews and Lewis are EXACTLY the kind of college pitchers they always look for; tall and long and projectible once in the system. Ortega could be a powerful/hit preference but limited to 2B. The rest are easy and inexpensive signings who might surprise, and allow Prielipp to be brought on board with whatever contract $ they've probably already agreed on. I have zero issues with this draft. Just surprised, there wasn't a single OF that they felt good about selecting

FWIW in regard to Daulton Shuffield: 5' 9" and 170lbs. 23yo, so he's older than most to be sure. He was named a 2nd team All American by "Collegiate Baseball Newspaper" who I've never heard of, but assume it was, obviously, for Div II, which is where I believe Texas State plays at. He was also named the Sunbelt Player of the Year. He set a number of school records, FWIW, but this is his 2022 year: .378/ .444/ .668/ 1.113 He had 20 Dbls/ 5 tpls/ 13 HR/ 48 RBI And scored 78 R while being 16-19 in SB. Clearly an inexpensive signing with some athleticism and potential, but nothing to be excited for, especially considering age. But he's, at worst, a low level roster filler with some potential to help out somewhere.

A trend? We have drafted a lot of big power guys, bat first in some cases, the past few years. But there's also been a lot of the Steer and Julien and other types selected for better contact and hit tools. This year more of the same. So while the FO wants power and believes in it...and you should to based on trends and run scoring percentages...they also understand and appreciate the "hit" tool. It's why Arraez is so important. And it's why Kirilloff is so important. And why Larnach, though he can't match Kepler's defense, might just surpass Max by next season as an offensive presence because he just might be the better overall "hitter".

Didn't see anything posted on Zebby Matthews, unless I missed it. 6' 5" 210lbs and 22 yo. 3yr composite, with the abbreviated 4 games in 2020 included: 13-9/ 3.49 ERA/ 183.1 IP/ 211 SO/ 10.4 K per/ 181 hits/ 30 BB/ 1.151 WHIP. Walks are OK, hits acceptable but a little high. Got bit some in 2022 by the HR ball with 12 bombs in 95.2 IP. Sorry, all I could find at this point.

Seems to really fit the mold, right? Tall and long with some velocity and spin. Curve maybe gets tweaked and thrown harder for more of a slurve? May have to decide change or cutter but not both, or some variation. Please, please...and not for nostalgia sake...if the kid actually has a workable knuckleball, don't stop him from playing with/using it. How crazy good/effective to break it out a few tines a game to really put hitters on their heels? Is he the 2022 Festa pick?

Keep in mind that while the cupboard is thin at AAA, Hamilton appears to have made a decent conversion. Williams is finally healthy and hitting well at AA, though he's also playing a lot of 1B. Carmago has a chance, but appears to be defense and power without a great hit tool. And Isola at AA appears to have the bat. Picked in 2019, he's only in his 2nd full season and doing well. Keep in mind, while results vary in SSS, the Twins selected 3 catchers in 2021. A lot TBD at this point, but they don't appear to think catcher is a primary need at this point. Also possible, of course, they just don't like what's on the board now that we're past the first few rounds.

6' 190lbs and 21yo. Only 13 games and 36 PA in 2021. But as mentioned, he blew up in 2022 at Tennessee. .323/ .398/ .672/ 1.070 20 Dbls/ 4 Tpls/ 18 HR/ 61 RBI

Kyle Jones, RHP, 6'1" 200lbs All MAC baseball and academic. 7-3 with 4.24 ERA (5th in the MAC), and 2nd in K's and IP with 91.1 IP and 114 K's. All I could find.