Hosken Bombo Disco

Correa for Baez, straight up, and the Twins save $9 million a year for the next three years that they can apply to other free agents 🙂 (but also lose a gold glove fielder)

Falvey sounds like a guy unburdened by what has been, and what can be 🙂

When removing the Viking losses, Vikings opponents so far have a record of 13-7. What they said about the difficult early schedule appears to be true.

does the phrase “no walks” mean anything to you

I am mostly neutral on the quantitative & hard data side of analytics. I trust that teams are finding data that helps them. My guess is that front offices have instructed analytics people to seek exit velocity (EV) and see that as their holy grail, with everything that goes into achieving a high EV and the benefits that come from putting a ball in play with high EV. I am also observing costs and downsides of chasing EV. I just see a lot of teams that all kind of look like each other (to me) in MLB today. Kind of like all those cookie cutter stadiums built in the 50s and 60s. The same, but different—but basically the same. Another guess with my EV theory is that teams mostly know what the other teams are doing. “That team is going for EV, and so are we.” Different from Oakland 20 years ago and Oakland’s search for on base percentage (OBP), when other teams didn’t really pay heed to it. The irony Oakland and the Moneyball story is that Michael Lewis didn’t really write much about the Oakland pitching staff in those years, which was very good. The story was mostly about the OBP. With my theory about teams prioritizing EV, I also concede that I am likely to be wrong or only seeing a small part of the picture. With all that said, I am more interested in the qualitative softer side of analytics, questions like “how did the Detroit Tigers sustain that hot streak in the end?” or “can pitch framing be coached” or “why is Jhoan Duran so poor in non-save situations” or “did Royce Lewis’s slump coincide with the Twins asking him to play second base?” or “why did all the Twins infielders except for Carlos Correa all go into a slump at the same time?” And so on, Are these valid questions for an analytics department today? Is today’s analytics asking them?

Wow momentum can swing in this sport. Last week when it was 21-0 (and then jt actually became 28-0) I thought to myself, are we at the high point of the season right now? Does it only go down from here? So that’s what I am thinking right now too, because I am a lifelong Vikings fan 🙂

It was meant as a joke, nothing more. Riverbrian saw what I was going for. Not even a put down or snide remark, just an opportunity to be silly for a moment. Honest.

Another great post rb. I like your point about what a pitcher can do to confound the best laid plans of analytics. Think about how many runners Pablo Lopez (or say Jose Berrios) can leave on base. “They shouldn’t be as good as they are! How are they so lucky?” It is just an instinct for pitching there, for how to get a batter out when needed, for what pitch to throw in any given situation. Or how & where to throw a given pitch that the catcher calls, or is called by the dugout. Especially getting batters out like Wallner, Larnach or Julien (sorry if any of those three are anyone’s favorite.) My gut tells me this is part of why offense is down; enough pitchers who know how to pitch on a gut level. Greg Maddux was the best. Bailey Ober has this skill too. If Paul Skenes has this instinct, combined with his physical talent and stuff, he will be this generation’s Clayton Kershaw or Pedro Martinez. “gut” can’t be measured of course; but neither can “hotness” (talking about the 2024 Detroit Tigers, not Ryan Gosling 🙂) Pure baseball talent will be cool again someday. Lots still to talk about. We are not done with this subject.

ignore the spreadsheet?

Have a game, Kirko.

100% correct.

I appreciate the find. However, it’s from May 2017, and I don’t think it says what you claim it says. Levine said he came from a risk-taking organization (Texas) and he said he attempts to balance decision making, depending on the situation. Levine does not come out and say “I’m the risk taker here” or anything like that.

Good luck to Levine. I liked his interviews. There was no way Levine was the final sign-off for the bigger decisions, like the Pablo-Arraez trade (fair to say is working out well), the Donaldson signing (heh) or the Correa signing $200 million with $33 million a year locked up. So, not sure Levine leaving really moves the needle.

Another thing the Padres are doing is turning over their managers every couple years.

Not even close. You were very vocal about it. Also not even close. Just because you can’t do or see something doesn’t mean no one else can. “Easy to be wrong” is not the right way to explain it. It’s a shame that base hits and table setters are overrated in today’s game. It would be nice to know what the Twins saw in Margot and Julien as leadoff batters this year. Any ideas?

Surprised no one commented on Goff’s perfect night. He went 18-18, with 292 yards, and 2 TD Which did not earn him a perfect passer rating, believe it or not.

“Thrilled”.. You also called Jose Salas a stud. Anyway, the incompetence of the Pohlads would be easier to digest if we had smarter people running this team.

Agree wholeheartedly, but it's not just the Twins. I think it's endemic to all of the mediocre teams competing for that 5th and 6th wildcard. Example. Can't remember the situation, I think it was the Miami series, but I do remember Trevor Larnach not being held at first base and being allowed to just trot down to second base late in a game in a not insignificant moment. Even on his bad hamstring. I may be wrong here again, but I would like to see the stats on 1st & 2nd, no outs, or even 2nd & 3rd, and not scoring. It seems like this has been a huge problem for a lot of teams, not just the Twins. Batters just don't change their approaces. Swing your swing and see what happens. Well I will tell you what happens: strikeouts happen. Or popups. At least against the better pitchers. ...Rant over.

AL Central 2-0 after first day. You need to be able to win low scoring games in MLB.

I dunno, I guess I would keep giving Buxton an Incomlete until he plays a bigger chunk of the season? Its such a strain to have so many guys who need backups and constant moving around, and that doesn’t really show up in the stat lines, imo. So they need to find the 2025 version of Michael Taylor or Manuel Margot again and cross our fingers.

Buxton? Buxton scored 62 runs, Anthony Santander was 10th in the American League with 91 runs scored. Just thinking someone upthread got their signals crossed

My thinking is that the KC game was the turning point. I am fine if people disagree with that and call the Texas loss or Miami loss the big ones, or one of the Cleveland losses. Heck the Twins would still have been mathematically alive on the last day of the season, had they won that KC game, if everything else had played out the same (which it wouldn’t have, but still). Everyone in the game thread was asking for Ober to be allowed to pitch the 8th that night; Ober was breezing, and the bottom of the order was coming up. Ober knew the deal and wanted to stay in. You gotta roll the dice at some point for your starters. You need to save your bullpen guys in that stretch. Etc etc. Rocco compounded the mistake by bringing in Duran as you said.

Now if I’m the Mets, with a playoff clinch and in the drivers seat, I look at the matchup and ask if Milwaukee is an easier opponent than San Diego? Not fair to the Diamondbacks but they had their opportunities.

then Mets stunned in 8th, then Braves stunned in 9th Great game! MLB got the Game 163 they did not want. 🙂

Hi Chief. I remember too — we were having this same conversation about Rocco already back in 2022, if not earlier.