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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I believe this is true, correct me if I'm wrong, but these projections are for rosters as-is, which basically means the Twins could finish 82-80 if all the free agents on the market retire. As the free agent talent gets allocated to other teams that 82-win projection will drop. I think the other thing adding helium to the Twins win total is the division they play in. They play a lot of games against the weak AL Central.
  2. DJL44
    I keep wondering how many prospects they can get to take bad contracts off the luxury tax paying teams. If they’re willing to take on Manea from the Mets, can they get even more talent?
  3. DJL44
    Andujar's speed has dropped so he's not really an outfielder anymore, but I think he can play first base. The Twins can apparently coach anyone to become a gold glove first baseman, though that was under the previous coaching staff.
  4. DJL44
    I don’t think that’s why they want to trade Ryan and Jeffers. If the Twins trade Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers, they should spend some of that enormous amount of available money on free agents who can be flipped in July for more prospects.
  5. DJL44
    He's a great value at the $5-7M range and quite tradeable in July if desired.
  6. DJL44
    It goes back a long time. In the early years, it was agreed that the home team shares the gate with the visitors (otherwise they wouldn't travel to the game at all). The other part is me reclassifying "local" TV money as "national" which acknowledges that there is no "local" in media in a post-cable, streaming landscape.
  7. DJL44
    Right now, the owners only get 52% of each local dollar spent and send the other 48% to the league. I'm proposing that all national revenue gets split evenly 30 ways (TV, radio, licensing, etc) and all gameday revenue gets kept locally. The overall percentage of shared revenue would be about the same as it is now but the incentive to put butts in seats would double overnight. Owners could cut ticket prices in half and make the same marginal revenue, or they could enhance the "gameday experience" (cheap beer?) or they could spend money to create a winning team. If overall baseball attendance goes up, that's a win. I don't really care about parity if MLB draws 7 million more fans to the ballpark (10% increase).
  8. DJL44
    Correct, incentives matter. 100% of locally generated revenue should to the team. If you don't want to spend, nobody will attend your games, use your parking lot or buy your concessions and you'll make less money. TV money doesn't ebb and flow with team success but attendance revenue correlates very well with trying to win. The only teams that draw well without winning are the Rockies and the Cubs and that's because it's a huge beer blast with a baseball game attached.
  9. DJL44
    The current Democrats are a bunch of Rockefeller Republicans. There aren't ANY communists in American politics. Bernie Sanders is a social democrat, which is a centrist in Europe.
  10. DJL44
    Yes, that is definitely true. If you're fast but throw lefthanded you're an OF. If you're not fast but can field grounders well you're a 1B. Keith Hernandez would have been a SS except he threw lefthanded.
  11. DJL44
    I would make the trade for Tong, Reimer and Kussow
  12. DJL44
    This is probably necessary. The Twins are never going to be successful if the Pohlads are using them as a piggy bank to fund their other business failures.
  13. DJL44
    The Twins could desperately use a mediocre SS and a mediocre 1B as well as a few mediocre relievers.
  14. DJL44
    If they draft one more their next one is free. It’s a CBA loophole that not many know about.
  15. DJL44
    I’d be pretty irritated if I had to endure a professional sports draft. What a horrible way to spend a weekend.
  16. DJL44
    Then I wouldn't get too obsessed that the Twins "didn't get a top 100 prospect". The Yankees got unranked Luis Gil for Jake Cave. 1/3 of the future top talent will spend time in the foreign rookie leagues. Quantity in prospects is a necessary hedge. If you want lower risk (only picking from AA and AAA players) you're going to give away potential upside.
  17. DJL44
    Dalton Rushing, River Ryan, Hyesong Kim, Justin Wrobleski, Bobby Miller - several interesting players who aren't on prospect lists anymore.
  18. DJL44
    It's the revenue sharing, not the salary cap. Adding a salary cap doesn't give the Tigers any additional resources. MLB already has a soft cap in the luxury tax system that forces more revenue sharing dollars to the smaller market teams. Take that away and they'll have even LESS revenue. OTOH - if they get the incentives right for revenue sharing, they don't need a salary cap at all.
  19. DJL44
    Tait is ranked #57 on the mlb list.
  20. DJL44
    Load it up by trading Buxton, Jeffers, Lopez, Ryan and Ober. Then load it up more by drafting high for the next two seasons.
  21. DJL44
    At a minimum Buxton should insist that his $2.5M in yearly plate appearance bonuses turn into guaranteed money. He's less likely to hit those bonuses on a contender with a stacked lineup. That would make his remaining contract 3 years / $52.5M. Plate Appearances: $2.5M total 502: $500k 533: $500k 567: $500k 600: $500k 625: $500k
  22. DJL44
    If Buxton didn't have a no-trade clause he'd already be gone. He's been injury-prone for his entire career and now he's 32. The Twins aren't going to win for the next two seasons and by the time they could put a good team together again Buxton will be 34 and a pending free agent.
  23. DJL44
    Version 2.0 after the Winter Meetings could look like this: Rotation: Ober, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Abel, Matthews Bullpen: mostly the same OF: Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Wallner, Outman IF: mostly the same C: Austin Jackson, Reese McGuire
  24. DJL44
    True, but they're also trying to get those same guys from the Mets for Joe Ryan.
  25. DJL44
    The Twins are probably better off dealing a piece to each team. Buxton to the Dodgers, Jeffers to the Phillies, Ryan or Lopez to the Mets.
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