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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    They got Mahle for 2022 AND 2023. The 2023 team won a playoff series. Who knows if they beat Houston with a healthy Mahle available.
  2. DJL44
    This is great news. He didn't need much of a velocity boost to get him to a point where he could really be effective. Woods-Richardson fulfilling his potential would make this rotation 7 deep.
  3. DJL44
    Funny how we don't have 100 articles complaining about Camargo being blocked by Vazquez. Maybe people realize catcher depth is important.
  4. DJL44
    Good article
  5. DJL44
    I am ambivalent about Farmer vs. Steer. Both are competent backups. CES is a DH but could be a useful DH. The only reason that deal was bad was Tyler Mahle couldn't stay healthy. It could just as easily been a win for the Twins and Steer could have been the injured player. Mahle has talent or the Rangers wouldn't be paying him $20M to rehab. I like that the Twins use veteran players to sit on the bench and want to develop young players by playing them every day. I like that they're willing to trade from the minor league depth to improve the major league team. The trades for Gray and Farmer were both good moves.
  6. DJL44
    Add that to the $20M+ they already have to invest elsewhere but aren't investing elsewhere.
  7. DJL44
    If Margot's knee is healthy he's the RH version of 2022 Max Kepler. That's a good player to have around for $5M. He's 29 and a comeback season means a slim chance they pick up his 2025 option (or find a different team that wants it). Miller for Doncon is a push. Both of them have a projected future value near zero. Danny De Andrade has a clear path forward. Word is Kike Hernandez is headed back to the Dodgers and that's why they wanted to move Margot. The Twins will probably cut Weiss to open their roster spot.
  8. DJL44
    Why does this have to be either/or? There should be a way to deliver games to people who have streaming AND people who have cable. There should even be some games available for people who only have an antenna. Stop negotiating "exclusive" rights that are certain to shrink the potential audience.
  9. DJL44
    Another television talking head put on air just for his good looks.
  10. DJL44
    Right, but if they can do another Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade it would be really tempting.
  11. DJL44
    I thought he just hibernated during the winter.
  12. DJL44
    He absolutely is next offseason.
  13. DJL44
    WAR is assigned defensively by the number of events at the position. Players get credit for making plays and debited if they miss them. RField is calibrated versus the average player at the position. Do you want to just make up events that didn't happen in the games to give SS and CF more credit? That would be credit for standing on the field watching someone else make the play. The second paragraph suggestion would fundamentally miscalculate WAR. Runs created and runs allowed have to balance. Your accounting would credit the offense for (example) creating 4 runs in a game but debit the defense for 8 runs allowed. Fielding and pitching HAVE to share defensive runs allowed. It's simple accounting; a credit in one place has to be a debit somewhere else.
  14. DJL44
    If Lee moves to 2B and Julien to 1B (I approve), then do they move Kirilloff or Kepler at the deadline? It makes equal sense to trade Kepler before he walks away next offseason, then play Wallner in RF and Kirilloff in LF.
  15. DJL44
    A lot of your 24 questions are also "hot stove" speculation. It's time to focus on scouting reports and spring training games. I will bite on a couple. Bailey Ober is already "locked up" for the next 4 seasons until he's 31 years old. Do you really want to guarantee his ages 32-34 seasons right now? Talking about players on other teams is fine. Baseball Think Factory died, and I don't have anywhere else I discuss players on other teams. I'd still rather talk Twins payroll than hear one word about the Minnesota Vikings.
  16. DJL44
    I think a lot of times we see the hot stove discussion too much during the season here (what will the roster look like in 2028?). Hot stove talk is a good way to pass time during the winter but during the season I like to see a lot more discussion of what is happening during the games, especially since I don't get to watch very many of them. For the game articles, tell me something I can't read in the box score.
  17. DJL44
    Dave St. Peter's Road From Intern To President And CEO Of The Minnesota Twins | Fargo INC! Not a feather in the cap for the University of North Dakota's major in public relations.
  18. DJL44
    It's pretty easy to look up how it is calculated. There is a set amount of WAR for the whole league. Pretty much all of the calculators agree on the run value of offensive events. (a single, walk, stolen base, etc). The amount of WAR allocated to run creation is the same amount allocated to run prevention (pitching and defense). If the amount allocated to defense is too low then the amount allocated to pitching has to be too high. There are only two ways WAR could undercount Molina's defense: 1) The best catchers are better than they appear and the worst catchers are worse than they appear. In other words, RField has the right average but the standard deviation is wrong. Catcher defense would be regressed too much to the mean. This gets problematic because it would suggest the worst 1/3 of catchers shouldn't be catching at all. A team starting Matt LeCroy or Ryan Doumit would put the team in a 1 run hole every game they caught. 2) The division of run prevention is incorrect between pitchers and catchers. Catchers should be getting more credit for strikeouts (and debit for walks) than they currently do. This gets into how much pitch framing and game calling are worth. There is a separate argument that catcher replacement value is wrong because it's based on position switching but that's secondary to the other points above and would affect all catchers equally based on games caught.
  19. DJL44
    So, I should just enjoy that wealthy people are horrible hypocrites and reward them for that behavior?
  20. DJL44
    It's currently cheaper and easier for me to follow the Cardinals or Brewers on TV than it is to follow the Twins. If I follow the Brewers, I can even see them play at Target Field every season.
  21. DJL44
    WAR is a zero-sum game so if Yadier Molina has value that isn't being properly attributed, that means his teammates (especially his pitchers) were actually worse than they appear. It also means that other MLB catchers were a lot worse than they appear. Ivan Rodriguez has the top RField for catchers with 147. Do you think Molina saved 100 more runs than Pudge Rodriguez? The defensive rankings for catchers are: Rodriguez, Molina, Gary Carter, Bob Boone, Jim Sundberg. WAR seems to be doing a good job identifying the best defensive catchers. Are you saying all the good defensive catchers are underrated? That would mean WAR is not giving enough defensive value to various defensive events. Blocked pitches, caught stealing, wild pitches and fielding bunts are pretty easy to quantify the run value so that can't be where the error lies. It would have to be that credit for strikeouts and walks that should go to the catcher is instead going to the pitcher. To be better than Mauer you have to believe that Molina has over 110 runs of defensive prevention that aren't accounted for. That would increase his RField from 138 to 250+ (while leaving Mauer's static even though he was a good defensive catcher). It would mean his pitchers got 1 WAR of extra credit that he deserved every season.
  22. DJL44
    I haven't ever had a baseball player demand public funding. Whenever an owner comes calling with his hand out it's a "community asset" not a business.
  23. DJL44
    I'm sure they would like to win another championship, but only if it doesn't cost them any money.
  24. DJL44
    Maybe they can "right-size" their television revenue instead of receiving the worst payout of any team in MLB.
  25. DJL44
    "Right-sized" would be about 15-18 in MLB. If they want to run a payroll less than $120M then signing Carlos Correa was a huge strategic mistake. Huge.
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