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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    The situations yesterday were pretty typical so knowing the base rate is actually really useful. The pitcher wasn’t wild. The batters weren’t so bad that bunting makes sense. The weather wasn’t a factor.
  2. DJL44
    Baltimore’s “ace” is not anything special. Kudos to you for knowing in advance that the bats would be “cold”. The rest of us only found that out after the fact. Your ability to predict the future is remarkable. Play your favorite lottery numbers now before that wears off.
  3. DJL44
    Run expectancy Runners on 1st and 2nd and 0 out = 1.55 Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out = 1.41 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-run-expectancy-matrix-reloaded-for-the-2020s/
  4. DJL44
    Close game that would have been a win with a timely hit. They won’t go 1-12 with RISP every game.
  5. DJL44
    Topa gave up one run because his outfielder threw to the wrong base. The game wasn’t tied, they were losing 1-0 at the time. If fans freak out every time a relief pitcher gives up a run it will be a long season.
  6. DJL44
    Is Wagaman playing 3B everyday or will he split time at 1B?
  7. DJL44
    Leo Jimenez is roughly the same age but has hit better than Lee in the majors. He just got DFA by the Blue Jays.
  8. DJL44
    If you break down the players who are OFF the 26-man roster you have: 8 pitchers 4 outfielders (Rodriguez, Roden, Mendez, Gonzalez) Wagaman and Kreidler 0 catchers If Lee or Gray gets hurt, they will promote Kreidler. If a different infielder gets hurt, they will promote Wagaman. If a catcher goes on the 10-day IL, they need to release a player. I expect to see a lot of Wagaman this season and very little of Gonzalez. Fedko and Rosario will struggle to get consistent playing time in AAA.
  9. DJL44
    They have 10 outfielders on the 40 man roster and two more in AAA who could play in MLB this season (Fedko and Jenkins). Nobody can afford to devote that much of the active roster to outfielders. They won’t need that much depth. They have MLB ready talent sitting in AAA, some of it more talented than what they have in MLB, burning options while their development stagnates. That’s not good asset management. Paying Larnach $5M to be redundant is bad asset management. There is little information they will learn in April and May that they didn’t already know about the MLB veterans. There is no process to play out. We will continue to watch marginal veterans no other teams want get playing time while the rookies waste time in St Paul.
  10. DJL44
    I hope Jackson makes it through waivers. It will be useful to have him when they trade Jeffers.
  11. DJL44
    Toronto was in the World Series with George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Davis Schneider and Nathan Lukes on the depth chart ahead of Roden. It is a little different.
  12. DJL44
    I think 95% confidence is a really high bar to not overturn. One standard deviation is a good threshold (0.2 inches or 0.5 cm).
  13. DJL44
    Jackson is getting a DFA. They'll also have to move a pitcher of the 40-man to add Altavilla.
  14. DJL44
    Buxton got replaced on defense during the WBC. It's almost like loading your roster with lefthanded corner outfielders is a bad idea.
  15. DJL44
    What other MLB organization is dumb enough to be fooled by a small sample size hot month from Outman?
  16. DJL44
    If they aren’t going to play him they should trade him. There are plenty of needs at other positions. Better than wasting his productive years in AAA.
  17. DJL44
    If nobody is interested in trading for Alex Jackson today it is quite possible that he slips through waivers. They will make the move on Wednesday when everyone else is trying to finalize their 26-player roster so nobody can add him and then waive him later.
  18. DJL44
    Good relievers make really nice trade bait at the deadline. A bar Outman has failed to clear in two consecutive seasons.
  19. DJL44
    I hear they're interested in a player named Cash Considerations.
  20. DJL44
    I think it means they're still looking for a trade partner for Alex Jackson.
  21. DJL44
    I will bet everything that Outman doesn't get to 30 steals. Over the last two seasons he had 38 hits and 28 walks. Out of those hits, 20 of them were for extra bases. That leaves 46 times when he was on first base. He stole 3 bases in those 46 opportunities. To steal 30 bases at that rate, he would need to get on base 460 times. I'd say Outman is a potential 3 steal guy. I think I'd bet against anyone getting 30 steals, but the other guys should at least be in the 20s.
  22. DJL44
    I am actually shocked at how healthy the team appears to be going into Opening Day. That won't last two weeks into April.
  23. DJL44
    They can't have Outman AND Kreidler on the roster together, can they? That's two bench players you would never want to actually use.
  24. DJL44
    I think he will pinch hit for Larnach when Larnach is the DH. I wouldn't worry about losing the DH if they use him as a pinch hitter in the 8th or 9th.
  25. DJL44
    I think it's great that Kody looks like he'll have some success but it's pretty disappointing for the organization if Kody is their best reliever. He's not that great, probably the worst "best reliever" for any team in baseball. He's also nearly 30 years old, so he's probably trade bait at the deadline if he continues his success. All success in baseball is ephemeral, but Kody might be a one-year wonder.
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