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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. Correa's production is quite valuable to the Twins but he doesn't have a lot of excess value once you subtract the value of what he gets paid. That's why other players end up higher than Correa. I'm pretty certain you couldn't get a team to give you a top 100 prospect in return for Correa in a trade.
  2. They have more relievers than they can fit on the roster already. Why would they trade their starting catcher for an expensive relief pitcher? If they want an expensive reliever they can just sign one as a free agent.
  3. Buxton belongs on the list instead of Julien. I would have Andrew Morris on instead of Raya. Festa should be just below Jax and Duran. Move Jeffers and Correa ahead of Zebby Matthews. The rest are close enough that I don't care. Walker Jenkins, CF Royce Lewis, 3B/2B Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Pablo López, RHP Brooks Lee, SS/2B/3B Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF Matt Wallner, RF Griffin Jax, RHP Jhoan Durán, RHP David Festa, RHP Ryan Jeffers, C Carlos Correa, SS Byron Buxton, CF Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Zebby Matthews, RHP Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF Trevor Larnach, LF José Miranda, 3B/1B Andrew Morris, RHP
  4. Is that the most embarrassing professional photo you've ever seen? It looks like it was taken when he had to be at the gym at 5:30am.
  5. Please let this turn into a feud
  6. Berrios would have walked as a free agent and freed up that money all by himself.
  7. Not for a team out of contention. A quality player on a losing team has little value.
  8. Disagree strongly. They have zero younger, cheaper players who are likely to produce the same as can be expected from Willi Castro.
  9. True, but the point of the season isn't to maximize Paddack's trade value. They need to win as many games as possible on a $130M budget. Keeping Paddack in the rotation means you can't use Festa in the rotation and Festa has potential to be better than Paddack. It also means you have to trade someone like Willi Castro to hit the budget target and that's going to make the 2025 team worse overall. I'll put it another way. If Chris Paddack was a free agent, would anyone here be advocating the Twins sign him to a $7.5M contract? I think that answer is clearly no. If they can dump him for nothing they should absolutely do that.
  10. Pitchers don't usually get the big bonuses at age 16 but it is absolutely critical the Twins do a better job at finding and developing international free agent pitching talent.
  11. Impossible to tell without knowing what the 29 other teams did.
  12. The advantage a team has getting Paddack is the player can't say "no" like a free agent can. The Twins may have to take some salary back in the deal but that might not be awful. Paddack for a veteran reliever making $2.5M would be a small downgrade in the bullpen but save $5M.
  13. I would rather trade for SWR than Zebby. SWR clearly has the higher floor, showing he can be reasonably effective over the course of an entire season. Zebby got lit up in his debut and has a lot to work on. The ceiling might be similar for each, but SWR probably has more potential to add velocity (projectability).
  14. I don't get why Matthews would rate higher than Woods-Richardson. They're basically the same age but SWR has actually had MLB success.
  15. Sorry, net positive value. He's worth what he's paid but there's no bonus value on top of that.
  16. He's also really young, just 24 in 2025. There's more room for upside with SWR than there is for Miranda or Julien just due to age.
  17. And yet they're middle of the pack in stolen bases allowed (0.7 per game). If the Twins "don't control the running game" then the only team in MLB who does is Kansas City.
  18. His arbitration projection is $4.5M to $5M for this season. I think they could get him to sign 5/7/9/9. Jeffers would be risking about $6M to guarantee $25M.
  19. He's going to burn a half season and his last option making the adjustments, if he can. He's also working his way down the defensive spectrum toward 1B which means he has to really hit to contribute.
  20. No, as @chpettit19 pointed out elsewhere, Julien can't hit breaking balls. He got away with not swinging at them in the minors but they figured him out in the big leagues.
  21. 2024: 17% caught stealing vs league average of 21%. 59 stolen bases and 12 caught stealing in 720 innings. That's 3 extra bases allowed in 720 innings compared to an average MLB catcher. That is approximately 1 extra stolen base allowed every 25 games. If you double his stolen bases allowed to 118 to account for playing 1/2 of the games and compare to MLB teams, that would rank just slightly better than average (3617 bases stolen by 30 teams = 120.5 per team). Over his career he's been better than 2024, only 7 extra stolen bases in 301 games worth of catching or one every 43 games. Your statement is directly contradicted by the data.
  22. They should absolutely be looking to extend Jeffers. This offseason is their last chance to buy out free agency seasons at a discount. Even if they want to trade him later, they should be looking to extend him now to increase his value as a trade asset.
  23. Julien's value is all about 2025-26. He's in the prime of his career and he looked bad last season. Not enough bat or glove to make the roster. Raya is a "going forward" kind of player. Miranda and Julien are "now or never".
  24. Talk is cheap. Julien shouldn't be on the 26-man roster to start the season and Miranda has shown so much unique and special ability that he's the one guy the GM is trying to replace in free agency.
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