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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Louie Varland - double the upside, double the stuff, double the ERA... wait a minute
  2. DJL44
    That seems pretty cynical about a pitcher who is about to turn 25. He still has time to improve.
  3. DJL44
    Those awful numbers are his 2024 performance AS A RELIEVER. Varland was moved to the bullpen halfway through the season. In 40 innings of relief work he was terrible. He absolutely got the chance to make his stuff play up in shorter stints - his K rate went up - but he was VERY hittable, and the overall results were just plain bad.
  4. DJL44
    Leaving this here as well, because it is relevant to the #1 reason the Twins will have an elite bullpen as listed in the article Louie Varland's relief splits from 2024 MLB 9.87 ERA, 1.673 WHIP .859 OPS against (17.1 IP) AAA 7.66 ERA 1.433 WHIP .740 OPS against (22.1 IP)
  5. DJL44
    Varland's relief splits were lousy last year. MLB 9.87 ERA, 1.673 WHIP .859 OPS against (17.1 IP) AAA 7.66 ERA 1.433 WHIP .740 OPS against (22.1 IP) That's the kind of pitcher you DFA, not the kind you put in a high leverage bullpen situation.
  6. DJL44
    This is true. I think it is quite possible the Twins trade from their reliever stockpile to acquire a position player.
  7. DJL44
    Varland was clearly worse than Henriquez in 2024. We'll see about 2025.
  8. DJL44
    My reasons why the Twins bullpen could be very good 1) Depth. They have 14 relievers on the 40-man roster who could contribute. None of them look terrible. Returns to health for Topa and Stewart would be quite helpful. 2) They cut ties with Caleb Thielbar. To help Rocco manage the bullpen they have to take away the poor performers. He can't help himself with the platoons even when the platoon player is lousy. 3) Jhoan Duran can pitch better than he did in 2024. He's capable of much more if he refines his location and they improve his pitch sequencing.
  9. DJL44
    I don't see Canterino as an option until at least a few months into the season. He hasn't pitched in 2 years and has never pitched above Double-A. Start him in AAA and see if he can do the job. He needs to prove he can be both effective and available to pitch.
  10. DJL44
    Henriquez was on the 40-man roster the whole year. That's why he's out of options. I agree that there has been a lot of hype around Louie Varland but he's 3 years older than Henriquez and was less effective than Henriquez last season. Varland had a very bad 2024 which is why it is puzzling to see him in this article as a reason why the Twins bullpen could be elite.
  11. DJL44
    Moderately effective at 24 and still has some untapped upside potential.
  12. DJL44
    FWIW - Varland was outpitched last season by Ronny Henriquez both in AAA and MLB.
  13. DJL44
    They're very deep. Varland doesn't look like he will make the roster out of spring training.
  14. DJL44
    Who will Keirsey platoon with? Not Larnach, Wallner or Castro. I suppose you could do a platoon with Austin Martin. Yuck.
  15. DJL44
    That's pretty dismissive of everyone else. There are future All-Stars and possibly future Hall of Famers in this class of amateurs.
  16. DJL44
    They aren't going to platoon Buxton. When he's injured (hence the long-term need) they'll bring up Rodriguez.
  17. DJL44
    I wouldn't be so sure about that. Eventually the musical chairs will stop and someone will be left without a roster spot.
  18. DJL44
    First five weeks, maybe. If it's in the first 5 games then it's probably Paddack who is injured.
  19. DJL44
    But the 10th-11th starter will get like 5 games. Is it worth $7.5M to make sure Marco Raya or Travis Adams don't get 5 starts combined in 2025? There is downside to giving 20 starts to a pitcher with a 4.90 ERA (Paddack's ERA over the past 5 MLB seasons) to avoid giving 5 starts to a pitcher with a 6.00 ERA.
  20. DJL44
    Thank you for the reminder that the Twins front office hibernates with TC Bear until TwinsFest.
  21. DJL44
    I don't think Paddack is needed in the bullpen. Losing him might actually make the team better by subtraction. You're talking about a pitcher who has a total of 0.2 WAR and ERA of 4.90 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 3 WAR hit to the team. They're already one bat short. They can't afford to lose another.
  22. DJL44
    Still, there are at least 3 relievers who look like they'll end up in AAA who could reasonably be expected to be as good as Paddack in the bullpen. $7.5M is a lot to pay for your 10th best reliever. To justify that salary for the Twins he needs to be an All-Star closer. Similarly, I want Festa to get April starts instead of Paddack because I would rather invest those innings in Festa. Paddack's my 10th choice for the bullpen and my 6th choice for the rotation which makes him quite expendable. They have the depth to make it through the season without him.
  23. DJL44
    The Twins would rank #2 in LF and #2 at DH in your spreadsheet if you swap Larnach and Castro. Castro has the 4th highest 2024 fWAR out of everyone you listed (Kwan, Greene, Buxton, Castro). Looking at the other article, Castro would rank #1 at 2B in the division and that's probably the answer. He'd be a certain starter in the infield for the Twins either at 2B or 3B.
  24. DJL44
    I think Emmanuel Rodriguez is already more likely to get a callup than Keirsey if there is a long-term need in the outfield.
  25. DJL44
    It might be Paddack. He'll be the 5th starter if they keep him but he might be blocking better pitchers. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Paddack, Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis
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