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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Edouard Julien fits the profile of a bat-first prospect who should be moved to 1B to get him to the majors faster. Julien is NEVER going to be at the top of the depth chart defensively at 2B. If he can find his way back to a 130 OPS+ that will be enough bat for the position.
  2. DJL44
    I'll go with Cartaya as most likely to make the Opening Day roster, but it would be due to an injury to one of the catchers in front of him on the depth chart.
  3. DJL44
    I'll take the under on the predictions. Every year the prospects are going to come in and make everything better. Every year the prospects come in, most of them fail or struggle when they first see MLB and they have to go back to the minors to work on the flaws that have been exposed at the highest level. Here's my 5 predictions Cory Lewis - has a middling year at AAA, 30% chance he gets injured again Marco Raya - continues to struggle to provide enough innings in the rotation, gets transitioned to the bullpen in 2027 when he only has one option year remaining Andrew Morris - gets a few starts this year and has an ERA around 5. Needs to improve his offspeed pitch to find a spot in the rotation long-term. Tries a few different changes to his offspeed offerings in AAA before he finds one that is successful. Luke Keaschall - keeps working on his hitting and progresses to the point where he gets a callup in September. Continues to struggle to find a defensive position where he can provide value. Emmanuel Rodriguez - Gets his callup and is hot for about a month before MLB pitchers figure out a strategy that gets him out consistently. Goes back to AAA to rework his approach. Comes back to MLB and is just okay at the plate. Plays pretty good defense through all of this. We all hope he can contribute more in 2026.
  4. DJL44
    I hope so. It seems like they need to see 400 plate appearances of bad performance to believe someone isn't good anymore. With France, he has a track record of 2 full years of sub-par performance to go on. If he has a .700 OPS at the end of April, then that's who he is. They don't have to wait until August.
  5. DJL44
    He can be a good value for $1M and still be a below average player who helps you lose ballgames if you give him 500 plate appearances.
  6. DJL44
    The projections have them at basically the same offense. If you make that substitution, you likely get the same offense, less defense and $6M but they still need another outfielder. I think people would be happier if they had been able to dump Paddack and spent $13M on a better outfielder like Tyler O'Neill. I believe many people think the #1 problem to solve was offense, but after losing Kepler the Twins were looking at lousy outfield defense whenever Buxton was unable to play CF. They signed the best defensive CF available on the free agent market and they signed him for less than the conventional wisdom believed he would get (1/$10M was the crowd sourced number on Fangraphs). They needed defense and they went out and got it. On paper he's a good value signing. Max Kepler got 2yr/$22M to provide the same projected value. I see people lumping Castro in with the players they should get rid of so they can afford a really good player. The problem with that is Castro is likely to provide much more value than he's getting paid. You can't replace his production for 1yr/$6M on the free agent market. Yes, they are filling holes with free agents because they haven't developed enough talent to fill all the holes internally. Filling the MLB roster with AAA talent just because it is cheap won't help make them better. I'm 100% on-board with giving opportunities to their top prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall but playing guys like Helman and Keirsey and Gasper thinking you will somehow develop them into a starter is a fool's bet. I think there will still be plenty of innings for Keaschall and Rodriguez.
  7. DJL44
    All they seem to be good at is developing pitching by adding velocity and teaching a slider. That's a decent thing to be good at but it's not enough. Being better than everyone else at something is really hard. That's why having more money than other teams is a consistent advantage.
  8. DJL44
    I think teams should lean into what they are good at. The Twins don't have the $$ to be good at everything. If they're good at identifying and developing pitching and outfielders, then that's what they should do. They do need to be able to trade some of those pitchers and outfielders for talent at other positions to balance out the roster.
  9. DJL44
    That's going to be really difficult. If it was easy to develop catchers, then there would be a lot more options available in free agency. There aren't that many people who can hit major league pitching AND have a low pop time to 2B.
  10. DJL44
    If you want pre and post game you can turn on the radio.
  11. DJL44
    It really doesn't make sense to hoard prospects if this is the strategy. Why add marginal pitching prospects like Travis Adams to the 40-man if you're never going to let them pitch because you have Tonkin and Topa and Couloumbe? Why carry Mickey Gasper if you're going to add Ty France later?
  12. DJL44
  13. DJL44
    Making decisions based on spring training statistics is usually a bad idea. If you think Julien and Miranda were going to lollygag around spring training but are spurred into maximum effort now that Ty France is around, you're nuts.
  14. DJL44
    This is one of those signings that is low upside, high downside. France was available last season for league minimum off the waiver wire. There is no reason to give him a guaranteed contract. I think I'd rather give Mickey Gasper the playing time. Really hoping he gets cut before the season begins.
  15. DJL44
    Yeah, if you want a MLB minimum CF with a good glove he's going to project to a 65 OPS+.
  16. DJL44
    The arbitration process already pays out if they work like crazy and perform well.
  17. DJL44
    Jeffers may be "just a guy" but extending him wouldn't be terribly expensive and the Twins don't have any other "guys" in the minors at catcher. It's either buy another season of Jeffers or buy another Christian Vazquez out of free agency. I'd rather buy Jeffers. Duran was not mentioned, he's young enough and good enough that an extension makes sense. He hasn't made much money so far which means he might value the guaranteed money that comes with a 4-year deal. That still allows him to go on the free agent market at age 31. I am not keen on paying top dollar for pitchers in their mid-30s. The Twins would probably be better off if they offer Ryan and Ober the QO instead of giving them a contract extension.
  18. DJL44
    Michael A Taylor is still available. Christian Pache signed a minor league contract.
  19. DJL44
    Santana was the best pitcher in baseball in 2004 & 2006, 2nd best in 2008, top 5 in 2005, three additional All-Star level seasons. Koufax was the best pitcher in 1963, 2nd to Marichal in 1965-66, top 5 in 1964, two additional All-Star level seasons. Santana's run of greatness is actually longer than Koufax. Postseason accomplishments are great, but it's still just 57 innings of Koufax's career. BTW - Santana had 20 really great postseason innings in 2004 and 2006 when he was the best pitcher in the league.
  20. DJL44
    Thanks for that malapropism
  21. DJL44
    Are they also in the best physical shape of their lives?
  22. DJL44
    Eventually they run out of lockers
  23. DJL44
    There are surprisingly a lot of free agent starting pitchers still on the market (Pivetta, Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Quantrill) which can't help them with trading Paddack. At this point, teams are going to want to make sure players are able to play in spring training before they make a deal.
  24. DJL44
    Please name one source inside baseball who has rated Keirsey's defense as elite - either on the Twins or a scout on another team. I'll wait.
  25. DJL44
    I will say that Santana is so clearly better than Joe Nathan that it is utterly ridiculous to think Joe Nathan should be inducted and not Johan Santana. They played on the same team for several years and Santana was ALWAYS the better pitcher in each and every one of those seasons. The only seasons Joe Nathan had that were better than Santana's were 1999 before Santana was in the majors and 2012-13 because Santana was out of baseball. In a head-to-head matchup it is not even close.
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