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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I hope not. Festa has never been able to handle the innings needed for a starter. 2022 103.2 IP 2023 92.1 IP 2024 124.2 IP 2025 84.2 IP There there's his 1st and 2nd time through the order stats 1st time 206 PA .166/.218/.280 56K 11BB 2nd time 203 PA .301/.386/.523 50K 22BB Do you want 60 great innings out of Festa or 100 mediocre innings?
  2. DJL44
    League batting average is around .240 now. It was .270 thirty years ago.
  3. DJL44
    Then Wallner should have a great season. I don't expect the Twins to generate many high leverage situations in 2026.
  4. DJL44
    I think PECOTA has him figured out pretty well. Batting average between .210 and .230 is likely. I don't think he has impact player upside, but a .760 OPS with okay defense is playable.
  5. DJL44
    Possibly correct, but 2 fewer wins means their chances of making the playoffs drop below 20%. Their plan for making the playoffs was "everything needs to go right". They didn't have any margin. I don't think they should add another starting pitcher by trade. I would gladly accept a trade for a shortstop. A shortstop who can play plus defense would lower the runs allowed for all pitchers on the team.
  6. DJL44
    The Twins have a remarkably old and experienced bullpen. That should be helpful for Hawkins in his first season as a coach.
  7. DJL44
    The Twins front office is on record that they believe Keaschall is an All-Star talent. I am skeptical but if they really believe it they should lock him up now until he’s 30. Taj Bradley might be another to consider. Walker Jenkins is an obvious one. Pre-arbitration players aren’t going to have a long track record, but that’s also why they can afford the contract. If you want “proven” talent you pay more, and then they still risk injury.
  8. DJL44
    It would be smarter to offer contract extensions to their pre-arbitration players
  9. DJL44
    Stop sharing revenue that comes from attendance. Then there is an incentive to field a competitive team.
  10. DJL44
    A salary cap without changes to revenue sharing is pointless. Changes to revenue sharing are needed.
  11. DJL44
    Love the Twin Cities uniforms. Hate the city connect uniforms. The rest are okay. I like MINNESOTA across the chest on the road uniforms rather than TWINS. TC logo is much better than the M* logo.
  12. DJL44
    Tauchman had to settle for a minor league contract. Kepler is unemployed, maybe he will end up with the Royals.
  13. DJL44
    I understand why the average number of wins would go down by 1.5, but the 90th percentile projection should go down by more than that. That upside projection is what gets them into the playoffs. They have a 0% chance at making the playoffs with 78-79 wins.
  14. DJL44
    Trades can still happen, but we are in spring training. It’s the preseason, not the offseason.
  15. DJL44
    Fangraphs dropped their win expectations by 1.5 wins due to the injury. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez is worth that little to the Twins. If they actually made the playoffs, it would be partly due to Pablo Lopez leading the rotation with a 4-5 win season. There are two options here: a) Pablo Lopez is only a 1.5 WAR projected pitcher. Fangraphs doesn't think he's likely to be good for a whole season. b) Mick Abel is a 3 WAR pitcher and he was being blocked by Pablo. Otherwise, if you project Pablo as a 3 WAR pitcher and subtract 3 wins for his injury, that puts the Twins win projection at 77. With 77 wins, the playoff odds decrease from 31.7% down to somewhere below 20%. Regardless, Fangraphs currently has the Twins as the #22 team in their rankings - below the Reds and the Athletics. It thinks the Rays are a stronger team, but the Twins have a better playoff chance due to their weak division.
  16. DJL44
    15-inning 1-0 games.
  17. DJL44
    Pitchers and catchers reported. It's done.
  18. DJL44
    I'm sure they can get Pablo to come back when he's washed up and the rest of the league isn't interested anymore, just like they did with Taylor Rogers.
  19. DJL44
    The Twins only chance is for MLB to change the rules to discourage the big revenue teams from making big revenues? That's not going to happen. They might have a chance at some reform if it is tied to expansion, but MLB does better when the Dodgers and Yankees win.
  20. DJL44
    The other option seems to be guys who are unusable against RHB and LHB - like Travis Adams.
  21. DJL44
    I don't know if there are five teams who would claim him for the waiver fee.
  22. DJL44
    I wonder if a slightly heavier ball would help. It would prevent home runs and put more balls in play.
  23. DJL44
    Why would we want Adams in the bullpen when we could use Festa instead? I'm not super worried right now about having 4 lefties in the bullpen. They're all better pitchers than the next available AAA reliever. Plus, odds are high one of them will be injured at any given time. Always plan that one of your top 8 relievers will be on the injured list. If Hendriks is worth keeping, then he probably shares the closer role with Rogers.
  24. DJL44
    Which position players are huge question marks? Keaschall is the only one we don't know about. The rest are mostly proven commodities. Are they going to learn anything about James Outman, Kody Clemens or Tristan Gray?
  25. DJL44
    80-82 is out of the playoffs. They don't hang 3rd place pennants at Target Field. But that's a false equivalence. Trading Joe Ryan is the difference between 74-88 and 69-93. He's not worth 20 wins on his own. Are you a huge fan of 74-88? That's a team that is irrelevant from May to September. It's not a terrible idea. Adding Giolito gives them something else to trade away in July. Buy low, sell high.
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