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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    You are contradicting yourself. You have concluded revenue is a great indicator or success. Then, you conclude that the practices of the most successful small market teams have led to lower attendance and reduced revenue. This is contradictory. Is it not? If you think I am treating revenue as an independent variable, you are not understand the basic purpose of the exercise. I am sure you agree that it does not make sense to evaluate the acquisition methods of teams with grouping them in terms of revenue potential. In other words, it would be expected for markets with 2X the revenue potential to utilize different acquisition and retention practices. When we do this, the data for acquisition methods is crystal clear for anyone that cares to look. I would bet the vast majority never bother to look because they would prefer to believe whatever form of logics supports their predisposed opinion. The basic flaw in your position (IMO) is that a market like LA or NY simply has far greater capacity to produce income. The twins can win 100 games every year and retaion every player and they are still going to produce half the revenue of the top markets. IDK if continuity of roster is more important to revenue production than winning but I doubt it. What I know without a shadow of doubt is that over the last 20 years, trading for prospects has had far more impact on winning than trading for established players. Is your argument really revenue? Do you care more about revenue than winning? You are opposing hard fact because you would prefer practices that are not supported by the facts. I have approached this in a completely unbiased way. I wondered based on posts I saw here what acquisition method was most effective. I took the time to look at most of the small and mid market playoff teams for the last 20 years because I wanted to know fact vs opinion. I am simply reporting what has happened. In other words, what has been most effective and the facts are very clear.
  2. Major League Ready
    Actually, there were three teams outside the top 10 in revenue that won the WS in the early 2000s. In the past 18 years since that period, only one team in that revenue segment has won the WS. Therefore, the odds are not 18:1. There are 20 teams outside the top 10. Therefore, the odds of one of those 20 teams winning is 20X18 or once every 360 years. Those teams are making more money for the small market teams and they are making a lot more money for the players. Who is going to initiate change that diminishes the income of the teams and the players?
  3. Major League Ready
    I did not intend to move the goal posts. Some have suggested a package with Julien. I did state earlier that I don't believe the Brewers trading Burnes without getting a high probability prospect and I don't think you believe that either. We can discuss trading guys that won't get it done but what's the point. Therefore, I am speaking conceptually of a package that would land Burnes. Revenue is a crucial component to any discussion of how a team is built. Significant incremental revenue changes what a team can and can't do so to ignore revenue in a discussion of how players were acquired and successful teams built would be ignorant.
  4. Major League Ready
    I simply don't agree and neither do the Tampa Bat Rays. Obviously, if the prospects flame out there is no problem. If one of those players like Prelipp lives up to his potential, you have lost an important player for 6-7 years. Can you survive it? Sure. However, the team is definitely worse off for several years if a prospect like Prelipp pans out and some here suggest Julien plus a couple good prospects. How many more wins is Burnes good for over Julien. Maybe two wins for one year. What about the other 5 years we would get from Julien? History provides the proof of concept and trading for prospects has been far more effective than trading for established players. Rentals have had very little impact.
  5. Major League Ready
    I wouldn't dispute the Royals ponied up for Zobrist but do you think he made the difference in them winning the WS. He did not matter during the regular season and the Royals won the WS 4-1. Was trading for Zobrist responsible for them winning the WS? I really don't think it mattered. Do we want the Twins to follow what Miami did? I want to watch a good product every year. I watch 100+ games/year, every year. I want them to give me a good product most years and short-term strategies do not facilitate that goal. Three-quarters or more of WS winners going forward are going to come from top 10 revenue teams. That means that the bottom 20 teams will win a WS every 80 years if they are average among those 20 teams. Sacrificing sustained success given this reality does not make sense to me but we all have different desires. I prefer strategies that get me to the playoffs as often as possible vs pushing chips in to improve odds (maybe) in the short-term.
  6. Major League Ready
    The history in this case is that one team in the bottom two-thirds of revenue has won a Championship since the early 2000s. That would be the Royals. The acquisition method for their top WAR players is below. The short-term move the made did not get them a Championship. He (Shields was already gone). Of course, Davis was prominent on that team but he was a mediocre player that blossomed when converted to a RP. They had one rental in Zobrist but I would not say he was essential to them winning the WS. Even if he was, he represents a much smaller investment in prospect capital. The trade most responsible for this team's success was trading away a great established player in Grienke for Cain and Escobar. Did the White Sox have any rental in 2005? I don't think they did. The 2003 Marlins did some wheeling and dealing so maybe you could make a case their short-term approach worked but I see very little in terms of examples of rentals playing a big part in winning championships for teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue. I can however list many examples of players acquired for rentals that contributed to long-term success.
  7. Major League Ready
    I am assuming the cost for Burnes will hurt. Milwaukee is not trading Burnes for anyone that does not have a high probability of helping them for 6-7 years. I think that type of short-term focus is very poor asset management. Those low-cost high producing assets are prerequisites to success for modest revenue teams. We just disagree which is fine. Again, I look at the facts (history) and they are overwhelming. If we were to do a risk profile, there are many other uncertainties with this team. Betting a lot on one year is reckless.
  8. Major League Ready
    It's not just the Rays. Cleveland and Oakland have done the same thing. Those 3 franchises have far more 90 win seasons over the past 25 years than all of the other teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue and they are near the very bottom in terms of revenue. The Twins would have an advantage over these teams If they could follow this model with the same degree of success. The Twins have a modest amount of incremental revenue that could be spent to extend key players. Yes, all of those teams have extended players but the twins could extend an extra player or two.
  9. Major League Ready
    Building depth in a farm system enables trading of some of those assets. I would never argue it should not be done. What I will argue having studied how top players were acquired for literally every playoff team outside the top 10 in revenue for the last 25 years, is that trading for prospects is FAR more important than trading prospects for established players. The strategy of building assets in this way enables the trading of SOME prospects while sustaining success. I have outlined how easy it is to look up any team from the past and determine how it was constructed. I doubt anyone actually takes the time to look but anyone who does so will not argue this point because the facts are overwhelming.
  10. Major League Ready
    If the team is as bad off as you suggest .... The right move would be to go into full rebuild mode. BTW .... I don't know how much more you could ask for from 1st year players at 2B and 3B. Producing players like Lewis and Julien is the most essential aspect of building a winning team so to paint them as question marks is silly. We could say Correa is a question mark after last season. If you are looking for guarantees, you have chosen the wrong sport. If you want a team that can fill holes with elite free agents, you need to become a Dodger fan.
  11. Major League Ready
    Broadcasting rights have absolutely nothing to do with revenue sharing. They could split the revenue anyway they please under the existing system. The Dodgers / Yankees, etc are a business worth billions. Redistributing that income going forward would drastically reduce the value of their franchises. Why in the world would they agree? It's just slightly more likely than Jeff Bezos agree to share their massive revenue with less fortunate competitors. The only way this happens is if the revenue disparity kills the rest of the league. BTW ... when the luxury tax threshold was being discussed during the last CBA, there were very few people here who stood up and said they hope the owners don't give in on increasing the level of disparity. The players actually started out pushing for less revenue sharing. Why, because teams like the Dodgers can go wild and their mistakes won't cripple them. The top revenue teams are therefore more inclined to take a giant leap. (See Ohtani / Yamamoto) The players also pushed hard for increasing the luxury tax threshold. Should we expect them to care more about parity than earning the most dollars possible. The players want that revenue advantage in the largest markets and it's also too the benefit of the league in general to put the stars in the largest markets.
  12. Major League Ready
    Have you asked yourself why other teams with similar revenue NEVER trade away premium assets for a player with 1 year of control. Actually, they do just the opposite. They trade away this type of player most of the time in order to sustain the team beyond a given year. The answer is that it's extremely short-term focused and makes it very difficult to sustain success. Anyone could throw in all the chips to give a team a good chance at short-term success. Go to Fangraphs. Pull up any 90 win team outside the top third in revenue. The players will be organized by WAR in the standard view. Then, pick a level of WAR that you think is a significant player. (I use 1.5 WAR). Then, use BB Reference to determine how that player was acquired if you don't know. You will find that trades for prospects or players that have made the ML level but have not yet produced 1.5 WAR are far more prevalent than trading for established players. The example below is the 100 win 2021 Tampa Bay Rays. 45% of the WAR produced from players producing 1.5 WAR or more were acquired by trading for prospects/unproven players. 25% came from players they drafted. The only trade they made for a proven player was the fleecing they gave the Pirates known as Tyler Glasnow and Austin Hedges. Glasnow produced 2.6 WAR that year.
  13. Major League Ready
    I am not sure what is the best solution but this is an enormous opportunity to increase access to the game. MLB hired a group of heavy hitters with the right background to find a solution. I would think they have developed a framework with the type of accessibility Ashbury outlined. I think this is going to be a good thing that could take a couple years to fully unfold.
  14. Major League Ready
    1. Because the big market teams are going to outbid the twins on Snell and Montgomery. 2. The Mariners might not be willing to part with the young/cost controlled SPs. 3. The players/prospects capital going back will reflect the point you are making and we won't have to give up a premium prospect.
  15. Major League Ready
    You have to believe Seattle wants to hold onto their young pitching. I noticed they have a lot of prospects in their top 20 that are not projected to reach the majors until 26-27. Will they try to trade these prospects and hang on to their pitching? Those assets look pretty good to a rebuilding team. Trading Ray or Castillo also has to be more appealing to them as well. Would a team like Baltimore just entering what should be a wide window be interested in Ray? Castillo has been great but the failure rate for guys this age is also quite high. See Ray, Rodon, Mahle, etc. Yet, Castillo is really tempting if Polanco and Kepler were the primary assets back from the Twins.
  16. Major League Ready
    IDK Volpe would be that attractive to the marlins. They are looking for offense. Volpe had a wRC+ of 84. Julien's was 136. Julien was the grossly superior offense player last year. Perhaps the people making these decisions believe he will rebound offensively. Volpe has 1.9 WAR playing 159 games. Julien 2.8 in 109 games. Of course, the Marlins are looking for a SS which makes Volpe a better fit in terms of position but he probably would not improve their offense.
  17. Major League Ready
    Has someone from the FO actually made this statement or is it the stated goal of TD posters? I am not saying it should not be the goal but has the FO actually taken a stance? I am curious because that would narrow down the possibilities.
  18. Major League Ready
    1) They had a .537 win percentage last year. They had .600 and .623 in 2020 and 2019. Winning one playoff series does not make last year's 87 win team something special. 2) The players that the Royals and Tigers picked up would not move the needle on this team so what's the point. You also fail to mention that even with these additions the Tiger's and Royal's payrolls are $20M less than the Twins. 3) The trade market is just now developing. Therefore, the most compelling options simply are not available yet. Did you want them to make a bad trade in order to get it done early? What's the benefit of making a trade in December vs February? 4) Why would you be convinced of anything in December? If we were to form any opinion at all wouldn't it make sense to examine how this front office has navigated previous off-seasons? They traded for Lopez on Jan 20th and made several moves after that transaction last year so why would you conclude nothing is going to happen?
  19. Major League Ready
    This is really interesting. My hesitation would be that the Jays don't do this deal unless they think Manoah is unlikely to rebound. Do our guys know better than their guys? They are much closer to the situation. The optimist in me loves the idea / upside of this proposed trade. The realist says this probably does not end well. I guess my inclination is the same as Nicks in that a deal with Seattle or Miami is preferable.
  20. Major League Ready
    Exceptionally good point! There is a very important lesson to be learned in these facts.
  21. Major League Ready
    Your skepticism is warranted given this is the Pirates we are talking about. However, the Pirates payroll projection is only $50M. With Kepler being a one-year deal and Polanco having a team option in 2025, this is not a big spend, even for the Pirates.
  22. Major League Ready
    Fangraphs shows a 50 FV and He has a 70 rating on his curveball. Sands has a 35+ FV and he is a RP vs a starter so I don't see Sands as a comp.
  23. Major League Ready
    Why wouldn't the Twins be looking ahead? This is the type of trade that can impact a team for several years. Let's hope the Twins FO is short-term focused that they would overlook a player that could be a big contributor for several years because their only focused on players with an immediate impact.
  24. Major League Ready
    There were a few of us that took the position that the 22 team was not worthy of the level of investment they made so it's not hind sight to take this position now. It was an unpopular position. Most took an adamant stance that "we were in 1st place". Some of us said so what ... we are in 1st because of a very weak division not because we had a team that could contend. If you look at the teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue that have been successful, they have done so by taking advantage of the premium paid for immediate gain. Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland have managed assets in this manner for two decades. More recently, Cincinatti and Baltimore have played the long game and those teams are in a great position today. One of the writers here (I don't remember who) did a piece on SGL. There were people that believed in him and we don't even know that it would have been necessary to put him on the 40 man at the time. Steer and CES were definitely players that would have been put on the 40 man at the end of 2022.
  25. Major League Ready
    Good call! If you look back at any 90+ win team from markets in the bottom two-thirds of revenue, this type of trade is far more prevalent than trading for well-established players and it's not remotely close. Strategies that favor the immediate are far more preferrable to most fans but history will reveal (if one bothers to look) the long-term strategies applied by the Ray's, Guardians, and Athletics are more effective in building winning teams. Some of those teams produced as much WAR from players acquired as prospects as players they drafted. The 22 trade deadline is a good example. We would be in a far superior position if we had Steer, CES, and Gibson-Long. Cincinatti is moving Steer to LF. He would provide depth and L/R balance. Wallner would move to right and Larnach is depth. CES could provide a very big tick or he would be very attractive as part of the offering for a top of the rotation arm. IDK how good SGL will be but his debut went well and we could use the SP depth. We invested these assets and more in a short-term strategy for a team that never had a chance. This is obviously not a popular view but it's hard to argue given the results in 22 and the present state of the prospects involved.
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