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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Let's look at it this way. The hypothesis is pretty straight forward given the argument is that keeping the payroll around 2023 levels would result in a higher valuation of the team. How are we going to prove this specific assertion. We would have to find enough data points of this specific set of circumstances. Plus, we would have to have valid examples of valuation. We don't have actual sales of organizations which would be the best indicator. We have valuations based on partial information. A valid valuation would at a minimum require a very accurate accounting of profitability. The people producing those valuations certainly do not have this information. Valuations are primarily driven by net profitability and the certainty of future profits. The premise that investing those profits in personnel will drive up the valuation contradicts the fundamentals of valuation. If the only way fans are satisfied is by the team investing all of their profits in personnel, the team has virtually no value when they are successful on the field. The only time they would be profitable is when they were losing. Of course, we can make a case for an investment in a single year which is an entirely different argument. I think we would all like to see them eat it this year and that might have happened if not for what happened in 2020-21
  2. Major League Ready
    Very odd response given I did not offer a personal opinion. I asked if you had read any of the numerous articles from well-known outlets which contradicted your position. Are they dumb. There are only two possibilities. One is that our FO and all of these baseball writers are clueless. The other is that you have an understanding superior to all of them. I guess that's basically the same thing so there is only one possibility. How is it possible you don't have a GM job.
  3. Major League Ready
    He would primarily be a DH and start some against LHP.
  4. Major League Ready
    I was on the fence with Soler but you guys have me convinced. He is probably the best fit left out there. The Twins are at 114M right now so he would put them at $130 which is within the range we have heard. Don't think Duvall is a good fit because he does not hit LHP any better than RHP. Merrifield makes no sense. We don't need to say money to fill multiple roles or add a BP piece. Let's get one guy who can make an impact. We have a lot of BP depth at this point.
  5. Major League Ready
    How are you going to validate your assumption? If I recommended a client spend $30M as an example, I would need very solid basis / validation for that recommendation if I ever wanted to work for that client again.
  6. Major League Ready
    Anyone know how the money transfers? The Giants agreed to pay the Mariners $6M who then agreed to pay the Twins $8M. Can the twins keep the $8M if they find someone to take DeSclafani with his entire $12M salary? I recognize that probably would not happen. Just trying to understand our options.
  7. Major League Ready
    This is an interesting point. It is possible they use whatever figure they arrive at this year as a minimum expectation. They have Kepler coming off this year. Vazquez / Paddack and Castro after 2025. Perhaps they trade Castro at some point. Point being, they could sign someone to a multi year deal with the risk being they would be handcuffed if the TV revenue continues to be less than the previous deal. Of course, success on the field would also increase the top line which would be the best scenario.
  8. Major League Ready
    I explained that position on more than one occasion. The Twins by virtue of having so much young/cheap talent had the payroll capacity to add a high-end SP or at least I thought they did until the TV contract situation reared its ugly head. I even acknowledged that I had gathered all of the data on similar past free agent signings and found they were often a disaster. I also must concede that I did not think Nola would get 7 years going into his age 31 season. I was an advocate of signing him through age 35. To suggest that I was advocating for 7/175 is not accurate. The Pohlads financial well-being is of absolutely no consequence to me but I have been around financial decisions my entire career and know what to expect. I expect them to act like it's a business. I don't know how to build a house or develop software nor do I have expertise in many other areas requiring specialized training and experience and I don't presume people with that subject matter expertise are incompetent if I don't understand why they do something. Fans assume exceptionally successful people are incompetent fools when they disagree with how something is done. That's when I take exception.
  9. Major League Ready
    I was referring to the prospect cost being asked by teams with SPs to trade this off-season. Many have inquired. None have been willing to pay the asking price.
  10. Major League Ready
    I see the pecking order (right now) the same way as you. However, the relief and optimism in that video is telling unless you think he is a really good actor, there is reason for us to be optimistic regarding his health. He will still need to get control of his pitches.
  11. Major League Ready
    That's exactly why I brought it up. Flipping DeSlafani makes the entirety of the $10.5M savings from Polanco available. It's not hard to imagine their budget estimate for TV revenue was next to nothing based on the reported amount of payroll reduction. There is a play here if they get this TV deal done soon. The net result would be a good free agent SP plus Topa plus a top 100 prospect and another decent prospect plus whatever they get for DeSlafani. He should bring something back given the team getting him would only be on the hook for $4M in salary. That would be a great outcome.
  12. Major League Ready
    Granted, the most accurate phrasing would have been outside of 3-4 teams none of the several other teams that need a high-end pitcher have made such a trade. It makes your previous statement no less ridiculous. Of course, the teams with 2X the revenue resolve the need by signing free agents. To suggest this solution is equally valid for the twins is absurd. The obvious financial considerations aside, there are many teams with the same needs as the Twins. Which one of them has elected to pay the premium being asked of these SPs. Let's just ignore the facts. The Orioles have a far deeper farm system. have they done this in support of a team that won 100 games last year. There are several other teams in the same boat as the Twins. Which one of them has done what you want to insist should be done?
  13. Major League Ready
    The question is what number are they currently using in their budget? It's likely very conservative. There is a decent chance the amount of available dollars could jump a bit. Could that amount combined with the Polanco savings land a decent SP? Would they flip DeSclafani if that happened?
  14. Major League Ready
    The optimist in me looks at the potential if Alcala, Staumont, and Topa perform to their abilities. We have a shot at the best BP we have had in a long time.
  15. Major League Ready
    If the Pohlads or any other team believed this financial assumption, they would invest accordingly. They employee highly qualified financial specialists to assist in these decisions. Your position assumes they are ignoring the opportunity to make more money. That's not exactly consistent with the operating practices of any owner in the league. In general, the owners, and the people they employ have considerably more expertise and experience in this type of assessment than the average baseball fan. The odds are not in favor of the fans having a better grip on ROI and I doubt they are foregoing the opportunity to make more money in an attempt to put an inferior product on the field.
  16. Major League Ready
    It’s not this simple. Have you not read any of the articles both before and after the trade that outlined the numerous aspects of why Polanco should be traded and why this was a good trade for the Twins? Are you ignoring all these things that have been written or are you assuming that all of these media people and the FO lack your understanding of the situation? To your other point about platooning Farmer and Julien, that platoon does not take up a roster like some platoons would. Farmer is there to back-up multiple IF positions. He would be on the roster in that role regardless. The fact that he hits LHP very well allows for an expanded role which includes platooning. Again, just not as simple as you want to believe.
  17. Major League Ready
    Did you also hear that there are teams that generate $200M or $300M or even 400M more in revenue? So, do you somehow not understand that this incremental revenue allows these teams are able to address this need through free agency? The only other possibility is that you fully understand this exceptionally simplistic concept but made the statement anyway.
  18. Major League Ready
    I meant in general as opposed to specifically what you were saying but I did not articulate that very well.
  19. Major League Ready
    I think we can agree that there are a lot of teams that need this type of SP. If what you suggest is true, the front offices of all of the teams apparently don't understand the value proposition / asset management and risk mitigation principles you have cited because none of these SPs have been traded.
  20. Major League Ready
    Isn't this guy is being sold short just a little. He had 4 season with an ERA from 3.17-4.05. Why are so many people portraying him as the bottom rung? Yes, he was not great last year but he was also coming off a major injury. Is it that much of a stretch to believe he could deliver an ERA around 4.00 if he is healthy?
  21. Major League Ready
    We just disagree on this one. If we agree that a playoff caliber SP is not the difference in them making the playoffs, and we further agree that they have a lot of question marks, then leveraging the future before it is necessary to expend that capital is horrible asset management. The authority to make such decisions is taken from management with this sort of disregard for risk mitigation in mt experience. The ask on available SPs has negated team's desire for trade for top at SPs this off-season. Teams have been unwilling to pay the ask for SPs like Burns and Cease. Those guys will be available at the deadline. Has anyone traded for a font line starter this off-season? Do you think more or less "playoff caliber" SPs will be traded at the deadline?
  22. Major League Ready
    Just to support your point.., They will have 11 arbitration eligible players next year. Plus, Lopez will be getting a raise of $13.5M. However, if they get a decent TV deal, there will still be room. Kepler's salary comes off and they just might try to move Vazquez or at least part of his salary if Camargo does well. If they could move his salary, they would only be at around $110-115M with arbitration (est) raises depending on how salary they would have to eat to move Vazquez.. The capacity is there for the right player.
  23. Major League Ready
    Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season? Waiting until the deadline won't cost them making the playoffs. If it does, the team is not worthy of the type expending the type of prospect capital to get a playoff caliber SP. Waiting until the deadline is a risk reduction strategy which makes sense given the number of question marks for this team. Why pay the cost until you know the investment makes sense given we don't need it until August / October? Now, if they decide to expand the payroll to allow the acquisition of a good SP, sign me up.
  24. Major League Ready
    Do the rangers get to the WS without Jordan Montgomery? I doubt it. Just saying waiting until the trade deadline is an option.
  25. Major League Ready
    That's a mighty optimistic set of assumptions. Even if 1,2, and 4 come true, they still could use an OFer that is great against LHP. Martin could definitely fill that role, but he is the only in house option with perhaps the exception of Anthony Prato. They gave him some games in LF so he might be an option as well. Castro / Farmer and Vazquez are locks for bench roles. Someone that can mash LHP and play 1B/LF would fit in great.
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