Dman

I don't think you are understanding what I am saying. I am not saying Ober or Descla or Paddack aren't good pitcher's with good stats lines. That had nothing to do with my comment at all. I am saying all three have more injury risk than say guys that have had two or three or four years without major injury. I am saying it would be prudent to build extra depth because the odds are not in your favor of all of them making it a full season. Yeah Ober made it all season last year for the first time and maybe he will repeat that this year, but can you bank on that given his injury history? I wouldn't. I get that any pitcher can go down at anytime in any season so there is always risk. I just think the risk is even greater once a track record of injury is established. Those three have a track record of injury thus my house of cards comment. The rotation as configured could all come crashing down. One outcome is none of them are injured the entire year and they all pitch 180 innings and the house of cards stands. Another scenario is all three get injured and you are hoping Varland, Canterino and SWR can step in and take those innings unless they maybe sign one more guy to add a bit more veteran depth. Obviously you don't see that type of risk and that is fine. That is your opinion and you could be right and I could be wrong. For me after what happened last year with the team trying to use inexperienced guys like Sands, Moran, Winder, Balazovich, and Headrick things didn't work out well with them in the pen. You had to figure one of those guys would step up and work out, but none on them did. Depending on guys that haven't proven themselves can backfire. Granted I have quite a bit of faith in Varland and Canterino has been dominant when healthy like Ober was when he was in the Minors so I like their chances, but Varland struggled last year he might struggle again. We have no idea how Canterino's arm will hold up. Prielipp came to camp healthy after his TJ and two game in was done for the season again. So I don't want to bank on hope. I want as much proven depth as I can manage and there will be time to work in the young guys and see how they do. I think we just see risk differently and that's OK.

I think part of the reason some of theses lessor guys (options) have to wait is because the teams that don't get those top 4 guys might up the anti to a higher level to get some kind of replacement for losing on the player they wanted. MAT seems like he could be in that boat. One of the teams that wanted and doesn't get Bellinger could flip to MAT. Hard to say, but I do agree that once players have waited this long prices generally go down not up.

That is the first year he threw that many innings. 1 out of about 5 and he needed a long break at the end of the season to get there. I guess if you feel that is a good ratio or that he will never have any arm issues then that is fine don't include him. To me he has a history of breaking down and one year doesn't mean everything is necessarily all good. I'd still have a contingency plan for at least one if not two of Paddack, Descla and Ober.

It's not a certainty, but the rotation as constructed looks light to me and I think they add another veteran starter. It might be a 5th starter type that none of us wanted, but right now the rotation could be a house of cards with Paddack, Deslca and Ober. If they do add a Lorenzen, Odo, Ryu type then that would move Descla to the swingman role he was going to be used for in Seattle which given his arm history makes more sense to me. I could be dead wrong, but I don't see the Twins wanting to start the season with Varland, Canterino, Headrick or SWR as the 5th starter\swingman. I think ideally they make sure they are stretched out and on the right track in St. Paul before using them. Lot's of unknowns right now but I do think they go with a swingman for the 8th spot and try hard to get another arm in Free Agency. We'll see how things shake out.

Yeah that is what I am thinking too. I think they will go to around 130M for payroll this year so if they could move Farmer that would give them another 10 to 15M to get "A Guy". I like Farmer and like the fit for this team, but I don't think he is soo special that one of those other players couldn't come close to his production and if the piece they got (by moving his salary) was fairly big it might at least be a needle mover.

A little surprised some of the rebuilding teams didn't see Balazovich as an option if not to at least try and get him through waivers. With no one claiming him what does that say about his perceived projection as a MLB pitcher? Having no options left as a relief pitcher sure can leave you in no man's land. At any rate I am glad the Twins get another year to look at him and see if some tweaks can change his trajectory. I kind of thought Duarte would be claimed as well. I know the control issues are serious, but it seems like he has two good pitches to work with. Odds are he doesn't work out, but I still thought he would get claimed. Twins are going to have a lot of pen depth at AAA this year. With Helman, Prato and Goodrum hanging around would the Twins consider trading Farmer and adding a decent pitching FA to the roster with the saved money? Just wondering as they still have several interesting utility guys at AAA even beyond Lee. Here's hoping for a healthy spring for everyone.

Have you watched both pitchers pitch? Raya's pitches seem to move all over the place to me. I think he has really good movement on the fastball and slider and I also like his changeup. So for me Raya has higher rated stuff than Festa. He also has more projection left so I can see why he is slightly higher. To the OP's point Raya is only 6' with a slight frame and hasn't had a starters work load and pitchers of his stature generally have a hard time holding up as starters. So looking at that angle Raya doesn't look as good as Festa who has thrown a fair number of innings the last two years. I like Festa's stuff but he has had trouble holding it through 5 inning's so he has his own concerns there IMO, but he has nice size and hasn't had any arm issues to this point so he looks like the next Louie Varland to me. I know it seems counter intuitive but in a projection system I still think Raya comes out ahead because of the good stuff and decent command and mainly his age as he is 2 and a half years younger than Festa and just one level behind. Age is generally weighted pretty heavily unless you have some other unique trait to overcome it. In the end I like both and am happy the Twins have them. Hopefully both reach their ceiling as mid rotation starters.

Yeah I am with you here. The Twins wanted\needed a right handed bat for Gordon's role and with no options left Martin or a FA addition looked better in that spot. Since he had a horrible year last year the odds of finding a team that "believed" in Gordon as much as the Twins was going to be hard. Thankfully Miami had a need the Twins could fill and vice versa. Getting nothing for Gordon would have hurt so I think the FO did well to not only find a good return, but also one that met a need. That is not easy to do. Well played FO, well played.

Nice write up! It has been a struggle all the way up for Gordon, but when Healthy he has been a good player. Not sure if there is another level there for him to be a starter\all star type player, but I still think Miami got a great player with plenty of upside in this deal. I think he works out well in Miami. I like Nick Gordon, but he just didn't fit this years roster well IMO. Wishing him health and if he has that I believe success will follow.

As mentioned by many already I just don't see the Twins having Lee starting the year with the MLB team if Jullien, Lewis and Correa are all healthy as there isn't room for him to play everyday. It would go against the Twins philosophy to have him come up and be a bench player. They will want him to get everyday reps and he didn't dominate AAA last year so he needs the reps. I don't think pushing your young players up before they are ready is something the Twins would do or be pressured with by hoping they get another 1st round pick. The roster looks pretty much set so unless things change quite a bit before the season I don't see a spot for Lee to start the season. Once he dominates AAA and injuries mount they can likely find room later in the season.

Do't forget Santana for 1st base

Thanks! It felt like I was missing someone. Too many changes for me to keep track of I guess. That just makes the competition for that last spot even tougher then as only one of Staumont, Alcala and Funderburk can make it. Gotta like having the extra depth though. If you are one of the pitchers the Twins just put on waivers you have to hope to get claimed as there are a lot of guys you would have to beat out or have injuries to get your chance. If Staumont makes the 26 man then the Twins would have brought in 4 new pitchers for the bullpen this year. I'm not sure I buy that on paper they have the best pen in the AL, but this should be the most quality they have from guy to guy that I can ever remember.

True if injured he wouldn't have to use it. And after checking further I see Alcala has 3 options left so he could be sent down. Jax, Duran and Topa have options left as well but they are high leverage arms. So my thinking is wrong after checking. I am assuming only 8 pen arms Duran, Stewart, Jax, Topa, Thielbar, Okurt seem pretty immovable to me unless injured. So that is six spots taken then Alcala, Staumont and Fundreburk fight it out over the next two spots and they all have options left so they could be rotated. Unless I am missing someone that is how I see it. Unless of course the Twins get another rotation arm and use Desclafani in long relief. I just don't see them carrying 14 pitchers with all the platooning they do but I could be wrong there too. At any rate forget what I said earlier, lol.

Yeah it will depend on Staumont but since he has an option left they could start him in AAA as well. It will be interesting to see what kind of shape he is in at spring training. I think there is still competition for that roster spot. All things being equal I would agree that Funderburk starts at AAA before Staumont.

I think this was a necessary trade and am glad the Twins found a way to get something they needed as well as decent value in this deal. With Thielbar getting older and struggling with injuries another left handed reliever sure is nice to have around. I don't love last years numbers FIP\ERA for Okert but everything else checks out. It would have been awesome if he had one more option year left, but he is a better fit for this years team than Gordon so that works for me. I still think Gordon is gonna be a good hitter and I think playing closer to home might help him some as well. I don't know if he will ever be 800 OPS bat, but I think he is a good fit for Miami as well. This looks like another one of those win, win trades these teams like to put together. Feels like there is at least one more move for the Twins. They have enough money to get a free agent starter and it feels like given Paddack\Desclafani have injury concerns grabbing another arm might make sense. Otherwise a right handed outfield bat should just about do it. Things are coming together late as always.

I really like that he mainly swings at strikes. It is generally the skill that separates players that can or cannot make the jump to MLB. It often is a skill that comes later for players. Since Rodriguez already has a good eye he has the potential to be an elite bat IMO. On the other hand players with 30% K rates can have a tough making it as well. Joey Gallo was able to draw walks and hit home runs, but a true 3 outcome player isn't exactly pretty. From what I have read Rodriguez has trouble with certain parts of the zone and I have watched him have some ugly at bats. So i get the concerns. Still I think he adjusts and overcomes some of those limitations. If he hadn't started so slow at High A it would have been another 900 OPS year for him. He sat in the top 5 in his league in most offensive categories and played decent defense in center. So he has been very productive for a player younger than league average all the way up. If he can make a few more tweaks to the approach he will likely be an offensive force. AA will be a tough adjustment for him. Most of the best pitching prospect's hit that level with good to great breaking stuff. I am a believer though and like his chances to be a very good player at the MLB level. This year should tell us quite a bit about where he is at.

This is a great article and sums up my thoughts on Sands. He feels just a tweak away from being a solid bullpen arm. He did well as a starter in the minors but was always hurt so the move to the pen makes sense to me. I agree that the less he throws the fastball the better. He is getting killed on that pitch. His other pitches have nice movement and can produce awkward swings. He proved he has the the stuff at AAA he just needs to prove it at the MLB level now.

IMO the hit tool is the most important tool. Guys that put the bat on the ball all over the zone are hard to find. It seems to be a skill you have or don't have as it is hard to teach beyond a certain point. Lumped in with hit tool is plate discipline, without it you get results more like Austidillo (The Turtle) rather than Arraez. MIranda had the same issues in the Minors and struggled again in the Majors. If Gonzalez is ever going to make it he is going to have to have better plate discipline. Maybe he does just enough like Eddie Rosario did without it, but he has a chance to be a special bat if he can force pitchers to give him good pitches to hit.

Raya gets some serious movement on his pitches. I think he has the pitches to be a top of the rotation starter, but I do wonder if the arm will hold up. He had some arm issues in fairly limited use in 2021 and they kept him with low pitch counts in 2022 to build up, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a heavier load. Super excited about his potential though and having some home grown top of the rotation starters would help this team a lot.

No question having good vibes in the club house with everyone having each others back keeps confidence up in a sport where failure can run rampant. Having players like Cruz, Correa and Gray and many others say they enjoyed their time in Minnesota and say good things about the Team and organization in general when they leave, makes the Twins a team players like to play for. Guys with good attitudes generally also have a good work ethic and just bring positive energy which is important in a long grueling season. I see the value. I see the importance, but being a nice, team player etc. doesn't make you a good baseball player. You have to have some crazy good talent to get there. Players come from all over the world, have all kinds of different personalities and beliefs about how the world should work. It is the talent they bring that makes them valuable regardless of personality. Sure if you have two players of fairly equal skill and one looks like a better fit for the clubhouse go with the guy that fits. Sure getting a bad apple can really mess up team chemistry, but how many bad apples are out there? It seems about 90% of the players are well liked or at the vary least aren't clubhouse disrupters. It doesn't feel like this a "huge" problem in baseball. Yes having good team chemistry is important and when it creates a band of brothers mentality a team can be greater than the individual talent that makes it up, but it is only one component of many that go into winning. Do I like that the Twins have created a good culture for the team and its employee's? Do I think having a manager who helps create good chemistry is important? Do I think players perform better when there is little to no conflict amongst them? I do think those things are important and that they help. However I still think talent is the most important thing. Great talent is the rarest commodity in baseball and we see how much teams are willing to pay for unique talent because that is what wins games and championships. Intangibles are nice addon qualities, but they only take you so far.

I was wondering about the Braves maybe grabbing Thompson as a defensive depth piece as they have several open 40 man spots. I also was thinking they might be interested in Balazovic as he has been a starter and they don't have much depth, although with him being fairly untested and having control problems they likely could do better with claims out of spring training. They have a lot of spots left and I don't think they have been too active with claims yet, but they can afford for someone closer to MLB quality as well.

I am not sure of anything. I am basing it off this rough reading in MLB trade rumors. I agree I always thought it was when pitchers catchers reported and perhaps I made an assumption No specific date is mentioned in the article but to me it read like 2/8 https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/los-angeles-dodgers WOuld be happy to be wrong given the recent DFA's

With no options left and this being a playoff team it was going to be really, really hard to keep Balazovic on the 40 man. I mean if he looked elite out of the pen maybe they would have tried to keep him but IMO it was best to rip the band aide off and do the DFA. Festa, Lee or some other player was going to need that 40 man spot anyway and Balazovic was gonna be the first one to go. At least they got a guy that if they can pass him through waivers will have options left. I will say I was a huge, huge believer in Balazovic, I had him as a future mid rotation starter, but the wheels fell off when he couldn't control his pitches. I still think he will be a good to really good pen arm. He has good velocity and movement on some pitches, but the lack of options makes it a killer for the Twins. Also there are several arms that look better right now in Canterino, Festa, Raya, Ohl, SWR and I even have Sands ahead of him right now. I loved watching him move up, but for this years team I think this is the right decision.

So if I read the transactions page correctly looks like Balazovic, Duarte and Thompson are all DFA'd today.

Yeah I don't know Staumont's injury status, but it seems like the Twins could start him on 60 day and slowly work him in as the season goes on. I thought Desclafani was good to go and not sure who else on the roster could go the 60 day so it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. After tomorrow getting someone through waivers will not be easy because so many spots will open up.