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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    It seems to me most RuleV trades simply involve money. Similar to teams who trade for marginal players during the season for money. I don't think any player will be involved in this trade.
  2. Dman
    No Twins picked in Rule V draft as predicted by most of the board. Just shows how hard it is to carry those picks all year unless things work out extremely well. Only 13 picks made this year.
  3. Dman
    Was going to write the following until traded: "Susac is a decent pick given the Twins struggle to develop catchers. Still I didn't see that pick coming since they just traded for Jackson and while Pereda isn't anything special he;s still on the 40 man. They still have Gasper as well. So four catchers right now. The odds of him sticking seem slim IMO, but given the offense the Twins got from Vasquez last year maybe they can if his defense is decent. Unless they trade Jeffers they would have to carry three catchers this year which also seems unlikely. Will be interesting to see what happens. Personally out of anyone they could have picked I think I liked Susac the best. Hopefully he is worth keeping." I guess that explains the pick. Twins were more interested in money than the pick.
  4. Dman
    I wrote earlier that I didn't see the Twins adding anyone in Rule V. Since they protected Rojas, Prielipp, Morris and Klein that is already a slew of young arms on the 40 man to try and work in this year. That doesn't even include the relatively young and newly added Matthews, Festa, Abel, Adams, Ohl and Raya. I don't think they need some Rule V arm they can't move up and down in the way of all those arms that need chances as it is. I agree Culpepper seems the most likely to be taken. They likely had to choose between Culpepper and Klein and given Culpepper has been injured each year he has been a pro and seems most likely a reliever. It seems Klein who has thrown more innings and projects better as a potential starter won that contest. I still think Klein will be a reliever in the end as his deep fly ball tendencies likely won't work out as well at the MLB level, but we'll see. Personally I think there are better arms available in Rule V than Culpepper, but his four pitch mix, decent control and velocity have him as the most likely to be taken IMO. Whether he sticks if taken is hard to say. Oliveros could be taken, but being only at high A with control issues it seems unlikely that works out well. When I went to watch him in Beloit he couldn't throw strikes and when he did they were solid hits and he didn't make it out of the first inning. He wouldn't be my Rule V pick, but he is young and throws a good fastball. Maybe Colorado? It is just too hard to keep a position player on the 26 man unless they have elite defense or Speed. Rosario doesn't have what teams would be looking for IMO. While Fedko does have some very good traits his age and the fact he likely is a 4th outfielder make him a bit of a burden as a Rule V pick. I don't see him getting taken mainly because of his age and diminished upside. We'll see what other teams think, but I believe several on this board that mentioned the Twins were unlikely to have anyone picked will be right.
  5. Dman
    They generally have gone High school I believe, but their main thing is they seem to shoot for the highest upside. So I could see them sticking with Emerson and if Lombard looks better at the plate I could see them grabbing him as a potential 5 tool talent. I do wonder if they might want to fast track at shortstop since they picked Daniel Pierce (HS SS) in the last draft. If that is the case I could see them taking Lebron who also could be a 5 tool player if he can manage his chase rate. He has good power so could move pretty fast. Personally I think they go with Lebron, but Emerson is enticing at 6'2" 180 as a 17 year old. He could be a monster player as well. It's gonna be tough to move off those top 4 shortstops IMO, but we'll see how they have performed closer to the draft. Maybe an arm works their way in there. Still if all those shortstops perform I think they all could be the top pick in this and lot's of other drafts. Twins are in almost the opposite position of Tampa as they could easily go with a HS player having taken two college shortstops the last two drafts. Still hard to say what the Twins will want to do. How they see their future.
  6. Dman
    Sorry yeah I got off topic as well. Will shut up now. There should be good talent at number 3. Will they try and deal for more money or go BPA. Should be interesting now that they are top 3.
  7. Dman
    Would you say the Twins are a bullpen arm away from the World series right now? Would you say it easier to find an elite starting pitcher than a reliever? Or an elite position player than elite reliever? Would you rather have Griffen Jax this year and a 4.23 ERA or Danny Coulombe and 2.30 ERA. Relievers that don't cost that much are found every year. Much harder at other spots. Twins can't afford 20M dollar relievers does that mean they have no chance at WS title?
  8. Dman
    They didn't have too, but given all the speculation and before the Correa trade it seemed very likely they would move at least one of them. To both reduce salary and trade from area of strength. They could afford to lose one high leverage arm if keeping Jax and or Varland. Ultimately they traded all three which seems dangerous IMO but here we are.
  9. Dman
    That's a really pessimistic take. This team before the deadline lost 2 out three to the Rockies, Dodgers, Nationals and Red Sox. That was with all those "great" players they got rid of. The team wasn't going anywhere and selling off guys that were gone at years end and some bullpen arms doesn't exactly seem crazy given the team hadn't performed well all year (other than one crazy winning streak that was an outlier). Maybe they win a few more games keeping the band together to the end of the year, but what's the point if they weren't making the playoffs anyway? This was a lottery team no matter what. They were going to trade one of Duran or Jax for sure. Jax had a 4.23 ERA this year. I don't think he was going to help down the stretch and they would have wanted to trade him in the offseason or at the end of 2026 at the latest as he was getting expensive. I hated to see Duran go and I think that is gonna hurt a bit, but hopefully the return makes it worth it. Again if your going to lose a player a bullpen arm seems better than most any other position. Why they Traded rubber armed Varland doesn't make sense to me given the years of control left, but hopefully that lefty is the real deal and makes me forget about it. At any rate bottom line they were in the lottery no matter what they did with a decent shot at a top 8 pick. The way things worked out they managed to get number 3 and a chance to pick an up the middle talent. Hopefully they don't screw it up. If they were going to trade players trading from the pen should hurt less than a starting pitcher or good position player. Hopefully some of the young arms they have step up and help make the pen a strength again.
  10. Dman
    I just don't see them trading Jeffers unless the return is substantial and it seems unlikely the return would be substantial. They made enough trades at the deadline for young arms that they really can't afford to carry anymore of them on the 40 man. Bats in the wings are Rodriguez, Gonazalez, and maybe Culpepper or Jenkins with a crowded 26 man outfield currently. What would they need more than catcher? So why trade a catcher who is currently a good value if they are planning on competing this year? I mean sure if your blowing things up why not get value for everything you can, but that's not what they say they are doing. I feel pretty confident they just hang onto Jeffers at least until the deadline. We'll see how this team looks then.
  11. Dman
    I tend to agree. The Mets just like to lowball teams. I can't see them giving up low cost pitching or anything approaching Ryan's real value. As others have stated teams are loathe to give up their top players. Twins couldn't get traction on Painter for Duran had to Settle for their fourth best prospect and and Abel who was heading down and out of top 100 lists. Mets will likely try and do the same thing. We'll have to wait and see, but I don't see the Mets getting Ryan. Maybe Lopez just because the Twins would be more inclined to shed salary.
  12. Dman
    Jamie thanks for the update! Always like to know where we are picking. Glass half full, in getting a later round comp B pick is we are just closer to our third round pick. Close to picking back to back. I'd love to see the Twins pick top 2 in this draft, but if they fall they fall. It would take some incredibly bad luck for them to pick 8th even 7th seems like a long shot. Still the further they fall the more likely they choose an arm over a bat and there are going to be good players in the top ten of this draft anyway. Looking forward to the board you come up with this year. Thanks for the best Twins draft coverage anywhere!
  13. Dman
    Yeah he was criminally underpaid for his production this year. For Qualified players he was top 9 in OPS. Judge, Ohtani, and Soto make three to four times as much as Buxton. Granted last year was the first time Buxton qualified I believe. Still if Schwarber who is a DH only is making more than Buxton who provides value on the field and on the bases that just seems out of line. IIRC he had stated that he would play for 15M with the no trade clause so if that is broken it would make sense to renegotiate the salary given it is so out of line with his performance when healthy. He still remains an injury risk but even at DH his bat plays. Hopefully he can find a way to get a bit more money if he agrees to move on.
  14. Dman
    Yeah don't know why they would trade him if not getting a top 100 prospect back unless he really, really wants to leave. Also don't forget that they can still get really promising players that are not in the top 100 right now, but could make it there in the future. Younger players and lot's of arms break into the top 100 later rather than sooner. I'd think one top 100 player and some promising young talent could get it done for a guy who stayed healthy all last year and was in the MVP voting. He has a power speed combo that is one of the best in baseball and a contract for All Star caliber play that any team would love. Yeah the injury history is risky, but he seems to have figured out what he needs to do to stay healthy. Personally I hope the Twins don't trade him as he is one of the few players I like to watch hit, run the bases and play the field. Still I get that if the Twins are truly in rebuild mode that it might make sense for both parties to move on. I'll always love Buxton for his loyalty, but the timing for him and where this team is at seems off. Would like to see him go out with a trophy, He gave the Twins everything he could even signing an incentive laden contract to stay. It might be time for Byron to do something for Byron. Whatever he decides I'll be fine with it.
  15. Dman
    The Twins have no Lefty starters so I could see them giving Prielipp more time. I'd think they see how he performs at AAA to start the year and depending on results and MLB team needs make that move later rather than sooner. Raya has seemed destined for the pen for a while. His pitches rate as elite yet he struggles with control and in the end giving up too many hits. The Twins have a lot of righty arms. Raya has a slim build and while they have kept his arm in good shape it just feels like the pen makes too much sense. Hey if he figures things out and becomes a dominant reliever they could always look at him as a starter again if needed.
  16. Dman
    I don't see the Twins making a Rule V pick this year. They have a lot of young talent as is and Rule V players are hard to carry and take up a 40 man spot. I would think any of the players they plan on dropping would be for free agent vets or possibly a waiver claim.
  17. Dman
    Gotta believe Foley isn't ready right now and would be questionable health wise this season. That's the only reason I can see the pitching needy Tigers just letting him go. If its a minor leagure deal to start I would be interested but not sure he would be my gamble on a 40 man spot. Moreta is interesting again why would the Pirates let him go? They need everything especially bullpen arms. Wondering if durability concerns or underlying numbers aren't what they should be.
  18. Dman
    It looks like it was down to Klein and CJ and they chose Klein which kind of made sense as he has been more durable and appears closer to ready to compete at the MLB level this year. Still hate to see CJ out there, but there are only so many young unproven arms you can add in any given year. I tend to agree they could have made room if they really wanted to as Keirsey seems like an easy drop from the 40 man. Still as others have noted Rule V's have to stay rostered all offseason and if they plan to add any free agents at all they are going to need some room to do that. Adding yet another Rule V arm would really put pressure on some of these young guys working out right away. If you are going to lose someone given how stacked they are on arms losing a guy in CJ who is most likely a reliever is probably the way to go. It kind of stinks they need to add Mendez earlier than he looks ready to be added but given his age and abilities I can see why he needed to be added. Rosario and Fedko are interesting players but given how hard it is for bats to translate at the MLB level it feels fairly safe to leave them off. They protected the arms they needed to protect other than maybe CJ so I think they chose well. This roster has a lot of young talent on it. Some of these arms are going to need to perform well right from the start or it could be a rough start to the season again next year. Still you have to be happy to see so many good young arms that need to be protected with another wave likely starting at High A next year. The other nice thing is that as things stand right now there are not many players that will need to be Rule V's next year unless of course the Twins make more trades and change things or add players early.
  19. Dman
    I've waffled back and forth on this one since the end of the season. If they full on sell and get rid of Buxton and Jeffers I'm not sure I can watch that lineup all year. Losing two stud pitchers would hurt too. Granted they pitched without Lopez most of last year as is. I don't know that you need to get rid of every vet on this team to do a rebuild, but I get that guys that have value likely should be traded if you aren't set to compete the next two years. Having a likely big labor dispute makes this even tougher IMO. So yeah half measures might just waste value in the end. This team does have a lot of young talent on it already though. If they trade for even more some of that talent might get away from them. Granted not every prospect makes it so it could in theory work itself out. We saw what the A's have done the last three years or so and they have hit on their draft picks as well as managing to get Rooker's bat going as a cheap acquisition. They look like they just need some arms to better compete and should be in the mix soon. So maybe the Twins do the same and go all in on the young talent. Play two years of ugly ball as that talent develops and hope you found some all star caliber players via those trades and the draft. Going all in on selling is just so hard to watch as a fan. It took the Twins a long time to get anywhere in there last rebuild granted their farm was bad and they didn't have any great players to trade last time and this time the farm is pretty stocked and they have good players to trade as well. So in theory things should happen faster this time. It's a tough call but they might be in the best spot to take that risk and strip it down to bring in a huge wave of young talent and see if they develop enough stars to compete with the big boys. If it fails you might have to deal with a double rebuild. If it works you might have a World Series caliber team.
  20. Dman
    We'll have to see how these guys do next year, but if the Twins have the number 1 or 2 pick I don't see them grabbing an arm. If the Twins fall further back I wouldn't mind seeing them double down on an elite arm. Have to wait and see how things shake out, but those are three nice arms to dream on.
  21. Dman
    Yeah I always have a tendency to over estimate who will be added. Still this is the most players I have seen in quite a while with a case to be added.
  22. Dman
    I am pretty high on MacLeod as well. The only reason he is a non-add for me is he seems more of a crafty lefty and I am not sure how that will translate. Still he could be a pretty good bullpen arm. Can he transition right away I guess is the question. Maybe I am over rating Klein but he seems like he has a bigger fastball and I think that plays better out of the pen. December is coming and then we'll know how the Twins feel about the plethora of arms they have on the bubble.
  23. Dman
    I don't see them adding a Rule V arm this year either. They have a ton of young talent at the AAA\breaking into the majors level as it is and they need some space for some vet arms or bats. There's just so much young talent I can't see them going the Rule V route.
  24. Dman
    Yeah I agree with you. Fedko has enough defensive versatility to play even center and good plate discipline so hopefully not lost at the plate at the MLB level if selected. He showed he has power this year. The only thing working against him is age to some extent. Most rule V picks are younger players unless relief arms. Rosario might be tempting but with little defensive versatility and while not horrible in the K department certainly would be worse at the MLB level and never having played beyond AA he seems like a pretty risky add for another team. I don't see Klein as a starter, but he could be one. He looks like he is on the Varland track to me though. I think he could have big fastball out of the pen. Still they could take their chances and leave him out there. It just seems given they brought in that arm from Philly with worse control problems it would seem a bit odd not to add Klein IMO. Still he is one the fence. I kind of thought Cardenas might get added based on defense and decent bat skills but I guess the bat is too light. At any rate should be and interesting Rule V.
  25. Dman
    Sorry yeah I wrote that poorly. That is what I meant. He got claimed so didn't make it make it back to AAA after being purged from 40 man.
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