Dman

Yeah that sounds about right to me as well. What else can they really do? They have all this young pitching on the 40 man to the point they can't really add anyone else and next year they need to be able to add likely Canterino, Varland, Gipson-long and maybe Mooney not to mention Wallner, Steer and Jullien. They have to figure out what they have and hope it translates to the 26 man so that they have a better idea of who looks like they can make it and who looks like it might take too long to develop. Like it or not it seems to me they need a development year to figure out if they can fill out that rotation internally or at least hopefully be able to fill three or four of those slots internally. I think your plan makes a lot of sense. The one thing the Twins appear to have right now is significant depth with close to ready young pitching. TIme to see if they can make it or not as there are guys right behind them likely ready to go after next year.

Let me just say I wasn't enamored with the pick when the Twins made it. Another potential positionless player with a high K rate but good hard hit rate. His numbers are a bit deceiving as his BABIP was .526 he is not going to keep up that pace so regression is in his future. The K rate is still a concern at nearly 30% and he didn't walk much like at a 5% or 6% rate. So he has things to work on as he moves up. The thing I have to say I didn't see at the time of the draft is his good contact rate. He is a bit Miranda like in his ability to get the bat to the ball. His K rate is much higher than Miranda so he is not quite that level but anyone that can do what he did at that level where lot's of players struggled you have to dream on him a bit. I think Seth had him ranked pretty high and I too think he could end up a top 5 prospect in the Twins system before he heads to MLB. I think that was a very solid pick for the 4th round. Still has to work on that eye at the plate and make sure pitchers throw him good strikes to hit. If he does that I think he will be OK.

Yeah Law is pretty good at what he does and it is nice that he generally gives a different viewpoint. I can't argue with his Twins picks although I thought after the year Balazovich had he might have had him even lower. I kind of thought he might throw SWR in at the end as there are not many or any 20\21 year old pitching at AA but I guess he fell off too hard at the end to justify it. Winder is on the older side I think 25 so starting to move out of top 100 prospect status IMO. He even says upside is a big part of his criteria at the start of this article. The only other pitcher in the Twins system to pitch significant innings are Sands and Strotman who are older and not looked at as top of the rotations starter and Balazovich who he included in his top 100. Canterino, Duran, Enlow were all out with injuries. Lot's of scouts think Petty isn't strong enough to start and ends up in the pen so not a likely top 100 guy until he can prove otherwise. So not sure who else he could have put in there on the pitching side. Miranda is the last big bat in the system and he has him in his top 100. The Twins have a lot of players that could make the majors but not many that look like they have top of the league skills. I would say his assessment was more than fair this time around.

It feels like a trade like this is a move you make when you have more knowns in your rotation. You are only getting Glasnow for one year so things need to line up. You could be giving up good future assets with long term team control for one great year that might not matter or if injured again in 2023 then for nothing. Timing doesn't feel right and too risky for my blood but then I guess that is probably why I am not GM material.

I know SSS shouldn't cloud one's judgement but the trends he has as a bat first player make it hard to be a believer. The lack of contact and 30% K rate or more is concerning for someone who was supposed to have good contact skills. I will say the one positive he has and it is a big positive is that walk rate\eye at the plate. That is the one thing that gives me hope he can bring that K rate down and in time get more contact on more swings. It is way too early to give up on Sabato but I can sure see why there is some angst especially since he was a 1st round pick that was supposed to be bat ready.

I think the trade scenarios offered by Hayes are a bit pie in the sky. The Twins would be trading some of their best close to ready players for two years of another player because the Twins as proven in the Berrios trade don't like to extend pitchers. They would be giving up a lot for two years and with a rotation of Ober, Ryan and Bundy just how good will this team\rotation be in 2022? All three of those pitchers are pretty much unknowns at this point. Giving up Austin which is half of the Haul from the Berrios trade and including Canterino possibly a better pitcher than SWR it feels hollow to me. Why not have just kept Berrios and extended him? Sorry but I just don't see them getting that kind of trade for a starter done. If they had a solid rotation already and were just missing a piece I could maybe see it but with so much up in the air on the pitching side it seems more likely a waste than a help. They can and likely will try to pickup Pineda or someone like him but IMO I think that will be it.

Sano was brutal the first month and a half of the season and really hurt the teams offense in April when he had an OPS of about .550. Maybe the cold doesn't agree with him but he was a liability in the field and while at bat to start the season. By Mid May he starts to get it together and when the weather warms up from June to September he has OPS's of right around .800 or better. If you take out that first month he trends as a pretty potent hitter. Just a tad bit more plate discipline and a greater ability to hit stuff low and away and he could be a monster hanging around the 900 OPS range. It is a lot of if's and this will be a big year for Sano but feels early to give up on a guy that seems to be slowly working his way to elite status at the plate. While DH does make the most sense for Sano the Twins have several players that will likely need time there in Rooker, Donaldson and Garver as well as others. Not sure how it all works out but given his lack of defensive upside I would try to keep him at DH as much as possible. Call me overly optimistic but despite the K rate I feel optimistic that he can become a hitter that can find his way to 900 OPS seasons. If he stumbles this year though I think the Twins will likely end up cutting him loose. This really is an important year for the big guy.

I think it is a bit of a stretch to say the Twins let Donaldson down. 2020 turned out to be shortened by COVID and Donaldson himself never really got on track that year and the Twins had a pretty fluky year in 2021 where nothing went their way to start the season. Donaldson was brought in to solidify the Bomba Squad from 2019 and make the lineup incredibly deep with power and they needed his right handed bat. He was supposed to be a piece that would help them take the next step. So far that plan hasn't worked out and now with so much unknown pitching, 2022 looks like it might not end well either. Maybe those young pitchers turn out OK this year for the Twins and this team is the hunt for the division title but it feels like a long shot. I think the Twins will keep Donaldson to start the season there are not really many teams in need of his services at the moment right now anyway and if you look back he did not have ton of suitors for his services in free agency other than Atlanta. If Donaldson is healthy and has an 800 OPS or higher and the Twins are out of it I could see them trying to trade him at the deadline. By then another another team might have injured players and need his services or see him as a better option for DH\3rd base going on a playoff run. His salary will be further paid down as well. There doesn't seem to be any reason to trade him until the deadline IMO. I will say this about Josh. He has been nothing but a good team mate who cares about playing winning baseball. He has been what the Twins wanted when they signed him it just seems like things moved sideways on this team and its outlook since they signed him. Still there doesn't seem to be any reason to trade him until the deadline IMO. If the Twins do find some luck they might need his bat yet.

That is a nice article, thanks for sharing! I am probably lower on Ober than most but was happy to see him do well last year and we need him to be just a little bit better this year. Looks like he has the pitches to do it, just has to execute them in a good order to keep hitters off balance.

I think being in he hall requires you to be one of the best of the best in your era. To prove that I think you have to have some longevity otherwise it seems hard to prove you are a dominant player to me. I get that injuries happen and great players careers get cut short but I still think you need play for a long time to prove you belong in the hall. You need to have some counting stats that prove you were one of the best in your era. If you are a dominant player you should be better than average for a long period of time. How long that needs to be I don't know exactly but 10 years seems like a minimum to me and would need extra context to get in. The Hall seems like a place for those who stand out in their generation. The rest can still get recognition by being All-Stars or having a great season here or there. IMOm Leave the hall for the consistently great performers.

Don't know much about Povich as most analysts had little info or at least little to say about him. The most I have heard about him is on this site and Seth stating he was an arm that turned heads in camp. I am hoping Doc's take turns out to be true. We could use a good lefty or two to balance out the rotation.

In 2017 it looked like the Twins might have something in Granite. He had an 867 OPS in AAA that year and got called up to the big leagues. Unfortunately he never put up numbers close to that again. I guess once teams figure out a weakness and you cannot adjust then at some point you hang up the spikes.

Yeah I tend to agree with you. There isn't much that they can get in free agency that will matter at this point. They still could pull off a meaningful trade but I am not holding my breath there either. With the Berrios trade and lack of action on getting top end arms it feels like they have left themselves too thin on the pitching side. It really feels like this is a take your lumps with the younger arms and see what sticks and or maybe get a breakout or two or three and suddenly this is a team that can compete. I think they are mainly going to keep the reinforcements internal though.

Hard to say how Free Agency will go after the lockout and new CBA. Will it be a feeding frenzy to try and sign players as fast as possible or will teams want to figure out what they have and take their time getting there. Personally, I think things will happen fast. They gain two 40 man spots when they can put Enlow and Maeda on the injured list but other than a shortstop and another starter I am not sure what else the Twins plan to do this year in free agency. The 40 man is pretty full of younger players so unless they are trading they might have to lose guys to add guys. Thorpe, Jax and maybe Stashak seem like the only pitchers that they could remove if they find something substantially better. I guess I don’t see them being overly active unless there are players out there that look like bargains once the merry go round stops.

I have been worried about Duran being a pen arm for quite a while. There were a fair number of scouts that seemed to question whether he could hold up to starting pretty much from the time Minnesota got him in trade. Granted with 2020 off and 2021 extremely short it is hard to say where he is at or could be at stamina wise in the future. Still given the high velocity arm and not an over the top K9 I think the pen looks like his best chance for success. I think SWR as a pick is a bit premature. He is only 21 and still getting a feel for all his pitches. That being said I can understand why he was picked as he fell off pretty badly after a great start to the season and it makes you wonder if he will have what it takes to keep it going all year as a starter. Still I don't think I would pick a 21 year old for this list especially when you have Vallimont that would be a better one to add to this list. I know Sands has had his issue's and he stopped and started a bit again last year but I thought he held his own as starter last year. There is lot's of chatter from analysts that see him in the bullpen but he seems a bit like a bull dog type pitcher and he might be able to remain a starter if his stuff plays at the MLB level. FWIW remember a lot of analysts had Canterino pegged as a pen arm as well. Hard to say how any of these guys will turn out in the end but if this were my list I would have Duran, Vallimont and Jax as the guys most likely to be relievers.

I liked this pick when the Twins made it. First thing I liked was he was a lefty with a solid build. Second was most of the analysts thought it was a good pick mainly based on projection as a fair number of them felt he had a bit more in the tank than what he showed that year in college. I agree with everything the OP said. I think the fastball will play at the top of the zone. He needs to find a plus third pitch and he should be good. Pretty excited to see how he does this year.

Yeah we think a like. I just have this feeling that maybe just maybe the pitching they have plays well and gives them a shot at taking the division. I know it is a long shot but like you said the offense appears pretty solid and Donaldson is a big part of that if he stays healthy. If the Twins are in it I wouldn't rush to get rid of Donaldson. The question is will they be in it.

Yeah I think this article is a good reminder that Donaldson performed pretty much as expected and I agree that even for myself the main reason I have been down on him were injury ravaged 2020 and injury start to 2021. I still think a trade deadline deal would be best for the Twins though as I don't think he fits the timeline for this team anymore. He was brought in as help now piece and he wasn't really there for the team in 2020 and we crumbled last year and don't look to have good enough pitching this coming year. I still think it might be time to move on.

That was a great story! Thanks for that. I was raised in Staples, MN so I know Nimrod well or should I say at least know it exists. I never knew about Mr. Stigman as he is a bit before my time but it is nice to know someone from that area made it to the big leagues.

The main reason is he is a 50 runner. He is only going to get bigger and likely slower. Almost all the young SS that start out as 50 runners seem to end up moving off the position to second or third. Sounds like he has has good actions and the arm looks good enough but the odds are against him sticking there IMO. I could see him filling in at short but IMO he will grow out of the position. Never say never but again I think the odds are against him. I also think that is why he was rated in the 100 range as a 3rd or 4th round pick. If evaluators thought he would be a top tier shortstop he would have been ranked close to first round or top 40 picks where the Twins took him. Like I said he is a risky bet to stay there.

I like that he is a switch hitter and that he has good defensive instincts. I just don't think he will be able to stick at Short. I was OK with the pick mainly because he is switch hitter and they are kind of hard to find these days and I do think he will hit and I think he will hit for power. Personally I see him in a utility role but will have to wait and see as it takes a while to see how the high school players are going to develop. I certainly hope he reaches his highest potential but I see 2nd or 3rd base in his future and I think the bat will play at either spot in the end. It felt like the pick was a reach but also a fairly safe pick for a guy who should work out just fine somewhere in the infield.

I think the evaluators are correct. Even I don't know what to expect anymore. He needs to show everyone where he is at before he can be properly ranked. I still am a big believer. I have my concerns about his swing but he has had so little development time or time to adjust it all feels premature to judge. I think it is fine they let him drop and like Nick said they can wipe the egg off their faces after he proves them all wrong.

Yeah that was a pretty crazy turn of events. At the time Ynoa was having control problems and was a long ways away so I wasn't that burned about the trade. Even when they eventually decided to trade Garcia to the Yankee's it looked like it could be a win for the Twins as they were getting a closer to ready pitcher instead of one further away. Granted not as much upside for Littell but we needed pitching ASAP so again it didn't seem like all was lost. Not sure why the Twins gave up on Littell so fast. He was injured in 2020 which seemed to impact his stuff and he became pretty homer prone but he had had a pretty good 2019. At any rate they lost out big time on that trade in the end IMO. As a side note remember they were going to trade Burdi to Atlanta but they didn't like the medicals. If they would have taken him instead of Ynoa this trade looks a lot different. Most teams that are close generally do try to trade their further away high upside assets for assets that are ready or closer to ready but lot's of times those asset's don't pan out. Kind of surprising with Gil and Ynoa that both turned out actually better than expected at least to this point. So have some of the relievers the Twins have moved on from. Their pen management kind of boggles my mind. I have no idea what their strategy there is other than grabbing guys at the bottom of the barrel and trying to make them stick.

I said 5 to 6 but it could end up less than 5. I feel like Balazovich can make it. His arm has been solid to this point. Ryan already had a taste and looked pretty good. I am a big believer in Winder and he seems to have a solid build as well. He had a tough second half but with SWR having success at AA at 21 he also seems like a good bet to make it barring injury. I have Canterino having the stuff to make but wondering about injury. Strotman is the last guy I have for making it. That delivery is so smooth it is a thing of beauty to me. He needs to find a way to miss more bats but if he does he looks like a good one to me. I just don't know about Sands. He has definitely has the stuff to be a reliever but I am questioning his ability to start and stay healthy. I don't trust Durans arm to hold up maybe not even as a pen arm. Vallimont looks like he will have a tough time succeeding because he has a hard time throwing strikes. I like Louie but still see him more as a reliever. He can feel free to prove me wrong this year. I don't trust Raya's arm. Enlow still has a good chance but with him being so far away it is hard to know how he will come back from surgery. Hajjar, Povich, Petty, McCloud I just haven't seen enough of them to say yet. It sure feels like a good group. This is the hardest throwing group of guys this system has ever put together and I have to believe some of these guys end up being good. Hard to say who will make it out of the 15 or so guys with potential.

I was pretty excited about this pick when the Twins made it. I know high school pitcher picks come with ton's of risk but it sure beats picking another slow footed bat first player. There was a nice scouting report write up that I am guessing others have read taking a pretty objective view of Petty. If the arm holds up I think the Twins have the upside of a front to mid rotation starter and floor of elite reliever which isn't bad for where they picked either. I am hoping the Twins get lucky with a high school pitcher pick for once.