Dman

Given how things stand I think one of the two catchers will be there at number 8 and at the very least there will be an elite bat at number 8. Not a great year for shortstops this year IMO. I think the more plodding position player bats will be available to the Twins but will have to wait and see. The Cubs or Nats might grab Lesko since he has ace potential and that is so hard to find. Certainly he is a risky bet but the payoff could be huge. We know first hand how good Santana was with his elite changeup. It is a feel pitch though and after TJ that could be problematic. Hard to say. If a team a head of us does grab a pitcher then there will be more options for hitters for us. The Twins are pretty risk averse and seem to be in more need of bats than arms so I could see them skipping on Lesko if he is still there. They also seem to feel they can identify arms later in the draft and make them work. Depending on who is there at number 8 it might be hard for them to go pitcher. I would like to know where fangraphs stands on the pitching in this draft as I feel they have better analysis for arms than the other sites. They haven't updated in a while now.

Yeah I agree. That first year is just instructs mainly anyway. He will have TJ surgery out of the way and shouldn't mess his time table up much. I think I like Lesko more now than before the news of surgery.

My concern is rule V at the end of this year with Steer, Canterino, SGL, Varland, SWR and Maybe Palacios or Wallner it is going to be hard to protect everybody. Guys with good eye's have a tendency to make it though look at Baddoo, Lamonte Wade. So hopefully things sort themselves out but I am concerned they might leave him unprotected.

I think the OP is correct on this one. Last year (2021) Sano's OPS in April was 550. BA was .111 for the month. Not sure why he is so snake bit in April, maybe ask Correa? At any rate his numbers last year didn't pick up until mid May so there are a few more weeks of bad games ahead most likely. By the end of May for the Month of May he had a 750 OPS and for the month of June he had an 800 OPS. Not great numbers for who he should be as a 1st baseman but not horrible either. Looking at it another way he has been so bad to this point he has no where to go but up. I have been saying this the last three years but I am still a Sano believer and I think he is going to have a good year this year maybe even a great one.

CES with 2 more hits. Don't know how the guy does it but is just uncanny when it comes to contact. Hajjar is a K machine but his WHIP is horrible. Giving up way too much contact. Haven't seen him pitch but disappointed in the numbers so far. I kind of thought Derek Rodriguez was washed up but he looks pretty good to me. Not sure he can catch on with the Twins but he seems like he could be a good emergency arm for some team. I would be surprised if Fedko works out as he climbs the levels but he has been a steal of a pick at number 12 last year. Seems to have a really good approach and looks destined for High A after the all star break. Jullien still has his Arraez eye at the plate drawing three more walks. I hope they hang onto this guy his ability to control the strike zone has to make him successful just has to.

Yeah given the issue with the Twins pen arms I could see Vallimont gone as soon as rosters move back to 26 man. Hopefully with various DFA's at that time he can slip through unclaimed.

OK I am joining the complain wagon train. Thielbar once again was not able to find the strike zone and appeared especially scared to put anything in the the strike zone against righties. It is the reason they sent Pagan in who has turned into a one trick pony that isn't fooling anyone either. The low slider isn't working bud. They seem to be able to identify and lay off that pitch and not throwing strikes early in the count makes for walks and messy innings. I can see why San Diego was happy to send him off via trade. It was cold out there and that does affect certain pitchers and hitters so hard to say those guys won't look better in better conditions but the reason you warm up in the pen is to be able to throw strikes and both those failed to do that again. It cost Paddack the win and nearly the game. On a positive note Paddack looked good out there. I was surprised they sent him back out for the 6th but given what the pen looks like I guess I can see why they would want to get as much out the starters as possible. I can get used to Kepler hitting lefties and not being an automatic out against them. Urshela has been impressive. I can see why New York fans didn't love it when he was traded to the Twins. I did not get to see the Twins win live as I turned off the game after the 8th inning when the top of the order went down. The Wolves lost late, The Wild lost late, it looked like the Twins fate was sealed but they must have some mojo this year as they broke the trend and accidently found a way to win. I am happy they are over 500 and looks like this division is up for grabs.

Those 7 to 10 year deals don't make sense for revenue sharing teams. The Twins will be better off short and long term dumping Correa for Lewis who will cost much less and while he won't likely produce right away he shouldn't be that far off of Correa's production especially as he ages. If Correa was willing to do a home town discount in the 25M range maybe the Twins could squeeze that in but I don't see them doing that as they are averse to long term deals. They almost didn't sign Buxton long term. Correa staying is a very, very, long shot. If he plays well some bigger market team will gobble him up.

I don't see how they could have gone backwards after winning 4 in a row but having them at 19 or 22 this early in the season isn't out of the realm of possibility. They are 8-8 which put them around 15 or 16 in the league. 4 other teams are only a game behind so depending on how you feel about the Twins long term you could have them behind those teams and others. It is kind of too early for these ranking to reflect much IMO. Still if it were me at this point in the season record would be my main determining factor but I suppose if offense is all you look at then the Twins would be lower. Not sure what criteria they use for these things. Maybe favorite color factors in or the teams they generally like or maybe it is some scientific calculation they have come up with hard to say. But moving a team down after a four game win streak might be one of the dumbest things I have heard of to this point.

Yeah after his start today he should clear when teams drop down. Most teams can't afford an arm like his on the 40 man.

I have seen other boards dropping Berry because they feel he might be position less. It would be nice to have a switch hitter who is good from both sides of the plate as it is really, really hard to find that but having another 40 graded runner that is not a catcher is less than ideal IMO. if we want Berry odds are he will be there at number 8. If Parada is gone and he most likely will be then I think Susac would be my next choice. I know he is tall for a catcher but so was Mauer. He looks to have a decent bat should be solid defensively and should have power. It is an important position and one of need for the Twins as well. I also could be convinced to go with Gavin Cross who has some speed and could be a Kepler replacement maybe in fairly short order. Still I would prefer if the Twins could get a high school bat in the first round. If Holiday or Collier were there I would take them. Granted they would take longer to get to the Twins but they could start building another wave of younger players like Rodriguez, Miller, Cavaco, Rosario, Urbina which could replenish the MLB ranks in 4 or 5 years. Would be nice if the Twins were a spot or two higher but as you stated they should still be in the range for an elite bat if they want one.

I don't think I love the idea of paying Correa more than Buxton. I know it shouldn't matter but the optics don't look good to me. I know I am way more risk averse than most people, but I don't think I want Correa at 30M per year for 7 to 10 years. I really, really like the guy but we will be paying a premium for out of prime years and I don't feel like that is something this team can afford. I like the deal we have for him right now. Would love to have him all three prime years but I think that would be it for me.

I think even in my scenario it is going to be hard to get anything for either player as they both require the acquiring team to add them to their 40 man thus they would have to lose a player to add one of them. Your scenario works better as the acquiring team would be taking someone off their 40 man to put someone on it but given the past and current performance of both Strotman and Vallimont their value is pretty low right now. The Twins would likely have to include something else as well to get a deal done. I like your idea of trading for a stronger lefty though.

I think there is going to be pressure to jettison Strotman and Vallimont. Would be nice if they could work out a minor trade with one or both of them for an arm further a way like in the GCL or A ball. Some lottery ticket type so that we don't have to lose them for nothing as I am certain both would be picked up. I just think Smeltzer, Minaya, Cotton, or Cano would be better options than either of those guys at this time and we have options behind them so not the end of the world to lose two guys that likely won't be able to help the MLB club this year in favor of guys who can.

Yeah most likely they send Winder Down and wait for the inevitable injury or someone to massively under perform. We will have to wait and see. Things can still happen before cut down day. I agree with you on Jax he has been solid at times and he can work multiple innings if effective. He lacks a strike out pitch which leaves him vulnerable at times IMO. Still he is a good strong arm and I don't see the Twins DFA'ing him with options left. I still think Winder could make the pen stronger rather than weaker, but that is just my opinion. I am sure the FO is looking at things beyond what I see as a fan.

Christian Encarnation-Strand is a bit of an enigma to me. Since he started pro ball he has maintained a .500 BABIP and K rate around 28%. His walk rate is super low. I am all for aggressive contact but isn't there a point where pitchers won't throw him strikes and let him get himself out? Is he Rosario version 2 where he can hit pretty much anything even pitches that are not strikes but unable to control the strike zone? My concern is that like Rosario that there is a point where pitchers use his aggressiveness against him. I assume at that point he finally works the Strike zone? Or is he doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past? I love the swing. I love the contact but remain concerned there will be a point where he won't get good pitches to hit because pitchers will get him to get himself out. At any rate he has been unbelievable to this point. Simeon Woods Richardson with no runs allowed in a league that tends to have very good hitters is impressive. His K-9 is down but his stuff must be tough to square up because he has been efficient getting guys out. Those hittablity and control problems we were worried about appear to be non-existent so far as his WHIP is .59. It is very early but so far so good if he wants to join the big club this year. For such a little guy Henriquez has really good movement on his pitches almost Berrios like. I have no idea what to expect from him but his delivery looked silky smooth and he looked confident on the mound. Hopefully he keeps the ball in the park as home run suppression will make or break him from what I can tell. He could be a good relief option if needed for the Twins as he is already added to the 40 man. Only 21 and knocking on the door he might be the best young pitcher in the system right now. He'll have to battle it out with SWR I guess. Loving that lineup of pitchers at A ball. Stankiewicz, Raya, Hajjar, Festa, Adams. All of them have looked good so far. I am intrigued by Festa who was taken in the 12th round I believe. His college stats weren't bad but his velocity seemed low. Not sure how he is hitting 96-97 now at times. I figured he would be a slow starter kind of like Pierson Ohl but he has looked good so far. Hard to believe how the Twins find arms so far down the board. Those are the four guys I am going to highlight but there are lot's of guys off to good starts this year.

I get what everyone is saying and the Twins likely will send Winder down but you have to look at the risk of piggy backing versus the risk of a traditional pen IMO. If one part of your piggy back can't make their 3 to 4 innings that is going to decimate a pen only 6 arms deep. If you piggy back Archer\Winder and Gray\Paddack and they pitch into the 8th inning together a pen 6 arms deep is more than enough. Here is the thing though, instead of Winder would you prefer Stashak, Coulombe or Jax? Yeah now you have 7 relievers but Stashak and Coulombe would be lucky to go 1 inning let alone two and Jax can go multiple innings but has he been better than Winder to this point. It feels like this pen stalls out at Duran, Pagan, Smith, Thielbar and maybe Duffy. 3 pretty strong arms and the next three are anybody's guess. Is that really better than keeping Winder around? Also how many innings are we thinking Winder is going to pitch this year anyway 100 or so? Having him piggy back might be a way to use him all year instead of shutting him down later in the year. Until Winder struggles more and proves he doesn't belong I think there is less risk in keeping him up than sending him down at least IMO.

I tend to agree with you. Not sure why they wouldn't piggy back more and if they did what you suggest with Winder then they could reset the pen every 5th day to some degree (that is if Winder continues to pitch well). And this pen isn't exactly the teams strong suite to begin with. Given how well Winder has been doing I kind of hate to see them send him down. He is 25 already so no service time concerns and they should be using him in his prime years. He has been holding his own to this point. He needs the MLB experience. Keep him up at least until he implodes or has a couple of bad games.

With all the dings and bruises catchers have it is no wonder they can easily slump at the plate. While I miss Garvers bat (even though he off to a slow start for Texas) he had his fair share of injuries in Minnesota as well. I think you pretty much have to plan on needing three catchers to get through a season minimum. I think most of the board was surprised the Twins went with just 2 to start the season but given their plan to limit starting pitcher innings they probably had no choice. I don't see Godoy as much different than Rortvedt and Cisco might be even better with the bat than Ben as well hard to say at this point. Would I rather have Garver as a replacement sure but I think the Twins have OK options for the moment. Lot's of teams have black hole bats for catchers. While not ideal it can be a postion where you can get away with less than ideal offensive production. I assume the reason they brought Godoy up instead of Cisco is that Godoy passed through waivers once already and they might not want to risk losing Cisco if they needed more room for another player. Cisco looks like he has the better record with the bat. I hope Jeffers stays healthy he is the best catcher we have on the team right now.

Actually to this point in the season Sanchez's OPS is higher than Garvers and Urshela's is higher than Donaldson's. So to your point those guys would only be hurting us more than their replacements are at least to this point in the season. Garver always was a slow starter IMO. He will mash eventually. Donaldson no idea how he will do but have to believe he will warm up with the weather as well. At least for the first two weeks the Twins are winning those trades.

First let me say I am sad to see Thorpe go. He brought a lot of hope with him at the lower levels that we might have a strong lefty starter. He piled up the K's and kept the velocity up through 2019 and then things started to fall a part. Whether it was injury or that he just peaked is hard to say. His velocity was down from when he was younger and he started giving up too much hard contact. The Twins gave him a long time to try and get things right even keeping him on the 40 man all winter but he never quite found the stuff he once had. I wish him well and hope things still work out well for him. Smeltzer appears to back to his old self. At some point the Twins will need to put him back on the 40 man. He was great this spring and has been very good at AAA as well. At the very least they could use him as a long man lefty reliever. The way the season started I thought the AA lineup was going to be the weak link. With the weather warming so have the bats warmed up and Martin is now closing in on an 800 OPS after a brutal start to the season. Steer is still the best bat at least for the moment. Everyone up and down the lineup is hitting except Wallner who has a .073 batting average and 47% K rate. He can't hit a slow pitch softball right now and has been a rally killer automatic out so far this season. Vallimont still looks Shaky out there to me. 3 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings is not ideal. Hoping he can straighten things out as the weather warms up. The pitching is good and the hitting is good at High A so it is no wonder that they are 10-2 at this point. It is a tough lineup with Prato and CES at the top. Sawyer Gipson-Long and Povich are two best pitchers and Headrick has been right there with them to this point. Still Mooney, Legumina and Laweryson are pretty solid as well. As long as this team stays together they should be tough to beat. The muscles need to find their bats if they want to win more games. With Rodriguez in an 0 for 9 slump the other bats need to heat up. The only consistent bat in that lineup seems to be Fedko. Varland at AA and Headrick and High A should be more must watch Twins affiliate baseball.

Jeremy was pretty close to nailing this one. Actually he didn't think quite big enough. Susana was rated slightly lower than Medina in the Padres system. Susana is big 6'6" compared to the 6'1" Medina but right now given what we know it looks like Medina has the better secondary's. It will be interesting to see how Medina does as I think he is rule V eligible in 2023 and it looks like he will be in short season ball this year as he hasn't pitched yet. Kind of nice to replace the loss of Petty with another fairly high octane arm that is only 19 years old. Hard to say what the outcomes will be, but on the surface it looks like the Twins did well in this deal. 3 years of Paddack, 2 years of Pagan, if he makes it 6 years of Medina for one year of Rogers, and 5 years of Rooker if he makes it, who might have been lost for nothing. Oh and the Twins had to pay 7M of Rogers salary. I hope this is an arm that works out. I will be watching to see how he does this year. If he gets the walks under control and maintains that K rate I have to believe he will make it as at least a reliever.

He might be Petty like in the end hard to say with both of them so young. I think I like Petty's chances better though. However, I also don't know much about Medina either. Good Velo with a good slider should keep him moving through the system with decent results. Hoping that changeup keeps him a starter but if he ticks up in the pen he could be a hard throwing pen arm as well. Pretty good get (nice potential) for a PTBNL.

I am getting a little scared we might just miss out on the elite hitters in this draft. Hopefully more guys bubble up especially pitchers so we can snag a good hitter.

That seems high considering the Padres only got one year of Rogers. The only way I can see that it justifies a return this high to me is if I guess they believe Rooker is going to turn out in time Or is this the extra money they kicked in? Not sure but a pretty good get considering what else the Twins got in trade. Kid has a live arm but hasn't pitched this year yet. Lot's of walks so plenty of control issue but he is only 19. It is just that looking at Cruz and the good velocity and poor control this looks like a boom or bust deal IMO. Always nice to have young arms with great potential in the system. Not quite a Petty replacement but seems better than normal for a PTBNL.