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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    OK so I predicted a sweep for Cleveland and there were plenty of times in this game where it could have happened but baseball is so weird and unpredictable that of course with a one run lead the bullpen hung on when they couldn't hold three run leads in the last two games. Bases loaded no outs with Smith struggling I thought for certain the game was lost there. No way he could wriggle out of that without some damage and yet he did. When Duran hit the batter in the 8th I thought he might unravel but he got the job done. Get to the 9th Duran takes down homer man Franmil and I am thinking maybe game over and then I see Thielbar come in and I smile and say to myself they are going to give this one away. Sure enough a double to start things off and I was certain this game at least goes extra's unless he gives up a home run and the next thing you know the Twins come away with the win. Even all my negativity could not sink the Twins today and yet the other two games I felt like they would win and they collapsed. I think the baseball gods just like to toy with my emotions and make me look bad. Nice win for the Twins. Glad they got the W for Smeltzer. Where would this team be without him? If you would have told me Smeltzer would be one of our best starters this year I would have rolled my eyes and laughed at you and yet here we are with the baseball gods sticking it to me again. At least this time in a good way.
  2. Dman
    I don't think they are in free fall mode but there are enough warts that they might be just a 500 type team. Losing steaks and winning streaks happen in baseball all the time. We have some younger players that could improve in Larnach, Miranda, and Kirilloff so you never know but just given what we have seen. Cleveland looks pretty Solid the White Sox could go on a run if they get healthy and the Twins have the worst pen of those two teams so I don't like our chances at a division title right now. It is baseball though and the unthinkable can happen at any moment so you can't count anybody out. It just kind of looks like the odds are against us at this time.
  3. Dman
    I believe I said it last week but I am getting good vibes on Neto. He looks like he can stick at short. Had only a 7% K rate this year so he can make contact which is a good thing. He is a little light on the power stroke but the Twins have been pretty good at helping guys get there. I think he is a solid up the middle player that could be a plus defender and plus bat. If the top 7 fall like the Mocks think they will then Neto is my choice. If any of the other top 7 guys fall to 8 might have to rethink things but Neto is growing on me at pick 8. Cross probably is an OK pick as well but there were questions about strike zone recognition and with all the outfielders in play right now for Minnesota it isn't an exciting pick IMO. A player with up the middle potential seems like a better use of pick 8 to me all things being equal. I don't like Jung either and his bat has fallen off as well. I could be convinced on Berry since he is a switch hitter but sitting at 8 do you really want to take a DH? I was thinking Young with an under-slot deal at 8 but if Neto is there and with his ability to make contact he feels like a safer pick to me. I could end up being wrong but I think Young is going to fall down the board. Will have to wait and see. Anyway that is my take.
  4. Dman
    IMO the Twins were always going to get reeled in at some point. I thought it was going to be Chicago that caught them but this Cleveland team looks very Piranha like. The Twins had that big winning streak early and were gifted some games by Chicago and Detroit. The rest has been pretty mediocre. They just are not very consistent and the pen has been a thorn in their side since the first game of the season. Starting pitching has been duct tape patch work. The offense can shine one game and get easily shut out the next. The team is kind of a house of horrors in some regards. To me it looks like Cleveland finally found the offense they have been missing for the last 3 years. Instead of losing close games due to lack of offense they are winning close games. They have a better starting staff and a deeper bullpen honestly barring injury they look like the better team to me. I still think the Twins are a good team but my dream that they somehow might steal the division is pretty much gone at this point. After they get swept today there should be no looking back for Cleveland unless the injury bug bites them.
  5. Dman
    I don't think we will know the answer to that until after the season. If they both have sustained success I could see them maybe make a move with Kepler.
  6. Dman
    I tend to agree. Scouts are still looking for specific traits in players that they think they can build on. They are looking for players with untapped potential. You could argue that it is those players in those rounds where the scouts earn their money. Everyone knows who the top 100 players are even the fans. We don't know which guys are going to work out but for the most part the top 200 players are set except for the order they will be picked. Not sure it takes much scouting acumen to determine those players. Players that look like sure things in the top 100 are not all going to work out. We see it every year no matter how good the organization. Some consensus top 10 picks are not going to work out and that is pretty much the entire industry scouting players that come up with these rankings. So scouting and top 100 lists are never perfect predictors of success at the MLB level even when the entire industry agrees. I agree and it is pretty much proven that the further out you get the less likely a player makes it but any players that do make it from those rounds is essentially found money and the team wasn't just throwing darts at the board on who they decided to pick. They picked guys with specific tools and skillsets they felt they might be able to develop. Sure most of them are not going to work but I still think you have to give credit to the organization for recognizing talent that was more deeply hidden and or had the ability to be developed. Finding players that can play at the MLB level not even All-Star caliber players but even just a dominant relief arm has significant value to the organization so those lower picks matter IMO.
  7. Dman
    Nice to see Henriquez not implode and give up a crooked number in the early innings. Still he did give up 2 Home Runs and a homer prone pitcher is never a good thing. They don't make it to the Majors so he has work to do. Was happy to see SGL bounce back after a tough AA debut. Gave up a bit too much contact but I think he has the stuff to make it. This is an important stretch for him in a hitters league. For a 13th round pick Festa has been impressive. If he keeps this up I have to believe he gets some looks at the AA level yet this year. Glad to see Anthony Escobar continuing to K guys after coming back from TJ surgery. I wonder if he is completely a pen arm moving forward or if they will give him another shot in the rotation. Still if he can regain his dominant form he cold be a good future arm.
  8. Dman
    Yeah his K rate has always been brutal and it generally doesn't translate to MLB that well unless the walk rate is good as well. The Rooker comparison is a scary one. Right now Rooker is tearing up AAA with 385 OBP and .992 OPS. That is a slightly higher OPS than Wallner has at AA. Even with those number the Padres haven't called Rooker up but that may have more to do with defense than his bat. He is not a good left fielder and with Hosmer at 1st and I assume DH spoken for there might be no place to safely play him. Also with his K rate still at 30% and his known difficulty with breaking balls maybe they don't see his bat as ready either. So yeah I agree Wallner has some things to prove yet. Mainly that he can hit breaking pitches because Rooker didn't seem to be able to and Kirilloff and Larnach struggled with that transition as well. It will be interesting to see if he can make the jump. He has the arm for right but can play left as well. Not a ton of speed but I think better than Rooker. With his walks rising hopefully he can move forward with a more balanced approach and get better pitches to hit or at least on base with a walk. Wallner started the first month of the year with 45% K rate so he has gotten better but I agree that it would be nice to see that number around 25% or so with walks in the 10 to 15% range as that would give him a better chance once he moves up.
  9. Dman
    I think you need to take into consideration that he is only 19 at least 2 years younger than most players in that league. I f you look at last year and what Cavaco and Urbina did he seems far more advanced than both players. In fact he is hitting better than Cavaco right now and Cavaco is 21. So if you factor that in I think his bat looks good already. He could end up a utility player but I think a lot would have to go wrong for that to happen given his balanced approach at the plate and the fact he will be most likely be young for all levels as he moves up.
  10. Dman
    That is some good analysis and I feel pretty much the same way. The Dodgers will get their pick and I think with that cheating scandal with Houston I think they hang onto Turner and spurn Correa. I guess I am not sure I understand the Red Sox reluctance on Bogaerts? Are they no longer willing to box themselves into 10 year deals? Are they thinking like you that there really isn't a market for 10 year SS deals or do they want to make a play for Turner or Correa. I just don't see Story being a long term answer there but maybe he is good enough and doesn't break the bank for them. Given the money the Phils handed out this year and their desperate need for more pitching I can't see them being able to afford any of the top three shortstops even if they want to. Unless of coarse they can work out some trades. The Cub's have the money but would likely be wasting some prime years on whoever they get because they aren't ready to compete anytime soon IMO. Angels seem out to. If other teams don't want to do those 10 years deals I think the Twins could compete with a seven year deal with multiple opt outs. I think for the right player the Twins could make a play for that length of contract.
  11. Dman
    I think given where things are today those are pretty objectively fair grades. I still think Lewis ends up an A and Enlow will need more time but he should get back to B status and certainly C by the mid point next year. I think Jeffers and Canterino can end up B's as well. I think the grades reflect where they stand right now but I think there is solid potential for the final grade to be better than this. I see the rational for Steer being an A but that seems a bit high to me. I think of an A as All Star or very near All Star caliber player but this is your criteria and that is fine. What you can see is that there have been a fair number of complete misses at the top of the draft. I think your identifying the power hitting guys (Rooker, Sabato), they selected didn't work out well and Wallner was on his way to being the 3rd one not to work out but has OPS'd his way out of it for now. Still has to make the big leagues though so far from a sure B IMO. I really appreciate the work you put in and those are the only quibbles I have and they are minor.
  12. Dman
    Yeah I think Turner and Bogaerts will be looking for those types of AAV's and years as well. All three seem clumped together offensively but only Correa with the platinum glove. While I would like to think keeping the AAV around 35M per year on a 7 year deal with an opt out after year's three and 5 could get it done I am likely in dream land. He really only gets one shot at this so likely going to make a top revenue team pay big and go 10 years adding another 100M to the deal. I am sure he likes it in Minnesota but unless he has a Byron Buxton attitude he likely isn't going to take less to stay here and the Twins aren't going to box themselves into a ten year deal. Final analysis I just don't see Minnesota getting it done at those dollars and years. Also looking into the future it limits any homegrown stars they can keep as well. Also if we do have good players coming up then Arb salaries could make things tough as well. Just not sure Mr Pohlad is going to keep upper limit payrolls long term either. This is gamble that seems to big for this team.
  13. Dman
    Let me just say given the Matt Wallner I have seen the last three years I would have never guessed he would ever walk more than strike out for the week. If he keeps his approach balanced he could be a monster bat. Still needs to prove he can take those walks pitchers give power hitters. If he does look out because he swings a mean bat. 13 Home runs on the year already with an outside chance for 30 on the year but fairly likely at least 25. I was down on him for a long time but he is finally changing my mind. With Steer gone and Isola out it seems like Wichita's offense just isn't as productive. Jullien is trying to be Steer 2.0 and has been close to as productive but not quite elite level yet. Isola was a tough out as was Helman so AA could use some reinforcements on the bats. Pitching hasn't been quite as good either so hopefully they can turn things around with what they have. I don't remember much about Rubel Cespedes but he caught my eye right away in the box scores. I kind of thought his numbers would go down but he just keeps getting hits game after game. He could stand to take more walks but with an OPS of 950 maybe just let him use the CES method of aggressive swings that keep your OPS high regardless. Should be a fun bat to follow. Hoping Baez can keep his bat hot as well we can always use more centerfield talent.
  14. Dman
    I had my doubts as well. With pretty much average tools across the board it felt like a reach for a Sup 1 round pick. For his first year I am very impressed with his balanced approach at the plate and defense. Defense was my greatest concern for Miller sticking at short with an arm graded 55 and speed 50 he didn't have much room for error to be moved off the position. Still in a very SSS he looked like a big leaguer this spring and like the OP said errors are not the entire story when it comes to defense but IMO they do tend to predict who can stay at a position long term. He looks like he can stay there right now. Would like to see a bit more contact and harder contact but if he continues to play as he has been, he has to see his first year as a success and worthy of moving up to High A next year.
  15. Dman
    I voted to buy. They have prospect capital so should be able to get at minimum some rental relievers as they shouldn't cost much. I agree with Nicksaviking in that they have too many guys they need to protect so if they can make their team better this year by losing a few prospects why not do it. The Twins are leading their division in June if they are major seller's that would just be sad at this point. While the offense does like to sputter and the pen a bit of a weakness I still think this is a team that can be in the hunt until the end. When you are there you have to try and get over the hump. What happens next year is no guarantee. Injuries can devastate potential in a hurry. Bank on today as well as tomorrow. I think the Twins can do both.
  16. Dman
    The one player that they might move at the Deadline would be Sano. Given the offensive options at their disposal they likely don't have room for him next year and what value does he bring if he is only going to play for the team a couple of months and be a marginal difference maker at the plate and detriment in the field. I think there is good chance they move on without him this year. I don't think the Twins are going to mess with team chemistry at the deadline so I don't see any of the others being traded. While possible it seems very unlikely the Twins would be out of the running for at least a wild card spot so why not keep a guy like Urshela as good veteran depth. There is no one better defensively in right field than Kepler and his bat has been OK this year. If they trade Correa it better be a monster deal as that would really hurt this teams chances. If the Twins add odds are it will be relievers and they have some prospect capital that they can use and I would guess they will. In the offseason yes I could see Urshela, Kepler and Correa all gone but unlikely at the deadline IMO.
  17. Dman
    Don't want to jinx him but just want to point out that so far in June Wander Javier has an .890 OPS. His K rate is under 30% and his walk rate could be better but not horrible. In June he is slugging .491 with a 400 OBP. almost three weeks of very good offense and he has come up big with men on base as well. Certainly not the black hole bat he has been. Still need to see more but maybe just maybe he is a bit of a late bloomer? Maybe he has figured things out more at the plate? His full season numbers still are not good but a strong finish could give us hope that he is a viable option in the system.
  18. Dman
    Congrats to the Kernals on Clinching a playoff berth! Wisconsin was right behind them until the last couple of weeks when they started to stumble. CES's bat is back as he has an 1.060 OPS in June and he had a 3 for 5 night last night. Povich with another dominant start and you have to believe he gets moved up around the all star break if not sooner. I think some of that High A fire power is going to moving up to AA especially on the pitching side. Not sure what is going on with Miller as he has been slumping pretty badly for a while now. Hopefully he finds that stroke and get things going again. Rosario looks like he might have figured some things out as is on fire in June with a .962 OPS in a league that is tough on hitters. He has brought his season OPS up to .740 so the three 19 years old's (Rodriguez, Miller, Rosario) have all done well at times this year and look like they will candidates to move up next year. It has been a good year to watch MiLB baseball in the Twins system with two teams clinching the playoffs and Wichita still in the hunt for a spot. St Paul might not be playoff bound but they had a lot guys move up the MLB level though as well. Hoping for good draft to keep the good times rolling.
  19. Dman
    I guess I am going to have to rescind my Bundy is an automatic loss comment. He looked very efficient out there. To my eye though he still gave up a lot of solid contact it was just that those balls either went foul or were hit at guys in the field this time around. Still I think that was the longest start for a Twins pitcher this season so have to give him props for a really excellent performance. I guess the next question is can sustain this type of performance or anything close to it for the rest of the season? I like how fearless he is in the zone but I haven't been a fan of his results the last month and a half. To be honest I was expecting another start like Smelter had the night before but was pleasantly surprised with what Bundy was able to do especially going 8 innings. That really helps the pen. The bats were really good but they still are a Jekyl and Hyde group. You just never know what you are going to get night to night. Arraez 2 for 2 with a walk, impressive. Nice to see Jeffers make hard contact after getting fooled his last time up. Hopefully the Twins find a way to take the series and go into the Cleveland series with some momentum.
  20. Dman
    Hadn't thought about it that much but that is a good list. I don't disagree with any of the top 7. Will be a very interesting off season next year.
  21. Dman
    I will say it has taken me quite a while to come around on defensive metrics and I think there are others that wonder if how they are calculated in WAR is completely accurate. However, They do a ton of research and comparison on this and with all the technology they have to measure, it is more than just an eye test now. Still I will say I have enjoyed Urshela as player on and off the field. I have been amazed by some of the plays he has made and I think he is a good player. I just don't see the Twins keeping him when they have younger options that shouldn't be much worse and cost significantly less. If the Twins get lucky one the guys replacing could end up with more WAR. Given the roster crunch they have right I just don't see room for him next year.
  22. Dman
    Of any player on the Twins being traded at the end of the of this season I would say Urshela would be on the top of my list. A Steer, Miranda platoon is the most likely replacement. I don't see the Twins paying for a guy with maybe average offense and replaceable defense at 3rd when they have two cheaper guys ready to contribute with higher future upside. The Twins also have a lot of players to protect from Rule V so they will have to slim down somewhere and Urshela seems a likely candidate IMO. I get that he has made some amazing defensive plays but his defensive metrics don't live up to the hype of those few great plays. If the Twins do make the playoffs this year I believe his veteran experience is still an asset but after this year I would try and trade him and spend that money some where else most likely on pitching.
  23. Dman
    Yeah and you need that change in your pocket for opposite side batters so I get it. Development takes time but waiting is frustrating and limited 40 man space makes it tougher and needing another arm or two on the 26 man makes it even tougher still.
  24. Dman
    Yeah I don't know what they are doing but it is starting to make me wonder. I get that you have to be able to throw strikes and especially when you need them but I wonder if they missing things as well. They dumped Vallimont and his 7 plus ERA and over 2 WHIP and now granted it is a small sample 8 innings pitched size but Baltimore has him pitching with a 1.13 ERA and .75 WHIP. I don't think he had a stretch that good with the Twins this year. Granted those numbers won't last but it makes you wonder how they could help him so fast.
  25. Dman
    Those are both good points. 21 is very young to be at AAA but to Nicksavikings point the Twins haven't done much to help him develop to this point. While he has a good K9 for a 21 year old at AAA his walks have increased and his Home Run rate has increased as well which is what drives his ERA to higher levels than it should be. I know he is at a higher level than last year but just like Strotman he seems to be pitching worse than he was before we got him. You would like to think that the pitching coach\organization would be thinking hmmm he is giving up HR's on fastballs we should tweak that. Throw those less. Throw them in a different spot. Keep them down. Keep them up. Whatever it takes to help him with HR suppression because everything else looks good. He literally has been giving up too many free passes and then giving up HR's on top of it. Fix that and he might be a solution sooner rather than later. Maybe he can't control his secondary's I don't know I haven't watched him much but I would have thought they would\could have done more to help him by now as you are right he is taking up a valuable 40 man spot so there is no time to lose to make him more valuable than he is right now. Pitching at that level is hard, I get it and he is very young as well so plenty of time to get better. I think we all just thought he would be better than a 7.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP given how he pitched last year and given how happy the Twins seemed to be getting him via trade.
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