Dman

I am interested to see what they end up doing. He said they talked about the trade market and I wonder what that would look like for them given they seem to prefer not to extend pitchers. Well this next week should be interesting and with a couple of 40 man spots opening from Maeda and Enlow and money available they should be able to make pretty much any big move they want to.

I know we have had this debate a few times before but the shot clock in basketball was initially supposed to be bad for the sport with players rushing shots etc but IMO the shot clock literally saved Basketballs pace of play with Zone defenses slowing games to a standstill it was getting brutal to watch. Pace of play generally adds to the excitement and keeps fans more involved IMO. Not that a pitch clock would have that much influence on a baseball game but it does help keep the pace play moving. From what I understand as pitchers get used to the clock in the minors it isn't a real issue for them anymore and most seem to like keeping the game moving so for guys that are used to it I don't see it as much of an issue anymore. Just as there is strategy by slowing down the pace of play there will be just as much strategy keeping things moving with limited time. I look forward to the pitch clock and given how few issues there have been in the minors don't see it being a big deal in the majors either.

I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade Arraez as there isn't anyone who can replace him just yet. The other issue is I don't see that many teams that would need his services at least at 2nd base and his OPS isn't a logical fit for 3rd base IMO. Some teams that could use him are still rebuilding and teams at the top already have players just as good or better than Arraez. If you squint maybe the Mariners or a couple of other teams but not many would consider him an upgrade, but for the most part I just don't see high demand for him. The main issue is his OPS is not spectacular. Yes he is a good OnBase guy but he has little power and is not a threat to steal bases. He has limited utility. If you are going to trade a player like that it seems like the deadline would extract the most value. Some team with an injured 2nd or 3rd baseman who see's his value might be willing to overpay if desperate enough. Still Arraez has quite a bit of value to the Twins until one of Steer, Jullien, Miranda, or Martin look like like they are ready for primetime. Until the Twins literally have someone ready I would hang onto him unless the offer was just too good to pass up.

I would be fine with the Twins taking a risk on trading for Montas but only if the Twins could extend him. While you can never say never I think we need to keep in mind that the Twins have been averse to long term extensions for pitchers. So assuming they would be willing or even able to get an extension done it goes against all previous club history (for recent history see Jose Berrios). As others have already stated with all the unknowns in the rotation it feels like the prospect cost and timing are far from ideal to only have Montas for two years. I think the OP has this right. Sure the Twins could push all their chips onto the table this year but why do that now when the odds\timing seem so poor? It just seems far more prudent to build a young established rotation and then over pay for the guy who could put you over the top. The Twins are not currently in that position. A little patience could take this team a long way. We need some of those pitching prospect's to pan out and that is risky as well but given where we are, I still think that is the best play.

I know there is a lot of stuff out there about 100MPH high school arms not making it, but I really liked where the Twins picked him at 26. I like the level of risk reward there. While he tops out at 100 I like that he appears to be fine sitting at around 95 and only reaching back occasionally for the big time heater. Right now it looks like he is doing everything he can to be successful. I assume there will be some growing pains in there as he learns what works and what doesn't at the various levels. I like where his head is at. His mindset seems sound and if he is putting in the work, kind of like Berrios always seemed to, I think he is going to be all right. If he stays within himself and keeps his arm healthy I think Petty is gonna be a good one.

Nice article! he was another favorite of mine. Always played well and fun to watch. That a nice outfield when he and Lyman were together. Never looked into how he did after he left the Twins and was surprised how well he did after leaving.

Like so many Twins prospects this year I guess he will have to prove the bat and plate discipline are for real at AAA and then likely have to wait for an injury to get his shot at a spot on the big club. He was a joy to watch last year. One of the few bright spots in an injury riddled minor league season. Looking forward to him being a dangerous bat in the lineup for years to come.

I don't know what to think about Rocker. There are lot's of different opinions out there. I guess ultimately it does worry me that the Mets did not sign him even though they built their draft around him. It seems like when pitchers medicals cause red flags it hasn't worked out too well for the teams that grab them. I think at pick number 8 I would pass on Rocker but I am a pretty risk averse person. If the medicals are out there now then I guess get your doctors to take a look and try to get a feel for what the risk is and go from there. If they agree with the Mets assessment I wouldn't use my first rounder on him.

I generally like what Law has to say and I think he generally knows what's, what when it comes to prospects but when it comes to pitchers I don't trust him and analysts in general that much. Since he is going to nitpick I am going to nitpick some. I don't have Keith's old prospect lists but in 2018 MLB.com had Tristen McKenzie rated as their Guardians number 2 prospect, Bieber at 8 and Civale at 10. Bieber was rated as maybe a number 4 pitcher in a rotation, Civale they felt was a bullpen arm. McKenzie was supposed to be a number 2 or 3 starter. No one had Bieber in their top 100 not Fangraphs, not mlb.com and most likely not Keith Law and yet he is the one who won the Cy Yong award in 2020. He is the dominant pitcher of those 3. Even Civale who was tenth best in the system has done better at least to this point than the highly rated McKenzie. What does this mean? Analysts have a really hard time identifying what impact pitchers will have once they reach the majors. This is just one extreme example and we have to remember what prospect lists are. They are not ultimate projection systems, they are based on the potential seen in players and projected out to their highest perceived potential. Just because they are ranked higher doesn't mean they will reach all the potential ascribed to them. Just because guys are ranked lower or not at all doesn't mean they cannot become impact players at the MLB level looking at you Luis Arraez who pretty much all analyst's left in the dust. Keith Law never liked Berrios until very late and IMO doesn't have the greatest pulse on pitching prospects. So I guess I take what he says with a grain of salt. Cleveland's Bieber who had good control and was ranked at number 8 turned out OK. Maybe a guy like Josh Winder with good control can do something similar? When it comes to pitching prospects I am not one to trust an industry prediction because they are just plain wrong too often IMO.

Yeah there is a good chance a bottom team would add in him in rule V as I think his floor is utility player. I can see why the Twins didn't add him as the bat is still a bit of a question mark. He had a .779 OPS at AA if he were to move to the majors he would likely lose at least 100 point of his OPS and could lose up to 200 points. So that would put him as 600 OPS player or less. Still Simmons wasn't much better than that last year and Palacios costs a lot less. A fair number of guys they have been looking at aren't much better than that either. Palacios might not be the long term answer at short for the Twins but he is one of the few guys in the system who looks close to ready and can actually play a decent shortstop. They must have thought they might have a chance for Story or maybe they believe Lewis can still step in at some point yet this year or they believe Palacios likely isn't quite ready and no one will take him in rule V. Hard to say but given the way things look right now I wish they would have protected him.

I just don't see Montas as a real option. You would have to trade the equivalent of SWR and Martin and possibly more to get a guy for two years since the Twins won't be able to extend him. Given the fact you are relying on two pitchers in Ober and Ryan who may or may not pan out for a full season and Bundy or Dobank who we are "hoping" will bounce back plus maybe a lack luster Odo or Pineda signing and you have to be an incredible optimist to see that all coming together and working out well. At least well enough to make some noise in the playoffs because if you are giving up high value assets that should be the goal not just 500 baseball. I think we have talked about this before but there are just too many unknowns this year especially on the pitching side but even some on the position player side to really go all in on a trade for someone IMO. When you have a more established team that is when you push the chips into the middle for a player. When you just need a guy or two to push you over the top ahead of the top level competition then sure make those deals but right now the way things stand with the Twins I don't see them in that position and therefor don't see it happening. I can see them trading for Odo or picking up Pineda. Veteran guys to fill in and make some sense especially if there is not going to be spring training. I do think their best course of action for better or worse is to find out what they have for young pitching. Gain some idea of what their young pitchers are capable of and re-asses from there. They need to know they have a solid staff before just throwing assets away.

Excellent story! I always wondered how it all came together. Thankfully it did because I have really enjoyed the content on this site. I never used to follow baseball all year round until I found this site. I also appreciate what the moderators do. I sometimes get a little out of line myself and need a reminder to tone down. It is nice to have a safe place to post your opinion even when many do not agree with it. It is a very professional site and one I do read on a daily basis. Thanks so much for sharing your love of baseball with all of us!

His story reads a bit like Bailey Ober's except that he has a plus fastball. Ober was dominant through the levels but could not stay healthy either until his MLB debut. So I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He is throwing harder and that might have something to do with how he injured himself. Have to make sure those mechanics line up and use those legs for torque not over compensate with the arm. For Canterino it just seems like a matter of the arm holding up and he will be a viable starter likely better than Bailey Ober. He just needs to stay within himself and stay healthy. I don't think he has been hurt before last year so I bet he will make changes to ensure he is healthy this coming year.

I guess I hadn't realized that. MLB.com has him at 17 and Fangraphs at 7 so you have a point that he could still be there. It is just that Seth just had him number 15 for just pitchers in the system and that is why I figured he wouldn't be top 6.

If we are adding someone to the 40 man Roster I would rather it be Palacios who has a decent glove can play shortstop and has shown power. Why in the world this FO likes to ignore there own guys boggles my mind sometimes. At any rate Palacios would be my vote unless the Twins do ultimately find something that makes more sense on the FA market.

Not 100 innings but 100 on the gun. I would protect Duran's arm especially this season and he will have to start at AAA and be dominant just to get a chance so there are plenty of ifs for this year. But two flame throwers would be nice.

Yeah I am kind of excited about the possibility of Alcala and Duran as pitchers that can throw 100 out of the pen. They could rotate them and always have a high octane arm to use. Having those types of arms can make a big difference especially come playoff time.

I think Ryan is still prospect Eligible so likely coming up soon. I think Strotman is likely out of the top 10 as he is in the teens on most lists I have seen. Still your point stands and I too am encouraged with the quality of the pitchers coming up. Most have mid 90's fastballs and plus secondary's so I am optimistic as well..

Not much to say that wasn't already said in the article. He hasn't played much the last two years so it is really hard to say just where he is at. Like the OP just hoping for a healthy season at this point. If that arm does return healthy and he can start that would be the best case scenario as he does seem to have special stuff.

Yeah sorry couldn't remember where Smalley came from thanks for that!

Yeah we had three guys that looked like they were can't miss shortstops. Lewis still has a chance to get there but with two years away from the game he has been a forgotten man to this point. Gordon never really filled out and never really developed much power. He made his share of errors at short and given his slight frame seemed to have trouble making some of the throws from short at least IMO. Javier never developed beyond that one good season and unless he has a breakout this year feels like he is who he is which would be AAAA player at best. We even had Palacios mixed in there until we traded him supposedly because we had a surplus at the Shortstop position. Man things can change in a hurry. At any rate I can't remember a more than average to below average shortstop coming out of the system since correct me if I am wrong but maybe Roy Smalley. Gagne and Punto were good defenders at the position but not that great with the bat. It is a position they have historically had a hard time with. Can they get lucky and have Lewis take over and do well? Hard to say but there isn't much in the system behind him right now.

This is another good writeup! Thanks for mentioning how far he fell during the season. He was two different pitchers last year. He started off in May with 19 innings pitched a 2.35 ERA with a WHIP of 1.16 and 31K's in those 19 innings. Really dominant for a 20 year old at AA. Then it all fell apart. Not sure exactly what the issues were but have to say it does give one pause. Was he injured or the arm tired after the first 6 weeks of the season? It seems like he had time to recover over the Olympics and yet he was even worse once he returned. So at this point which guy is he. The dominant K machine that started last year or the guy giving up hits, walks and runs like crazy? I don't know. All I do know is he is young with plenty of time to improve and he has shown flashes of dominance so no reason he can't get back there. He was a pretty big part of the Berrios deal so we need him to work out. Hoping for a big year that puts my fears to rest.

I have already been looking at the players early but as you said things will change once the high school and college seasons end. Still, looking at where things stand right now there seems to be about 6 position players that could go 1-6. I think it is going to be hard to move off of Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Jacob Berry, Brooks Lee and Jace Jung. Except for Green they all appear to have 60 hit tools or better and Jones, Green and Lee all play up the middle positions. Depending on how you feel about Chase Delauter it could be 7 hitters in a row. Of course the Twins pick 8th The Twins could be in a position to pick the best pitcher on the board when the time comes and yet I have this feeling they would like to go with a position player in that spot instead. I have to believe there will be another prep or college bat that rises up boards so the Twins might still have a chance to grab an elite bat but if they don't I would like to see them select one of three lefties in Jackson Ferris who is 6'4" with projection remaining. Brandon Berriera who has three plus pitches and good command so a strike thrower that the Twins seem to like develop or maybe take a chance on the unhittable Slider of Conner Prielipp who will be returning from TJ surgery. It could really be a good spot to get a good pitching prospect but the risk is always high with those picks and the Twins seem to like to develop later round arms rather than taking them early. Right now though that is way the the draft looks like it will fall unless maybe the Cubs go pitching at number 6 but I have to believe given the talented bats left they won't go with an arm but it wouldn't hurt Chicago to get started on building out a future rotation as their farm doesn't have much for arms at all. IMO ideally I hope an up middle player with elite upside will fall to them but given the way things stack up that looks unlikely. I will be watching to see what you come up with Jeremy and I hope this ends up a monster good draft for the Twins as they need it.

Very nice writeup!! If healthy I see him as the pitching prospect most likely to debut in the Twins rotation this year. His main competition would be Balazovich IMO but with Winder WHIP\ability to throw strikes he still looks the most ready. Certainly Sands and Strotman could have something to say about that if Strotman harnesses control and Sands stays healthy they could be in the mix as well just more ifs with those two. Other guys might be ranked higher but he looks the most ready to me.

I have to agree with you and I am pretty jaded so likely biased when it comes to the shortstop position. It seems to be a position where you can't be weak in any area of your player profile. Too weak of an arm (i.e. Polanco, Martin) and you get moved off it. Strong arm but unable to consistently make good throws from the position (i.e. Gordon) and suddenly a player doesn't look so good there. Start as a 45 or 50 runner in high school and most all of those guys end up moving off the position. It is a really tough position to play and seems like players that are tooled up have the best chance to stay there. There are a lot of things to like about Miller and having the footwork and arm to make good throws is a big part of the position and the most likely reason Law has him as high as he is. And yet when the best thing he has to say about Miller is "he should be a guy whose performance always seems to rise above his tools". That isn't exactly a ringing endorsement to me. So given all the baggage of the Twins rarely finding players who can play the position plus the fact Miller is currently a player with mainly average tools count me in the biased camp that see's it as unlikely that he stays at short. I know I have a pretty negative lens and I hope he proves me wrong but I guess we will have wait and see how things ultimately turn out.