Richie the Rally Goat

It’s Thanksgiving week and in that spirit, I’d like to ask our community, “What are you thankful for?” I’ll start: I’m thankful for all of you, our Twins Daily community. You give me so much food for thought. You give me an outlet to discuss my passions, my fears, my skepticism. Our community makes Twins fandom great, and I haven’t found another one like it. I’m thankful for our moderation and community leadership team, we get to work together to help make this site as conducive to robust Twins Fandom discussion as possible. I’m thankful for our founders/owners who keep the lights on, John, Nick, Seth, Parker & Brock I’m thankful for our writers who continuously churn out tons of great new content for the front page. Last, but not least, I’m thankful for our blogs and bloggers who write awesome work. One blog post I’d like to point out as a moderator, was written by one of our moderator/community leadership team written 5 years ago. Posting styles discussing our frustrations about the Twins - In My Opinion - Twins Daily. I encourage our community members (myself included) to try a longer form of writing. What are you interested in? What gets your blood pressure up? If I took the running theme of my posts, the partial thoughts, frustrated rants, one-off comments and collected them up, I could write something longer form… maybe. I dunno… I’m unsure What I write, might suck, it might unravel as soon as I put it out there. I don’t really know how to write prose. But that’s the power of our community and why I am so thankful for you. We as a community will offer candid feedback, support, encouragement, disagreement, and perspective. I don’t know if blogging will work for me, or if I have that much to say, but maybe I’ll give it a shot. I encourage you all to do the same. How about you, what are you thankful for?

Fascinating!

It's not my $800k. $800k is 0.6% of the $130m projected payroll on our fun roster calculators. JP can scrape this up in his couch cushions. Most of the board cheered when the the FO guaranteed the pay of every minor leaguer in the Twins farm (I strongly supported too) and that was like $4m and that didn't stop the FO from making any free agent moves either, 5X what we're currently talking about. It's going to be OK, a mediocre 4th or 5th outfielder is going to be OK

The simple explanation is that each negotiation is unique and irrelevant to other negotiations. Ash said it best "There is no $20m"

In 2021 league average batting average was .244, however there’s more to hitting than batting average. There’ slugging %, on base %, OPS. I prefer wRC+ as a measure of how good a hitter is, as it scores contribution to run creation on a 100 is average scale. So Jake Cave has a career 94 wRC+ relative to other hitters, the sum of his doubles, singles, slugging, walks, etc is approximately 6% below league average. 10% is usually the threshold for me to say someone is slightly above or below average.

If you want other players to get reps at CF, why have them ride the pine in the bigs? Isn’t it better for Martin or Celestino to play every day in AA/AAA than not play in the bigs

Do you have any objective evidence that 800k is a bad contract for an average hitting, average fielding thoroughly Joe Bauers 4th outfielder? In what way will this maneuver impede the FO’s ability to acquire better players? Why is this bad?

Wade statistically speaking is almost exactly equal to Cave as a fielder. in terms of hitting Wade’s cumulative wRC+ of 111 is better than Cave’s 94, but not a ton better. Cave also posted a 49 wRC+ in 21 as a lost injury season that weighs down his 94 cumulative. they aren’t that different of players, statistically speaking. im not thrilled with Cave either, and another Lefty outfielder has me scratching my head… but I don’t get the angst here

Really good post! Well written/articulated I agree with you of the enormous opportunity in front of the FO and the risks involved for this offseason. I think about what it might look like trading Buxton or Garver (or both) for prospects that could be a package for Frankie Montas? The As don’t want Buxton or Garver, but do have pitching to spare and want to reduce payroll. A trade like that and a free agent like Ray on a 5+ year 100+ mil contract, 2022 would hurt less and ‘23 might be given a head start because more of the hitters in your scenario have big league experience than the pitchers. I would classify it as a rebuild (to Cody’s point) but a quicker rebuild than the Orioles saga.

JP has publicly stated he wants to extend Buxton, who knows what gets discussed behind closed doors? Pohlads know and understand PR as well as anyone in Minnesota

Center Field! 2019-2021

Hamilton was 2 outs above average last year, has been around 4-6 the last few years. He ain’t what he used to be anymore (12-16 in the teens). Cave has been 0 or 1 OAA the last couple years.

Larnach, Kepler, Kirilloff and Cave all Lefties. Kirilloff figures to mainly play first, so Cave is insurance for Kepler/Larnach? 3-4 lefty corner outfielders is kinda nuts, especially if they traded Buxton and the only righty is Rooker

Jorge Polanco is my favorite Twin. Seeing him healthy and playing up to his potential was salve for my soul in that miserable 2021 season. Trading him would crush me (much like so many fans with Buxton). That being said, if you’re committed to the rebuild, Polanco, Buxton and Garver are your biggest trade chips left (that aren’t going to be long for the next wave). I appreciate the idea on merit and plausibility, but I wouldn’t like it

What leverage do players have over the owners, outside of lost games? The players will most certainly try to drag this out as long as possible to make the owners sweat.

Scope definitely matters a ton. Looking at top 50 vs MLB as a whole vs MLB and MiLB... but yeah, it definitely adds an element to the risk/reward calculation. There must be some selection bas... cruddy players don't stay major leaguers very long

THIS!!! 1000 times THiS!

Berrios wasn't concerned at all with his stability prior to the trade, and stated openly he was looking for a big payday in free agency. Reportedly he was shocked to be traded. After such a shock, priorities change. The Blue Jays had to extend Berrios, they were going to lose him for nothing after 2022 and not have the prospect to fill his shoes. You are correct, the Twins were not going to pony up 7 years 150 mil or 6 years 120, regardless... but we don't know what it would have cost the Twins to extend him. and the assumption of the same deal he got from the Blue Jays doesn't fit what we know of the situation at the time of the trade. What happened after the trade is independent of what happened before.

Blame Bill James - How Do Baseball Players Age?: Investigating the Age-27 Theory - Baseball ProspectusBaseball Prospectus - if 27 is peak, then it is inherently decline. Hitters tend to age better than pitchers, and most of the data is more around attrition rate than actual age... Basically the older a player gets the higher the likelihood of career ending or altering injury.

In terms of faith in the FO allocation of spending, I understand and respect that skepticism and am starting to align that way myself (though I waffle). The evidence thus far fits the narrative that this FO "likes to spend nickels on washed up old has-beens who have one statistic they like" certainly has merit, but they did sign Donaldson and aren't afraid of making a trade. The reports on the Twins being "nowhere close" are really hard to accept at face value. That reporting always comes from sources who have an agenda. If the Berrios side starts the negotiation with "12 years, 250 mil", well then no, the Twins were never going to be close. Even if the contract that Berrios signed is the objective going rate for Berrios, he probably wouldn't have signed that deal with the Twins, not because he had some gripe with the FO or he doesn't like "us" or didn't want to be a Twin anymore, because priorities change. In the blink of an eye... If Berrios had snapped his UCL in July, he probably would have signed that contract with the Twins, but would the Twins? No. Priorities change based on the negotiators needs, desires and what they have. Those things change

Awesome! well earned Griffin!

The fallacy is assuming that Berrios would have signed that contract with the Twins. That is not an assumption I am willing to make. My assumption is that the terms of an extension with Berrios for the Twins would have been different because the two parties had different priorities and different BATNAs (best alternative to negotiated agreement) than Berrios and Blue Jays. I don’t think John is wrong, just framing it incompletely. It’s not Berrios at 6 years 120 mil or the Two Prospects. It’s Berrios at an unknown contract or the Two Prospects. The uncertainty of both scenarios is pertinent. I’d probably take the trade too. I’m pretty risk averse, and two lotto tickets plus the assumed budget freed up (as things sit total freed up space is probably 40-50 mil) is worth more IFF(to Brocks point) the FO improves their ability to identify free agents to sign. Their track record thus far is pretty poor on pitching.

Correct-ish Rick Eckstein, David’s brother https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/pirates-hire-rick-eckstein-as-hitting-coach.html

And Pot Luck. I hear Thad is bringing a crock pot of sloppy joes

It always takes two to tango. Asking if you would give Berrios the deal he got from the Blue Jays ignores what the bargaining positions were at the time between Berrios and the Twins. If the Twins and Berrios were ever close on a contract agreement with Berrios, would they have traded him? Probably not. What did Berrios want in the negotiation with the Twins? We don't know, but can guess. Salary commensurate with a top starting pitcher in MLB. Length of contract in excess of 6 years? To test the free agent Market What did the Twins want? again, don't know but can guess Salary perceived as a bargain relative to the mid tier of starting pitchers Length of contract less than 4 years One less rotation spot to fill In neither of those buckets were organizational stability, durability, longevity. I don't believe those were levers valued, after all, those were already held by the parties with Maeda still healthy at the trade deadline. What were the best alternatives for Berrios and the Twins? Berrios - hit free agency, he openly stated he wanted to test free agency, he did not get his best alternative Twins - trade Berrios for prospects - the Twins got their best alternative but did not get their primary wish of getting a bargain for a mid-tier pitcher in Berrios Post trade, Berrios negotiation desires may have changed. He no longer had the stability in his career. He had spent his entire 9 year working career with one company. Now the reality of his fungibility to his employer is real. With that in mind, what might his desires have changed to? Stability Length of Contract in excess of 6 years Salary Commensurate with high end starting pitcher Because they made a deal, the Blue Jays' bargaining desires must have been pretty close to Berrios', maybe something like: Durability Stability Salary Commensurate as a bargain for a high end starting pitcher Lets see with the negotiations upcoming for Free Agents and trades if the Twin's perceived negotiation values have changed