Richie the Rally Goat

Good post! The absolute quiet about this is kind of surprising. Makes me wonder if Joe is contemplating retirement. As with others, I'd look to re-sign Joe on the Super-Cheap.

this... needs to get his change up improved enough to rely on it for lefties like he does his curve for righties.

this team doesn’t currently have enough pitching to win a 5 game series. Not even close. Pitchers and catchers report in what, 5 weeks? Time is tight to make 2-3 pitching acquisitions. If you’re waiting for the trade deadline it’ll cost a lot more than the Twins can afford.

i think we are in the midst of a societal change and I hope the Twins and MLB come out right away on the progressive side of the issue. Historically that has not been the case with the MLB, but if I voice my opinion and my spend and others do to, we can help persuade the powers that be to look at things that I believe to be universal. All people should be treated with respect. All people should have agency over their bodies, minds, and beliefs. All people should stand up and protect these rights for themselves and for others.

“Carl is dead, they work for his son Bill.“ jeepers! I got the wrong brother in my comment.... getting older sucks... I went back over the OP and the comments, and I think the idea of an adversarial relationship should be addressed. Working in a consumer business arm of a very large organization, we always viewed it as codependent. We need our consumers and our job was to make products that enhanced the consumers’ lives. I can’t imagine Jim Pohlad feels it’s adversarial. I’m sure every review is, what is the baseball operation doing to make the product more appealing?

Well said!

theres still 5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. It’s a tall order, but not impossible

i don’t think Archer, or Cobb, or Lynn or Darvish are individually a Panacea. One of them will help but not solve. Personally I’d like a trade for James Paxton (maybe Gordon and Enns plus) and sign Cobb. That would take this rotation and as a biproduct the bullpen, miles ahead. With his injury history, Paxton might be had relatively inexpensively. I’m of a firm belief that this team needs two starters and they can’t be acquired using the same means. Can’t both be free agents. Can’t both be trades.

A good framework for valuing prospects. http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ Here’s what fangraphs did with it https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-dream-up-a-michael-fulmer-trade/ Here’s what a Brewers blog 216 stitches did with it. I like the Brewers comp to the Twins. https://216stitches.org/2017/12/15/chris-archer-milwaukee-brewers-trade/ How does this shape possible trade scenarios? I think Gordon, Romero and Granite plus, might get it done.

Not sure where to put this, but it’s a blog I’ve never seen before weighing in http://therunnersports.com/twins-must-change-to-handle-miguel-sano-situation-correctly/

May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts. This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

”exuding quiet confidence” is what my mentor taught me in regards to the negotiation strategy. It tells a narrative “I’m confident in my organization’s attraction to you (the free agent). You (free agent) go talk to my competitors because I know you’ll keep your promise to come talk to me before you make the final decision and I’m confident you’ll sign with me” Rarely does negotiation happen on your schedule, especially when the other party holds the upper hand.

negotiation can be very fickle, especially with different cultures. Staying in conversation and gaining a feel for where the negotiation is starting is critical. Too eager or too low of an offer and you’re out before it even starts. Too high and you look desperate or sign the guy for more than he would have signed for. Since the big boys appear to be shedding payroll it makes sense to be patient. I’d still like to see an additional (lower cost FA or trade) move made to bolster the middle of the rotation.

ask the Rockies about that

As recently as 2001 the Minnesota Twins and Montreal Expos were subject to contraction from the MLB. Fans (and Governments/the pubic who fund the building of their ballparks) do impact ownership in a real way. In a more general way, why would an organization advertise in an empty ballpark or on a TV station no one watches? Why do you suppose Midwest Sports Channel no longer exists? Why do you suppose the Twins are back on WCCO? MLB is a consumer industry. If eventually all water ends up in the ocean by some means - so does all MLB money making fundamentally end up deriving from consumers. Be it food, tickets, scalpers, being subjected to advertising consumer goods... it all boils down to Us. Without Us, none of this, including Twins Daily, exist.

Carl is dead, they work for his son Bill.

He's massively under paid to the metric, but to the market I'm not so sure. If Dozier really was seriously dangled as trade bait, wouldn't that extreme team friendly contract garner more interest? I hope the man gets paid, he's certainly earned it. I'm in agreement with "Hydrogen Dioxide Visage", 2 years with a healthy signing bonus seems about right. He went a bit bigger than I would have - I'd target 10-12 mil signing bonus and 28 mil. For reference, Daniel Murphy is on a 3 year 37 mil contract that he signed as a younger player. If you take Polanco's .723 OPS and stick him in the list of 2nd Basemen, he'd still be right around MLB average. While a steep drop off from Dozier, there's potential for improved fielding over an aging Dozier. This gives the Twins some leverage with Gordon close to ready at SS.

Is it bad that this is the guy I trust most in the Twins bullpen? that .420 FIP could really haunt - agree with BW, ability to translate success and heat into Ks is critical for Busenitz success.

If Giminez the Napoli signing would be at the cost of Grossman and Vargas too, unless you’d release Escobar or Adrianza. I wanna see a left side of the infield of Napoli and Sano.

I think the OP has made a good comparison of Levine's work to Beane. With a new FO none of us really know what to expect, so finding models to pattern decision making can help us all make better informed decisions. Good discussion starter. If I had the time to research it, I'd be interested to see a cross tab of the main MLB talent acquisition philosophies by major tenants and mark out what moves the FO has made by how they best fit. Kind of a Castro signing falls under the analytics tennant of the Rays, Rodney is a market inefficiency signing tenant of moneyball etc. On the hitting side, the money ball approach makes a lot of sense. There's a strong core and some depth coming not far behind the current ML team. Taking roster risks on market inefficiencies like Napoli or Adrianza can fill some gaps and mine additional value from situational usage. If you can afford the roster spot, Napoli or Adrianza could be very valuable to the team to win a division or traded at the deadline. If they bust, you've got backup available if you need to cut bait. On the pitching side, the issue with the money ball approach is depth. The Twins just don't have enough high level close to major league ready starting pitching, and the minor league relief pitching is looking more and more suspect. If Duke or Fernandez succeed, great you've got something. If they don't, there's no one I'd feel confident in turning to for the 8th inning setup man. All of your bullets are currently loaded into the magazine. If you need a pipeline of talent to backfill the free agent gambles, you can't very well trade them away for a front line starter, can you? SS, Catcher, and Pitcher are the prospect currency. They have a good supply of SS; but C and P are woefully thin. The way to improve the ML roster and create depth is to add to the front of the queue via free agency. Sure, no one wants another 20 mil on the roster just soaking up resources, unable to move on because you've got too much invested. You can't have 10 guys on the 25 man roster making 1 mil or less each not providing value either; the 2014 Twins can attest. Once depth is created via free agency, then trade some surplus for the mid rotation with some upside type, Archer and Cole are the big names, but there are others that we just don't know about that might come a bit cheaper in prospect capital.

Yes, Miguel Sano struck out at a higher rate than Aaron Judge, but in 2017 had an above average batting average. League batting average 600 PAs (Sano didn't qualify) is .254 ,where Sano hit .264, at least in he solid range. His on-base percentage of .354 is top quartile. The inefficiency is in their ability to keep him healthy. 600 plate appearances worth of Miguel Sano anywhere on the diamond is worth more than 483 plate appearances at 3B. I have no idea if moving the man to DH would have any impact, but it seems there's evidence as 1B and DH are the two positions aging sluggers retire at.

3b once a week, 1b once a week, DH 3-4 days a week. Injuries, inter league and 2019 covered

Many have bemoaned ideation as the most difficult phase of writing. As this is supposed to be a community, and most professional long form and script writing is team written.... maybe there should be some teamwork? Maybe some drop boxes and private forums for small groups to brainstorm? It goes back to management here as well but I imagine that is solved to some extent feretting out the thread.

I understand Twinsdaily is a mid market club that needs to build a farm system rather than sign free agents. Maybe TD needs to swing a trade? Multi prospect swap with another Twins community?

indeed, if you miss, it hurts, but if you really hit, several years of very high quality certainly help more than just one.