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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Wins, ERA,and “Starter Saves” are team metrics, not individual accomplishment metrics. He won other awards and was a good pitcher on a good team doesn’t clear that threshold for me.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    in 2018 May or Romero could be a top 25 MLB starting pitcher for the Twins? Having that upside, and having that upside in 2018 are two different things. The window for the core to compete is finite. Can’t wait for someday
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    What are Falvey and Levine going to bulk up spend by 24 to 44 million (96 mil up to 120 to 140 mil) on, if not an impact starter? Starting rotation still has woefully little depth or ceiling. Yes they need an impact reliever too, but it seems possible they already have them in the minor league system.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    he has shown the ability in the past to be a good starting pitcher, 4-5 innings at a crack, but doesn’t coming back from Tommy John give you some pause? He was never going to be an “Ace” but maybe a lights out bullpen arm or 3-4 starter. Could he improve last year’s staff? Absolutely Will he do so opening day? 50-50 at best. Will he put in a 150 inning season? No chance
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    this is the very essence of the importance of sample size. It’s the foundation of statistical analysis. You will always find variance like this inside of a season among all players. This just Gibson. His season on the whole was in line with his career. You take the good with the bad.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Having 5 starting pitchers better than league average xFIP isn't realistic? The average team uses in excess of 10 starters in a season. Sure the bulk of your starts come from the opening day 5, but if you expect to be a "good team" I would think 4/5 of the starting 5 would be better than league average. According to Fangraphs, Gibson's FIP was 4.85 vs league average 4.4. Better than Gibby still has some room to get up to league average.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Even the LOOGYs are high contact types.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    sign or trade for 2 starters and a reliever, and 2 or 3 of Jay, Chargois, Burdi, Romero, Gonsalves and May become significant contributors and you’ve turned over half your pitching staff. You can make significant improvement when you turn over half your pitching staff
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    ability is never measured in isolation. It’s always measured in outcomes of plays. Outcomes of plays are impacted by dozens of things
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    statistically the “bad nights” should normalize over a season. It’s why fielding metrics are preferred to be viewed as a season stat. Still, “should” and “do” are different. Sometimes the bad nights accumulate enough that they become more the norm than the exception
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    what about variables like health, field conditions, positioning tendencies by coaching staff changing, pitching staff changes or opposing teams changing base running tactics?
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, the Astros train has sailed. Are we expected to have a 14 year rebuild and or trade away from the young core? I struggle with either idea
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    this. The Twins need to add two starters, one should be aim high “Ace” type and one should be quality mid rotation type. Cobb/Darvish, Santana, Berrios, Lynn, Mejia/Gibson would a really nice rotation
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    seems like buy starters, churn and burn relievers
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Naw, I buy a shirsey, I get a shirsey, I got what I paid for. I buy a ticket to go to a game, I get entrance to the game, they play the game, I got what I paid for. You can’t buy a ticket and expect a win. That’s not how it works in sports. Movies, sure the antagonist wins. Matt Damon always wins in the movies. Ervin Santana doesn’t always win in real life. Now if you are unsatisfied with the product you can not buy a ticket, but you don’t get to dictate what a good product is. It’s not your money. Even with a publicly funded team, it’s still not your money, and you still don’t have a direct say. It’s the public’s money and the public has governance written by elected or selected representatives that dictates how the money is spent. The USA isn’t a democracy. It’s a republic. The Minnesota Twins are not a democracy, nor are they a public club. They are a privately held company. You have the choice to patronize or not, but you don’t get say in how things happen.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    lets not forget Romero, Mejia and Gonsalvez. Odds are much better for those guys to be relievers than starters, lots of upside there.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, bullpen is important, but disagree that the Twins need to add more to the bullpen than rotation. The Twins have a lot more upper minor league talent that is, or could be high-end bullpen talent than they have upper minor league high-end rotation talent. Starters become relievers but not vice-versa. Relief Corps does need help, but it might already be in the system, but I don’t think the starting help is already in the system.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    my God! The man quotes the run expectancy table and then says I don’t care what the math says, I go by gut
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think the dilution of talent among two additional teams could be problematic. I also wonder about the mechanics and strategy of an expansion draft... In context of the international expansion of the league, I think Montreal and Mexico City make the most sense. Portland is too small, as is Seattle to support teams in both cities, just ask the NBA.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    the problem with the first deal is it didn’t buy his first year or two of free agency. Now, he’s already declining defensively. Extending him 3-4 years makes no sense. 1-2 years extension makes perfect sense, but is entirely unrealistic. Brian Dozier wants and rightfully deserves a long term payday. With the needs at pitcher and the likelihood of the contract becoming painful before the Twins truly contend, I can see why the FO would pass. Not that I want to see him leave after 2018, I want to see him leave after 2019 or 2020.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Leadership clearly has value in sports and in professions. Much like professions, sports struggles to try and fail at quantifying leadership. BD has been outspoken about GM decisions in the past. This year's comments regarding the mini-sell followed suit, however his public message this year was a little more mature. Clearly unhappy with the situation, but more focused on a "defiantly positive" outcome, rather than a feeling of being slighted. He was more team behavior focused rather than individual emotion focused. While still struggling with quantification, I feel like his improved leadership behaviors more than balance out his slight fielding deficiency. Man it's great to see him grip it and rip it. 34 home run season following a 42 home run season!
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'm scared off by the injuries to Buxton and Sano, which is probably the impetus for them to deal as well. So I'd lock them both up with the hopes that they would A - stay healthy B - have an impetus to negotiate Rosario I'd definitely lock up - if the selectivity at the plate is real, he's a middle of the order bat and a good fielder with a track record of staying healthy. If it's not real, he's still good player with the opportunity to continue to refine that skill. Berrios I would not lock up, injuries are too large of a concern. Need to churn and burn pitching.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, but it might take you all offseason to get these three deals done. As important as they are, multitasking would be ill-advised. It would certainly make it easier to acquire pitching at the 2018 trade deadline and next offseason.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Gibson might not be a tale of two halves, as Gibson's season as a whole was slightly worse than his career stats (Fangraphs source) Career ERA 4.70 xFIP 4.21 2017 ERA 5.07 xFIP 4.35 His K rate, BB rate, and Hard Hit rate were all elevated in 2017 over his career. Rather than two seasons, to me it looks like the second half was just his normal streakiness throughout his career. He is what he is. Maybe he should be resigned, but he absolutely should be on the 5th starter bubble in spring training. I'd think about non-tendering him and sign him to a lower contract later.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170629/outfield-shifts-have-helped-twins-defense
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