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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Even the LOOGYs are high contact types.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    sign or trade for 2 starters and a reliever, and 2 or 3 of Jay, Chargois, Burdi, Romero, Gonsalves and May become significant contributors and you’ve turned over half your pitching staff. You can make significant improvement when you turn over half your pitching staff
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    ability is never measured in isolation. It’s always measured in outcomes of plays. Outcomes of plays are impacted by dozens of things
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    statistically the “bad nights” should normalize over a season. It’s why fielding metrics are preferred to be viewed as a season stat. Still, “should” and “do” are different. Sometimes the bad nights accumulate enough that they become more the norm than the exception
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    what about variables like health, field conditions, positioning tendencies by coaching staff changing, pitching staff changes or opposing teams changing base running tactics?
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, the Astros train has sailed. Are we expected to have a 14 year rebuild and or trade away from the young core? I struggle with either idea
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    this. The Twins need to add two starters, one should be aim high “Ace” type and one should be quality mid rotation type. Cobb/Darvish, Santana, Berrios, Lynn, Mejia/Gibson would a really nice rotation
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    seems like buy starters, churn and burn relievers
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Naw, I buy a shirsey, I get a shirsey, I got what I paid for. I buy a ticket to go to a game, I get entrance to the game, they play the game, I got what I paid for. You can’t buy a ticket and expect a win. That’s not how it works in sports. Movies, sure the antagonist wins. Matt Damon always wins in the movies. Ervin Santana doesn’t always win in real life. Now if you are unsatisfied with the product you can not buy a ticket, but you don’t get to dictate what a good product is. It’s not your money. Even with a publicly funded team, it’s still not your money, and you still don’t have a direct say. It’s the public’s money and the public has governance written by elected or selected representatives that dictates how the money is spent. The USA isn’t a democracy. It’s a republic. The Minnesota Twins are not a democracy, nor are they a public club. They are a privately held company. You have the choice to patronize or not, but you don’t get say in how things happen.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    lets not forget Romero, Mejia and Gonsalvez. Odds are much better for those guys to be relievers than starters, lots of upside there.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, bullpen is important, but disagree that the Twins need to add more to the bullpen than rotation. The Twins have a lot more upper minor league talent that is, or could be high-end bullpen talent than they have upper minor league high-end rotation talent. Starters become relievers but not vice-versa. Relief Corps does need help, but it might already be in the system, but I don’t think the starting help is already in the system.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    my God! The man quotes the run expectancy table and then says I don’t care what the math says, I go by gut
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think the dilution of talent among two additional teams could be problematic. I also wonder about the mechanics and strategy of an expansion draft... In context of the international expansion of the league, I think Montreal and Mexico City make the most sense. Portland is too small, as is Seattle to support teams in both cities, just ask the NBA.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    the problem with the first deal is it didn’t buy his first year or two of free agency. Now, he’s already declining defensively. Extending him 3-4 years makes no sense. 1-2 years extension makes perfect sense, but is entirely unrealistic. Brian Dozier wants and rightfully deserves a long term payday. With the needs at pitcher and the likelihood of the contract becoming painful before the Twins truly contend, I can see why the FO would pass. Not that I want to see him leave after 2018, I want to see him leave after 2019 or 2020.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Leadership clearly has value in sports and in professions. Much like professions, sports struggles to try and fail at quantifying leadership. BD has been outspoken about GM decisions in the past. This year's comments regarding the mini-sell followed suit, however his public message this year was a little more mature. Clearly unhappy with the situation, but more focused on a "defiantly positive" outcome, rather than a feeling of being slighted. He was more team behavior focused rather than individual emotion focused. While still struggling with quantification, I feel like his improved leadership behaviors more than balance out his slight fielding deficiency. Man it's great to see him grip it and rip it. 34 home run season following a 42 home run season!
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'm scared off by the injuries to Buxton and Sano, which is probably the impetus for them to deal as well. So I'd lock them both up with the hopes that they would A - stay healthy B - have an impetus to negotiate Rosario I'd definitely lock up - if the selectivity at the plate is real, he's a middle of the order bat and a good fielder with a track record of staying healthy. If it's not real, he's still good player with the opportunity to continue to refine that skill. Berrios I would not lock up, injuries are too large of a concern. Need to churn and burn pitching.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, but it might take you all offseason to get these three deals done. As important as they are, multitasking would be ill-advised. It would certainly make it easier to acquire pitching at the 2018 trade deadline and next offseason.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Gibson might not be a tale of two halves, as Gibson's season as a whole was slightly worse than his career stats (Fangraphs source) Career ERA 4.70 xFIP 4.21 2017 ERA 5.07 xFIP 4.35 His K rate, BB rate, and Hard Hit rate were all elevated in 2017 over his career. Rather than two seasons, to me it looks like the second half was just his normal streakiness throughout his career. He is what he is. Maybe he should be resigned, but he absolutely should be on the 5th starter bubble in spring training. I'd think about non-tendering him and sign him to a lower contract later.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170629/outfield-shifts-have-helped-twins-defense
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    This is a different narrative than how this line of discussion started. Initially you posited that Falvine was trying to save face but get away from Molitor. Now it's all in Molitor's hands? Agreed, the time this is taking to work through indicates a sticking point in what should be a pretty routine contract negotiation. As others have said, at this point I believe Molitor might be mulling over retirement.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    im tracking with you, it seems more plausible with what, 36-ish hours passed that this may well be what's happening. I still don't get the mechanics. Low ball offer leaves a lot of evidence and of course the counter offers and etc" A discussion with PM that goes "look Paul, we're making you an offer to save face for all of us, here's how it's gonna go...." has all kinds of issues, not least of which is Falvine trying to change the organization so offering the guy a different job in the org follows the same logic, and carries all of the same "club" mentality.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    depends on the situation, possible, though unlikely, for a double play on the sac attempt. For the sake of the discussion here, it all depends on the discussions Molitor and Levine have had. Do they agree on the strategy and tactics based on the data? I'm not sure they do, though that might be some wishcasting on my part. To me the data says station to station is the highest likelihood to score multiple runs in an inning/game/season. That's not to say you should never steal, just be selective. That is to say should almost never bunt. It's almost always a wasted out, even with Buxtons fastest right handed home to first time.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    interesting, seems plausible but how would one go about orchestrating this devious plot?
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don't believe there is any doubt in Molitor's leadership and communication skills. He is well regarded on those two skills, and this season showcased them well. I think it comes own to Molitor's ability (or willingness and ability to learn how) to implement the vision of the front office. The rumors have ben that Molitor has put in a great effort to learn the new FO's tools and align to the vision. I wonder if effort and willingness to learn is enough.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'd prefer to watch 3 other outfielders play over Granite, but agreed, he's certainly a good 4th/5th outfielder.
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